Kasparas Jakucionis

[The-Power]

Would he have been considered top 3 if not for his left hand injury?

I have him 3rd in my big board for quite a while.

That depends on how much you believe his injury contributed to his struggles. I was very high on him and if his shot looks great in workouts, he will rise again. The injury was not responsible for his very lackluster defense and his propensity to turn the ball over a ton, so teams will have to assess what caliber of offensive player he is. Is he a top 2 offensive player on a playoff team down the road? If so, you can justify picking him 3rd. But if he's anything less than that, his value takes a nosedive.

But what is his ceiling really? From what I know, he is PG who does not really blow pass his men, can't really get to the paint because of that, and is turnover prone. KOC compared him to Haliburton, but to me, he looks more Ty Jereme level prospect than Haliburton, who for starters does not turn the ball over at all. I don't know, I am not that aware of all these prospects, but it feels to me like his ceiling is just not high enough at all to warrant a top 5 or maybe even top 10 pick.

I think your characterization of him as a scorer is not doing him justice. The reason for him rising a lot on my personal draft board (before I bumped him down again) was precisely because his scoring arsenal was so intriguing. Sure, his shooting ability mattered a ton. But for me, it was his ability to finish in a variety of ways and draw fouls that convinced me that I needed to rank him higher. He finished the season shooting 56% on his 2s on decent volume and a FTr of almost 0.5 (converting almost 85% of his foul shots). Those are elite numbers for a lead Guard.

What I do agree with that he's definitely not Haliburton. Very different player not only in terms of quality but also play style. I also don't mind comparing him to NBA Ty Jerome. Which might not sound intriguing at first, but if you get the Ty Jerome from last season earlier into Jaku's career then that's a solid outcome for a pick late in the lottery. And I think that's certainly attainable.

I don't have him as a top 5 pick anymore. But top 10 or late lottery? I think that's perfectly reasonable even if you're not his biggest fan. But as I said, the offense needs to not only translate but look like earlier in the season or else his value drops dramatically primarily because he was really limited on defense.

[UcanUwill]

That depends on how much you believe his injury contributed to his struggles. I was very high on him and if his shot looks great in workouts, he will rise again. The injury was not responsible for his very lackluster defense and his propensity to turn the ball over a ton, so teams will have to assess what caliber of offensive player he is. Is he a top 2 offensive player on a playoff team down the road? If so, you can justify picking him 3rd. But if he's anything less than that, his value takes a nosedive.

But what is his ceiling really? From what I know, he is PG who does not really blow pass his men, can't really get to the paint because of that, and is turnover prone. KOC compared him to Haliburton, but to me, he looks more Ty Jereme level prospect than Haliburton, who for starters does not turn the ball over at all. I don't know, I am not that aware of all these prospects, but it feels to me like his ceiling is just not high enough at all to warrant a top 5 or maybe even top 10 pick.

I think your characterization of him as a scorer is not doing him justice. The reason for him rising a lot on my personal draft board (before I bumped him down again) was precisely because his scoring arsenal was so intriguing. Sure, his shooting ability mattered a ton. But for me, it was his ability to finish in a variety of ways and draw fouls that convinced me that I needed to rank him higher. He finished the season shooting 56% on his 2s on decent volume and a FTr of almost 0.5 (converting almost 85% of his foul shots). Those are elite numbers for a lead Guard.

What I do agree with that he's definitely not Haliburton. Very different player not only in terms of quality but also play style. I also don't mind comparing him to NBA Ty Jerome. Which might not sound intriguing at first, but if you get the Ty Jerome from last season earlier into Jaku's career then that's a solid outcome for a pick late in the lottery. And I think that's certainly attainable.

I don't have him as a top 5 pick anymore. But top 10 or late lottery? I think that's perfectly reasonable even if you're not his biggest fan. But as I said, the offense needs to not only translate but look like earlier in the season or else his value drops dramatically primarily because he was really limited on defense.

As I said before, I hope he is good, I am Lithuanian fanboy, but I am just natural pessimist, and I simply do not see that big of the upside here. Late lottery I think is probably fine, guys like Dick and Jordan Hawkins were late lottery and I do not think Jaku is worse prospect than those. Tho, as Lithuanian, I still think Matas Buzelis has far bigger ceiling as NBA player, for our National team, jakučionis should be more important just cause we lack guard talent, we have enough tall guys, but for the NBA, I think KJ probably peaks as bench player, I definitley ain't seeing a top 3 pick. Tho Ace Bailey is projected to go top 3 and a lot of people saying he is just next Cam Reddish, so I guess it is crapshoot either way.

[The-Power]

Tho Ace Bailey is projected to go top 3 and a lot of people saying he is just next Cam Reddish, so I guess it is crapshoot either way.

Yeah, I think there are a lot of interesting players in the 3 to ~20 range but ranking those players does feel like a complete crapshoot in some regards.

[76ciology]

That depends on how much you believe his injury contributed to his struggles. I was very high on him and if his shot looks great in workouts, he will rise again. The injury was not responsible for his very lackluster defense and his propensity to turn the ball over a ton, so teams will have to assess what caliber of offensive player he is. Is he a top 2 offensive player on a playoff team down the road? If so, you can justify picking him 3rd. But if he's anything less than that, his value takes a nosedive.

But what is his ceiling really? From what I know, he is PG who does not really blow pass his men, can't really get to the paint because of that, and is turnover prone. KOC compared him to Haliburton, but to me, he looks more Ty Jereme level prospect than Haliburton, who for starters does not turn the ball over at all. I don't know, I am not that aware of all these prospects, but it feels to me like his ceiling is just not high enough at all to warrant a top 5 or maybe even top 10 pick.

I think your characterization of him as a scorer is not doing him justice. The reason for him rising a lot on my personal draft board (before I bumped him down again) was precisely because his scoring arsenal was so intriguing. Sure, his shooting ability mattered a ton. But for me, it was his ability to finish in a variety of ways and draw fouls that convinced me that I needed to rank him higher. He finished the season shooting 56% on his 2s on decent volume and a FTr of almost 0.5 (converting almost 85% of his foul shots). Those are elite numbers for a lead Guard.

What I do agree with that he's definitely not Haliburton. Very different player not only in terms of quality but also play style. I also don't mind comparing him to NBA Ty Jerome. Which might not sound intriguing at first, but if you get the Ty Jerome from last season earlier into Jaku's career then that's a solid outcome for a pick late in the lottery. And I think that's certainly attainable.

I don't have him as a top 5 pick anymore. But top 10 or late lottery? I think that's perfectly reasonable even if you're not his biggest fan. But as I said, the offense needs to not only translate but look like earlier in the season or else his value drops dramatically primarily because he was really limited on defense.

May I ask why he’s no longer in your top 5? Are you putting significant weight on his post-injury performance when evaluating his overall value?

That’s actually the main reason I’m here. Every time I dig into Kasparas, I end up in a rabbit hole wondering why he isn’t considered the third-best prospect. And it always seems to come back to his post-injury play. But does it really make sense to put so much stock into that stretch, especially when, pre-injury, he played 15 games and showed the same high-level traits he had before Illinois? And despite all that he ended the season with 58TS%.

It kind of reminds me of how Tyrese Maxey was evaluated. He dropped to 21st because of underwhelming college numbers, but Morey looked at his high school performance and believed he was much better than what he showed at Kentucky. Kasparas might be in that same boat.

[UcanUwill]

But what is his ceiling really? From what I know, he is PG who does not really blow pass his men, can't really get to the paint because of that, and is turnover prone. KOC compared him to Haliburton, but to me, he looks more Ty Jereme level prospect than Haliburton, who for starters does not turn the ball over at all. I don't know, I am not that aware of all these prospects, but it feels to me like his ceiling is just not high enough at all to warrant a top 5 or maybe even top 10 pick.

I think your characterization of him as a scorer is not doing him justice. The reason for him rising a lot on my personal draft board (before I bumped him down again) was precisely because his scoring arsenal was so intriguing. Sure, his shooting ability mattered a ton. But for me, it was his ability to finish in a variety of ways and draw fouls that convinced me that I needed to rank him higher. He finished the season shooting 56% on his 2s on decent volume and a FTr of almost 0.5 (converting almost 85% of his foul shots). Those are elite numbers for a lead Guard.

What I do agree with that he's definitely not Haliburton. Very different player not only in terms of quality but also play style. I also don't mind comparing him to NBA Ty Jerome. Which might not sound intriguing at first, but if you get the Ty Jerome from last season earlier into Jaku's career then that's a solid outcome for a pick late in the lottery. And I think that's certainly attainable.

I don't have him as a top 5 pick anymore. But top 10 or late lottery? I think that's perfectly reasonable even if you're not his biggest fan. But as I said, the offense needs to not only translate but look like earlier in the season or else his value drops dramatically primarily because he was really limited on defense.

May I ask why he’s no longer in your top 5? Are you putting significant weight on his post-injury performance when evaluating his overall value?

That’s actually the main reason I’m here. Every time I dig into Kasparas, I end up in a rabbit hole wondering why he isn’t considered the third-best prospect. And it always seems to come back to his post-injury play. But does it really make sense to put so much stock into that stretch, especially when, pre-injury, he played 15 games and showed the same high-level traits he had before Illinois? And despite all that he ended the season with 58TS%.

It kind of reminds me of how Tyrese Maxey was evaluated. He dropped to 21st because of underwhelming college numbers, but Morey looked at his high school performance and believed he was much better than what he showed at Kentucky. Kasparas might be in that same boat.

But not like he was projected top 3 before Illinois. He had some incredibly strong performances with Barcelona junior team, but also disappointing tournament with Lithuanian junior team, and it seems that his hype as top 5 prospect is just those 15 games as you say, which sounds very unconvincing. I think overall, he definitely overperformed his expectations as college player, after last year, Nojus Indrušaitis was performing almost on par with KJ in FIBA, and Nojus was burried on his college team and he is probably never ever gets drafted. KJ can play, but seems like he also got lucky with his college team and he had early advantage over many college kids in a sense he had experience with practicing with man Barcelona guys, and even appearing in a few PRO games, so putting so much faith in those 15 games seems a bit sketchy.

[The-Power]

May I ask why he’s no longer in your top 5? Are you putting significant weight on his post-injury performance when evaluating his overall value?

Sure you may ask! It's mostly that I watched a ton of film on him as I became more and more intrigued, and the defensive limitations really stood out to me. And when you are so limited defensively, every offensive shortcoming and question mark matters more. So it certainly didn't help that we now have to ask ourselves how much of the worsening performance can be attributed to injury versus regression to the mean, but it's only part of the equation. And as I noted elsewhere, I think the prospects in the 3-15 range is just so tough to separate that little details can sway me. That also means that I wouldn't argue with you if you told me you ranked him 3rd. I still think that's a justifiable stance.

[tontoz]

His injury might have caused his shooting problems but it didnt cause his turnovers, many of which were really awful.

I wasn't that impressed with his bag on offense. He relies a lot on that step back 3 but he doesn't get much separation on that shot. Didn't see much from midrange.

[The-Power]

I wasn't that impressed with his bag on offense. He relies a lot on that step back 3 but he doesn't get much separation on that shot. Didn't see much from midrange.

How do you explain his great 2P% and elite FTr if his bag on offense is lacking and he relies on step-back 3s?

[tontoz]

I wasn't that impressed with his bag on offense. He relies a lot on that step back 3 but he doesn't get much separation on that shot. Didn't see much from midrange.

How do you explain his great 2P% and elite FTr if his bag on offense is lacking and he relies on step-back 3s?

He was good at finishing at the rim and getting to the line. He shot 63% at the rim and was pretty aggressive looking to drive. When he couldn't get all the way to the rim he didn't have much to fall back on. I didn't see much in between game.

Maybe he has it but just didn't use it. I watched him several times and didn't see it.

[The-Power]

I wasn't that impressed with his bag on offense. He relies a lot on that step back 3 but he doesn't get much separation on that shot. Didn't see much from midrange.

How do you explain his great 2P% and elite FTr if his bag on offense is lacking and he relies on step-back 3s?

He was good at finishing at the rim and getting to the line. He shot 63% at the rim and was pretty aggressive looking to drive. When he couldn't get all the way to the rim he didn't have much to fall back on. I didn't see much in between game.

Maybe he has it but just didn't use it. I watched him several times and didn't see it.

But finishing at the rim and getting to the line is part of his bag on offense, no? He also had his share of pull-up and turnaround jumpers as well as little push shots from inside the arc that showed his creativity and versatility, though I doubt those were very efficient shots at this point in time.

[tontoz]

How do you explain his great 2P% and elite FTr if his bag on offense is lacking and he relies on step-back 3s?

He was good at finishing at the rim and getting to the line. He shot 63% at the rim and was pretty aggressive looking to drive. When he couldn't get all the way to the rim he didn't have much to fall back on. I didn't see much in between game.

Maybe he has it but just didn't use it. I watched him several times and didn't see it.

But finishing at the rim and getting to the line is part of his bag on offense, no? He also had his share of pull-up and turnaround jumpers as well as little push shots from inside the arc that showed his creativity and versatility, though I doubt those were very efficient shots at this point in time.

That is not what I saw, and that is not what his stats say. Half of his attempts from the field were 3s. He attacked the rim a lot which surely accounted for many of his 2 pt attempts. That doesn't leave a lot of attempts for other shots since he took 5 2 pt attempts per game.

The thing that bothered me the most was all the bad turnovers. He forced a lot of passes into very small windows that had very little chance to be completed. I didn't see any improvement in this area as the season progressed.

In his last 4 games he had 16 assists and 24 turnovers.

[76ciology]

As I said before, I hope he is good, I am Lithuanian fanboy, but I am just natural pessimist, and I simply do not see that big of the upside here. Late lottery I think is probably fine, guys like Dick and Jordan Hawkins were late lottery and I do not think Jaku is worse prospect than those. Tho, as Lithuanian, I still think Matas Buzelis has far bigger ceiling as NBA player, for our National team, jakučionis should be more important just cause we lack guard talent, we have enough tall guys, but for the NBA, I think KJ probably peaks as bench player, I definitley ain't seeing a top 3 pick. Tho Ace Bailey is projected to go top 3 and a lot of people saying he is just next Cam Reddish, so I guess it is crapshoot either way.

Sure you may ask! It's mostly that I watched a ton of film on him as I became more and more intrigued, and the defensive limitations really stood out to me. And when you are so limited defensively, every offensive shortcoming and question mark matters more. So it certainly didn't help that we now have to ask ourselves how much of the worsening performance can be attributed to injury versus regression to the mean, but it's only part of the equation. And as I noted elsewhere, I think the prospects in the 3-15 range is just so tough to separate that little details can sway me. That also means that I wouldn't argue with you if you told me you ranked him 3rd. I still think that's a justifiable stance.

Both Nojus and Kasparas averaged around 20 points per game on similar efficiency, but Kasparas is ranked higher largely due to his superior shot creation and playmaking. His positional size also gives him an edge.. standing 6’6” and operating as a lead guard, compared to Nojus, who profiles more as a 6’5” scoring wing with limited secondary playmaking. Kasparas brings a more complete and valuable skill set to the table.. he can hit step-back threes, get to the rim almost at will, run the pick-and-roll, create for others, rebound well, and still maintain a solid defensive motor despite his high usage. That versatility and two-way potential at the guard spot are much more enticing to NBA evaluators than a wing who doesn’t clearly stand out among his peers, which likely explains why Nojus has struggled to gain the same attention.

When you look at Kasparas’ numbers before and after his injury, the biggest drop-off was in his three-point shooting. He went from hitting 41.4% on 70 attempts to just 25% on 100 attempts. Whether that hot 15-game stretch was a fluke depends heavily on how much you believe in his shooting. Personally, I think it’s real. His free throw percentage has consistently hovered between 85–90%, which is typically a reliable indicator of shooting touch, and even post-injury he was still scoring at a 36% clip on step-back threes.. a very encouraging sign. During the stretch where he was shooting over 40% from three, he posted nearly a 10 BPM, showing just how impactful he can be when his shot is falling. Those numbers are good enough for top 3 pick consideration.

Yes, his turnover rate was high (around 25 TO%), but I think that’s something he can clean up, especially when sharing ball-handling duties. Ultimately, the reason I rank Kasparas so highly is the same reason why he’s getting more attention than Nojus.. the combination of skillset, positional size, and production, particularly in those 15 pre-injury games and the 17 pre-Illinois games, is exactly what the NBA values for star lead guard.

[Chi town]

I think KJ will be a stud and lead a good NBA offense. If he slips I bet someone trades up for him.

[JMAC3]

I think he could be an Andrew Nembhard type of player without the defense. Maybe not quite good enough to be the lead ball handler but a great off guard who can make some tough shots and still playmake for others at the same time. A good enough shooter but wouldn't call either guy a knockdown outside shooter. Can Jaku survive on defense though?

Overall I think his feel for the game and his size makes him an NBA player but ideally you still need the other guard next to him to be a better shooter, better defender and still be able to playmake- so he does bring some wonky fit scenarios.

[76ciology]

KJ also averaged 1.038 PPP in handoff sets and 1.073 PPP in isolation – both very good percentiles.

[Chi town]

I think he could be an Andrew Nembhard type of player without the defense. Maybe not quite good enough to be the lead ball handler but a great off guard who can make some tough shots and still playmake for others at the same time. A good enough shooter but wouldn't call either guy a knockdown outside shooter. Can Jaku survive on defense though?

Overall I think his feel for the game and his size makes him an NBA player but ideally you still need the other guard next to him to be a better shooter, better defender and still be able to playmake- so he does bring some wonky fit scenarios.

I like the Nembhard comp. He’s tough and gritty like him. KJ has a legit stepback and CS 3. I think he’d thrive early on off ball as a secondary creator.

He’d be a good fit for my Bulls as backup PG and secondary playmaker behind Giddey.

[The-Power]

I think he could be an Andrew Nembhard type of player without the defense. Maybe not quite good enough to be the lead ball handler but a great off guard who can make some tough shots and still playmake for others at the same time. A good enough shooter but wouldn't call either guy a knockdown outside shooter. Can Jaku survive on defense though?

Overall I think his feel for the game and his size makes him an NBA player but ideally you still need the other guard next to him to be a better shooter, better defender and still be able to playmake- so he does bring some wonky fit scenarios.

I like the Nembhard comp. He’s tough and gritty like him. KJ has a legit stepback and CS 3. I think he’d thrive early on off ball as a secondary creator.

He’d be a good fit for my Bulls as backup PG and secondary playmaker behind Giddey.

The Nembhard comp doesn't work on defense for me. Nembhard is elite at staying glued to players and that might well be his best trait. Jaku was among the worst I've seen in that regard.

[JMAC3]

I think he could be an Andrew Nembhard type of player without the defense. Maybe not quite good enough to be the lead ball handler but a great off guard who can make some tough shots and still playmake for others at the same time. A good enough shooter but wouldn't call either guy a knockdown outside shooter. Can Jaku survive on defense though?

Overall I think his feel for the game and his size makes him an NBA player but ideally you still need the other guard next to him to be a better shooter, better defender and still be able to playmake- so he does bring some wonky fit scenarios.

I like the Nembhard comp. He’s tough and gritty like him. KJ has a legit stepback and CS 3. I think he’d thrive early on off ball as a secondary creator.

He’d be a good fit for my Bulls as backup PG and secondary playmaker behind Giddey.

The Nembhard comp doesn't work on defense for me. Nembhard is elite at staying glued to players and that might well be his best trait. Jaku was among the worst I've seen in that regard.

Which is why the statement was "I think he could be an Andrew Nembhard type of player without the defense."

[Chi town]

I think he could be an Andrew Nembhard type of player without the defense. Maybe not quite good enough to be the lead ball handler but a great off guard who can make some tough shots and still playmake for others at the same time. A good enough shooter but wouldn't call either guy a knockdown outside shooter. Can Jaku survive on defense though?

Overall I think his feel for the game and his size makes him an NBA player but ideally you still need the other guard next to him to be a better shooter, better defender and still be able to playmake- so he does bring some wonky fit scenarios.

I like the Nembhard comp. He’s tough and gritty like him. KJ has a legit stepback and CS 3. I think he’d thrive early on off ball as a secondary creator.

He’d be a good fit for my Bulls as backup PG and secondary playmaker behind Giddey.

The Nembhard comp doesn't work on defense for me. Nembhard is elite at staying glued to players and that might well be his best trait. Jaku was among the worst I've seen in that regard.

He’s def not elite as a a glue on ball defender but he’s a good team defender and he competes. I think he will be average and could be one of your tough defenders that bodies up. Even more so if he’s a secondary playmaker guy. At Illinois he was the offense and expended lots of energy there.

[The-Power]

I like the Nembhard comp. He’s tough and gritty like him. KJ has a legit stepback and CS 3. I think he’d thrive early on off ball as a secondary creator.

He’d be a good fit for my Bulls as backup PG and secondary playmaker behind Giddey.

The Nembhard comp doesn't work on defense for me. Nembhard is elite at staying glued to players and that might well be his best trait. Jaku was among the worst I've seen in that regard.

Which is why the statement was "I think he could be an Andrew Nembhard type of player without the defense."

That was your statement (though ‘Nembhard without the defense’ isn't really Nembhard anymore IMO). The user I responded to called Jaku ‘tough and gritty’ like Nembhard, which to me at least relates to defense and is something I just don't see.