2024 NBA Draft Thread

[EvanZ]

Keep in mind that while players do often improve their shooting it usually has to be at a level that they can get on the court and stay on the court while they improve it. That is not always easy if a player really can't shoot at all right away.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Ausar Thompson has had his minutes cut drastically because his shooting is so bad that it completely suffocates the Pistons' offense. Cade has been way better since Ausar got benched and minimized.

When Ausar is on the court, the Pistons have an ORtg of 105.6 (the worst in the league and one of the worst marks of all time relative to average ORtg), it jumps by 8.5 points when he's off the court.

Now, Ausar is a special case as he's so gifted at everything else and so smart but is the worst shooter in the NBA... But Holland is worse at pretty much everything other than shooting and Holland is only shooting 21% from three (compared to Ausar shooting 15% from three in the NBA and 30% in OTE).

There's an 8.7% chance (assuming independence which isn't great but...) that a 30% three point shooter could have a stretch as bad (or worse than) the stretch as Holland is having so... There's a chance he turns this around... We'll see.

[EvanZ]

One thing Ron Holland has going for him that works against the Thompson twins and a reason I was much lower on them is his age. Holland is July 2005, which makes him one of the youngest in this class.

Also while using the binomial distribution always seems impressive to people with little knowledge of probability, I’ve found it doesn’t usually work that well for making strong conclusions about shooting streaks or slumps. The assumption of independence is wildly off.

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[HadAnEffectHere]

Yeah, there was no chance that the Thompsons were ever going to learn how to shoot since they had spent so many years trying to learn how to shoot with no results. Holland being so young (and maybe having focused less on that? He seems to have tried to improve as a shot creator recently) gives him more hope from a shooting perspective.

But 21% is a horrid baseline to start from and makes me very anxious believing in him unless he turns those percentages around in the rest of the season.

[EvanZ]

Correct me if I’m wrong but we’re talking about less than 50 attempts? For an NBA player that many attempts is like 5-10 games. Anyone can go through shooting slumps. If he had shot incredibly in 50 attempts I’d also be hesitant to claim anything strong about his shooting. It’s just not a very large sample. His FT shooting is under 70% (also small sample!) which doesn’t help his case. I don’t know what his high school stats were. This is not to say I think he’s a good shooter by any means. So far all signs suggest it’s an issue. I’m just saying it may not be as irreconcilable an issue as is being made out.

I haven’t analyzed his form much but if I were really digging in that would probably be more important for me at this point than looking solely at his current limited sample size.


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[EvanZ]

Also 11-47 actually is 21% chance not 8%. It looks like you took the exact probability of hitting 11 shots when you should have taken the probability of hitting 0-11. So even by the coin flips we can’t make any strong conclusions yet.


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[FarBeyondDriven]

I don't think you can be a viable wing in the NBA at less than 35% from three.

Of course you can. Jaylen Brown made 2nd team all-NBA last season while shooting 33% from 3. LeBron has had a bunch of seasons below 35% from 3. Herb Jones has shot below that mark and many others.

Ausar is shooting poorly from 3 but is still considered a top 5 or 6 rookie in the league right now.

I don't think you can be a viable wing in the NBA at less than 35% from three.

If Holland was shooting 30% from three, then whatever, he can go top 3. But 21% from three is so bad.

If you include the 2 games vs Perth, as well as the intercontinental cup games he's at 24.7% from 3. Still not good, but better than 21%.

His shooting form looks decent, the mechanics don't look broken. He's very young (doesn't turn 19 till July), is shooting a respectable 75% FT and is also shooting the 3 at pretty good volume (3 per game, 4.5 per 40 mins)..so there's a few indicators there that the 3FG% will improve over time. Also, consider that lots of the 3's he has taken are off the dribble, which of course are harder to make than Catch and shoot spot ups. I don't have the numbers handy but I'm sure his 3 FG% off the catch is much better.

Also, consider that he is shooting from the NBA 3 pt line in the G league, compared to all these college guys and overseas players who will be at more of a disadvantage when they get to the NBA since they will have to go through the adjustment period to the NBA 3 pt line that Holland is going through right now (also a guy shooting 35% from 3 in NCAA would probably only be like 32% if he was in the G league shooting from the deeper 3 pt line). If Holland was in college, he'd probably be around 27-29% from 3 right now..not far off from where Jaylen Brown and Ziaire Williams were during their freshman season..

Also, consider that while NBA league average is 36% from 3, the average age of NBA players is about 26/27 yrs old. Many NBA players have been in the league for 8+ seasons so of course they will be better shooters than a 18 yr old kid in the G league who's adjusting to the NBA 3 pt line the season after he was playing HS ball. Comparing the 2 is pointless.

If we look at last year's draft class and the 3 FG% they had last season during their pre-draft year, the average % was about 31%. So shooting 30% as an 18 yr old draft prospect is really not that bad. It's just that these guys are much younger and earlier on in their development than NBA players who have been in the league for 5+ seasons..

He needs to improve this percentage before the end of the season but... We're pretty close to the end of his season most likely...

Ignite is playing 50 games this season. They're less than halfway through their season. There's still a long way to go..

With all of that being said, yes of course Holland's shooting is a concern. I no longer have him top 5 on my board. I still have him top 10 but that could change..

Worst case scenario, he goes mid 2nd round like guys like Rupert, Cissoko, Walsh, GG Jackson, Julian Phillips, Josh Minott and Kendall Brown did - all wings with good athleticism, good defense who struggled to shoot..2024 is a weaker draft class though so Holland is pretty much guaranteed to go in the 1st round.

one of your better posts then you had to go and ruin it with these awful takes. You and yours just can't help yourself. Mid 2nd round? You're actually suggesting there's even a remote possibility Holland goes in the 2nd round? Someone else claimed Collier might not be a first rounder as well You guys need serious help with your evaluation skills. Or, maybe it's trolling and if that's the case you really need to be more subtle

[EvanZ]

Says the guy who has Kwame Evans late first lol


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[FarBeyondDriven]

So like, my post was literally "if Holland was at 30%, that wouldn't be great, but it would be passable, but he's at 21%"

And 21% is obscenely bad.

Giannis is 6'11" with a 7'5" wingspan and is one of the strongest players in NBA history, Ja is arguably the most explosive PG in NBA history.

Ausar Thompson is probably one of the highest BBIQ+athleticism prospects of all time and he can dribble and defend and he is barely playing on the worst team in NBA history because you can't play in the NBA anymore (with very very very very few exceptions) unless you're a big man or a really good shooter.

And Holland hasn't shown he's one of those obscenely special guys who can make up for garbage shooting, lol. His season has been mediocre and his team blows, they're 4-16 and get blown out every game even with Matas back (who is having a worse season to be clear)

more nonsense. First of all, Holland is shooting 23% from three. Second, his season hasn't been mediocre. He's averaging 19-7-3 and averaging over two steals and a block per game. Scoot was considered generational or at least an elite prospect his first seasons with Ignite and he averaged 14-5-4 with less than two steals a game and shooting 17% from three.

It's been dumbed down for people before but Ignite isn't coaching to win games. They sub 4 sometimes 5 guys at a time in their effort to give everyone run. The offense is so basic that it's a wonder anyone can do well. It's not a reflection on Holland, Buzelis, Almansa, Smith and Sane any more than it was on Scoot and Miller when they went 11-21 last season. This is a poorly constructed roster that has also dealt with injuries. They're facing well-constructed teams full of older, hungry, former draft picks. This is another example of someone reading box-scores and standings to come up with uneducated takes.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Says the guy who has Kwame Evans late first lol

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not that I put much if any stock into what publications say but there seems to be more people aligned with me. But I'm sure you're right and he'll be a top 10 pick. You seem like you know what you're talking about and aren't embarrassed daily because you're a glutton for punishment

https://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

2nd round

https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

undrafted

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2024-nba-mock-draft/

pick #28

https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/2024_nba_first_round_mock_draft_010424/s1__39633499#slide_29

not in first round

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10099402-2024-nba-mock-draft-full-two-round-predictions-biggest-risers-and-fallers

undrafted

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft/

not in the first round

[EvanZ]

Says the guy who has Kwame Evans late first lol

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not that I put much if any stock into what publications say but there seems to be more people aligned with me. But I'm sure you're right and he'll be a top 10 pick. You seem like you know what you're talking about and aren't embarrassed daily because you're a glutton for punishment

https://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

2nd round

https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

undrafted

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2024-nba-mock-draft/

pick #28

https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/2024_nba_first_round_mock_draft_010424/s1__39633499#slide_29

not in first round

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10099402-2024-nba-mock-draft-full-two-round-predictions-biggest-risers-and-fallers

undrafted

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft/

not in the first round

Quoting because all these takes will look foolish in time and I want it on record


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[EvanZ]

This is why I don’t look at mocks btw. They are mostly for the sheep who can’t trust their own eyes and brains.


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[HadAnEffectHere]

Also 11-47 actually is 21% chance not 8%. It looks like you took the exact probability of hitting 11 shots when you should have taken the probability of hitting 0-11. So even by the coin flips we can’t make any strong conclusions yet.


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No, I didn't make that mistake, you forgot to add his showcase stats+regular season stats together as he's now 13/61 from three.

(I hate how G League stats are presented and it's very easy to make this mistake).

13/61 is still a small enough sample size where it is reasonably possible to turn it around but... I would like to see a better percentage by the end of his season (and I think he was supposed to only play 30-35 games this year?)

[FarBeyondDriven]

7 assists and no turnovers for Collier tonight. Uh oh, might not be able to use his poor assist to turnover ratio narrative much longer if he keeps this up. And USC won too. I thought all they did was lose.

Bronny is starting to get acclimated. He's flashing on defense quite a bit. USC has awful interior players and small wings so they can't really afford to go small ball and start him like he deserves. As is, Ellis is a massive defensive liability but he's on the floor because he's a walking bucket. He's a very similar player to Dillingham and will likely have the same amount of success at the next level.

Collier is falling down my board and out of the top 5 for now but not because he isn't talented but because I've now seen several of his games and he looks like he's coasting. As if he's just trying to get through the college season healthy so he can get to the NBA. It's a red flag. Maybe he's saving his energy for a potential tournament run or maybe he's being coached to tone it down? Regardless, I don't like it.

Stojakovic is easily Stanford's most talented player but he doesn't start or get nearly the usage he should. They're probably hoping to keep up for another season. He reminds me of a cross between Huerter and Herro on offense but he's a smarter player than both and a better defender. I'm very high on him.

That reminds me, there's something I've been thinking for awhile. I think it's time to come to grips with the fact that many of these OAD talents will be forced to return to school because they were mishandled or chose poorly when it comes to where they went to school. It could hurt this class but it does mean it'll likely improve next year's class. Next year won't have the international class 2024 does but it should have better freshmen and potentially better returners depending on who declares. A few guys I could see end up returning are Sheppard, Dillingham, Edwards, Foster, McCain, Stojakovic, Mgbako, Missi, Ndongo, Bronny, Wagner and Mara. It's still early and there's plenty of time for them to improve their draft stock with strong tournaments but right now I don't think any of them should be confident they'll be chosen in the lottery and they might not want to roll the dice on being drafted late in the first.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Says the guy who has Kwame Evans late first lol

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not that I put much if any stock into what publications say but there seems to be more people aligned with me. But I'm sure you're right and he'll be a top 10 pick. You seem like you know what you're talking about and aren't embarrassed daily because you're a glutton for punishment

https://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

2nd round

https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

undrafted

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2024-nba-mock-draft/

pick #28

https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/2024_nba_first_round_mock_draft_010424/s1__39633499#slide_29

not in first round

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10099402-2024-nba-mock-draft-full-two-round-predictions-biggest-risers-and-fallers

undrafted

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft/

not in the first round

Quoting because all these takes will look foolish in time and I want it on record


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so if he's drafted after pick 20 I get bragging rights? How fun!!

[HadAnEffectHere]

Cal entered this game 4-9 and are 157th in Kenpom rating.

Congrats to USC for beating this powerhouse.

[EvanZ]

not that I put much if any stock into what publications say but there seems to be more people aligned with me. But I'm sure you're right and he'll be a top 10 pick. You seem like you know what you're talking about and aren't embarrassed daily because you're a glutton for punishment

https://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

2nd round

https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

undrafted

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2024-nba-mock-draft/

pick #28

https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/2024_nba_first_round_mock_draft_010424/s1__39633499#slide_29

not in first round

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10099402-2024-nba-mock-draft-full-two-round-predictions-biggest-risers-and-fallers

undrafted

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft/

not in the first round

Quoting because all these takes will look foolish in time and I want it on record


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so if he's drafted after pick 20 I get bragging rights? How fun!!

He’s going to go much higher than that and when he does you’ll have already started coming up with excuses why you didn’t see it earlier.


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[Colbinii]

Cal entered this game 4-9 and are 157th in Kenpom rating.

Congrats to USC for beating this powerhouse.

Holy ****, Mark "Mad Dog" Madsen is their coach. That's hilarious.

[EvanZ]

Cal entered this game 4-9 and are 157th in Kenpom rating.

Congrats to USC for beating this powerhouse.

Holy ****, Mark "Mad Dog" Madsen is their coach. That's hilarious.

What's going to really blow your mind is that former Cal player (and Kansas) Jerod Haase is the Stanford head coach. lol

[Colbinii]

Kyle Filipowski's AST/TO ratio is absurd for a big man.

Nobody has ever put up his current stats [>20% AST%, <10% TOV%, >7% BLK%]. But, when you zoom out and look at players with a similar statistical profile, nobody stands out, with the best players being Mike Muscala and Trayce Jackson-Davis.