Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan - 2026 NBA Draft - Lottery pick

[Caneman786]

Something notable about Yaxel is even though he is old he is new to basketball. He started playing at age 15, so in effect he hasn't even been playing as long as Cameron Boozer. Something to think about.

[HMFFL]

How he shoots it in workouts will probably determine his ceiling, him ending the year on a heater from deep though is helping his draft stock.

I am not a huge believer in him longterm but if people want to look really sharp for the first two months of the year they should have him top 5 and demand crow to be eaten early.

This

He shoots light out, guarantees a floor of 20th pick; that's it. Shoots like crap, who knows. People might decide he is not going to do much in the NBA.

It's pretty clear the old man is years a head of others in college and not only because of his age.

He has the mindset to be successful. Regardless, how he is shooting right now, he will need to make his shots during his workouts. However, most of us know that he's going high in the draft he's too smart not too.

[tmorgan]

I just hope he goes somewhere he can get 20 mpg as a rookie and a chance to start by year two or three. He worked hard for this, has a very well-rounded game, and should fit in as a 4th option type in almost any kind of lineup.

He’ll take his lumps early on, particularly on switches to smalls, but he does all the stuff a complementary player needs to do. Extra pass, boxing out, solid screens, all the little stuff.

[Caneman786]

Spoiler:

Been digging into the 2026 class and I keep coming back to Lendeborg. Mocks have him going 12-15. The advanced numbers say he should be much higher. Here's the case.

16.7 BPM in the Big Ten as a junior at Michigan. That's the second highest BPM in the entire 2026 class behind only Cameron Boozer. Not the second highest among older prospects, the second highest period. Against Big Ten level competition every night. On a Michigan team that was ranked No. 1 at KenPom for a stretch and made a deep tournament run.

.646 TS, 9.8 OBPM, 6.9 DBPM. Per 36 he's putting up great numbers across the board with rebounding and shot blocking that play at the next level. He's not a one trick stat compiler, he's doing it on offense and defense at a real conference against real bodies.

For comparison the guys mocked above him in the 5-12 range are mostly producing 9-12 BPM. He's 4-5 BPM above several of them and the gap doesn't show up in mocks because age is doing all the work to push him down.

He's 23.7 years old. That is the cap and I'm not going to pretend it isn't.

History is not kind to 23+ year old prospects going in the lottery. Jaime Jaquez Jr. was 22.7, similar two way profile, went 18, has been fine but not a star. Lendeborg is a full year older than that. The standard age adjustment in draft models is roughly 1.0 BPM penalty per year above 19, which would knock his 16.7 down to roughly a 12.0 equivalent for a 19 year old. That puts him in the 8-12 range on most boards, not top 5.

So the real question is whether the production is goodenough to overcome the age, or whether the age is such a potential marker that the production doesn't matter.

I think the production wins.

A few reasons.

1. The two way nature of it. 9.8 OBPM and 6.9 DBPM. Most older college prospects who put up gaudy numbers do it on one end. Lendeborg is doing it on both. That's a different archetype than the Jaquez or Trey Murphy comp. Closer to a Toumani Camara or OG Anunoby type defensive impact paired with real offensive utility.

2. Conference matters. Big Ten this season was tier 1 alongside the Big 12. Michigan was the best team in the country analytically for stretches. Lendeborg wasn't padding stats against soft competition, he was anchoring an elite team in an elite conference.

3. He's NBA ready right now. The age penalty exists because younger players have more development runway. But Lendeborg can play meaningful rotation minutes from day one. A team picking 12-15 that needs immediate contribution gets something real out of him in year one, while the 19 year old upside picks at the same spot might not crack the rotation for two years.

4. The shooting is functional enough. 35.4% from 3 on decent volume isn't elite but it's good enough to keep defenses honest. You're not drafting him to be a primary creator, you're drafting him to be a do everything connector forward who guards 2-4 and makes the right play.

What's his ceiling?

Realistic best case is something like Toumani Camara or a poor man's Pascal Siakam. Two way forward who plays big minutes for a real team, makes an All Defense eventually, scores 15 PPG efficiently in a complementary role. That's a top 50 NBA player and absolutely worth a pick in the 8-12 range.

Realistic floor is rotation forward who never quite breaks through because the age caught up to him before the team got good. Still useful, still in the league, just not a difference maker. That's roughly the Jaquez outcome.

If I'm a team in the 8-12 range I'm taking him over the upside swings. The 19 year olds with the higher ceilings in that range come with real bust risk. Lendeborg is the high floor pick that probably won't bust because the production has been nice against too good of competition for too long.

If I'm picking 5-7 it's harder. The upside swing on a 19 year old is probably worth it that high. But by 8 he's the value pick.

Where do you guys have him?

I agree with you in a way. I think he's probably #6 to #8 for me in an objective draft board, but I would do an upside swing (like Ament, who has a lot of similarities to Lendeborg, actually) if picking for certain teams (and not just lottery teams, but also some play-in teams).

I also think his age doesn't limit him as much as you might think it does because of how late he started basketball, and also how he has been productive at younger ages (just in lower conferences). If he had better academics in high school, the guy probably would already be a productive, impactful role player in the NBA by now, maybe even in his second or third season.

[JMAC3]

He is incredibly immature as a person for his age, I think some teams will be lower on him for that reason.

[Onus]

He is incredibly immature as a person for his age, I think some teams will be lower on him for that reason.

What do you mean by immature?

[JMAC3]

He is incredibly immature as a person for his age, I think some teams will be lower on him for that reason.

What do you mean by immature?

Listen to him interview, he sounds like a high school sophomore in college the way he talks about opponents- not a 24 yr old 6 yr super senior.

I am sure a team like Miami or Golden State will snag him and he will be fine as the 6th banana, but I wouldn't touch him if I was a team still establishing their identity.

[Onus]

He is incredibly immature as a person for his age, I think some teams will be lower on him for that reason.

What do you mean by immature?

Listen to him interview, he sounds like a high school sophomore in college the way he talks about opponents- not a 24 yr old 6 yr super senior.

I am sure a team like Miami or Golden State will snag him and he will be fine as the 6th banana, but I wouldn't touch him if I was a team still establishing their identity.

Agreed a rebuilding or building team shouldn't be picking yaxel.

[kobyz]

His game reminds me Franz Wagner

[JMAC3]

or much older Derrick Williams.

[JMAC3]

Yaxel will be 23.7 yrs old on draft night.
I know everyone wants to default to he is different tho....
Here is the list of oldest top 20 picks recently in NBA.

Rank Player Draft Year Pick Draft Age
1 Chris Duarte 2021 13 24.1
2 Cam Johnson 2019 11 23.4
3 Tyler Hansbrough 2009 13 23.5
4 Dalton Knecht 2024 17 23.3
5 Wesley Johnson 2010 4 23.0
6 Buddy Hield 2016 6 22.6
7 Brandon Clarke 2019 21 22.7
8 Doug McDermott 2014 11 22.5
9 Obi Toppin 2020 8 22.4
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. 2023 18 22.4
11 Corey Kispert 2021 15 22.4
12 Jimmer Fredette 2011 10 22.4
13 Kris Dunn 2016 5 22.3
14 Devin Carter 2024 13 22.3
15 Matisse Thybulle 2019 20 22.3

Who is the best player? Did the NBA teams that selected know they were going to be bad when they picked them? Or did they talk themselves into this time it will be different-- just like we will with Yaxel.

[King Ken]

Yaxel is a winner likely going to OKC who knows what they are doing

[The-Power]

Yaxel will be 23.7 yrs old on draft night.
I know everyone wants to default to he is different tho....
Here is the list of oldest top 20 picks recently in NBA.

Rank Player Draft Year Pick Draft Age
1 Chris Duarte 2021 13 24.1
2 Cam Johnson 2019 11 23.4
3 Tyler Hansbrough 2009 13 23.5
4 Dalton Knecht 2024 17 23.3
5 Wesley Johnson 2010 4 23.0
6 Buddy Hield 2016 6 22.6
7 Brandon Clarke 2019 21 22.7
8 Doug McDermott 2014 11 22.5
9 Obi Toppin 2020 8 22.4
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. 2023 18 22.4
11 Corey Kispert 2021 15 22.4
12 Jimmer Fredette 2011 10 22.4
13 Kris Dunn 2016 5 22.3
14 Devin Carter 2024 13 22.3
15 Matisse Thybulle 2019 20 22.3

Who is the best player? Did the NBA teams that selected know they were going to be bad when they picked them? Or did they talk themselves into this time it will be different-- just like we will with Yaxel.

There are a bunch of players on the list that everyone should be excited to get with a late-lottery/teens pick. Obviously some have washed out of the NBA, too. It would be interesting to compare it to younger prospects picked in the teens.

[Onus]

Yaxel will be 23.7 yrs old on draft night.
I know everyone wants to default to he is different tho....
Here is the list of oldest top 20 picks recently in NBA.

Rank Player Draft Year Pick Draft Age
1 Chris Duarte 2021 13 24.1
2 Cam Johnson 2019 11 23.4
3 Tyler Hansbrough 2009 13 23.5
4 Dalton Knecht 2024 17 23.3
5 Wesley Johnson 2010 4 23.0
6 Buddy Hield 2016 6 22.6
7 Brandon Clarke 2019 21 22.7
8 Doug McDermott 2014 11 22.5
9 Obi Toppin 2020 8 22.4
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. 2023 18 22.4
11 Corey Kispert 2021 15 22.4
12 Jimmer Fredette 2011 10 22.4
13 Kris Dunn 2016 5 22.3
14 Devin Carter 2024 13 22.3
15 Matisse Thybulle 2019 20 22.3

Who is the best player? Did the NBA teams that selected know they were going to be bad when they picked them? Or did they talk themselves into this time it will be different-- just like we will with Yaxel.

There are a bunch of players on the list that everyone should be excited to get with a late-lottery/teens pick. Obviously some have washed out of the NBA, too. It would be interesting to compare it to younger prospects picked in the teens.

Yaxel was likely a 1st rd pick last year, the only reason he went back to college was because of NIL.

Add in most of these are guards who had a good year of shooting from 3 as an older player. But their ft% really weren't good, hiding that they aren't really that type of shooter.

Really looking at the bigs here Tyler, Clarke, and Obi. Tyler didn't make it because he couldn't bully people or out work them, that's not really Yaxel's game, plus he has prototypical size. Clarke has been a rotational big, he's just been injury prone. Obi has been fine as a rotational big.

Yaxel is being drafted as a versatile defender, who isn't going to be a negative offensively. I don't think anyone is drafting him because he has some untapped potential to be a star player. He'll be a rotational big, hopefully a starting pf.

What's more valuable though a starting pf who can guard 1-5 and isn't a negative on offense, or a 1 way scoring guard in today's NBA?

[Chuck Everett]

I highly doubt Sam Presti is drafting Lendeborg. He will pick another 19/20 year old with upside.

[Felixians4]

Clippers will not make wrong decision if they took Lendeborg. Playing safe sometimes is all you need. 24 yr old rookie and non efficient shooting problematic. He gonna be in first all rookie team and one of most versatile wings in game, proven winning impact and LAC could make some other trades to have another lottery pick to take a star young guard.

[Nate the Great]

If he’s there at 11, he really makes sense for the Warriors. Much more than most other prospects who might be there.

[GSWFan1994]

He's gonna be roughly 28 years old when his rookie contract ends. Think about it for a moment.

[Onus]

He's gonna be roughly 28 years old when his rookie contract ends. Think about it for a moment.

You get him at his athletic prime while on a rookie deal seems great to me. It's really only bad if he gets a 3rd contract, but if he's getting a 3rd contract you've already won.

[tmorgan]

Someone’s going to take this non-risk and be rewarded. Sure, there will be one or two guys much younger than Yaxel that go after him and have more career value, but you don’t know who they are, you’re guessing. Whether it’s GS at 11 or OKC at 12 or he goes even earlier, it’s a good pick. It just has almost no chance to be a great pick, but that’s only an issue if you think it’s one.

I really like Wagler as a future play and would take him 5th, so anything 6th or later makes sense to me unless the team in question has a weak starting guard to replace, then I’d go Acuff or Flemings or whatever.

Oh, and one other semi-correction… Yaxel is definitely a 4. He’s a smart defender, but he’ll struggle defending 3’s or guards with real quickness. I’m sure he can switch and look better than some slower 4’s, but it’s not something you’d want to happen often. On offense, he’ll be a capable spot up shooter with some playmaking ability, and he will be able to punish smalls on switches. He really is a lot like the current form of Tobias Harris except a little quicker and lighter, so the post ups won’t be quite as good.

Another thought: Imagine you are some team about to select with Ament and Lendeborg available. You’re pretty good on guards and you’re not considering picking one. What a perfect dichotomy these two guys are. Upside and raw and inefficient and young vs. developed and polished and efficient and old.