2024 NBA Draft Thread

[crows2]

i will say again, the two guys that have the most potential to actually change that top of this class are Buzelis and Darlan if it comes together for them, they are the only ones with the raw talent, ceiling and archetype that could potentially warrant #1 and #2 picks (which is where I have them ranked now as placeholders)...other than that we'll see.

I respect your work more than some on this board, but I think we've found Clyde's irrationally high prospect of 2024! Darlan joins the esteemed ranks of Scottie Lewis, Max Christie and Dariq Whitehead as middle of the road guard prospects who Clyde rates far higher than everyone else. With all due respect, I wonder if it's time for you to rethink how you evaluate this archetype?

[Hal14]

Darlan has played in 14 games now and has not looked at all like a draftable prospect.

[clyde21]

i will say again, the two guys that have the most potential to actually change that top of this class are Buzelis and Darlan if it comes together for them, they are the only ones with the raw talent, ceiling and archetype that could potentially warrant #1 and #2 picks (which is where I have them ranked now as placeholders)...other than that we'll see.

I respect your work more than some on this board, but I think we've found Clyde's irrationally high prospect of 2024! Darlan joins the esteemed ranks of Scottie Lewis, Max Christie and Dariq Whitehead as middle of the road guard prospects who Clyde rates far higher than everyone else. With all due respect, I wonder if it's time for you to rethink how you evaluate this archetype?

Darlan is just a placeholder for now just because I love the ceiling and potential, I agree he hasn't played well at all and I don't expect him to be anywhere near my top 5 when it's all said and done if he keeps this up.

[clyde21]

Sheyer is a much better recruiter than coach

[FarBeyondDriven]

Isaiah Collier is a confusing prospect.

Good size like Ant, solid build like Bledsoe, questionable playmaking like Cade.

I can see him becoming really good, but there is a huge chance that he becomes a less talented Cade, who is already not that talented from a point guard half court perspective. Prospects with huge turnover red flags scare me so much. Collier here is throwing the ball away up to 7 times in college! Negative assist to turnover ratio like Cade in college.

what Collier has over Cade is that he has an elite first step and can take guys off the dribble without needing the pick n roll. So he'll be able to ISO where Cade can't unless it's a mismatch by accident or high screen. Because they don't run the pick n roll as much or well in college you're not seeing Collier at his best. Collier will be most similar to guards like Booker, Michell and Edwards. He'll be a demon in the pick n roll and get assists off of that and when he drives and kicks in ISO. This is ideal. He's a great PG prospect because of this. His turnovers will therefore be way less. But I guess I can understand some of doubts and comparison to Cade based off both their college tapes.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Darlan has played in 14 games now and has not looked at all like a draftable prospect.

I think Darlan (and Sane) made a huge mistake going to Ignite where the more talented wings, Holland and Buzelis, would steal their minutes and touches, similar to how Foster, McCain shouldn't have stayed at Duke after Proctor and Roach returned and Sheppard and Dillingham shouldn't have gone to Kentucky once Wagner committed. Too many guys, all playing the same position for the same team will always at best, force them to take turns having solid games, or at worse, leave someone left out. Either way, they hurt their draft prospects.

Here's some footage from NBA Academy that at least shows him on the floor, shooting, passing etc which is sadly more than what you'll get from Ignite

Watch on YouTube

I think he's listed at 6'6" but he appears to have grown and might be 6'8". He's very similar to Mikal Bridges and like Mikal he would have probably benefitted from going to a solid college program and developing over a few years. He's very raw. This is arguably the best international class in draft history and Darlan is one of the intriguing prospects from it but he might be the worst of the bunch. He's not in serious contention to be a lottery pick and I doubt he'd be a first rounder at this point but he looks draftable and it's still very early.

[MemphisX]

Watch on YouTube

[Jamaaliver]

Read on Twitter

[Jamaaliver]

What is the player comp most associated with this kid?

Read on Twitter

[Hal14]

There's a separate thread for Sheppard. But this is interesting..

Read on Twitter

[azcatz11]

Shepp is getting way too much hype. Dillingham is the player that jumps off the screen when you watch them play

[eminence]

Sheppard can shoot it, no argument there. I can see a Seth comp.

Steph... not so much.

[The-Power]

What is the player comp most associated with this kid?

I don't think there's a great comparison but I see a lot of Haliburton in him – as a prospect, to be clear.

Both were quick passers with good decision-making who consistently make the correct reads without a lot of processing time. Highly accurate shooters and efficient inside the arc but not very aggressive scorers which results in relatively low scoring volume (compared to other top Guard prospects) because they pick their spots carefully. Neither really draws fouls. Neither has the dynamic handles and wiggle typically associated with on-ball creators but they can do just enough in that regard to fairly reliably create for teammates even though they struggle to consistently break defenses down in the half court. Both can play on and off the ball and seamlessly switch between these roles. Both also get a lot of hands on the ball on defense, very disruptive when the ball is in their vicinity.

Naturally, there are differences as well. Haliburton is taller and longer as well as quicker with his strides in space, and I don't see Sheppard as that level of passer at this point. Sheppard, on the other hand, is a considerably better on-ball defender and moves his feet and hips better on that end (he has limitations on defense, for sure, but he sticks with his man and contests much better – how effective he'll be in the NBA remains to be seen). Sheppard's shot is also ‘cleaner’ and more compact which helps him overcome some of the height advantage Haliburton has and should make it easier for him to transition into someone who can shoot coming off screens if need be which isn't Haliburton's game.

Now, just to reiterate: I'm not saying he's going to be the next Haliburton. But that's in large part because Haliburton's development after he entered the NBA has been extraordinary. Even as a prospect, I absolutely loved Haliburton but there's a reason he was a late lottery pick. We'll see if Sheppard can somewhat sustain his current level of play but he's all but guaranteed to put together a Freshman season that dwarfs Haliburton's in comparison and may be up to the level of his Sophomore season. Hence I do think it's possible to compare them as prospects before the draft. How Sheppard develops from there is anyone's guess.

[Chuck Everett]

The Ignite have been playing a lot better collectively over the last six or so games (and they have had a ton of injuries so far - no Mika, Stockton or Abogidi). This seems to have coincided with Buzelis' return to the lineup.

[crows2]

I see Sheppard as an Austin Reaves type, down to the haircut. I think he’ll be a good role player and look good on a good team.

As for Haliburton, I think the only reason he went late-lottery was stupid NBA groupthink. Most reliable scouts thought he was one of the best prospects in that draft, including many here. He was definitely a better prospect than Sheppard (his height and playmaking ability were/are far superior).

[clyde21]

What is the player comp most associated with this kid?

Now, just to reiterate: I'm not saying he's going to be the next Haliburton. But that's in large part because Haliburton's development after he entered the NBA has been extraordinary. Even as a prospect, I absolutely loved Haliburton but there's a reason he was a late lottery pick. We'll see if Sheppard can somewhat sustain his current level of play but he's all but guaranteed to put together a Freshman season that dwarfs Haliburton's in comparison and may be up to the level of his Sophomore season. Hence I do think it's possible to compare them as prospects before the draft. How Sheppard develops from there is anyone's guess.

i don't think what we're seeing now with Hali was that hard to see, I had him top 5 (not a brag, I had RJ Hampton top 5 too for similar reasons and that was a miss)...but with Hali you had a legit 6-5/6-6 cat who had a freak A/TO ratio per his usage, was a two way guy, and at least two position defender, who can hit some 3s

obviously i can't say that I knew he was going to be a 1st or 2nd team caliber guy but it's not that surprising imo

sidenote I hit 3/5 in that class with Ant (easy), Hali and Vassell. Hampton/Onyeka were misses, but at least Onyeka is a semi-functional bench big. Maxey was 7th. Wiseman 10th. Ball 17th (still hate the guy but that's a lol)

[The-Power]

As for Haliburton, I think the only reason he went late-lottery was stupid NBA groupthink. Most reliable scouts thought he was one of the best prospects in that draft, including many here. He was definitely a better prospect than Sheppard (his height and playmaking ability were/are far superior).

That's with a lot of hindsight. I agree with you that he went too late even at the day of the draft and without hindsight. But nobody expected this trajectory from Haliburton including yourself (based on your posts that year) and myself. I actually had Tyrese in my top 5 and as high as #2 and yet my description of him was far from his actual outcome. I'd describe Sheppard in much the same terms as I did Haliburton back then. This isn't to say that he's in the same tier as a prospect (that's tbd for me) but he likely has a similar profile of strengths and weaknesses coming out of college.

i don't think what we're seeing now with Hali was that hard to see, I had him top 5 (not a brag, I had RJ Hampton top 5 too for similar reasons and that was a miss)...but with Hali you had a legit 6-5/6-6 cat who had a freak A/TO ratio per his usage, was a two way guy, and at least two position defender, who can hit some 3s

obviously i can't say that I knew he was going to be a 1st or 2nd team caliber guy but it's not that surprising imo

Eh, I don't think anyone here saw Haliburton as a lead Guard who will one day lead his team in scoring and on-ball shot creation duties. I'm not even saying as a 1st/2nd Team All-NBA player – just as a good starter. Most people expected him to be more of an on-ball/off-ball player who secondary creation duties and someone who keeps the offense flowing, and be a good starter based on that. Even the ones who were high on him (which includes myself). His profile changed as he developed in extraordinary ways.

Also, I feel like we've had this conversation before about defense. Haliburton is one of my absolute favorite players, I've watched him tons in college and for Team USA and I watch a majority of Pacers games these days. And his defense is really bad in the NBA. Off the ball he's fine and he has some good contests with his length on close-outs, but he's a really poor on-ball defender. I expect Sheppard to be a better overall defender pretty much from day one even as I see his limitations as well.

On AST:TO ratio: Haliburton wasn't the same kind of outlier in college as he has been in the NBA these days.

Freshman Haliburton: 4.5:1 AST:TO ratio on 9.2% USG
Sophomore Haliburton: 2.3:1 AST:TO ratio on 20.1% USG

Freshman Sheppard: 2.9:1 AST:TO ratio on 17.2% USG

Small sample size of course and much can change. But factoring in USG%, Sheppard's AST:TO ratio is pretty in line with Haliburton's who saw his turnovers go up considerably once he was placed in a larger scoring role. Sheppard thus far has a better ratio than Haliburton had in his Sophomore season but on somewhat lower usage, and a worse ratio compared to Haliburton's Freshman season but on higher usage. All of this is to say: Sheppard himself has been very impressive when it comes to not turning the ball over while creating for others.

_________________

But hey, I get the reluctance to compare Sheppard to Haliburton because of what an incredible NBA player Haliburton has become. So if there's a better and less controversial comparison out there in terms of archetype/profile, I'm all ears. But I do believe that the reluctance to compare him to Haliburton is because of how Haliburton has developed in the NBA, which factors into people's idea of what kind of player Haliburton must have always been. It's pretty clear to me, though, that Haliburton the prospect ≠ Haliburton the current NBA player and that without Haliburton's meteoric rise in the NBA, people would be able to embrace or at least understand the comparison with Sheppard a lot more.

[FarBeyondDriven]

There's a separate thread for Sheppard. But this is interesting..

Read on Twitter

If Sheppard is 6'3" that means Wagner is 6'3" because they're the exact same height, it would also mean Bronny is 6'4" and Collier is 6'5" because both of them are taller by a 1-2 inches. But none of that is correct since Sheppard 6'2". It makes a huge difference.

It's great he's shooting so well but he's afforded wide open shots due to how much talent is on the floor and their opponents up until now. We'll see how things play out once things really get rolling. The shooting won't matter in the NBA if he can't get on the floor since he's not a PG and can't guard the 2. He'll likely end up being a combo guard, a poor man's version of Derrick White at best, off the bench.

His defense in college won't translate to the NBA. He's just average at best. He's gotten some steals based on gambling and weak opponents.

[Jstock12]

Nikola Topic gives me such mixed feelings.

On one hand, I really enjoy watching his unusual/quirky style of movement and dribbbling. And he's clearly a great playmaker with some crafty finishing near the rim. He's putting up great stats against grown men (including some former NCAA star players or NBA role players). But on the other hand, I am very skeptical about his game translating against truly long and elite defensive players in the NBA. I didn't have this worry with Doncic back in the day - I was very sure Doncic would become an NBA star. But I'm just not getting the same vibe from Topic. I think he's more likely to become a star in the Euroleague, like Vasilje Micic.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Nikola Topic gives me such mixed feelings.

On one hand, I really enjoy watching his unusual/quirky style of movement and dribbbling. And he's clearly a great playmaker with some crafty finishing near the rim. He's putting up great stats against grown men (including some former NCAA star players or NBA role players). But on the other hand, I am very skeptical about his game translating against truly long and elite defensive players in the NBA. I didn't have this worry with Doncic back in the day - I was very sure Doncic would become an NBA star. But I'm just not getting the same vibe from Topic. I think he's more likely to become a star in the Euroleague, like Vasilje Micic.

I'm with you. Until recently, before I took a deep dive on him in particular I wasn't convinced. There's something very weird about how he carries himself on the court. He's very upright with almost no bend at the waist and his head seems to not move. I thought "there's no way he's doing any of this against NBA athletes". But he is doing this against his peers and with ease. This is pretty good stuff and hard to deny

Watch on YouTube

He's masterful in the pick in roll very reminiscent of Doncic as a passer. I'd say he's an elite passer. And he is very shifty with starts/stops and has no issue blowing by guys as a result. I think those things and his size at around 6'4" will play at the next level. His outside shooting is suspect but he's a good FT shooter so there's hope. And defense doesn't matter since he'd just be another high usage point guard that plays average to bad defense that is starting and putting up numbers.

I think he can safely be considered a top of the draft type talent and one of this classes' best point guard prospects. I'll need to see him against NBA athletes before I'm totally convinced. Will have to wait for the combine for that. Just remember, there really aren't that many elite defensive players in the NBA. With screens causing switches and rules favoring the offense, I think he'll be fine and might make some guys look pretty foolish if they underestimate him.