2024 NBA Draft Thread

[FarBeyondDriven]

Gun to my head lottery as of right now (in no order)

Sarr
Holland
Buzelis
Collier
Salaun
Risarcher
Castle
Walter
Williams
Topic
Carrington
Ajinca
Bradshaw
McCain

[Chuck Everett]

Perhaps once we get into conference play starting this week, some consistency will appear. This board has been all doom and gloom since no one has separated. Season is still not over yet and guys are about to have their toughest games of the season. Let's see if the wheat separates from the chaff. I still like Tyrese Proctor and wonder about how Duke will gel now that he is back from injury.

I also still would take Clingan in the late lotto if I had a pick and needed a rim protector.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Givony moved Edey up to #15, but it feels like less fulfilling my "hey, you've got to take a shot on this guy, he's the best college basketball player in the last 25 years" agenda and more Givony giving up on this draft and viewing every player in it as absolutely terrible so why not take Edey.

Givony has given up Collier and Holland in particular. Collier probably has to go back to school, but Holland is going to be a pretty controversial prospect at draft time.

I don't think anyone projected him as a historically bad shooter based on his high school performance? His FT% is also above 70% which isn't horrible... But just... 21% from three on high volume... What in the world is happening?

[Catchall]

How do people see this compared to the 2020 Draft?

There isn't a clear #1 prospect with a ceiling like Ant Edwards.
Sarr is likely a better prospect than Wiseman, and there's more sample size to evaluate.
I could make an argument that Topic is at least comparable to Ball, and statistically Topic is clearly a better prospect.
Holland is probably a slightly better prospect compared to Patrick Williams, but for different reasons.
Personally, I'd say JaKobe Walter is pretty comparable to Devin Vassell.
I can't point to someone in this draft and compare him as a prospect to Haliburton.
Reed looks like a stronger prospect than Tyrese Maxey entering the draft, though Maxey's development has been a nice surprise, especially shooting.

I can't say there's a clear perennial All Star in this draft. If there is, it's because Topic really hits and becomes similar to a young James Harden, imo. There are two French wings, Risacher and Salaun, that should be capable 3D wings with a bit extra. Tyler Smith looks like a decent 3D big.

I think there's a good chance that Cody Williams becomes the player that people were hoping Cam Reddish would be (though that's 2019).

[Catchall]

Givony moved Edey up to #15, but it feels like less fulfilling my "hey, you've got to take a shot on this guy, he's the best college basketball player in the last 25 years" agenda and more Givony giving up on this draft and viewing every player in it as absolutely terrible so why not take Edey.

Givony has given up Collier and Holland in particular. Collier probably has to go back to school, but Holland is going to be a pretty controversial prospect at draft time.

I don't think anyone projected him as a historically bad shooter based on his high school performance? His FT% is also above 70% which isn't horrible... But just... 21% from three on high volume... What in the world is happening?

Holland's physical tools give him a platform to build upon, but everything will depend on his development once he gets in the league. He could end up being anything from Jaylen Brown to Nassir Little.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I don't think you can be a viable wing in the NBA at less than 35% from three.

If Holland was shooting 30% from three, then whatever, he can go top 3. But 21% from three is so bad. He needs to improve this percentage before the end of the season but... We're pretty close to the end of his season most likely...

Holland's team being 4-16 on the season also does not give much hope.

[Catchall]

I don't think you can be a viable wing in the NBA at less than 35% from three.

If Holland was shooting 30% from three, then whatever, he can go top 3. But 21% from three is so bad. He needs to improve this percentage before the end of the season but... We're pretty close to the end of his season most likely...

Yeah, the shooting has to happen, or he'll become a defensive specialist and slasher. If you look at Jaylen Brown and Jonathan Kuminga at about the same age, they weren't making their shots either.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I don't think Holland as a defensive specialist at 30% from three would play in the NBA at all.

Ausar Thompson is basically the ideal wing outside of shooting and he is unplayable on the worst team in NBA history.

[clyde21]

im disappointed that Proctor hasn't looked that much better this year, he was one of the guys coming back I thought would prop up the top of this class but hasn't been the case so far.

[azcatz11]

im disappointed that Proctor hasn't looked that much better this year, he was one of the guys coming back I thought would prop up the top of this class but hasn't been the case so far.

I don’t get it either with him. He looked way better last year. Maybe it’s the injury. I think Flip is hurting his development

[clyde21]

im disappointed that Proctor hasn't looked that much better this year, he was one of the guys coming back I thought would prop up the top of this class but hasn't been the case so far.

I don’t get it either with him. He looked way better last year. Maybe it’s the injury. I think Flip is hurting his development

i dont think hes worse than last year by any stretch just hasn't made as big of a jump as I hoped

[Chuck Everett]

im disappointed that Proctor hasn't looked that much better this year, he was one of the guys coming back I thought would prop up the top of this class but hasn't been the case so far.

I don’t get it either with him. He looked way better last year. Maybe it’s the injury. I think Flip is hurting his development

i dont think hes worse than last year by any stretch just hasn't made as big of a jump as I hoped

Duke has too many guards IMO. Jeremy Roach probably should have been quietly pushed out the door to transfer or go pro (I think he may have already graduated).

[EvanZ]

I like Castle. He is near the top of the chart in athleticism, passing and feel. Can't shoot, but a more spry and quick, slightly smaller Scottie Barnes still has some high-end outcomes.

He’s worse than RJB as a Freshman


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[FarBeyondDriven]

lots of good tape put up today for many of the lottery talents.

Walter is a perfect 2 for today's NBA. I think he's a top 5 lock at this point. Maybe even higher.

Carrington had a dreadful shooting night but continues to put up numbers and this against a better opponent in NC. Some pull up jumpers, pull up threes, runs the point real well. Just the fact that he's doing this as one of the youngest in the class and with his size is impressive. Their coach sucks so most of what he gets is off-script.

Castle finally looks healthy again. A couple of alley oop dunks, he blocked a 3 pt shot and I think he's the best point guard prospect in the draft. The fact that arguably the best college coach has him starting on a veteran team with Finals aspirations should tell you all you need to know.

If you could combine the Duke guards into one player they'd be near perfect. The PG, size and defense of Foster, the bag of Proctor and the off-ball shooting of McCain would make for a #1 pick. As it stands, McCain looks like Bane/Hield 2.0. The best off-ball player in the draft and he's got better size than both Sheppard and Dillingham so I think he could sneak into the lottery.

[FarBeyondDriven]

this shouldn't need to be explained to people but here goes anyway. 18-20 year old kids aren't finished products. Often times, the very last thing that they develop is an outside shot. Shooting is definitely what ends up separating the wheat from the chaff in the NBA but you can't expect kids to be great shooters right away. The guys that are are outliers become multiple time all-stars, make all-nba teams and even the HOF. It's very rare. So casuals really have to slow their roll condemning these kids before they've even had a chance to work with professional coaches.

Jabari Smith shot 31% as a rookie and is now at 37%
Banchero shot 30% as a rookie and is now at 36%
LaMelo barely over 35% as a rookie and is now 39%
Anthony Edwards was a 33% as a rookie and is now 38%
Jaylen Brown was below 30% in college and has settled in as an above average shooter as a pro for years
Kawhi was 20% as a freshmen then 29% as a sophomore. He worked on his shot the Summer he was drafted and has been an elite 3 pt shooter since his rookie season.
Donovan Mitchell was a 25% from three as a freshmen and improved to 35% as a sophomore and has been an above average shooter as a pro

SGA, Luka, Giannis, Butler, DeRozan, Brown, Zion, Siakam, and many more throughout history have all been "viable wings" in the NBA shooting below 35% from three. Many guards like Rose, Trae, Westbrook, Wall and Morant have had NBA success too. In fact, most of these guys have made all-NBA teams and also been in the running for MVP awards despite not being great 3pt shooters.

It helps to actually know a little bit of NBA history before yapping about things you have no idea about. There's far less embarrassment that way.

[HadAnEffectHere]

So like, my post was literally "if Holland was at 30%, that wouldn't be great, but it would be passable, but he's at 21%"

And 21% is obscenely bad.

Giannis is 6'11" with a 7'5" wingspan and is one of the strongest players in NBA history, Ja is arguably the most explosive PG in NBA history.

Ausar Thompson is probably one of the highest BBIQ+athleticism prospects of all time and he can dribble and defend and he is barely playing on the worst team in NBA history because you can't play in the NBA anymore (with very very very very few exceptions) unless you're a big man or a really good shooter.

And Holland hasn't shown he's one of those obscenely special guys who can make up for garbage shooting, lol. His season has been mediocre and his team blows, they're 4-16 and get blown out every game even with Matas back (who is having a worse season to be clear)

[Hal14]

I don't think you can be a viable wing in the NBA at less than 35% from three.

Of course you can. Jaylen Brown made 2nd team all-NBA last season while shooting 33% from 3. LeBron has had a bunch of seasons below 35% from 3. Herb Jones has shot below that mark and many others.

Ausar is shooting poorly from 3 but is still considered a top 5 or 6 rookie in the league right now.

I don't think you can be a viable wing in the NBA at less than 35% from three.

If Holland was shooting 30% from three, then whatever, he can go top 3. But 21% from three is so bad.

If you include the 2 games vs Perth, as well as the intercontinental cup games he's at 24.7% from 3. Still not good, but better than 21%.

His shooting form looks decent, the mechanics don't look broken. He's very young (doesn't turn 19 till July), is shooting a respectable 75% FT and is also shooting the 3 at pretty good volume (3 per game, 4.5 per 40 mins)..so there's a few indicators there that the 3FG% will improve over time. Also, consider that lots of the 3's he has taken are off the dribble, which of course are harder to make than Catch and shoot spot ups. I don't have the numbers handy but I'm sure his 3 FG% off the catch is much better.

Also, consider that he is shooting from the NBA 3 pt line in the G league, compared to all these college guys and overseas players who will be at more of a disadvantage when they get to the NBA since they will have to go through the adjustment period to the NBA 3 pt line that Holland is going through right now (also a guy shooting 35% from 3 in NCAA would probably only be like 32% if he was in the G league shooting from the deeper 3 pt line). If Holland was in college, he'd probably be around 27-29% from 3 right now..not far off from where Jaylen Brown and Ziaire Williams were during their freshman season..

Also, consider that while NBA league average is 36% from 3, the average age of NBA players is about 26/27 yrs old. Many NBA players have been in the league for 8+ seasons so of course they will be better shooters than a 18 yr old kid in the G league who's adjusting to the NBA 3 pt line the season after he was playing HS ball. Comparing the 2 is pointless.

If we look at last year's draft class and the 3 FG% they had last season during their pre-draft year, the average % was about 31%. So shooting 30% as an 18 yr old draft prospect is really not that bad. It's just that these guys are much younger and earlier on in their development than NBA players who have been in the league for 5+ seasons..

He needs to improve this percentage before the end of the season but... We're pretty close to the end of his season most likely...

Ignite is playing 50 games this season. They're less than halfway through their season. There's still a long way to go..

With all of that being said, yes of course Holland's shooting is a concern. I no longer have him top 5 on my board. I still have him top 10 but that could change..

Worst case scenario, he goes mid 2nd round like guys like Rupert, Cissoko, Walsh, GG Jackson, Julian Phillips, Josh Minott and Kendall Brown did - all wings with good athleticism, good defense who struggled to shoot..2024 is a weaker draft class though so Holland is pretty much guaranteed to go in the 1st round.

[Hal14]

I don't think Holland as a defensive specialist at 30% from three would play in the NBA at all.

Ausar Thompson is basically the ideal wing outside of shooting and he is unplayable on the worst team in NBA history.

Ausar is the 6th best rookie in the league:
https://sportsnaut.com/nba-rookie-of-the-year-candidates/

[EvanZ]

I don't think Holland as a defensive specialist at 30% from three would play in the NBA at all.

Ausar Thompson is basically the ideal wing outside of shooting and he is unplayable on the worst team in NBA history.

Ausar is the 6th best rookie in the league:
https://sportsnaut.com/nba-rookie-of-the-year-candidates/

The problem is you can look good as a rookie without shooting well (see Giddey or even Rubio). But eventually it catches up with your scouting report and the league figures you out. Long term there are very few wings/guards that can truly thrive without shooting. It's not something I'm ever comfortable betting on.

[Hal14]

I don't think Holland as a defensive specialist at 30% from three would play in the NBA at all.

Ausar Thompson is basically the ideal wing outside of shooting and he is unplayable on the worst team in NBA history.

Ausar is the 6th best rookie in the league:
https://sportsnaut.com/nba-rookie-of-the-year-candidates/

The problem is you can look good as a rookie without shooting well (see Giddey or even Rubio). But eventually it catches up with your scouting report and the league figures you out. Long term there are very few wings/guards that can truly thrive without shooting. It's not something I'm ever comfortable betting on.

Right and no NBA player has ever improved their shooting after their rookie season

For crying out loud, Holland isn't even a rookie yet. He's an 18 yr old kid, who just went from HS to pro ball, is still adjusting to the NBA 3 pt line and is playing every game against teams that have far more talent, size and experience than his team has..