The Trey Burke - Chris Paul Comparison

Post #21 » by **jman3134** » Sat Feb 9, 2013 3:27 am

discord wrote:
jman3134 wrote:Burke is getting locked down tonight by Craft. It has been a clinic by him defensively.

Trey Burke went 6-12 and 4-7 from three. He also had 8 assist and 2 steals compared with 2 turnovers. Bothered may have been better word choice than "locked down".

Statistically, maybe he wasn't "locked down", I'll give you that. He certainly made an impact and saved the game in the end. But, he made some head scratching decisions and had his pocket picked a few times. Considering how many times he touched the ball, I'd say Craft did an excellent job on him.

Ell Curry · Post #22 » by **Ell Curry** » Sat Feb 9, 2013 3:57 pm

Craft played great D against Michigan, but Burke hit enough 3's and took care of the ball well enough to have a strong game. Still, if Hardaway doesn't get hot from 3pt land, the main story if Craft's D and Laquinton Ross having the game of his life.

Burke took a step back 3 with the game tied for no good reason, but other than that he played quite well. He's an underrated athlete, too. Again, he showed he can take care of the ball, run a productive offense and shoot from 3. Since he looks to be going mid-teens (too low for me) he'll probably have decent teammates. His profile is that of a great complimentary player. A 2nd perimeter option, maybe 3rd or 4th scorer overall on a really good team. I think he'd be great on Houston, spreading the floor for Harden and playing with Lin guarding 2, or Oklahoma City with Westbrook guarding 2's (They have Toronto's pick), or Utah, where he'd start from day 1.

As for Craft, I think he has a shot at the NBA. He's not great offensively, so he'd have to be an off the ball PG, but it's easy to see him as a backup PG playing off the ball and hitting 3's (he's not bad from outside) on offense while another perimeter player is the main ballhandler on offense (Miami have Wade out there when Lebron isn't, so that team makes sense, as do the Clippers if Bledsoe goes and Jamal Crawford keeps dominating the ball in the second unit ). The league is crazy strong at PG and PF, so guys who can dominate defensively at those spots are going to be more valuable. There aren't a ton of "Spread the Floor on O and Play Great D" guys at the PG spot (most of them play on the wing (I always think of Bruce Bowen as the archetype) , but stretch 4's are sort of an extension of this, and I don't see why a team with an SG or SF who runs a lot of pick and rolls wouldn't be comfortable with a player of this type at the 1. Having Craft to harass some of the great PG's for 10-15 minutes a game could be really destructive. So, if he can hit 3's and transition his physical D without getting too many fouls called against him by less permissive NBA refs, I like his potential as a backup PG.

Post #23 » by **jman3134** » Sat Feb 9, 2013 8:35 pm

http://shutupandjam.net/draft-rankings/

This guy has Burke rated #2 for projected career NBA +/- (He said career RAPM on APBRmetrics)

What is this based on? I wouldn't trust anything that says Erik Murphy is lottery.

Post #24 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:43 am

I know it's poor form to bump so let me put the disclaimer up front that I'm absolutely not claiming to be a college scouting expert:

What are people's thoughts on Burke's future now? If your thoughts have changed in the past couple months, please elaborate on that.

HeartBreakKid · Post #25 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 6:26 am

Doctor MJ wrote:I know it's poor form to bump so let me put the disclaimer up front that I'm absolutely not claiming to be a college scouting expert:

What are people's thoughts on Burke's future now? If your thoughts have changed in the past couple months, please elaborate on that.

Burke was arguably the best player in America this year, what I think this tournament has really done is put him as a consensus top ten amongst all mocks. He's easily the best PG in the draft, better than Smart by quite a bit if you ask me.

I'm a big Burke guy, a realistic floor for him is a Ty Lawsonish level of impact.

I think he can be the next star, he's great at scoring, great at passing (and more importantly willing), he can take over games. He can be like a smaller Deron Williams, guy is going to be a great player imo.

sisibilio · Post #26 » by **sisibilio** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 11:02 am

Based on extensive scouting and deep inquiry (watched the second half of last night's game) he looks more like Lillard than Paul, which is not neccessarily a bad thing.

Post #27 » by **UGA Hayes** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 12:10 pm

He had a great game against Kansas but this is why I think its a mistake to pay much attention to the tournament. His regular season is going to be the better indicator. He is an ok prospect.

machu46 · Post #28 » by **machu46** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:19 pm

My view on him hasn't really changed. I think he'll be a good backup PG in the NBA or a below average starter. I don't see him having much untapped potential. I think he's a good fit for a team that isn't too far away from being a playoff team, but I still like Smart and MCW more long-term. Those two have all-star potential (not saying that either of them will ever be all-stars, but I think if things bounce the right way, they could be). I don't really see that with Burke; he's just a solid player.

ManualRam · Post #29 » by **ManualRam** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 4:36 pm

i think he's definitely starter material for the simple fact that he's an advanced pnr player who also excels at shooting off the dribble. that's a great combination to have for an NBA PG since there is so much ball screen action in the NBA. he also takes care of the ball (#1 in AT ratio), has a high iq and has great intangibles. he's a leader, is absolutely fearless, and doesn't shy away from big moments, he gravitates towards them. burke is also very well-schooled off the ball so he doesn't need it to be effective. every perimeter player on michigan knows how to move off the ball and can catch and shoot.

BaunceyChillups · Post #30 » by **BaunceyChillups** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 4:57 pm

MCW has a TS% of 49.5 as a sophomore

that's pathetic

you can say Burke's size is an issue (though I feel his 6'5" wingspan makes up for it a bit) but MCW has way more red flags than him

Post #31 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:17 pm

UGA Hayes wrote:He had a great game against Kansas but this is why I think its a mistake to pay much attention to the tournament. His regular season is going to be the better indicator. He is an ok prospect.

Well okay, but he might win the POY honors for the regular season so this isn't someone who is exactly coming out of nowhere when he's the talk of the tournament.

I do understand though, he was starting to get POY buzz when I made this thread so it's pretty reasonable to say "I understood he was great in college then, but I still see the same issues going forward".

Post #32 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:21 pm

ManualRam wrote:i think he's definitely starter material for the simple fact that he's an advanced pnr player who also excels at shooting off the dribble. that's a great combination to have for an NBA PG since there is so much ball screen action in the NBA. he also takes care of the ball (#1 in AT ratio), has a high iq and has great intangibles. he's a leader, is absolutely fearless, and doesn't shy away from big moments, he gravitates towards them. burke is also very well-schooled off the ball so he doesn't need it to be effective. every perimeter player on michigan knows how to move off the ball and can catch and shoot.

See this is the stuff I see that leaves me amazed that people seem to see the height as such a big deal. Not saying I think he'll be as good as Paul, but if height rarely even seem noticeable for Paul, why should it be a deal breaker for Burke?

HeartBreakKid · Post #33 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:58 pm

UGA Hayes wrote:He had a great game against Kansas but this is why I think its a mistake to pay much attention to the tournament. His regular season is going to be the better indicator. He is an ok prospect.

He was great during the regular season though. He was arguably the best player during certain points.

machu46 · Post #34 » by **machu46** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 6:03 pm

BaunceyChillups wrote:MCW has a TS% of 49.5 as a sophomore

that's pathetic

you can say Burke's size is an issue (though I feel his 6'5" wingspan makes up for it a bit) but MCW has way more red flags than him

Way more potential though IMO.

BaunceyChillups · Post #35 » by **BaunceyChillups** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 6:09 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
ManualRam wrote:i think he's definitely starter material for the simple fact that he's an advanced pnr player who also excels at shooting off the dribble. that's a great combination to have for an NBA PG since there is so much ball screen action in the NBA. he also takes care of the ball (#1 in AT ratio), has a high iq and has great intangibles. he's a leader, is absolutely fearless, and doesn't shy away from big moments, he gravitates towards them. burke is also very well-schooled off the ball so he doesn't need it to be effective. every perimeter player on michigan knows how to move off the ball and can catch and shoot.

See this is the stuff I see that leaves me amazed that people seem to see the height as such a big deal. Not saying I think he'll be as good as Paul, but if height rarely even seem noticeable for Paul, why should it be a deal breaker for Burke?

CP3 is one of the best ever at keeping a dribble alive in traffic so that helped mitigate some issues with his height. But in general I agree that size really doesn't mean much for point guards when you've got 5'10" dudes like Lawson and Isaiah doing well and plenty of 6'0" dudes like Lowry and Conley.

My main question with Burke is how well will he be able to get into the paint in the NBA, I haven't seen him do it that much in college without a ball-screen. Now the poor spacing, zone defenses and overall slower pace of the NCAA might be masking his ability to do so but it's a definitely a concern going forward I think.

Dr Positivity · Post #36 » by **Dr Positivity** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 6:11 pm

Well the size doesn't help but I'd put lack of elite athleticism as the primary concern, not sold on him scoring in the paint that well.

He's also one of those guys where so much is resting on great and not just respectable 3pt shooting which would worry me a bit because hard to feel totally assured with shooters, barring the Curry and Redick type of freaks. eg. If he shoots "only" as well as Ty Lawson it'll be very difficult for him to stand out in my opinion.

As for the Paul comp I think he and Burke have a similar relationship as Smart and Gary Payton or Olynyk and Chris Bosh, there are similarities but with Paul Payton Bosh are elite in areas where Burke Smart Olynyk are good and that creates a wide gap. Paul might be the greatest pound for pound skill and feel for the game player ever so Burke great talent in those areas arguably is a steep cliff down. Or another comp I remember how strong the Evan Turner Brandon Roy comparisons were, but remove some speed, shooting and IQ from Roy's heights and Turner fell a long way despite the similarities

BaunceyChillups · Post #37 » by **BaunceyChillups** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 6:54 pm

I think there's a greater precedent for guys similar to Burke being successful in the NBA however, Jameer Nelson in his prime was an all-star and I think Burke can be a better player than him. The more dubious comparison for Burke is DJ Augustin but even he had an excellent rookie season and was an on encouraging path before Larry Brown destroyed his soul.

Eoghan · Post #38 » by **Eoghan** » Sat Mar 30, 2013 7:28 pm

"Trey Burke reminds me of DJ Augustin" - Steve Kerr during the Michigan-Kansas game.

nybluemeadow · Post #39 » by **nybluemeadow** » Sun Mar 31, 2013 12:42 am

Burke is no where on the same level a Paul, but he will be good and more on the same level that Mike Conley is at.

Post #40 » by **UGA Hayes** » Sun Mar 31, 2013 3:05 am

My hesitation is that he good but not great numbers, I have no argument that he is one of the best pg prospect in college, but with the caveat that it hinges somewhat on a weak crop of PG. To me is almost a Jameer Nelson type impact guy, one that maybe sneaks into an all star game, but not one to hang with the Rose/Paul/WB/Rondo crowd.