Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star?

Draft talk all year round

Moderators: Marcus, Ruzious

Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star?

Yes
22
33%
No
45
67%
 
Total votes: 67

User avatar
ManualRam
RealGM
Posts: 23,361
And1: 2,742
Joined: Jun 25, 2004
     

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#21 » by ManualRam » Mon Apr 16, 2012 2:51 pm

Rockmaninoff wrote:
ManualRam wrote:
Superiorblogman wrote:Meyers Leonard totally failed for a C his size. I want my C rebounding and blocking shots he does neither on the level of undersized guys like Al Horford did as a sophomore. He does neitheron the level of Roy Hibbert as a sophomore. De-Andre Jordan had more upside and produced better than Leonard and he dropped to the 2nd rd. Leonard is the biggest example of how blown out of proportion this draft is.

no, he did not totally fail for a C his size.

% of team's total rebounds
Leonard- 25.1
Horford (soph)- 21
Hibbert (soph)- 21

blks per 40
Leonard- 2.4
Hibbert- 2.7
Horford- 2.7
the difference is not statistically significant.

jordan's college stats were insignificant since he was just a 20mpg player.
jordan HAD more potential, but he had no discernible offensive skill coming out of college and still doesnt. leonard is already more offensively skilled than jordan is now.


I guess I keep wondering why Leonard was so worthless as a freshman? All they guys listed above were much more productive. If we want to just look at sophomore numbers:

Code: Select all


          D-Reb    T-Reb  S+B/PF  A/TO  WS/40
Hibbert   0.175   0.287   0.857   0.98   13.9
Horford   0.208   0.293   1.080   1.04   14.4
Leonard   0.185   0.258   0.828   0.63   11.5



I'm looking at per minute defensive rebounds, total rebounds, ratio of steals and blocks over personal fouls, assist to turnover, and the flawed but generally accepted metric Win Score. Leonard appears to be significantly worse than Horford in every catagory. Leonard is closer to Hibbert, but still lacking. Looking at this, I can guess why Leonard was triple-teamed when in possession of the ball and in the post: it appears that it would result more regularly in a turnover rather than an assist.

If I went just off of the numbers, I would project Leonard to be a serviceable NBA player. Considering what I perceive to be a lack of physical and mental toughness, my estimate is more conservative. I would be absolutely shocked if he ever becomes an All-Star level player.


because he was not physically ready to play as a freshman on a team that leaned heavily on a senior frontcourt, but his rate of improvement physically, skill-wise and in terms of understanding the game was immense. it showed both in his play for team USA and his first yr transitioning from a bystander to the focal point of the illini offense.

those other guys were MUCH more productive as sophomores? no
slight differences in per minute rebounding rates in college dont mean much because there is a big variance in pace/possessions per game among teams.

and no, that isnt the reason why leonard was double and triple teamed. he was double and triple teamed because of how effective he was in the halfcourt when he was able to get good touches and shots off. 60.4 FG% on 2PTa is only 2nd to anthony davis among all projected first rounders.
2.1 TOs while constantly being doubled is not a high rate either. if a player sucks offensively, then he'd be treated like andre drummond defensively: no extra defensive attention, never doubled and often times ignored on that end of the floor.

projecting nba careers strictly off of college numbers is never a good practice either, especially for big men. there is no consideration for the player's stage of development or rate of improvement. when projecting prospects out i think it's more important to focus on the player's: size, athleticism, skill, rate of improvement, bball IQ, approach, mentality, on court demeanor...among other intangibles. i try not to just rattle off stats or rates when giving my take on prospects. its too simplistic an approach. anybody can do that and make a prospect look good or bad (regardless of how much they actually saw them play) depending on how they cherry pick the stats. to me, reading details of how a player plays and observing how a player plays basketball is more important than pouring over stats that may or may not translate.
idontgiveashtaboutmelo
User avatar
Jack wore plaid
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,904
And1: 56
Joined: Jun 01, 2007

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#22 » by Jack wore plaid » Mon Apr 16, 2012 4:05 pm

If the NBA has proven anything it's that tall white American centers aren't the best bets to be all-stars. Kaman made it one year, but in general it's a sad state of affairs
peachbucket
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,530
And1: 586
Joined: Feb 02, 2005

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#23 » by peachbucket » Mon Apr 16, 2012 7:48 pm

Jack wore plaid wrote:If the NBA has proven anything it's that tall white American centers aren't the best bets to be all-stars. Kaman made it one year, but in general it's a sad state of affairs


This argument can be made for white American players in general...but Im not sure its the smartest way to scout basketball talent.
User avatar
Dr Positivity
RealGM
Posts: 46,243
And1: 10,699
Joined: Apr 29, 2009
       

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#24 » by Dr Positivity » Mon Apr 16, 2012 8:04 pm

Meyers being a distressingly poor college player is a myth btw. He has the 13th highest PER among DX 1st round projected guys (23.9) and is above Beal, Lamb, Drummond, MKG, PJIII, Barnes and Marshall. Among Freshman/Sophmore ranked 1st round for DX, only 5 players had a higher PER than Leonard (A Davis, Sullinger, Mitchell, Waiters, T Jones). 2P% is apparantley an important stat via NCAA to NBA statistical studies and his 60% is excellent

He was not an unbelievably dominant player but if you make that a requirement, you'd have to do the same for half the top 20 prospects
asubstituteforwar.wordpress.com

Recent article: Are Andrew Wiggins and Brandon Ingram's starts for real?
JimboSlice
Senior
Posts: 611
And1: 16
Joined: Mar 01, 2012
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#25 » by JimboSlice » Mon Apr 16, 2012 8:39 pm

No.

Wait actually...

No. Still no.
Thou Shalt Not Shave
Superiorblogman
Banned User
Posts: 2,173
And1: 0
Joined: Jun 21, 2011
Location: The Transplant Capital

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#26 » by Superiorblogman » Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:49 pm

Rockmaninoff wrote:
ManualRam wrote:
Superiorblogman wrote:Meyers Leonard totally failed for a C his size. I want my C rebounding and blocking shots he does neither on the level of undersized guys like Al Horford did as a sophomore. He does neitheron the level of Roy Hibbert as a sophomore. De-Andre Jordan had more upside and produced better than Leonard and he dropped to the 2nd rd. Leonard is the biggest example of how blown out of proportion this draft is.

no, he did not totally fail for a C his size.

% of team's total rebounds
Leonard- 25.1
Horford (soph)- 21
Hibbert (soph)- 21

blks per 40
Leonard- 2.4
Hibbert- 2.7
Horford- 2.7
the difference is not statistically significant.

jordan's college stats were insignificant since he was just a 20mpg player.
jordan HAD more potential, but he had no discernible offensive skill coming out of college and still doesnt. leonard is already more offensively skilled than jordan is now.


I guess I keep wondering why Leonard was so worthless as a freshman? All they guys listed above were much more productive. If we want to just look at sophomore numbers:

Code: Select all


          D-Reb    T-Reb  S+B/PF  A/TO  WS/40
Hibbert   0.175   0.287   0.857   0.98   13.9
Horford   0.208   0.293   1.080   1.04   14.4
Leonard   0.185   0.258   0.828   0.63   11.5



I'm looking at per minute defensive rebounds, total rebounds, ratio of steals and blocks over personal fouls, assist to turnover, and the flawed but generally accepted metric Win Score. Leonard appears to be significantly worse than Horford in every catagory. Leonard is closer to Hibbert, but still lacking. Looking at this, I can guess why Leonard was triple-teamed when in possession of the ball and in the post: it appears that it would result more regularly in a turnover rather than an assist.

If I went just off of the numbers, I would project Leonard to be a serviceable NBA player. Considering what I perceive to be a lack of physical and mental toughness, my estimate is more conservative. I would be absolutely shocked if he ever becomes an All-Star level player.


I see that you are a sensible person so I would like to continue this discussion. I may be reaching by saying he will be a bust but there is proof that the guy is not on the level of guys currently being successful.

Joakim Noah was never as bad as Meyers was his freshman year and Meyers is not on his level when it comes to big man things like rebounding and blocking shots when both were sophomores. Chris Kaman never as bad as Leonard as a freshman and better at rebounding and blocking shots as a sophomore. Samuel Dalembert never as bad as Leonard as a freshman and better at blocking shots and rebounding as a sophomore.
Charsace
Pro Prospect
Posts: 973
And1: 39
Joined: Mar 04, 2009

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#27 » by Charsace » Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:09 pm

He's easily the most underrated prospect in the draft. He should go in the top 5.
Johnlac1
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,184
And1: 1,501
Joined: Jan 21, 2012
 

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#28 » by Johnlac1 » Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:11 pm

I think Leonard can be at least an adequate center. He's got the raw physical tools but not the skills. His mental makeup is a question mark especially after his breakdown, sobbing fit, during the end of the Nebraska game. I've never seen a player sobbing like that during a game. So he's got to show improvement in his maturity as well as his skills. His defense is ahead of his offense at this point, but I doubt he could guard any NBA centers right now. Had the ball taken away from him by guards at times. He shows promise in some offensive areas, but he doesn't have a killer move. He can hit an open shot up to about 10-12 feet and is not a bad passer. Whatever team drafts him should not expect production for at least two or three years. Should have stayed in college another year, but I guess it's tough to turn down a million bucks.
User avatar
Rockmaninoff
General Manager
Posts: 7,615
And1: 1,625
Joined: Jan 11, 2008
   

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#29 » by Rockmaninoff » Mon Apr 16, 2012 11:03 pm

ManualRam wrote:
because he was not physically ready to play as a freshman on a team that leaned heavily on a senior frontcourt, but his rate of improvement physically, skill-wise and in terms of understanding the game was immense. it showed both in his play for team USA and his first yr transitioning from a bystander to the focal point of the illini offense.

those other guys were MUCH more productive as sophomores? no
slight differences in per minute rebounding rates in college dont mean much because there is a big variance in pace/possessions per game among teams.

and no, that isnt the reason why leonard was double and triple teamed. he was double and triple teamed because of how effective he was in the halfcourt when he was able to get good touches and shots off. 60.4 FG% on 2PTa is only 2nd to anthony davis among all projected first rounders.
2.1 TOs while constantly being doubled is not a high rate either. if a player sucks offensively, then he'd be treated like andre drummond defensively: no extra defensive attention, never doubled and often times ignored on that end of the floor.

projecting nba careers strictly off of college numbers is never a good practice either, especially for big men. there is no consideration for the player's stage of development or rate of improvement. when projecting prospects out i think it's more important to focus on the player's: size, athleticism, skill, rate of improvement, bball IQ, approach, mentality, on court demeanor...among other intangibles. i try not to just rattle off stats or rates when giving my take on prospects. its too simplistic an approach. anybody can do that and make a prospect look good or bad (regardless of how much they actually saw them play) depending on how they cherry pick the stats. to me, reading details of how a player plays and observing how a player plays basketball is more important than pouring over stats that may or may not translate.


Said the others were much more productive as freshman. Then did a sophomore comparison, and they were still more productive. It gives me pause that a guy that is being mentioned as a future NBA All-Star was terrible as a freshman. He'd be a total outlier for that to happen, and I personally wouldn't bet on it. More often than not guys that were good as freshman are good in the NBA, but not vice versa. I just find it hard to bank on potential.

I''m not cherry picking here, just comparing what the guy above mentioned. Sure there is variance in the pace and possessions of NCAA teams, but lets not pretend that it's so enormous that it would skew Hibbert and Horford's stats as much as you are implying. I just used per minute numbers because I could do it quickly, whereas I would have regularly used per possession. Using percentage of team stats is flawed because of unequal minutes. Regardless, from my experience NCAA stats are a better predictive tool than you think.

I don't base analysis of prospects on stats alone. I watched him play and it confirmed my assumptions. He's got potential. He's long but light, good athlete, has a good feel for the game. But I think he's going to get pushed around, and I question how he'll respond to that. I see a guy with a ceiling of being a good role player, if he has his head right.
MilBucksBackOnTop06 wrote:The fight for civil rights just like for liberty and justice and peace won't be won by man. It will take a god...so lets move on to sports.

Magic Giannison wrote:Giannis is god but even god's cannot save our **** team.
User avatar
MalonesElbows
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,951
And1: 1,112
Joined: Sep 14, 2009
     

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#30 » by MalonesElbows » Tue Apr 17, 2012 2:22 am

I'd take him over Zeller and TJones, for what it's worth.
User avatar
Geaux_Hawks
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,595
And1: 636
Joined: Feb 18, 2011
     

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#31 » by Geaux_Hawks » Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:41 am

Some of you guys need to really go back and watch those Illinois games where Leonard was super effective in the half court. If Illinois had at least one guy to take pressure off of him, he would have blew minds. He didn't dominate the college ranks but he had an impact on how teams played against him.

If raw stats made or broke players, then I don't see how Drummond is going to make it.
JamesNaismith
Banned User
Posts: 6,929
And1: 5
Joined: Jul 05, 2009
Location: #Breaking backboards on the peachbasket!*

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#32 » by JamesNaismith » Tue Apr 17, 2012 4:44 am

No and feel free to quote me on this.
User avatar
ManualRam
RealGM
Posts: 23,361
And1: 2,742
Joined: Jun 25, 2004
     

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#33 » by ManualRam » Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:33 pm

Rockmaninoff wrote:
ManualRam wrote:
because he was not physically ready to play as a freshman on a team that leaned heavily on a senior frontcourt, but his rate of improvement physically, skill-wise and in terms of understanding the game was immense. it showed both in his play for team USA and his first yr transitioning from a bystander to the focal point of the illini offense.

those other guys were MUCH more productive as sophomores? no
slight differences in per minute rebounding rates in college dont mean much because there is a big variance in pace/possessions per game among teams.

and no, that isnt the reason why leonard was double and triple teamed. he was double and triple teamed because of how effective he was in the halfcourt when he was able to get good touches and shots off. 60.4 FG% on 2PTa is only 2nd to anthony davis among all projected first rounders.
2.1 TOs while constantly being doubled is not a high rate either. if a player sucks offensively, then he'd be treated like andre drummond defensively: no extra defensive attention, never doubled and often times ignored on that end of the floor.

projecting nba careers strictly off of college numbers is never a good practice either, especially for big men. there is no consideration for the player's stage of development or rate of improvement. when projecting prospects out i think it's more important to focus on the player's: size, athleticism, skill, rate of improvement, bball IQ, approach, mentality, on court demeanor...among other intangibles. i try not to just rattle off stats or rates when giving my take on prospects. its too simplistic an approach. anybody can do that and make a prospect look good or bad (regardless of how much they actually saw them play) depending on how they cherry pick the stats. to me, reading details of how a player plays and observing how a player plays basketball is more important than pouring over stats that may or may not translate.


Said the others were much more productive as freshman. Then did a sophomore comparison, and they were still more productive. It gives me pause that a guy that is being mentioned as a future NBA All-Star was terrible as a freshman. He'd be a total outlier for that to happen, and I personally wouldn't bet on it. More often than not guys that were good as freshman are good in the NBA, but not vice versa. I just find it hard to bank on potential.

I''m not cherry picking here, just comparing what the guy above mentioned. Sure there is variance in the pace and possessions of NCAA teams, but lets not pretend that it's so enormous that it would skew Hibbert and Horford's stats as much as you are implying. I just used per minute numbers because I could do it quickly, whereas I would have regularly used per possession. Using percentage of team stats is flawed because of unequal minutes. Regardless, from my experience NCAA stats are a better predictive tool than you think.

I don't base analysis of prospects on stats alone. I watched him play and it confirmed my assumptions. He's got potential. He's long but light, good athlete, has a good feel for the game. But I think he's going to get pushed around, and I question how he'll respond to that. I see a guy with a ceiling of being a good role player, if he has his head right.


there's been plenty of big men who didnt produce as freshmen. that is the nature of raw, project big men which is exactly what meyers was. he simply was not physically ready to play a large role for a team like the illini, who, under weber was not a team that churned out one and done-rs or even relied heavily on freshmen. they were a senior laden team with a senior starting frontcourt.
in a world where college teams wouldnt have to play freshmen who werent ready in order to attract future 4-5 star recruits, that is exactly how projects should be brought along. meyers sat and watched, worked on his game during the season and off-season, and despite his lack of minutes as a freshman, tried out for team USA, made the team and was one of the most productive players on the team. his play on team USA carried over and he went from bench warmer reserve, to the focal point of illini's offense and opposing defenses.

it's not how you start, it's how you finish, or in this case, it is how the prospect progresses. meyers made a very impressive leap from freshmen to sophomore yr. which brings me back to one of my usual talking points when discussing prospects: rate of progression. how a player progresses from one yr to next is an often overlooked aspect when trying to figure out a player's potential. the ability to acquire and implement skill, improve physically, gain a better understanding of the game are all signs of a player's ability to get better yr after yr. meyers improved in ALL facets of his game. that, combined with his tremendous physical tools and athleticism makes him an extremely intriguing talent with a high ceiling.

and yes, pace and possessions do have enough impact on college stats, enough to explain slight differences in per minute rates. this isnt like the nba where there's only 30 teams with a more narrow range of variances.
idontgiveashtaboutmelo
8305
Analyst
Posts: 3,272
And1: 263
Joined: Jun 11, 2009
     

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#34 » by 8305 » Wed Apr 18, 2012 1:05 am

From what i've seen and heard of Leonard the comparisons to Hansbrough and Hibbert don't fit. Haven't seen the Hibbert work ethic or the Hansbrough aggressiveness. Not saying he can't be good, in fact I struggle to find a comparable. Tony Seikly?
User avatar
Grits n Gravy
General Manager
Posts: 9,367
And1: 1,576
Joined: Feb 22, 2010
Location: New Zealand
 

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#35 » by Grits n Gravy » Wed Apr 18, 2012 1:21 am

whats the difference between myers leonard and bj mullens?

i've only seen 2 games of leonard(played bad in 1st, outstanding in 2nd) and seen a little of bj.

both big, bouncy 7 footers...bj doesn't have a post game to speak of i believe and pure face up guy...myers more post game but probably not as good a jumper....both have toughness issues, myers will probably be a better rebounder.....outside of those things(again very limited looks) i don't see too much of a difference....leonards post potential and better rebounding(slightly) probably make him a better prospect but not by a whole lot
User avatar
Rockmaninoff
General Manager
Posts: 7,615
And1: 1,625
Joined: Jan 11, 2008
   

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#36 » by Rockmaninoff » Wed Apr 18, 2012 1:26 am

ManualRam wrote:
there's been plenty of big men who didnt produce as freshmen. that is the nature of raw, project big men which is exactly what meyers was. he simply was not physically ready to play a large role for a team like the illini, who, under weber was not a team that churned out one and done-rs or even relied heavily on freshmen. they were a senior laden team with a senior starting frontcourt.
in a world where college teams wouldnt have to play freshmen who werent ready in order to attract future 4-5 star recruits, that is exactly how projects should be brought along. meyers sat and watched, worked on his game during the season and off-season, and despite his lack of minutes as a freshman, tried out for team USA, made the team and was one of the most productive players on the team. his play on team USA carried over and he went from bench warmer reserve, to the focal point of illini's offense and opposing defenses.

it's not how you start, it's how you finish, or in this case, it is how the prospect progresses. meyers made a very impressive leap from freshmen to sophomore yr. which brings me back to one of my usual talking points when discussing prospects: rate of progression. how a player progresses from one yr to next is an often overlooked aspect when trying to figure out a player's potential. the ability to acquire and implement skill, improve physically, gain a better understanding of the game are all signs of a player's ability to get better yr after yr. meyers improved in ALL facets of his game. that, combined with his tremendous physical tools and athleticism makes him an extremely intriguing talent with a high ceiling.

and yes, pace and possessions do have enough impact on college stats, enough to explain slight differences in per minute rates. this isnt like the nba where there's only 30 teams with a more narrow range of variances.


I'm not ignoring his improvement, I just don't find it to be terribly exciting. It's seems like it's leading you to the assumption that he'll go to the NBA and exponentially improve. I just don't buy it. I've never seen evidence that supports the idea that becoming a good NCAA over time equals a higher probability of NBA success. You're welcome to your opinion, though.

As far as the team possessions go:

Code: Select all

          Poss/40
Hibbert   59.8
Horford   68.7
Leonard   65.2



All that says to me is that Hibbert's per minute stats are a little better than they appear, Horford's a little worse, and both are still better than Leonard's.
MilBucksBackOnTop06 wrote:The fight for civil rights just like for liberty and justice and peace won't be won by man. It will take a god...so lets move on to sports.

Magic Giannison wrote:Giannis is god but even god's cannot save our **** team.
User avatar
Dr Positivity
RealGM
Posts: 46,243
And1: 10,699
Joined: Apr 29, 2009
       

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#37 » by Dr Positivity » Wed Apr 18, 2012 1:55 am

Grits n Gravy wrote:whats the difference between myers leonard and bj mullens?

i've only seen 2 games of leonard(played bad in 1st, outstanding in 2nd) and seen a little of bj.

both big, bouncy 7 footers...bj doesn't have a post game to speak of i believe and pure face up guy...myers more post game but probably not as good a jumper....both have toughness issues, myers will probably be a better rebounder.....outside of those things(again very limited looks) i don't see too much of a difference....leonards post potential and better rebounding(slightly) probably make him a better prospect but not by a whole lot


Well Leonard is to Mullens as Perry Jones III is to Anthony Randolph. Mullens and Randolph actually have tools as good as their counterparts from a pure physical/skill perspective and thus the comparison *seems* valid. Mullens was ranked #1 out of high school so a comparison to him talent wise isn't that big of an insult. What it comes down to for them is the basketball IQ and feel for the position. I believe in those areas if you don't have it, you don't have it. Mullens reads the game as well as a guy like Javale McGee: Not well.

The closest thing I've seen to a statistic that coorelates with basketball IQ is assist/turnover ratio. Mullens' in college was 0.2 and Randolph's 0.4. McGee was 0.2, Deandre Jordan was 0.3, Thabeet was 0.2. One of the few dumb players with a not bad number is Tyrus with 0.7. To give an idea of how low these numbers are, only 5 players on DX's presently ranked top 100 are 0.4 or lower in A/T. One of those players is Andre Drummond (0.29). Leonard's is .63 which is around the middle of the pack but ranks 2nd among Cs in the top 100.
asubstituteforwar.wordpress.com

Recent article: Are Andrew Wiggins and Brandon Ingram's starts for real?
User avatar
ManualRam
RealGM
Posts: 23,361
And1: 2,742
Joined: Jun 25, 2004
     

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#38 » by ManualRam » Wed Apr 18, 2012 2:44 am

Rockmaninoff wrote:
ManualRam wrote:
there's been plenty of big men who didnt produce as freshmen. that is the nature of raw, project big men which is exactly what meyers was. he simply was not physically ready to play a large role for a team like the illini, who, under weber was not a team that churned out one and done-rs or even relied heavily on freshmen. they were a senior laden team with a senior starting frontcourt.
in a world where college teams wouldnt have to play freshmen who werent ready in order to attract future 4-5 star recruits, that is exactly how projects should be brought along. meyers sat and watched, worked on his game during the season and off-season, and despite his lack of minutes as a freshman, tried out for team USA, made the team and was one of the most productive players on the team. his play on team USA carried over and he went from bench warmer reserve, to the focal point of illini's offense and opposing defenses.

it's not how you start, it's how you finish, or in this case, it is how the prospect progresses. meyers made a very impressive leap from freshmen to sophomore yr. which brings me back to one of my usual talking points when discussing prospects: rate of progression. how a player progresses from one yr to next is an often overlooked aspect when trying to figure out a player's potential. the ability to acquire and implement skill, improve physically, gain a better understanding of the game are all signs of a player's ability to get better yr after yr. meyers improved in ALL facets of his game. that, combined with his tremendous physical tools and athleticism makes him an extremely intriguing talent with a high ceiling.

and yes, pace and possessions do have enough impact on college stats, enough to explain slight differences in per minute rates. this isnt like the nba where there's only 30 teams with a more narrow range of variances.


I'm not ignoring his improvement, I just don't find it to be terribly exciting. It's seems like it's leading you to the assumption that he'll go to the NBA and exponentially improve. I just don't buy it. I've never seen evidence that supports the idea that becoming a good NCAA over time equals a higher probability of NBA success. You're welcome to your opinion, though.

As far as the team possessions go:

Code: Select all

          Poss/40
Hibbert   59.8
Horford   68.7
Leonard   65.2



All that says to me is that Hibbert's per minute stats are a little better than they appear, Horford's a little worse, and both are still better than Leonard's.


it's not like meyers' NBA prospects came out of nowhere. he was projected lotto prior to the start of his freshmen season. the physical tools and potential were always there. the ability to improve and the rate of improvement are very important. it's not just about becoming a better NCAA player, it's about becoming a better player in a short span of time, period. that shows that he understands his flaws and works on them. it shows that he has the work ethic to improve, physically and in terms of skill. the best players are the ones who can learn and incorporate skill quickly. they're the ones who are able to add new elements to their game year after year. meyers as a sophomore has shown better offensive instincts and skill than other young, raw, athletic C's like mcgee, jordan, r.lopez, thabeet, etc.


meyers went from just a tall, athletic C who physically dominated low level HS ball to a C who had a solid foundation of scoring and passing skill out of the post. he also showed glimpses of advanced skill that you just dont see out of raw, athletic C's in this era. from being able to run the offense from the post, to reading doubles properly and making the correct pass, to being able to use counter-counter moves in the post (like utilizing shoulder shakes to set up counters), etc.
he hasnt just shown skill that a developing big learns, like drop steps or baby hooks, he's shown glimpses of advanced skill that is not common for a C as raw and athletic as he is.

unlike horford (who i think was a better prospect but has not been able to play his natural position), he has legit C size to go along with his prototype athleticism. he is a much better athlete than hibbert is as well, but what he doesnt have currently that hibbert had even as a sophomore was lower body strength, which i think will come in time given his work ethic in the weight room.
idontgiveashtaboutmelo
User avatar
ManualRam
RealGM
Posts: 23,361
And1: 2,742
Joined: Jun 25, 2004
     

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#39 » by ManualRam » Wed Apr 18, 2012 2:49 am

Grits n Gravy wrote:whats the difference between myers leonard and bj mullens?

i've only seen 2 games of leonard(played bad in 1st, outstanding in 2nd) and seen a little of bj.

both big, bouncy 7 footers...bj doesn't have a post game to speak of i believe and pure face up guy...myers more post game but probably not as good a jumper....both have toughness issues, myers will probably be a better rebounder.....outside of those things(again very limited looks) i don't see too much of a difference....leonards post potential and better rebounding(slightly) probably make him a better prospect but not by a whole lot

meyers isnt afraid of mixing it up on the interior and fighting for position. mullens fashions himself as a finesse 5 and was (and still is) unwilling to do the dirty work.

not only does meyers have more potential out of the post, but he also sees the floor very well and has shown good passing instincts for a guy with as little experience. i think what helps him in this aspect was the fact that meyers grew up as a guard until he experienced growth spurts as a freshman and sophomore. mullens is a skilled scorer but he plays like he's just practicing one-on-one moves out there. he's the center equivalent of a perimeter chucker.

physically, meyers is better as well. mullens at one point had the potential to be a physical beast, but he lacked the work ethic in the weight room. the way he looks now is how he looked in the past, no definition at all. he didnt add bulk, in fact he lost weight.
meyers puts in work in the weight room. in the span of one college season and an off-season he was able to put 20+ lbs of muscle, without losing any of his mobility. he's not just tall, long and lanky. he's chiseled with a big frame and wide shoulders to put on even more weight. what he does need to work on is his lower body strength so that he'd be able to hold his position better. given his work ethic i think he'll be able to do so.
idontgiveashtaboutmelo
Johnlac1
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,184
And1: 1,501
Joined: Jan 21, 2012
 

Re: Will Meyers Leonard be an all-star? 

Post#40 » by Johnlac1 » Wed Apr 18, 2012 5:36 pm

Grits n Gravy wrote:whats the difference between myers leonard and bj mullens?

i've only seen 2 games of leonard(played bad in 1st, outstanding in 2nd) and seen a little of bj.

both big, bouncy 7 footers...bj doesn't have a post game to speak of i believe and pure face up guy...myers more post game but probably not as good a jumper....both have toughness issues, myers will probably be a better rebounder.....outside of those things(again very limited looks) i don't see too much of a difference....leonards post potential and better rebounding(slightly) probably make him a better prospect but not by a whole lot

Similar athletic abilities...Mullens might be a better athlete, but Leonard has good physical ability. Mullens problems stem from the fact that he's sort of a meathead. It appears he was lazy coming out of high school and didn't put the effort in to be a good college player. Maybe he's changed, and did put up decent numbers for Charlotte this year( including a 31 pt, 14 rbd game against the Bucks) after many people had completely written him off. He can really shoot from the outside for a guy his size (much better than Leonard) and is turning into a decent rebounder. But he still plays poor on-ball defense and doesn't have an innate feel for the game. If he could beat his man off the dribble, he could score a lot more. His post up moves are weak. Another problem is he's not strong enough to guard the best centers, and not quick enough to guard the best power forwards. Despite many people still saying he has no future, the jury's out. He decided to play in the Olympics for the U,K. when he should be spending the off-season working on his game.
Leonard is a true center and despite having maturity problems, appears to have a better feel for the game than Mullens i.e. he's smarter. Still has to work on his offensive game. Nice looking shot out the foul line, but like Mullens, can't put it on the floor, and lacks good post up moves. But he decides to work hard, he can turn into a good player.

Return to NBA Draft