2022 NBA Draft Part II

[165bows]

Yeah, the rim stuff for Jabari scares the hell out of me. Absurdly low volume for a guy of his size and bad when he does get there

Is that absurdly low volume? Guy took a lot of shots inside and outside the arc.

[K_chile22]

Yeah, the rim stuff for Jabari scares the hell out of me. Absurdly low volume for a guy of his size and bad when he does get there

Is that absurdly low volume? Guy took a lot of shots inside and outside the arc.

Just a quick comparison to another top 3 6'10 guy Paolo, 63 "close 2" attempts vs 188 for Paolo. Vast majority of Jabari's twos are middies, AJ Griffin is 6'5 and primarily a shooter as well and shot nearly the same number of attempts

[clyde21]

Yeah, the rim stuff for Jabari scares the hell out of me. Absurdly low volume for a guy of his size and bad when he does get there

Is that absurdly low volume? Guy took a lot of shots inside and outside the arc.

Just a quick comparison to another top 3 6'10 guy Paolo, 63 "close 2" attempts vs 188 for Paolo. Vast majority of Jabari's twos are middies, AJ Griffin is 6'5 and primarily a shooter as well and shot nearly the same number of attempts

this just in: they played two completely different roles for their teams.

[SelfishPlayer]

The weird thing about this time of year in the modern NBA is that we can all see guards and wings, full time perimeter players, lead their teams to NBA championships, yet without fail overvaluing height persists in ranking NBA draft prospects.

Jaden Ivey, Mathurin, Kendall Brown, and Eason as a group physically appear to be more like what leads a modern NBA team to a championship over Jabari, Chet, and Banchero.

Look at GSW and Boston, how much draft capital have they invested in their starting big men/front court/PF/C/4/5?

I mean Draymond and Horford are both highly skilled PF. Even if they aren’t the best players on their teams they are compensated well. I think the center spot has been devalued, but that aligns with most mocks that don’t have a center going 1-10 even though a center like Duren based on talent and physical development has 1-10 potential.

Also the two players at the top of the MVP chase were centers and the closest runner up for ROY was a center. Centers still matter except the playoffs as long as they can guard the perimeter a bit.

Jordan, Lebron, Steph, Kawhi, Giannis, and the Pistons have all shown that investing large amounts of draft capital in non full time perimeter players/big men isn't necessary to win an NBA championship. If I had the #1 pick in this draft I would look to trade down. I Iike the idea of four quarters not equaling a dollar in an NBA trade where a superstar was traded for several pieces. Trading down to leverage the value that someone else sees in big men I don't think would be related to that. I think the full time perimeter players in this draft actually have the greater possibility of leading a championship effort because that is who leads championship efforts in today's NBA the majority of the time. Trading down from the #1 pick I feel better betting on Jaden Ivey, Mathurin, Kendall Brown, Eason and picks/NBA players rather than just drafting Jabari, Chet, or Banchero with the first pick.

[K_chile22]

Is that absurdly low volume? Guy took a lot of shots inside and outside the arc.

Just a quick comparison to another top 3 6'10 guy Paolo, 63 "close 2" attempts vs 188 for Paolo. Vast majority of Jabari's twos are middies, AJ Griffin is 6'5 and primarily a shooter as well and shot nearly the same number of attempts

this just in: they played two completely different roles for their teams.

I'm well aware, but any high usage 6'10 guy getting to the rim that seldomly is concerning, why I also pointed out AJ who has a somewhat similar role, though much lower usage and in slightly less minutes who still got to the rim just as much despite being almost half a foot shorter

[basketballRob]

Part X of my crusade against Jabari. Literally will never make a layup in the NBA in his career (exaggeration but not that far off). This is a 6'10" rumored number one pick who cannot finish over college kids.

You do know that he's one year younger than a player like Mobley when he was in college? So what would Jabari look like this year in college with one more year of his body developing?

Two other reasons why he didn't drive more at Auburn. One, no one else could hit an outside shot so the opponents would pack the paint. Two, Jabari knew they were packing the paint and could just shoot over players.

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[clyde21]

Read on Twitter

hope he's in serious consideration at 5

i like Daniels but what's the thought process for wanting him in Detroit when you already have Cade and Killian, unless you've completely given up on Killian.

[The Moose]

Read on Twitter

hope he's in serious consideration at 5

i like Daniels but what's the thought process for wanting him in Detroit when you already have Cade and Killian, unless you've completely given up on Killian.

Yea, the fit is a little bit complicated but it’s the latter really. I’ve pretty much given up on Killian as a key piece. I’m not sure he’s going to be much more than a backup

It’s also partly due to the guys I’m hearing being mentioned as the Pistons targets at 5.
There is a lot of smoke about Murray and Mathurin being the top 2 targets outside of the top 3 guys, and I can’t buy either of them at 5

[FrightCoward]

Part X of my crusade against Jabari. Literally will never make a layup in the NBA in his career (exaggeration but not that far off). This is a 6'10" rumored number one pick who cannot finish over college kids.

You do know that he's one year younger than a player like Mobley when he was in college? So what would Jabari look like this year in college with one more year of his body developing?

Two other reasons why he didn't drive more at Auburn. One, no one else could hit an outside shot so the opponents would packed the paint. Two, Jabari knew they were packing the paint and could just shoot over players.

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This guy gets it. Jabari’s very young age combined with his height, length, and perfect form wrapped into a 6’10 package make him such an obvious no brainer for the first pick. He’s going to be an all-star, his shooting for his size is special.

[clyde21]

Part X of my crusade against Jabari. Literally will never make a layup in the NBA in his career (exaggeration but not that far off). This is a 6'10" rumored number one pick who cannot finish over college kids.

You do know that he's one year younger than a player like Mobley when he was in college? So what would Jabari look like this year in college with one more year of his body developing?

Two other reasons why he didn't drive more at Auburn. One, no one else could hit an outside shot so the opponents would packed the paint. Two, Jabari knew they were packing the paint and could just shoot over players.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

we've already told him these concepts a while ago, he doesn't seem to get it tho.

it's fine...i'm just wondering why he still has Jabari top3 considering he has 'a crusade against him'.

[CptCrunch]

I call this the Jabari delusion, but I can see the most misguided poster falling for it year after year making excuses for flaws.

[clyde21]

I call this the Jabari delusion, but I can see the most misguided poster falling for it year after year making excuses for flaws.

so he's not in your top10 I am assuming?

[SelfishPlayer]

"For his size" is possibly what overrates taller prospects by lowering the bar for them. Steve Novak is 6'10" and shot lights out. You can be a 6'10" NBA player with an automatic jumpshot and it not materialize into being a #1 scorer. Matt Bullard was another 6'10" guy that shot really well. Jabari could simply have his professional jumpshot early at 18. His father was a former NBA player so he certainly has been exposed to pro knowledge early in life.

[toooskies]

The possibility of Jabari Smith being a shorter Lauri Markkanen with better defense but worse touch around the basket is there. I'd rather have Chet or Paolo.

[BlazersBroncos]

The possibility of Jabari Smith being a shorter Lauri Markkanen with better defense but worse touch around the basket is there. I'd rather have Chet or Paolo.

So Rashard Lewis (Who I think he likely turns out as w/ a small chance to be a Glen Rice type).

Still, for all the talk of Smith not being a guy that can score outside long jumpers he got near 5 FTA per game in 28mpg. Unless we are assuming those all come from being fouled at the 3PT line, its pretty clear he can drive to the lane.

[The-Power]

The possibility of Jabari Smith being a shorter Lauri Markkanen with better defense but worse touch around the basket is there. I'd rather have Chet or Paolo.

You can draw up these lower-end scenarios for Holmgren and Banchero, too.

[SelfishPlayer]

People throw around Jimmy Butler comparisons all of the time and I'm never in agreement. Ochai Agbaji may be a Jimmy Butler type in that he gets into the gym and constantly improves every year and continues to take his game beyond what people would have thought. He already does everything besides create for others/facilitate. There are too many guys that need the ball already in the NBA. Danny Green is still an NBA starter because of the need to compliment them. Ochai Agbaji is a natural off ball wing that does put the ball on the floor to score. He should be a lottery lock IMO.

[rpa]

The weird thing about this time of year in the modern NBA is that we can all see guards and wings, full time perimeter players, lead their teams to NBA championships, yet without fail overvaluing height persists in ranking NBA draft prospects.

Jaden Ivey, Mathurin, Kendall Brown, and Eason as a group physically appear to be more like what leads a modern NBA team to a championship over Jabari, Chet, and Banchero.

Look at GSW and Boston, how much draft capital have they invested in their starting big men/front court/PF/C/4/5?

I had a quick look into this a while back and the data is pretty stunning. If you take the top 5 picks from the 2010-2018 drafts (essentially all players have had at least 4 years in the league) and divide into positional groups (bigs, guards, and wings) you get the follow distribution and results:
12 guards => 6 all stars => 50% hit rate
12 wings => 6 all stars => 50% hit rate
21 bigs => 5 all stars => 24% hit rate

Not to mention that mixed into that 5 were:
a) 2 clear #1 picks
b) 1 that probably would have gone #1 if not for injury
c) 1 that had an argument for #1 if not for attitude

So yeah, it's pretty shocking that the top 3 in this draft will likely be big men despite the data showing otherwise.

Full post here: viewtopic.php?f=29&t=2193939&p=99251152#p99251152

[clyde21]

The weird thing about this time of year in the modern NBA is that we can all see guards and wings, full time perimeter players, lead their teams to NBA championships, yet without fail overvaluing height persists in ranking NBA draft prospects.

Jaden Ivey, Mathurin, Kendall Brown, and Eason as a group physically appear to be more like what leads a modern NBA team to a championship over Jabari, Chet, and Banchero.

Look at GSW and Boston, how much draft capital have they invested in their starting big men/front court/PF/C/4/5?

I had a quick look into this a while back and the data is pretty stunning. If you take the top 5 picks from the 2010-2018 drafts (essentially all players have had at least 4 years in the league) and divide into positional groups (bigs, guards, and wings) you get the follow distribution and results:
12 guards => 6 all stars => 50% hit rate
12 wings => 6 all stars => 50% hit rate
21 bigs => 5 all stars => 24% hit rate

Not to mention that mixed into that 5 were:
a) 2 clear #1 picks
b) 1 that probably would have gone #1 if not for injury
c) 1 that had an argument for #1 if not for attitude

So yeah, it's pretty shocking that the top 3 in this draft will likely be big men despite the data showing otherwise.

Full post here: viewtopic.php?f=29&t=2193939&p=99251152#p99251152

how do you define 'success'?

2010: Cousins and Favors - 2/2
2011: Kanter, Thompson, Valanciunas - 1/3
2012: Davis, Robinson - 1/2
2013: Zeller, Len - 0/2
2014: Embiid - 1/1
2015: Towns, Okafor, Porzingis - 2/3
2016: Simmons, Bender - 1/2
2017: none
2018: Ayton, Bagley, Jackson - 2/3

9/18 - that's a 50% success rate for bigs.

and i'd say biggest part of the problem is that a lot of GMs have had a hard time catching up to today's NBA - drafting 'traditional' centers and bigs in the top5 like Okafor and Wiseman which was always insane, but guys like Jackson, Mobley, Towns, Embiid, etc. make it well worth the pick if you identify those guys, which isn't that hard.

[rpa]

how do you define 'success'?

"All star"--thus why I looked at the top 5. If you pick a player in the top 5 and their career peaks at "good starter" then either the pick was a failure or it was a crap draft.

As for your list:
- JV isn't a success as a top 5 pick.
- I don't think Favors is either.
- I didn't count Simmons as a big
- Using "all star" as the criteria means neither Ayton nor Jackson count as successes*

* This is probably the least fair since they're the youngest draft on the list