2020 NBA Draft II

[bondom34]

projected 3-pt shooting (point guards) -- using v. top 100 stats for college players*
*complete season average will be in parentheses

j. butler (38.1%) // 20gp // ~33% on 3s // 69.5% on FTs // (nba proj. = 33-35%)
k. lewis jr. (36.4%) // 20gp // ~35% on 3s // 77.4% on FTs // (nba proj. = 35-37%)
t. haliburton (41.9%) // 16gp // ~41% on 3s // 83.3% on FTs // (nba proj. = 40-42%)
c. anthony (34.8%) // 16gp // ~34% on 3s // 72.2% on FTs // (nba proj. = 33-35%)
g. riller (36.4%) // 7gp // ~24% on 3s // 83.3% on FTs // (nba proj. = 34-36%)
t. maxey (31.6%) // 17gp // ~32% on 3s // 83.1% on FTs // (nba proj. = 32-34%)
t. jones (36.1%) // 16gp // ~30% on 3s // 73.3% on FTs // (nba proj. = 32-34%)

...will add more later

not really scalable, not all 3s are created equal, the types of 3s that Maxey and Butler and Anthony take are different than Haliburton's, way more off-dribble, pull-up, etc, so this doesn't say anything really

Where can I find a break down of the different kinds of 3PA?

You have to navigate to each college but :

https://hoop-math.com/Duke2020.php

Has a breakdown of assisted percentages.

[getrichordie]

One thing that stands out when watching Reed on D is how he isn't as engaged when off-ball and how many fouls he commits. There were some times where I came away unimpressed with how he closed way too hard and allowed his man to get by him or how he didn't close fast enough. To be fair, he also showed some flashes closing really well. In the post, he doesn't always keep his hands up and that allows smaller players to score on him like the 240lb. 6'4 marvel from Alcorn State.

This is somewhat nit picky, but overall he's still a really good defender. Even if he is closing out too hard, he can often compensate and get back in the play by ripping the ball with his long arms. His positioning is really solid, too. He's creating havoc everywhere on the court, pretty much. Impressive stuff.

There's also this one OOB play (@31:37) where he just doesn't even give any effort to get around his man and help on the corner. Not all his fault, but still.

Watch on YouTube

;t=1370s

[getrichordie]

not really scalable, not all 3s are created equal, the types of 3s that Maxey and Butler and Anthony take are different than Haliburton's, way more off-dribble, pull-up, etc, so this doesn't say anything really

Where can I find a break down of the different kinds of 3PA?

You have to navigate to each college but :

https://hoop-math.com/Duke2020.php

Has a breakdown of assisted percentages.

Yeah, I know about this, but not really what I'm looking for since it doesn't show the FG%s on the shot type. Where does The Stepien get there stuff?

[bondom34]

Where can I find a break down of the different kinds of 3PA?

You have to navigate to each college but :

https://hoop-math.com/Duke2020.php

Has a breakdown of assisted percentages.

Yeah, I know about this, but not really what I'm looking for since it doesn't show the FG%s on the shot type. Where does The Stepien get there stuff?

Not totally sure but I'd guess they have a Synergy subscription.

[getrichordie]

You have to navigate to each college but :

https://hoop-math.com/Duke2020.php

Has a breakdown of assisted percentages.

Yeah, I know about this, but not really what I'm looking for since it doesn't show the FG%s on the shot type. Where does The Stepien get there stuff?

Not totally sure but I'd guess they have a Synergy subscription.

Yeah, that looks like what they are using. I'm going to tweet them to see if I can get a trial.

[getrichordie]

This play by Achiuwa is **** amazing (@0:55).

Just imagine if Achiuwa can shoot like this (@2:15) in the NBA with some consistency. Form looks good too.

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

At worst, Achiuwa is current Isaiah Stewart but more mobile, worse FT shooter. At best, Achiuwa is a Jerami Grant 3.0 (yes, I skipped the 2.0).

[clyde21]

projected 3-pt shooting (point guards) -- using v. top 100 stats for college players*
*complete season average will be in parentheses

j. butler (38.1%) // 20gp // ~33% on 3s // 69.5% on FTs // (nba proj. = 33-35%)
k. lewis jr. (36.4%) // 20gp // ~35% on 3s // 77.4% on FTs // (nba proj. = 35-37%)
t. haliburton (41.9%) // 16gp // ~41% on 3s // 83.3% on FTs // (nba proj. = 40-42%)
c. anthony (34.8%) // 16gp // ~34% on 3s // 72.2% on FTs // (nba proj. = 33-35%)
g. riller (36.4%) // 7gp // ~24% on 3s // 83.3% on FTs // (nba proj. = 34-36%)
t. maxey (31.6%) // 17gp // ~32% on 3s // 83.1% on FTs // (nba proj. = 32-34%)
t. jones (36.1%) // 16gp // ~30% on 3s // 73.3% on FTs // (nba proj. = 32-34%)

...will add more later

not really scalable, not all 3s are created equal, the types of 3s that Maxey and Butler and Anthony take are different than Haliburton's, way more off-dribble, pull-up, etc, so this doesn't say anything really

Where can I find a break down of the different kinds of 3PA?

synergy

[GimmeDat]

i mean, it's kinda straight forward, like DLo for example, he posts a lot of stats but is essentially an empty calorie player, his production is not conducive to winning basketball and is almost never a net positive on the court

But again, relative to what. If you're building a team around him, sure. If he's the 5th/6th best player on your team though? I'd say he's very conducive to winning relative to the majority of bench pieces and certain starters.

not really...what's Lamelo's role on the team if he's your 5th best player? he's exlusively an on-ball guard who doesn't play any defense, at what point are you gonna have your 4th/5th best player the ball where it's gonna matter that much?

it's a conflict of interest, he's a high usage player, but if he's your 5th best player, he won't be high usage, and if he's 1st or 2nd best player, mehhhhh.

I said originally that scalability of role is one of the factors there - obviously the scalability of LaMelo's Ball is not as wide as someone like Vassell, for instance.

Doesn't mean they're a complete bust if they don't reach their top end outcome though. A lot of these on-ball guys that you're describing can still succeed in mult-ball handler or 2nd unit lineups. There's definitely a bigger variance in outcome, but again, I'm just focusing on the phrase non-winning. There's hundreds of players in this league, it's always relative, there will always be some players that a more or less impactful than the individual.

[King Ken]

Ball is like Young in the boom or bust way as a prospect. The thing is, if you give him the keys, it's kinda hard for him to do anything but boom as Young did. The question is, San Antonio drafts Young, what's his potential then? I do think that's where Ball has more of an edge. Ball could go to a team where he doesn't get the keys and still have a starting role even if his impact isn't there.

Simply put, why draft Morant, Ball, or Young if you aren't giving them the keys. I know LA didn't give Zo the keys but offensively, Melo is just a lot more modern and valuable for PPP which is critical.

[King Ken]

projected 3-pt shooting (point guards) -- using v. top 100 stats for college players*
*complete season average will be in parentheses

j. butler (38.1%) // 20gp // ~33% on 3s // 69.5% on FTs // (nba proj. = 33-35%)
k. lewis jr. (36.4%) // 20gp // ~35% on 3s // 77.4% on FTs // (nba proj. = 35-37%)
t. haliburton (41.9%) // 16gp // ~41% on 3s // 83.3% on FTs // (nba proj. = 40-42%)
c. anthony (34.8%) // 16gp // ~34% on 3s // 72.2% on FTs // (nba proj. = 33-35%)
g. riller (36.4%) // 7gp // ~24% on 3s // 83.3% on FTs // (nba proj. = 34-36%)
t. maxey (31.6%) // 17gp // ~32% on 3s // 83.1% on FTs // (nba proj. = 32-34%)
t. jones (36.1%) // 16gp // ~30% on 3s // 73.3% on FTs // (nba proj. = 32-34%)

...will add more later

not really scalable, not all 3s are created equal, the types of 3s that Maxey and Butler and Anthony take are different than Haliburton's, way more off-dribble, pull-up, etc, so this doesn't say anything really

We actually talked about this last year a lot, high end variance on threes is a lot more important in the modern NBA. Luka and Mitchell threes are a lot valuable in translation.

[The-Power]

The thing is, if you give him the keys, it's kinda hard for him to do anything but boom as Young did.

The difference is obviously that Young is a much better shooter and overall scorer, even as a prospect. That matters, obviously.

[King Ken]

The thing is, if you give him the keys, it's kinda hard for him to do anything but boom as Young did.

The difference is obviously that Young is a much better shooter and overall scorer, even as a prospect. That matters, obviously.

Ball has a tremendous skill level and he's a pure scorer. We went through this last year with Morant. Y'all was like, but but shooting. When have players with this skill level who can pass like this failed and been anything less than stars? I'll wait

[EMG518]

The thing is, if you give him the keys, it's kinda hard for him to do anything but boom as Young did.

The difference is obviously that Young is a much better shooter and overall scorer, even as a prospect. That matters, obviously.

Ball has a tremendous skill level and he's a pure scorer. We went through this last year with Morant. Y'all was like, but but shooting. When have players with this skill level who can pass like this failed and been anything less than stars? I'll wait

Morant was so good at getting to the rim and finishing as well as his handle/passing were special. His shot looked decent enough coming out. I would not take that guy at the top of the draft but that is just me.

[getrichordie]

projected 3-pt shooting (point guards) -- using v. top 100 stats for college players*
*complete season average will be in parentheses

j. butler (38.1%) // 20gp // ~33% on 3s // 69.5% on FTs // (nba proj. = 33-35%)
k. lewis jr. (36.4%) // 20gp // ~35% on 3s // 77.4% on FTs // (nba proj. = 35-37%)
t. haliburton (41.9%) // 16gp // ~41% on 3s // 83.3% on FTs // (nba proj. = 40-42%)
c. anthony (34.8%) // 16gp // ~34% on 3s // 72.2% on FTs // (nba proj. = 33-35%)
g. riller (36.4%) // 7gp // ~24% on 3s // 83.3% on FTs // (nba proj. = 34-36%)
t. maxey (31.6%) // 17gp // ~32% on 3s // 83.1% on FTs // (nba proj. = 32-34%)
t. jones (36.1%) // 16gp // ~30% on 3s // 73.3% on FTs // (nba proj. = 32-34%)

...will add more later

not really scalable, not all 3s are created equal, the types of 3s that Maxey and Butler and Anthony take are different than Haliburton's, way more off-dribble, pull-up, etc, so this doesn't say anything really

We actually talked about this last year a lot, high end variance on threes is a lot more important in the modern NBA. Luka and Mitchell threes are a lot valuable in translation.

When you say high-end variance on threes, you are talking about when a prospect shows he can hit multiple threes in a row or hit pull ups, in transition 3s?

[The-Power]

The thing is, if you give him the keys, it's kinda hard for him to do anything but boom as Young did.

The difference is obviously that Young is a much better shooter and overall scorer, even as a prospect. That matters, obviously.

Ball has a tremendous skill level and he's a pure scorer. We went through this last year with Morant. Y'all was like, but but shooting. When have players with this skill level who can pass like this failed and been anything less than stars? I'll wait

Being a great playmaker is not enough when you can't score. I wouldn't invest a high pick to get Rajon Rondo, for instance, and if Ben Simmons was a really poor defender he would have been traded by now as well. Rubio with poor defense is also not a player that is worth a lot. All of them are great passers and examples of players who haven't been premiere offensive players due to scoring limitations.

As I say that, I want to emphasize that these are not (!) my comparisons for Ball. So please don't respond by saying how Ball is different from them. I simply don't agree with your argument that if you just give him the ball and let him do this thing, he'll boom without a doubt. The talent-level in the NBA is high and if you want to be the offensive focal point you better not be a severely limited scorer or else it's simply more conducive to winning if you let other players on the roster handle the ball and make plays.

I'm not sure what you mean by ‘Ball is a pure scorer’. Ball has serious limitations. He's a bad shooter with poor shot selection and he doesn't draw fouls, and instead actively avoids physical contact around the rim. That's highly problematic. Can he improve in those areas? Absolutely. But if he scores anything like he did in Australia then no team can afford to give him the reigns and just let him play however he sees fit. No way.

[clyde21]

But again, relative to what. If you're building a team around him, sure. If he's the 5th/6th best player on your team though? I'd say he's very conducive to winning relative to the majority of bench pieces and certain starters.

not really...what's Lamelo's role on the team if he's your 5th best player? he's exlusively an on-ball guard who doesn't play any defense, at what point are you gonna have your 4th/5th best player the ball where it's gonna matter that much?

it's a conflict of interest, he's a high usage player, but if he's your 5th best player, he won't be high usage, and if he's 1st or 2nd best player, mehhhhh.

I said originally that scalability of role is one of the factors there - obviously the scalability of LaMelo's Ball is not as wide as someone like Vassell, for instance.

Doesn't mean they're a complete bust if they don't reach their top end outcome though. A lot of these on-ball guys that you're describing can still succeed in mult-ball handler or 2nd unit lineups. There's definitely a bigger variance in outcome, but again, I'm just focusing on the phrase non-winning. There's hundreds of players in this league, it's always relative, there will always be some players that a more or less impactful than the individual.

non-winning relative to his required usage rate, he'll post a bunch of stats by virtue of his role and today's NBA but he'll have a really hard time being a net positive impact player long term, really just an empty calorie player imo.

his game is not really scalable or portable, you can't really put him next to another guard that can't play any defense, you can't put him next to another guard that needs the ball in his hands, he's exclusively on-ball but with questionable decision making and efficiency, he's not gonna do a lot of screening/picking for you, is a non-factor in a switch scheme, completely irrelevant off-ball which is a huge turn off in today's NBA.

like...how many lead guards in the NBA right now are leading winning teams with his archetype? the closest I see is D-Lo and the dude is the epitome of an empty calorie player who has to have the scheme/talent around him tailored to him at every turn.

[King Ken]

not really scalable, not all 3s are created equal, the types of 3s that Maxey and Butler and Anthony take are different than Haliburton's, way more off-dribble, pull-up, etc, so this doesn't say anything really

We actually talked about this last year a lot, high end variance on threes is a lot more important in the modern NBA. Luka and Mitchell threes are a lot valuable in translation.

When you say high-end variance on threes, you are talking about when a prospect shows he can hit multiple threes in a row or hit pull ups, in transition 3s?

Dribble pullup, one dribble pullup, stepback, C&S, spotup, off the dribble, out of a combo, in transition, etc.

[King Ken]

The difference is obviously that Young is a much better shooter and overall scorer, even as a prospect. That matters, obviously.

Ball has a tremendous skill level and he's a pure scorer. We went through this last year with Morant. Y'all was like, but but shooting. When have players with this skill level who can pass like this failed and been anything less than stars? I'll wait

Being a great playmaker is not enough when you can't score. I wouldn't invest a high pick to get Rajon Rondo, for instance, and if Ben Simmons was a really poor defender he would have been traded by now as well. Rubio with poor defense is also not a player that is worth a lot. All of them are great passers and examples of players who haven't been premiere offensive players due to scoring limitations.

As I say that, I want to emphasize that these are not (!) my comparisons for Ball. So please don't respond by saying how Ball is different from them. I simply don't agree with your argument that if you just give him the ball and let him do this thing, he'll boom without a doubt. The talent-level in the NBA is high and if you want to be the offensive focal point you better not be a severely limited scorer or else it's simply more conducive to winning if you let other players on the roster handle the ball and make plays.

I'm not sure what you mean by ‘Ball is a pure scorer’. Ball has serious limitations. He's a bad shooter with poor shot selection and he doesn't draw fouls, and instead actively avoids physical contact around the rim. That's highly problematic. Can he improve in those areas? Absolutely. But if he scores anything like he did in Australia then no team can afford to give him the reigns and just let him play however he sees fit. No way.

Has a tremendous floater with elite range
Has great touch
Has great range
Has a smooth transition into getting into his shot.

He might not be an accurate shooter at this stage but he shows all of the things I want to see in a prospect from someone who could be a shooter.

Melo Ball haters don't give him enough credit for all of what he has. That's a fact. Comparing his scoring to Rajon Rondo is like those guys who compared Trae Young scoring to Trey Burke and Jimmer Fredette. There is a massive skills gap between the prospects.

I wrote for Ja Morant last year when he wasn't the darling he is right now and I will do the same for Ball.

[getrichordie]

New top 30 big board as my 5th tier happens to stop at 30. Definitely not touching this unless new information comes to light via combine, whatever or unless someone wants to convince me to move someone up/down.

Spoiler:

one (~likely franchise)
—


two (~potential franchise)
—
James Wiseman (19.2) -- 5
2. Deni Avdija (19.4) -- 4/3

three (~all-star)
—
3. Anthony Edwards (18.8) -- 2/1/3
4. Killian Hayes (18.8) -- 1/2
5. Isaac Okoro (19.3) -- 2/3/4
6. LaMelo Ball (18.8) -- 1/2

four (~high-level starter)
—
7. R.J. Hampton (19.3) -- 1/2
8. Onyeka Okongwu (19.4) -- 5
9. Aleksej Pokusevski (18.4) -- 4/3/sb5
10. Tyrese Haliburton (20.2) -- 1/2
11. Devin Vassell (19.8) -- 2/3
12. Precious Achiuwa (20.7) -- 5/4
13. Patrick Williams (18.8) -- 4/3
14. Obi Toppin (22.2) -- 4/sb5

five (~low-level starter/top of rotation)
—
15. Theo Maledon (18.9) -- 1/2
16. Cole Anthony (20.0) -- 1/2
17. Kira Lewis Jr. (19.1) -- 1
18. Grant Riller (23.3) -- 1/2
19. Tyrese Maxey (19.6) -- 1
20. Aaron Nesmith (20.6) -- 2/3
21. Paul Reed (20.9) -- 4/3/sb5
22. Leandro Bolmaro (19.7) -- 1/2/3
23. Josh Green (19.6) -- 2/3
24. Robert Woodard II (20.7) -- 3/4
25. Zeke Nnaji (19.4) -- 5/4
26. Jahmi'us Ramsey (18.9) -- 2/1*
27. Malachi Flynn (22.0) -- 1
28. Daniel Oturu (20.7) -- 5
29. Isaiah Stewart (18.9) -- 5
30. Jaden McDaniels (19.6) -- 3/4

[clyde21]

The thing is, if you give him the keys, it's kinda hard for him to do anything but boom as Young did.

The difference is obviously that Young is a much better shooter and overall scorer, even as a prospect. That matters, obviously.

Ball has a tremendous skill level and he's a pure scorer. We went through this last year with Morant. Y'all was like, but but shooting. When have players with this skill level who can pass like this failed and been anything less than stars? I'll wait

Morant combined elite handling with top tier athleticism and passing, Melo has the passing/handling but is not a top tier athlete, and was even less efficient than Morant on a smaller sample size, and Morant isn't a great defender but even he was better than Melo