2024 NBA Draft Thread

[Hal14]

Yeah, there was no chance that the Thompsons were ever going to learn how to shoot since they had spent so many years trying to learn how to shoot with no results. Holland being so young (and maybe having focused less on that? He seems to have tried to improve as a shot creator recently) gives him more hope from a shooting perspective.

But 21% is a horrid baseline to start from and makes me very anxious believing in him unless he turns those percentages around in the rest of the season.

Again, if you include the overseas games before the season started and the 2 exhibition games vs Perth, Holland is at 24.7% from 3. So the 21% you keep saying is misleading.

Also, he's shooting from the NBA 3 pt line which is further away than NCAA. The volume is good, which is an indicator for future shooting improvement. The shot diet is also good - it's not like he's shooting a horrible % on wide open catch and shoot 3's. Many of his attempts are contested and/or off the dribble which are harder to make..

Ignite also has horrible spacing, etc.

[Colbinii]

Is Tristan Da Silva this years Jaime Jaquez Jr?

[Chuck Everett]

Is Tristan Da Silva this years Jaime Jaquez Jr?

Eh... I have liked him for years, but he never really took that leap to All-America status like Haquez did. I don't think he has it in him, unfortunately. He's gonna have to show out at the combine.

[Colbinii]

Is Tristan Da Silva this years Jaime Jaquez Jr?

Eh... I have liked him for years, but he never really took that leap to All-America status like Haquez did. I don't think he has it in him, unfortunately. He's gonna have to show out at the combine.

What's the leap you are looking for?

JJJ senior season: 14.6% AST%, 9.0% OREB%, 5.0% STOCK%, 32% 3P, 77% FT%
Da Silva senior season: 16.7% AST%, 4.2% OREB%, 3.9% STOCK%, 39% 3P, 84% FT%

It looks like Da Silva is taking a playmaking leap, albeit with a higher turnover rate than JJJ [who had a great TOV% throughout his NCAA Career]. Da Silva is looking like a legitimate shooter, more-so than JJJ.

I also expect the combine to be big for Da Silva, notably his lateral quickness and actual size. Given he is older, he is going to need to come with some athletic results to get into the 1st round.

[Chuck Everett]

Is Tristan Da Silva this years Jaime Jaquez Jr?

Eh... I have liked him for years, but he never really took that leap to All-America status like Haquez did. I don't think he has it in him, unfortunately. He's gonna have to show out at the combine.

What's the leap you are looking for?

JJJ senior season: 14.6% AST%, 9.0% OREB%, 5.0% STOCK%, 32% 3P, 77% FT%
Da Silva senior season: 16.7% AST%, 4.2% OREB%, 3.9% STOCK%, 39% 3P, 84% FT%

It looks like Da Silva is taking a playmaking leap, albeit with a higher turnover rate than JJJ [who had a great TOV% throughout his NCAA Career]. Da Silva is looking like a legitimate shooter, more-so than JJJ.

I also expect the combine to be big for Da Silva, notably his lateral quickness and actual size. Given he is older, he is going to need to come with some athletic results to get into the 1st round.

The leap being the best player on his team. That's KJ Simpson. Jaquez was the best player on UCLA his last two years, even with a talented guy like Jaylen Clark behind him. Do you think Da Silva will be an All-America and take Colorado to a Sweet Sixteen? Sadly, I don't see him as being good enough for that.

[EvanZ]

Da Silva has 2 dunks. He is maybe a second round pick. Not Jaquez level athlete, which is already borderline NBA athlete. I actually thought Jaime was draftworthy after his Freshman season. He went on to have 3 seasons with BPM >= 8. Da Silva is at his peak BMP right now of 7.8. He will also be 23 on Draft Night. He's only 3 months younger than Jaime right now.

[Colbinii]

Eh... I have liked him for years, but he never really took that leap to All-America status like Haquez did. I don't think he has it in him, unfortunately. He's gonna have to show out at the combine.

What's the leap you are looking for?

JJJ senior season: 14.6% AST%, 9.0% OREB%, 5.0% STOCK%, 32% 3P, 77% FT%
Da Silva senior season: 16.7% AST%, 4.2% OREB%, 3.9% STOCK%, 39% 3P, 84% FT%

It looks like Da Silva is taking a playmaking leap, albeit with a higher turnover rate than JJJ [who had a great TOV% throughout his NCAA Career]. Da Silva is looking like a legitimate shooter, more-so than JJJ.

I also expect the combine to be big for Da Silva, notably his lateral quickness and actual size. Given he is older, he is going to need to come with some athletic results to get into the 1st round.

The leap being the best player on his team. That's KJ Simpson. Jaquez was the best player on UCLA his last two years, even with a talented guy like Jaylen Clark behind him. Do you think Da Silva will be an All-America and take Colorado to a Sweet Sixteen? Sadly, I don't see him as being good enough for that.

I don't think team results are directly tier to a player's draft stock or value. A player who isn't as good in college [but is still very good] has no value, to me, when comparing prospective players.

I don't consider Da Silva to be a better prospect than Jaquez. I am excited to see how he finishes out his senior year and then the combine.

KJ Simpson is also a better college player than Jaquez ever was, and if they played together, KJ would be considered the better player.

[EvanZ]

KJ Simpson is also a better college player than Jaquez ever was, and if they played together, KJ would be considered the better player.

Nah man this is definitely not true. I have liked KJ for a few years now but he is clearly not better than Jaquez was. Otherwise he would have already been drafted. He's shooting under 31% for his career. Below 30% his last two seasons. This year so far looks like an outlier but it's only 54 attempts. You're the numbers guy, so you must realize this. The other thing is that KJ is simply a small guard. His size is a huge issue at the next level. If KJ keeps up the shooting at anywhere close to 40% or even 36% I think he's draftable, but I could see him going undrafted.

[Colbinii]

KJ Simpson is also a better college player than Jaquez ever was, and if they played together, KJ would be considered the better player.

Nah man this is definitely not true. I have liked KJ for a few years now but he is clearly not better than Jaquez was. Otherwise he would have already been drafted. He's shooting under 31% for his career. Below 30% his last two seasons. This year so far looks like an outlier but it's only 54 attempts. You're the numbers guy, so you must realize this. The other thing is that KJ is simply a small guard. His size is a huge issue at the next level. If KJ keeps up the shooting at anywhere close to 40% or even 36% I think he's draftable, but I could see him going undrafted.

This is sort of my point.

I think KJ is better right now as a college player but I don't consider him as a comparable prospect to Jaquez or Da Silva [also different positions].

I don't think BPM as a statistic scales well into the NBA. It does inform us about who produced more with efficiency, but it doesn't accurately grade prospects.

Circling back to KJ Simpson, he has shown consistent growth as a player in each of his 3 years in college. His AST%, STL%, TOV%, OREB%, DREB%, and REB% have increased each year. He has a very good Free Throw Rate for a guard and he is a career 81% FT%. Sure, his 3P% may not be sustainable, but his other shooting indicator is strong.

I also don't think he is draftable without a strong shooting season.

[EvanZ]

If BPM informs who “produced better” then Jaime was more productive for longer than KJ in college by that metric. I think what it doesn’t measure as well is defense and Jaime is clearly a much better defender than KJ in college and certainly at the next level. It’s not really close imo.


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[EvanZ]

(All this being said I still had Jaime late first so it’s not like I knew he’d be a star based on his college performances. Far from it.)


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[Hal14]

Is Tristan Da Silva this years Jaime Jaquez Jr?

Maybe. But I'm thinking it's McCullar..or perhaps Matthew Cleveland or Hunter Sallis.

[EvanZ]

Is Tristan Da Silva this years Jaime Jaquez Jr?

Maybe. But I'm thinking it's McCullar..or perhaps Matthew Cleveland or Hunter Sallis.

It's none of these guys. People always want to find the "next Player X" but it just isn't a thing. There wasn't a Jaime Jaquez in the class before, why should there be one now? Last year everyone wanted "the next Christian Braun". Is Jaime that guy? Not really.

But surely this won't stop people for looking for "this year's Podz", "this year's Jaime", etc.

[Colbinii]

Is Tristan Da Silva this years Jaime Jaquez Jr?

Maybe. But I'm thinking it's McCullar..or perhaps Matthew Cleveland or Hunter Sallis.

It's none of these guys. People always want to find the "next Player X" but it just isn't a thing. There wasn't a Jaime Jaquez in the class before, why should there be one now? Last year everyone wanted "the next Christian Braun". Is Jaime that guy? Not really.

But surely this won't stop people for looking for "this year's Podz", "this year's Jaime", etc.

I think it's more "3 or 4 year guy who will be successful as a rookie".

Jalen Williams was absolutely this guy from the 2022 Draft.
Christaun Braun was a 3-year college guy who played meaningful minutes in the NBA Finals.
Ochai Agbaji is looking like a long-term wing in this league.

That's 3 players from the 2022 Draft who can contribute.

Going back to 2021, Corey Kispert has had a nice start to his career while Herb Jones has inked a decently sized extension.

Jalen Williams and Jaime Jaquez are the two best, and clearly better than anyone else from the past 3 drafts, but there should be a player or two who are Junior/Seniors, get drafted, and can come in and contribute to winning basketball right away.

[EvanZ]

Jalen Williams and Jaime Jaquez are the two best, and clearly better than anyone else from the past 3 drafts, but there should be a player or two who are Junior/Seniors, get drafted, and can come in and contribute to winning basketball right away.

I mean...yeah? I guess that is a thing that happens. I'm not sure why it's any different than predicting anyone else in the draft that's going to hit. That's kind of the whole point of this.

[Hal14]

Is Tristan Da Silva this years Jaime Jaquez Jr?

Maybe. But I'm thinking it's McCullar..or perhaps Matthew Cleveland or Hunter Sallis.

It's none of these guys. People always want to find the "next Player X" but it just isn't a thing. There wasn't a Jaime Jaquez in the class before, why should there be one now? Last year everyone wanted "the next Christian Braun". Is Jaime that guy? Not really.

But surely this won't stop people for looking for "this year's Podz", "this year's Jaime", etc.

The next Jaquez...last year it WAS christian Braun...and it was Jalen williams. year before that it was Quentin Grimes and Trey Murphy and Austin Reaves and Herb Jones.

This year there's also Julian Strawther.

At least that's how I'm interpreting the question of "who is this year's Jaquez?"

I don't think the guy is asking "which prospect in this year's class is EXACTLY like Jaquez. That would be kind of silly. Prospects are all so different.

I interpreted his question to mean, "which 3 or 4 year college player, age 21 or older on draft night...ideally a wing position...will go outside of the top 10 picks (or will end up out-performing their draft position..or just outperforming where they are projected to go in the draft right now) and they're a good college player who is useful on both ends of the floor, has some good ball skills, good basketball IQ/fundamentals but has some flaws (along with the flaw of just being an older prospect) that slide them down on draft boards a bit..

[Colbinii]

Jalen Williams and Jaime Jaquez are the two best, and clearly better than anyone else from the past 3 drafts, but there should be a player or two who are Junior/Seniors, get drafted, and can come in and contribute to winning basketball right away.

I mean...yeah? I guess that is a thing that happens. I'm not sure why it's any different than predicting anyone else in the draft that's going to hit. That's kind of the whole point of this.

The point is there are going to be a couple upper classmen who have improved throughout college, come out to the NBA, and continue to build and improve, even though they are 21/22.

I'm just curious of which players in this draft could potentially become that player, and then do some comparisons to see if there are any patterns or relationships between predicting their outcomes and what they did in college.

[Hal14]

Jalen Williams and Jaime Jaquez are the two best, and clearly better than anyone else from the past 3 drafts, but there should be a player or two who are Junior/Seniors, get drafted, and can come in and contribute to winning basketball right away.

I mean...yeah? I guess that is a thing that happens. I'm not sure why it's any different than predicting anyone else in the draft that's going to hit. That's kind of the whole point of this.

Not really. If you're a savvy draft evaluator, you'll notice a trend over the past few drafts of these types of guys succeeding while guys like Ziaire Williams, JT Thor, BJ Boston, Keon Johnson, James Bouknight, Kai Jones, Juhann Begarin, JD Davison, Sharife Cooper, Greg Brown, Josh Primo, Trevor Keels, Kendall Brown, Josh Christopher, Tyty Washington, Usman Garuba, Bol Bol, Isaiah Todd, Romeo Langford, Michael Foster Jr, Blake Wesley, Sekou Doumbouya, James Wiseman and Josh Minott have not worked out. You'll then look at the players I named above and the players Colbini named above, (who have worked out), see what the common traits are among them and try to figure out which players from the 2024 class who are college juniors/seniors are more likely to work out..

[EvanZ]

Again…just make your damn boards. We’ve seen threads like this where everyone guesses who the magical prospect is and 99% get it wrong. If you think Dillon Jones is a top 5 pick or someone else random like that go for it. That’s the whole point.


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[EvanZ]

How many of you had Jaime top 5? 0? That’s what I thought.


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