Luka Doncic

[reanimator]

You are the one saying he can't get buckets. I say, even if he couldn't, he could still be an improved Jason Kidd (bigger, more athletic and a better shooter). Today in a bad offensive game, he scored 12, not bad at all.

Again, watch a game and you will understand why he takes very few shots. He runs the offense for the team, not for himself. And it is working. +13 with him on the floor today.

Doncic is more athletic than Jason Kidd? Doncic can defend like Jason Kidd? Doncic can create looks for his teammates like Jason Kidd?

yes. doubtful. yes

doesn't have the ballhandling wizardry of Kidd but add in better shooting and post offense/playmaking.

Have to disagree. Jason Kidd was a speed demon...go look up old videos. And I'll be pleasantly surprised if Doncic hovers around a 40 % assist rate for his NBA career.

I do find Doncic's flashes of post offense intriguing.

[Sports Geek]

Ahhh so you have to list generational HOF talents that span 3 decades and can only field 4 names? Odds don't look to good for Doncic as "the guy" without the ability to get buckets.

You are the one saying he can't get buckets. I say, even if he couldn't, he could still be an improved Jason Kidd (bigger, more athletic and a better shooter). Today in a bad offensive game, he scored 12, not bad at all.

Again, watch a game and you will understand why he takes very few shots. He runs the offense for the team, not for himself. And it is working. +13 with him on the floor today.

Doncic is more athletic than Jason Kidd? Doncic can defend like Jason Kidd? Doncic can create looks for his teammates like Jason Kidd?

Yes. Yes. Yes. Kidd's speed was decent, just that. And I don't remember even a dunk from him (I am sure he did, all players can). He was strong though, but Doncic will likely be stronger. Defense? He can defend from PG to PFs at Euroleague level. Could Kidd do that? And of course, as I already mentioned (not just me, all the posters that actually watched Doncic play), he has an awesome ability to find the better option for his team.

Anyway, this conversation doesn't make any sense. I don't enter to Fultz thread because I don't have the tools to fairly judge him. You keep discussing about something you haven't even watched in this thread. Feel free to do it, of course, but for me the discussion between you and me is not anything I am enjoying. UcanUwill (sorry for metioning you again, but you are a good example) and me have different opinions about Doncic's ceiling. But he knows what he is talking about. Why? Because he is following Doncic's career.

It is like saying:

- I don't like the Lord of the Rings movie.
- Why?
- Because I didn't like the teaser trailer.

I don't mean to disrespect or being rude, but you are talking about something you haven't watched.

[reanimator]

Yes. Yes. Yes. Kidd's speed was decent, just that. And I don't remember even a dunk from him (I am sure he did, all players can). He was strong though, but Doncic will likely be stronger. Defense? He can defend from PG to PFs at Euroleague level. Could Kidd do that? And of course, as I already mentioned (not just me, all the posters that actually watched Doncic play), he has an awesome ability to find the better option for his team.

Anyway, this conversation doesn't make any sense. I don't enter to Fultz thread because I don't have the tools to fairly judge him. You keep discussing about something you haven't even watched in this thread. Feel free to do it, of course, but for me the discussion between you and me is not anything I am enjoying. UcanUwill (sorry for metioning you again, but you are a good example) and me have different opinions about Doncic's ceiling. But he knows what he is talking about. Why? Because he is following Doncic's career.

So let me get this straight, Doncic will be a plus defender guarding the 1-4 and is an explosive leaper?

[Bob8]

i'm not sure i understand what you're asking me....

30 Nba scouts has came in Spain to watch Coppa del Ray in Vitoria. I asked you, what do you think they saw yesterday? This is boxscore,
http://www.acb.com/fichas/CREY81002.php

What do you think they have seen?

1. 17 old kid who can score, rebound and assist, run the offense and have such trust from the coach, that he left him in the game almost the whole second half and overtime, when Real was behind and desperately chased the opponents, to finally win in the end?

2. 17 old kid who doesn't have flashy moves?

Which one?

Everyone knows Doncic is a NBA prospect. Why you want to keep deflecting from analyzing his game with stuff like this is beyond me.

because you're telling us, his problems are not having flashy moves i really doubt that scouts are primarily looking for that.

I'm sure that they were impressed with what they saw yesterday, because they saw how 17 old kid functions in a professional team in a important and difficult game.

[Sports Geek]

Yes. Yes. Yes. Kidd's speed was decent, just that. And I don't remember even a dunk from him (I am sure he did, all players can). He was strong though, but Doncic will likely be stronger. Defense? He can defend from PG to PFs at Euroleague level. Could Kidd do that? And of course, as I already mentioned (not just me, all the posters that actually watched Doncic play), he has an awesome ability to find the better option for his team.

Anyway, this conversation doesn't make any sense. I don't enter to Fultz thread because I don't have the tools to fairly judge him. You keep discussing about something you haven't even watched in this thread. Feel free to do it, of course, but for me the discussion between you and me is not anything I am enjoying. UcanUwill (sorry for metioning you again, but you are a good example) and me have different opinions about Doncic's ceiling. But he knows what he is talking about. Why? Because he is following Doncic's career.

So let me get this straight, Doncic will be a plus defender guarding the 1-4 and is an explosive leaper?

I don't know what he will be. That's the difference between you and me, I never said he will succeed, I said he has the tools to do so. And I say, he is already a more explosive leaper than Kidd ever was. Mostly because Kidd was way below the average in that aspect.

[reanimator]

Yes. Yes. Yes. Kidd's speed was decent, just that. And I don't remember even a dunk from him (I am sure he did, all players can). He was strong though, but Doncic will likely be stronger. Defense? He can defend from PG to PFs at Euroleague level. Could Kidd do that? And of course, as I already mentioned (not just me, all the posters that actually watched Doncic play), he has an awesome ability to find the better option for his team.

Anyway, this conversation doesn't make any sense. I don't enter to Fultz thread because I don't have the tools to fairly judge him. You keep discussing about something you haven't even watched in this thread. Feel free to do it, of course, but for me the discussion between you and me is not anything I am enjoying. UcanUwill (sorry for metioning you again, but you are a good example) and me have different opinions about Doncic's ceiling. But he knows what he is talking about. Why? Because he is following Doncic's career.

So let me get this straight, Doncic will be a plus defender guarding the 1-4 and is an explosive leaper?

I don't know what it will be. That's the difference between you and me, I never said he will succeed, I said he has the tools to do so. And I say, he is already a more explosive leaper than Kidd ever was. Mostly because Kidd was way below the average in that aspect.

Kidd had athletic traits that were elite despite him not being a elite leaper. Saying Doncic is a better leaper than Kidd does not tell us anything relevant.

[reanimator]

because you're telling us, his problems are not having flashy moves

No, I'm saying I'd like to see him be more creative with his handle to create separation because he won't have it as easy off the bounce at the next level.

[Thespianoid]

Doncic is more athletic than Jason Kidd? Doncic can defend like Jason Kidd? Doncic can create looks for his teammates like Jason Kidd?

yes. doubtful. yes

doesn't have the ballhandling wizardry of Kidd but add in better shooting and post offense/playmaking.

Have to disagree. Jason Kidd was a speed demon...go look up old videos. And I'll be pleasantly surprised if Doncic hovers around a 40 % assist rate for his NBA career.

I do find Doncic's flashes of post offense intriguing.

dont think Doncic is as fast in a straight line but he's a significantly better leaper than Kidd. Not sure that really matters but then again it's always a trade off - speed vs size. What possiblities he might lose due to speed he'll gain from being able to punish smalls.

from the samples we have of Doncic playing against his peers during his time on Real Madrid's Junior Team he does hover around a 40% AST% (38.77 and 38.54). Small samples though so nothing conclusive. Also in 12 Euroleague games he's sporting a 32.73% AST%. Doubt he'll sustain that high of numbers in the NBA as his ACB samples are less good (18.55 and 23.38 the last two years), but that could be due to small role as a 16 yr old and fluctuation in playmaking opportunities (Real are very Lull-centric). Not really sure his playmaking/IQ should be in question as that's his major outlier strength that IMO is a sure bet to translate to the NBA.

Can't remember which poster it is that calls into question Doncic's position but really it doesn't matter nowadays. He's a playmaking wing and players of this mold always find ways to contribute.

[Bob8]

because you're telling us, his problems are not having flashy moves

No, I'm saying I'd like to see him be more creative with his handle to create separation because he won't have it as easy off the bounce at the next level.

please watch some of his games and we can talk later, what he can or can't create. now it hasn't any sense to talk about that. and I don't say he will be next Lebron, Magic or something. i'm sure he will be great Euroleague player and maybe, just maybe, he can be very good Nba player too. only thing I know for 100% is, that he is very special at this moment, what future will bring nobody knows.

maybe to understand easier what his stats means i can tell you, that in Euroleague history only one player has triple double, the assists are much more difficult to get than in Nba.

[reanimator]

from the samples we have of Doncic playing against his peers during his time on Real Madrid's Junior Team he does hover around a 40% AST% (38.77 and 38.54). Small samples though so nothing conclusive. Also in 12 Euroleague games he's sporting a 32.73% AST%. Doubt he'll sustain that high of numbers in the NBA as his ACB samples are less good (18.55 and 23.38 the last two years), but that could be due to small role as a 16 yr old and fluctuation in playmaking opportunities (Real are very Lull-centric). Not really sure his playmaking/IQ should be in question as that's his major outlier strength that IMO is a sure bet to translate to the NBA.

Sure playmaking is his strength, but there are tiers. Lets contextualize Jason Kidd as a creator.

career assist rate percentage:

Kidd: 38.5
CP3: 47.3
Lebron: 34.9
Batum: 17.7
Hayward: 18.7
Iguodala: 20

[Thespianoid]

Yes. Yes. Yes. Kidd's speed was decent, just that. And I don't remember even a dunk from him (I am sure he did, all players can). He was strong though, but Doncic will likely be stronger. Defense? He can defend from PG to PFs at Euroleague level. Could Kidd do that? And of course, as I already mentioned (not just me, all the posters that actually watched Doncic play), he has an awesome ability to find the better option for his team.

Anyway, this conversation doesn't make any sense. I don't enter to Fultz thread because I don't have the tools to fairly judge him. You keep discussing about something you haven't even watched in this thread. Feel free to do it, of course, but for me the discussion between you and me is not anything I am enjoying. UcanUwill (sorry for metioning you again, but you are a good example) and me have different opinions about Doncic's ceiling. But he knows what he is talking about. Why? Because he is following Doncic's career.

So let me get this straight, Doncic will be a plus defender guarding the 1-4 and is an explosive leaper?

I have my concerns about him being a plus defender in general. Haven't seen enough quality game tape to really make a judgement. From the little I've seen I think he'll be a competent defender 2-3 and in time the 4.

Decently explosive when he gets to his launching pad and gets his footwork correct. Elite athlete he is not and in tight spaces his final step isn't great despite his first step being pretty good.

Thing is, he does some things that make me wonder if he's more crafty off the dribble/has more hangtime than we all think, which would help his scoring, and if so how come we haven't seen enough of that? Possibly due to role on the team, or mentality? Earliest four videos here are the best I have to go on when it comes to seeing him in a moderately large role (as Llull was out during their preseason). Can see his finishing weaknesses either due to footwork or explosiveness but also some good change of pace to get into the paint past the initial defender (usually ends in a skip pass as defense collapses).

In this move he uses a good change of pace to explode past the defender, get in the air, absorb the contact and finish with a reverse layup. This one is probably the most promising piece of scoring I've ever seen from him.

Here in transition he uses a hesitation to crossover but drives into traffic so kicks it out to a shooter.

The above two examples are both in transition though and I think a majority of his half-court creation will result in passes rather than individual score chances (combo of instinct + athletic/scoring limitations). But as per usual, need a lot more footage to really make any definitive conclusions.

[Thespianoid]

from the samples we have of Doncic playing against his peers during his time on Real Madrid's Junior Team he does hover around a 40% AST% (38.77 and 38.54). Small samples though so nothing conclusive. Also in 12 Euroleague games he's sporting a 32.73% AST%. Doubt he'll sustain that high of numbers in the NBA as his ACB samples are less good (18.55 and 23.38 the last two years), but that could be due to small role as a 16 yr old and fluctuation in playmaking opportunities (Real are very Lull-centric). Not really sure his playmaking/IQ should be in question as that's his major outlier strength that IMO is a sure bet to translate to the NBA.

Sure playmaking is his strength, but there are tiers. Lets contextualize Jason Kidd as a creator.

career assist rate percentage:

Kidd: 38.5
CP3: 47.3
Lebron: 34.9
Batum: 17.7
Hayward: 18.7
Iguodala: 20

very true. I think he'll be in the high 20's - mid 30's level as a creator. Just my hypothesis though.

[SportsGuy8]

It highly depends on if he ends up on a team where he's eventually going to be given the keys. If the whole offense ran through him, he can even challenge Kidd's numbers. Don't forget his height, everything is going to be easier for him because of it, even assists (since he can look over defenses).

HOWEVER, as JPF mentioned on page 3, it's quite unlikely that any team is going to give the keys to someone with a body of a SF, mostly because then the whole team's concept needs to adapt to it and that's truly something only a select few in history were worth of. He would need to become spectacular, a true HOF player, and that's unlikely to predict/expect from ANY teenager.

So it's quite possible we're never going to see his true potential, but make no mistake, that's true for almost every single player. There's lots of players out there that would look amazing if they were given the keys. Think about what Westbrook and Harden are doing this year, when everything runs through them. The same thing (just to a lesser extent, due to lesser talent) would happen with lots of other players if they were put in same spot ...

This is where Doncic's problem lies:

He could end up with simply being great at things his team won't be needing from him and only good at the things he is expected to do. Wouldn't be the first or the last player to get in that cage.

Sadly, that's also the most likely scenario.

Unless he makes another LEAP forward, because as you said, based on how much he improved in the last year, it doesn't look like he's close to his "wall" yet. Just imagine if he makes another similar improvement this year ...

[SportsGuy8]

Oh, as for his transition from Euroleague to the NBA, I really don't think most Americans here realize just how close the top level Euroleague is to the NBA (also because of the media, who in the past kept praising eventual busts that supposedly "dominated the European leagues", when in reality, they either played on weak teams, in inferior leagues, or were considered projects even in Europe), that's why some of us went to great lengths trying to explain it. Especially offensively, almost everything should be easily translatable. If anything, for many players, NBA game is going to be easier offensively, because of bigger court and the rules that highly benefit the offensive players.

You really shouldn't worry about offense at all. For perimeter players, the NBA game is EASIER offensively than the Euroleague. There's almost no way Doncic is going to truly struggle there.

The main reason why European big men tend to be much more successful in the NBA is that over the past few decades, lots of the best European perimeter players simply stayed in Europe, not even trying the NBA. If we saw everyone in the NBA (for example Bodiroga, Diamantidis ...), the general opinion would have been much different.

The defensive end, on the other hand, that's where problem lies. Here the situation is reversed. Due to the very same rules that I just mentioned, it's a lot harder for defenders to stay in-front of some of the truly quick NBA players. The main issue isn't so much in athletic differences, but in the rules.

[jrob23]

Oh, as for his transition from Euroleague to the NBA, I really don't think most Americans here realize just how close the top level Euroleague is to the NBA (also because of the media, who in the past kept praising eventual busts that supposedly "dominated the European leagues", when in reality, they either played on weak teams, in inferior leagues, or were considered projects even in Europe), that's why some of us went to great lengths trying to explain it. Especially offensively, almost everything should be easily translatable. If anything, for many players, NBA game is going to be easier offensively, because of bigger court and the rules that highly benefit the offensive players.

You really shouldn't worry about offense at all. For perimeter players, the NBA game is EASIER offensively than the Euroleague. There's almost no way Doncic is going to truly struggle there.

The main reason why European big men tend to be much more successful in the NBA is that over the past few decades, lots of the best European perimeter players simply stayed in Europe, not even trying the NBA. If we saw everyone in the NBA (for example Bodiroga, Diamantidis ...), the general opinion would have been much different.

The defensive end, on the other hand, that's where problem lies. Here the situation is reversed. Due to the very same rules that I just mentioned, it's a lot harder for defenders to stay in-front of some of the truly quick NBA players. The main issue isn't so much in athletic differences, but in the rules.

We don't need schooling...quite the opposite actually. We're well aware what traits make for a good NBA wing and some of us just aren't impressed with Doncic at 6'7". And no, there's a massive difference between Euro and NBA. The reason there has been so many good European big men is because of size, and the NBA has moved towards stretch 4s and 5s and finesse.

[UcanUwill]

I think Doncic can be similar to Kidd in boxscores, a triple double thread, but more athletic than Kidd? you guys are tripping, Kidd was very athletic, fast and strong, lockdown defender.

Doncic averaging close to 8 assists per 36 minutes in EL, which is very strong, especially considering he shares some time with Llull. SO I have no doubt he can grow into an elite facilitator. His progress even from beginning of the season to now is noticeable and undeniable, he became one of my favorite Euroleague players. That said, I started symphatise with reanimator in this thread, I think the hype from Doncic fanboys is a little out of control.

[Bob8]

I think Doncic can be similar to Kidd in boxscores, a triple double thread, but more athletic than Kidd? you guys are tripping, Kidd was very athletic, fast and strong, lockdown defender.

Doncic averaging close to 8 assists per 36 minutes in EL, which is very strong, especially considering he shares some time with Llull. SO I have no doubt he can grow into an elite facilitator. His progress even from beginning of the season to now is noticeable and undeniable, he became one of my favorite Euroleague players. That said, I started symphatise with reanimator in this thread, I think the hype from Doncic fanboys is a little out of control.

You sympathize with people( reanimator, jrob23) who haven't seen any game in which Doncic have played and haven't seen any Euroleague games. Do you understand that good part of fanboying is directly provoked by this people? This thread is really unique. Only thread where 2 of top5 posters haven't seen a prospect, about whom they're talking about, play. And 90% of their posts are negative. What would happen in Fultz or Ball thread if some euro posters will storm in, more or less admitted that they don't know much about Fultz and said he's one league below Ntilikina and the same prospect that Kurucs? Reaction would be tremendous. But we don't, because we don't know enough to write about Fultz or Ball. I understand there are different opinions about how big prospect Doncic is. I know there there is hype, and I know how difficult is to become good Nba player. But I really can't understand how someone can have strong opinion about something he have seen only on highlights and more or less don't know anything about? And please explain me why Draftexpress has Doncic in second place? I guess they shouldn't be influenced by the hype.

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2018/

[UcanUwill]

I think Doncic can be similar to Kidd in boxscores, a triple double thread, but more athletic than Kidd? you guys are tripping, Kidd was very athletic, fast and strong, lockdown defender.

Doncic averaging close to 8 assists per 36 minutes in EL, which is very strong, especially considering he shares some time with Llull. SO I have no doubt he can grow into an elite facilitator. His progress even from beginning of the season to now is noticeable and undeniable, he became one of my favorite Euroleague players. That said, I started symphatise with reanimator in this thread, I think the hype from Doncic fanboys is a little out of control.

You sympathize with people( reanimator, jrob23) who haven't seen any game in which Doncic have played and haven't seen any Euroleague games. Do you understand that good part of fanboying is directly provoked by this people? This thread is really unique. Only thread where 2 of top5 posters haven't seen a prospect, about whom they're talking about, play. And 90% of their posts are negative. What would happen in Fultz or Ball thread if some euro posters will storm in, more or less admitted that they don't know much about Fultz and said he's one league below Ntilikina and the same prospect that Kurucs? Reaction would be tremendous. But we don't, because we don't know enough to write about Fultz or Ball. I understand there are different opinions about how big prospect Doncic is. I know there there is hype, and I know how difficult is to become good Nba player. But I really can't understand how someone can have strong opinion about something he have seen only on highlights and more or less don't know anything about? And please explain me why Draftexpress has Doncic in second place? I guess they shouldn't be influenced by the hype.

Well, I dont think their opinion would change much if they watched the games. I think highlights are completely serviceable. Sure, watching full games gives you a far bigger picture, but I watch full games all the time, and I kinda agree with reanimator, I think Doncic fanboys are too hyped up about the guy.

I always been a pessimist, so maybe its just me. But I always try to keep expectations at modest level at best. I think Doncic will struggle in the NBA for sure, and two years of hyping him as the best Euro ever is not helping anyone.

[reanimator]

You sympathize with people( reanimator, jrob23) who haven't seen any game in which Doncic have played and haven't seen any Euroleague games. Do you understand that good part of fanboying is directly provoked by this people? This thread is really unique. Only thread where 2 of top5 posters haven't seen a prospect, about whom they're talking about, play. And 90% of their posts are negative. What would happen in Fultz or Ball thread if some euro posters will storm in, more or less admitted that they don't know much about Fultz and said he's one league below Ntilikina and the same prospect that Kurucs? Reaction would be tremendous. But we don't, because we don't know enough to write about Fultz or Ball. I understand there are different opinions about how big prospect Doncic is. I know there there is hype, and I know how difficult is to become good Nba player.

People can and do criticize Ball and Fultz and no one throws a giant fit....thats the difference. This is a draft forum meant for analysis but it seems like you would rather just track Doncic game by game production with little to no analysis in terms of the NBA draft? I don't even think I've had a crazy take in this thread: said he was a lottery pick, compared him to high level starters and all stars, and complimented his skillset plenty....I critique his weaknesses and think HOF comps are ludicrous which seems to be the point of contention? Not sure why you think I haven't watched extensive film, either?

[SportsGuy8]

Please note that this discussion is extremely relevant to Doncic and how his game will translate to the NBA. Personally, I love the NBA and don't particularly like the Euroleague, for the same reason why I love the football's Champions League and don't like UEFA Europa League - the absolute best players and teams play somewhere else (in the CL in football and in the NBA in basketball).

We don't need schooling...quite the opposite actually. We're well aware what traits make for a good NBA wing and some of us just aren't impressed with Doncic at 6'7". And no, there's a massive difference between Euro and NBA.

There really isn't. In the majority of cases when an established PERIMETER player from one of the top European teams went to the NBA, their production there was actually close to how they performed in Europe, with their games translating very well.

I'll give you a few examples, but in a spoiler, because they're merely supporting the point I'm trying to make:

Spoiler:

- Ginobili was basically the exact same player, his game translated perfectly.
- Peja was the same player.
- Gallinari (most of his game is perimeter) is basically the same.
- Rudy Fernandez had a good rookie year, then that injury happened and he was never the same again.
- Navarro had an OK rookie year, unfortunately he then went back home.
- Bojan Bogdanovic is basically the same player, the main difference is that he's a bit less able to bully opponents.
Then there's a few that were actually rather average in Europe:
- Calderon basically did better in the NBA, compared to Europe.
- Rubio looked much worse on Barcelona compared to how he looks playing for the Wolves. NBA is MUCH easier for him.

The one that truly disappointed was Spanoulis, but that was because he couldn't handle his lack of minutes like a man (like Drazen Petrovic, for example), and ran home to his mommy after 1 single season, before he even got a real chance. But we cannot base anything on one player who was clearly emotionally immature.

Besides Spanoulis, who else performed way under expectations? Whose game didn't truly translate? Jasikevicius? Everyone expected him to have problems in the NBA. Anyone else? I've been losing my mind for the past hour trying to think of anyone else.

The reason there has been so many good European big men is because of size, and the NBA has moved towards stretch 4s and 5s and finesse.

That's obviously true, but if a guy like Bodiroga decided to try his luck in the NBA, a similar thing could have been said about him, just change your last sentence to "NBA has moved towards play-making point-forwards". The point is that the unique skills of European big men are clearly respected, unlike the unique skills of European perimeter players.

Doncic's most unique skill is that he already seems to be smarter and wiser than basically all the veterans on his own team (that's full of ex-NBA players). And unlike some other Euros that dominated with their minds, he's not athletically challenged, so he won't get overlooked.

There's a big stigma against European perimeter players, mostly based on their game supposedly not translating to the NBA, even though there's no actual evidence supporting it. If anything, the evidence NEGATES it.