2022 NBA Draft

[Marcus]

Also won’t lie. Chet isn’t in my top 3 anymore. Just has too big of question marks. He has skills, just don’t think he has the physical attributes that will allow those skills to translate against NBA size and athleticism.

Who you replacing him with?

You know that's the thing, Im not sure. No one has really played himself above Chet. Its more along the lines of the more I watch Chet, the more I question how much of his skillset will translate to the next level. So its more along the lines of me feeling less and less confident taking Chet with a top 3 pick.

If you were to ask me right now what situation I would prefer

taking Chet at 3
or
taking Ivey at 5

Id rather be the team taking Ivey at 5.

That's the tough part for me as well, it's not like someone is playing their way into the spot but the Chet questions are real things.

Even from when he put the ball on the floor and had to go East West there's no real resistance to contact. He didn't look quick enough to turn the corner against bigs and the ball pressure from Moore (or maybe it was Keels) seemed to make him physically uncomfortable. As I mentioned before if you're not all in on using Chet like Jokic what are you really drafting, and if he's not strong enough to shield off ball pressure you lose that part. Chet gotta be a knockdown shooter rest of the way to sell big value for me.

[clyde21]

I don’t think there are 10 players in this draft I take ahead of Mark Williams. I need to do more research into the class to really determine that, but I was really impressed with his defense yesterday. He’s more than just a shotblocker. For an athletic dude with a 7’7 wingspan to also have a good understanding of positioning, knowing when to jump and when to just use his length to bother the shot, and even switching onto guards pretty well yesterday (I want to watch more to see his potential in that area), that’s valuable stuff. So far, he’s also been incredibly low turnover wise, which I like to see from bigs, and he’s also low in foul rate despite contesting so many shots.

Maybe he doesn’t have the upside of some of the other prospects but I think drafting with only consideration for best case scenario is a faulty strategy anyways. I’m fairly confident Mark Williams’ median outcome is like a Robert Williams-level player with the upside to be a Capela-level player. There won’t be 10 players in this draft who turn out better than Williams.

in the lotto you draft for upside, not median outcomes. even if Williams has a higher chance of reaching his best case scenario, you don't pull the trigger that high on this archetype, im sorry.

this is why a dude like Joshua Primo went 12th last year...everyone was surprised, I wasn't...you draft for upside in the lotto. that's just how it should be. you can find players like Mark Williams in FA every year.

no disrespect to Williams either I like him for what it is, but yea no way lotto.

In a weaker draft like this though? I’m not sure there are players around 10-11 who have outrageously more upside than Williams. Realistically you’re looking at slightly more upside with significantly worse median outcomes. I can agree in the upper half of the lotto you shoot mainly for upside but after that, especially when the draft class isn’t impressive, I’d be perfectly comfortable drafting a player with a good chance of being a high-level role player. It’s why I was so adamant on the Cavs picking Mikal Bridges in 2018. You knew he wouldn’t be a star yet I’m pretty sure half the teams in the lotto are now kicking themselves for passing up on him. Also I’m really not sure there are plenty of players in FA like Mark Williams every year. There are a lot of teams who need defensive bigs right now that can’t seem to find them. And how many of them have 7’7 wingspans?

Utah just drafted Udoka at the end of R1 couple of yrs ago who had a 7-7 wingspan, it's something but still not really huge factor, and yea you can find a lot bigs in FA to D up the paint and grab a few boards for you, it's not particularly hard or expensive. you can also find them later in the draft on a regular basis.

for example in 2021 draft you had:

Sharpe #27
Queta #39
Bassey #53
Sims #58

is Williams really that much better than these guys in terms of how his archetype is gonna project?

and yea, doesn't matter if it's a weak class, you always gotta aim high if you're picking lotto and really the top20 tbh, a guy like Mark Williams doesn't really change the trajectory of your team at all even if he reaches his high end outcome. also a Williams high end outcome would likely have less impact than a wing's or a combo guards medium outcome, that has to factor.

but at the end of the day different people have different draft philosophies.

[Duke4life831]

Who you replacing him with?

You know that's the thing, Im not sure. No one has really played himself above Chet. Its more along the lines of the more I watch Chet, the more I question how much of his skillset will translate to the next level. So its more along the lines of me feeling less and less confident taking Chet with a top 3 pick.

If you were to ask me right now what situation I would prefer

taking Chet at 3
or
taking Ivey at 5

Id rather be the team taking Ivey at 5.

That's the tough part for me as well, it's not like someone is playing their way into the spot but the Chet questions are real things.

Even from when he put the ball on the floor and had to go East West there's no real resistance to contact. He didn't look quick enough to turn the corner against bigs and the ball pressure from Moore (or maybe it was Keels) seemed to make him physically uncomfortable. As I mentioned before if you're not all in on using Chet like Jokic what are you really drafting, and if he's not strong enough to shield off ball pressure you lose that part. Chet gotta be a knockdown shooter rest of the way to sell big value for me.

Ya that's the thing. If youre taking Chet early in the draft, I assume you youre taking him that high because of his offensive skillset. He's a good defender but he's not life altering like a Mobley/AD kind of defensive big.

So with the focus of his offense being the primary skill set on why youre taking him so high. It worries me that Im not sold that he will have much of an offensive skillset in the NBA. I haven't seen wow ball skills from him so far in college so far. He's shooting 31% from 3 on low volume to start the year.

I just have too many question marks about how much of his game will translate to the next level. And to be clear I think Chet has been playing great for Gonzaga to start the year. His numbers have been solid, his impact numbers have been great. This is 100% about me having questions on what kind of skillset can he have at the NBA level.

[Duke4life831]

in the lotto you draft for upside, not median outcomes. even if Williams has a higher chance of reaching his best case scenario, you don't pull the trigger that high on this archetype, im sorry.

this is why a dude like Joshua Primo went 12th last year...everyone was surprised, I wasn't...you draft for upside in the lotto. that's just how it should be. you can find players like Mark Williams in FA every year.

no disrespect to Williams either I like him for what it is, but yea no way lotto.

In a weaker draft like this though? I’m not sure there are players around 10-11 who have outrageously more upside than Williams. Realistically you’re looking at slightly more upside with significantly worse median outcomes. I can agree in the upper half of the lotto you shoot mainly for upside but after that, especially when the draft class isn’t impressive, I’d be perfectly comfortable drafting a player with a good chance of being a high-level role player. It’s why I was so adamant on the Cavs picking Mikal Bridges in 2018. You knew he wouldn’t be a star yet I’m pretty sure half the teams in the lotto are now kicking themselves for passing up on him. Also I’m really not sure there are plenty of players in FA like Mark Williams every year. There are a lot of teams who need defensive bigs right now that can’t seem to find them. And how many of them have 7’7 wingspans?

Utah just drafted Udoka at the end of R1 couple of yrs ago who had a 7-7 wingspan, it's something but still not really huge factor, and yea you can find a lot bigs in FA to D up the paint and grab a few boards for you, it's not particularly hard or expensive. you can also find them later in the draft on a regular basis.

for example in 2021 draft you had:

Sharpe #27
Queta #39
Bassey #53
Sims #58

is Williams really that much better than these guys in terms of how his archetype is gonna project?

and yea, doesn't matter if it's a weak class, you always gotta aim high if you're picking lotto and really the top20 tbh, a guy like Mark Williams doesn't really change the trajectory of your team at all even if he reaches his high end outcome. also a Williams high end outcome would likely have less impact than a wing's or a combo guards medium outcome, that has to factor.

but at the end of the day different people have different draft philosophies.

I think Mark is a better prospect than any of those guys. But with that said, I dont see the value of taking him high in the draft. Even if Mark is the top level of this archetype of a player, I dont think the impact difference is still great enough to make him worth a top 10ish or lotto pick, compared to say an average raw defensive big that you can get early 2nd.

This is why I dont think about taking raw athletic/defensive only bigs higher than 25 in the draft (I feel like if your picking 25th-30th in the 1st, youre an elite team and using a 1st on a guy like this can be worth it).

Gobert: 27th overall pick
Capella: 25th overall pick
Williams: 27th overall pick
Gafford: 38th overall pick
Mitchell Robinson: 36th overall pick

Those 5 guys make up half of the top 10 in blocked shots at the moment so far this season. Those are also kind of the who's who in defensive 1st bigs. You can throw Jarrett Allen in there as well (22nd overall pick).

That to me is when a player of this archetype enters my draft board. Basically the ideal 1st round pick for already elite teams who could use a 5, or the ideal 2nd round pick for a bad lotto team. But ya raw athletic 5s or defense only 5s, 25th pick and on is where the value becomes worth it. Not because they will end up being the 25th or worse player in the draft, but that is the time where you can find these guys in most drafts.

[BostonCouchGM]

there was a lot of talent on the floor last night. I think Duke had 3 first rounders in their starting lineup. Wendell Moore Jr, should he improve his handle, has a chance to be a well above average combo guard in the NBA. I think I consider him mid-late lottery because he's such a good defender. Williams looks like a Capela type and will for sure be drafted in the first. There still considerable upside for him but he should start for 10 years. Banchero is right there with Zion, Hill and Tatum for best Duke talents of all time. I'm very concerned about his propensity to cramp though. That could lead to soft tissue injuries which can be nagging and keep him off the floor. He has everything you'd want from a 3/4 in today's game. He should go #1.

Chet appears to be polarizing. Like usual, people are looking through a lens at him now without the ability to project going forward. He's every bit the prospect Porzingis was but he has a better feel for the game, handle and motor on defense. He's definitely going top 3. He absolutely has to hit the sauce though and put on a good 40 lbs of quality muscle. If he does that he's a superstar. But will he?

[spree8]

I’d even take Keegan Murray over Chet honestly. He looks like a pf version of Mikal.

[mattao313]

Am i tripping Banchero looked the same height as Chet. No way he's 7'2 or whatever

Sent from my moto g play (2021) using RealGM mobile app

[clyde21]

Am i tripping Banchero looked the same height as Chet. No way he's 7'2 or whatever

Sent from my moto g play (2021) using RealGM mobile app

he's not 7-2, closer to 7-0, and he looks kinda shorter than too because he's hunched over usually, maybe it's because of his shoulder structure not sure. Paolo is 6-10 in shoes most likely.

[mattao313]

Am i tripping Banchero looked the same height as Chet. No way he's 7'2 or whatever

Sent from my moto g play (2021) using RealGM mobile app

he's not 7-2, closer to 7-0, and he looks kinda shorter than too because he's hunched over usually, maybe it's because of his shoulder structure not sure. Paolo is 6-10 in shoes most likely.

That's really good for Banchero's stock if true. I agree about Chet he probably has a long neck or something

Sent from my moto g play (2021) using RealGM mobile app

[CptCrunch]

Am i tripping Banchero looked the same height as Chet. No way he's 7'2 or whatever

Sent from my moto g play (2021) using RealGM mobile app

he's not 7-2, closer to 7-0, and he looks kinda shorter than too because he's hunched over usually, maybe it's because of his shoulder structure not sure. Paolo is 6-10 in shoes most likely.

Are we worried about Chet's hunch at all? His back is hunched and neck 75 degrees forward even when living his normal life.

[MotownMadness]

Banchero
Jabari Smith
Chet

That's how I'm ranking them at the moment and I'm sure that will change throughout the season

[Big J]

Am i tripping Banchero looked the same height as Chet. No way he's 7'2 or whatever

Sent from my moto g play (2021) using RealGM mobile app

he's not 7-2, closer to 7-0, and he looks kinda shorter than too because he's hunched over usually, maybe it's because of his shoulder structure not sure. Paolo is 6-10 in shoes most likely.

Are we worried about Chet's hunch at all? His back is hunched and neck 75 degrees forward even when living his normal life.

KD does the same thing, so probably not much of a concern.

[NYPiston]

I have Mark Williams above Chet on defense.

So now if we are drafting Chet on offense, he has to be Durant to work out? How many Durant have we drafted. Chet scares me with question marks

Paolo is a basically a Melo. I don't see him being a superstar top 5 in the league unless he pulls an outlier developmental path. Good to great player just not amazing.

Damn, it's like some of you guys are expecting these top prospects to be Lebron or it's a disappointment. Same was done with the top prospects last season, just picking apart their games like crazy. A Melo is a Hall of Fame NBA player, that would be an incredible outcome for any prospect.

I just don't know how anybody can watch Paolo and be anything but really impressed with his offensive skillset. He stands out big time among his peers and he's just breaking into the college game. Yes, he's a bit of an enigma defensively but who cares, defense can be learned over time or it could be sheltered on an NBA roster if it becomes a career long issue. How many prospects are elite offensively and defensively at this age anyway? What can't be taught is those offensive gifts and he's extremely gifted offensively.

[dukeknicksirish]

Raptors salivating at the chance to have Chet fall to them so they can continue to run a 5 man switch defense lol

[dukeknicksirish]

I have Mark Williams above Chet on defense.

So now if we are drafting Chet on offense, he has to be Durant to work out? How many Durant have we drafted. Chet scares me with question marks

Paolo is a basically a Melo. I don't see him being a superstar top 5 in the league unless he pulls an outlier developmental path. Good to great player just not amazing.

Damn, it's like some of you guys are expecting these top prospects to be Lebron or it's a disappointment. Same was done with the top prospects last season, just picking apart their games like crazy. A Melo is a Hall of Fame NBA player, that would be an incredible outcome for any prospect.

I just don't know how anybody can watch Paolo and be anything but really impressed with his offensive skillset. He stands out big time among his peers and he's just breaking into the college game. Yes, he's a bit of an enigma defensively but who cares, defense can be learned over time or it could be sheltered on an NBA roster if it becomes a career long issue. How many prospects are elite offensively and defensively at this age anyway? What can't be taught is those offensive gifts and he's extremely gifted offensively.

If only his mid range game was good, oh wait. If only his three point shot looked good, oh wait. If only he had the size/strength to play the 4 in the league, oh wait. lol every flaw this kid had in high school, he has thus far proven to improve on it and has made great improvements to his outside shooting and defense. If you told me id be drafting 19 year old Carmelo (but taller and stronger) as my #1 pick, no way am i upset

[babyjax13]

Anyone caught Antonio Reaves (Illinois State)? 6-6, scoring at a nice clip and shooting well. No idea if there is anything there.

[WargamesX]

I’d even take Keegan Murray over Chet honestly. He looks like a pf version of Mikal.

Mikal ain’t ever score like Keegan though

[spree8]

I’d even take Keegan Murray over Chet honestly. He looks like a pf version of Mikal.

Mikal ain’t ever score like Keegan though

His 18ppg in Villanova is prob equal to 25ppg in Iowa

[babyjax13]

I’d even take Keegan Murray over Chet honestly. He looks like a pf version of Mikal.

Mikal ain’t ever score like Keegan though

His 18ppg in Villanova is prob equal to 25ppg in Iowa

Murray is doing it in 24 minutes a game.

[Duke4life831]

Thoughts on recent play of TyTy? After getting completely locked up by Keels that opening night, 5 out of his 6 games he has shot over 50% from the field (6/13 in the one game he didnt) and is shooting 43% from 3 in that span as well.

But with that said, UK has been playing the bottom of the barrel when it comes to opposition. Outside of Ohio their opposition has a combined record of 5-27 so far to start this season.