The New Julius Randle

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MellowRose
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The New Julius Randle 

Post#1 » by MellowRose » Mon Mar 31, 2014 1:18 am

Pros? Cons?

How much has he changed his game? Has he impressed you? What does he need to work on? Where would you pick him in the draft, based on his CURRENT play and on his potential?
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#2 » by doordoor123 » Mon Mar 31, 2014 1:34 am

His ceiling seems higher than it was. Sometimes, in that last game, he seems unstoppable. He could end up being a LeBron James-type.
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#3 » by Mik317 » Mon Mar 31, 2014 1:38 am

doordoor123 wrote:His ceiling seems higher than it was. Sometimes, in that last game, he seems unstoppable. He could end up being a LeBron James-type.



wat the wat
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#4 » by Notanoob » Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:18 am

doordoor123 wrote:His ceiling seems higher than it was. Sometimes, in that last game, he seems unstoppable. He could end up being a LeBron James-type.
In that last game he was being guarded by the 6'6" and 210lbs Glen Robinson, who he had 3 inches and 40lbs on, and even saw Zach Irvin guarding him once or twice, who is also 6'6" 185lbs. I wouldn't put too much stock into this particular game.


His reach hasn't improved. His steals+block numbers are still poor, as are his assist numbers. Nor is he an impressive leaper (high standard here for me). So all of those are not good indicators. Steals/blocks and vert all are predictive of PF defense in the NBA, so Randle does not project to be a great defender. He can excel as a post defender due to his strength, but that's about it.

On the other hand, he is one of the best rebounders in this draft class, and good college rebounders are good NBA rebounders, so he has an elite skill to sell a team on and carve out a roll for himself. His face up game is pretty nice. He draws a TON of fouls, which is very valuable, especially since is FG% isn't standing out. If his jumpshooting becomes at least respectable, he should be a very useful offensive player. His FT% is not abysmal like Aaron Gordon's is, so there is hope for him to improve there.

He is a bit TO prone, and needs to try and improve his passing, but that's the sort of thing that generally doesn't change. He does pass out of double teams, which is good, but his play-making in general is not that great. He has a terrible A/TO ratio.

He's a lottery pick for sure I think, but how high he goes depends on a lot of things. I can't judge him against international prospects, because I simply don't know enough about them. Plus, team needs come into the equation. But uh, say 5th overall? If Exum doesn't impress in the workouts, I could easily see the Lakers drafting him. Not the Celtics or Bucks (if they get passed in the lottery); maybe the 76ers if they're 3rd. I'm not a huge fan, but I think this draft is pretty overrated in general, so I still would place him fairly high on a big-board. I like Vonleh more than him, and I feel like Stokes is close to him as well, but whatever.

I expect that he should pan out into a solid player, but I don't know if he'll be a real star. Good rebounding+scoring is a nice combination that will earn him a starting job, but his playmaking and defense will hold him back. I don't know if he's a good enough scorer to earn an all-star appearance, especially if he doesn't develop a decent jumper.

Relevant articles, credit to CBB_fan:
http://hardwoodparoxysm.com/archive/201 ... d-defense/
http://www.canishoopus.com/2014/2/26/54 ... -prospects
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#5 » by MellowRose » Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:34 am

Notanoob wrote:
doordoor123 wrote:His ceiling seems higher than it was. Sometimes, in that last game, he seems unstoppable. He could end up being a LeBron James-type.
In that last game he was being guarded by the 6'6" and 210lbs Glen Robinson, who he had 3 inches and 40lbs on, and even saw Zach Irvin guarding him once or twice, who is also 6'6" 185lbs. I wouldn't put too much stock into this particular game.


His reach hasn't improved. His steals+block numbers are still poor, as are his assist numbers. Nor is he an impressive leaper (high standard here for me). So all of those are not good indicators. Steals/blocks and vert all are predictive of PF defense in the NBA, so Randle does not project to be a great defender. He can excel as a post defender due to his strength, but that's about it.

On the other hand, he is one of the best rebounders in this draft class, and good college rebounders are good NBA rebounders, so he has an elite skill to sell a team on and carve out a roll for himself. His face up game is pretty nice. He draws a TON of fouls, which is very valuable, especially since is FG% isn't standing out. If his jumpshooting becomes at least respectable, he should be a very useful offensive player. His FT% is not abysmal like Aaron Gordon's is, so there is hope for him to improve there.

He is a bit TO prone, and needs to try and improve his passing, but that's the sort of thing that generally doesn't change. He does pass out of double teams, which is good, but his play-making in general is not that great. He has a terrible A/TO ratio.

He's a lottery pick for sure I think, but how high he goes depends on a lot of things. I can't judge him against international prospects, because I simply don't know enough about them. Plus, team needs come into the equation. But uh, say 5th overall? If Exum doesn't impress in the workouts, I could easily see the Lakers drafting him. Not the Celtics or Bucks (if they get passed in the lottery); maybe the 76ers if they're 3rd. I'm not a huge fan, but I think this draft is pretty overrated in general, so I still would place him fairly high on a big-board. I like Vonleh more than him, and I feel like Stokes is close to him as well, but whatever.

I expect that he should pan out into a solid player, but I don't know if he'll be a real star. Good rebounding+scoring is a nice combination that will earn him a starting job, but his playmaking and defense will hold him back. I don't know if he's a good enough scorer to earn an all-star appearance, especially if he doesn't develop a decent jumper.

Relevant articles, credit to CBB_fan:
http://hardwoodparoxysm.com/archive/201 ... d-defense/
http://www.canishoopus.com/2014/2/26/54 ... -prospects


His knock on defense is somewhat unfair. He plays solid defense on his man. Doesn't have a high block or steal number because he doesn't gamble. He bodies up his man and contests the shot. That's all a good defender needs to do.

Playmaking is something that can be improved. IMO.
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#6 » by doordoor123 » Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:38 am

Look, he can do everything. And I think he's proven that he can be ridiculously athletic. He's also sneaky fast for a big guy. All of that combined with his strength is LeBron-type athletic. Like an athletic player that can just dominate the basket. Blake Griffin is also like that.
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#7 » by Notanoob » Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:41 am

MellowRose wrote:His knock on defense is somewhat unfair. He plays solid defense on his man. Doesn't have a high block or steal number because he doesn't gamble. He bodies up his man and contests the shot. That's all a good defender needs to do.

Playmaking is something that can be improved. IMO.
Playing a conservative style of defense does indeed impact steal/block numbers, but only so much of course. He really shouldn't be a sieve in the NBA, but I don't think that he'll be an impact defender. Plus, his length will hurt his ability to contest shots against taller PFs in the NBA.

Playmaking can indeed be improved, but the question in, by how much? Generally (as per the 2nd article I linked in my comment) guys with poor A/TO ratios in college will have poor A/TO ratios in the NBA, even though they generally improve. It's not a death sentence, but I just wouldn't count on it.
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#8 » by brackdan70 » Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:52 am

doordoor123 wrote:Look, he can do everything. And I think he's proven that he can be ridiculously athletic. He's also sneaky fast for a big guy. All of that combined with his strength is LeBron-type athletic. Like an athletic player that can just dominate the basket. Blake Griffin is also like that.


:noway: :crazy:
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#9 » by doordoor123 » Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:53 am

brackdan70 wrote:
doordoor123 wrote:Look, he can do everything. And I think he's proven that he can be ridiculously athletic. He's also sneaky fast for a big guy. All of that combined with his strength is LeBron-type athletic. Like an athletic player that can just dominate the basket. Blake Griffin is also like that.


:noway: :crazy:



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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#10 » by Dr Positivity » Mon Mar 31, 2014 3:50 am

Well I've been one of his biggest supporters from the beginning. His athleticism wasn't as good as I expected this year, albeit he may have athleticism in a functionally useful way - meaning being sneaky quick getting by defenders probably means more than dunking on people. Still, his feel for the game is very underrated and his skill game has a lot of potential. Not only is his touch at the basket pretty unteachable, but I still have confidence in his perimeter shooting game once he gets away from what Cal wants. Not that he has to hit 3s, but a legitimate 15-20 footer would be big for his game (and hitting 3s is still in play). I would probably take him 1st considering a) The most talented prospect Embiid scares me bc of his back and history of true 7 footers/health b) I have Stauskas as 2nd best prospect but value wise would find another way to get him besides burning the #1 pick.
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#11 » by Mik317 » Mon Mar 31, 2014 4:03 am

I have turned my opinion on Randle around as of late but....holy balls this thread is insane
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#12 » by Knighthonor » Mon Mar 31, 2014 9:17 am

Randle == Drummonds 2.0 all over again?
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#13 » by Knighthonor » Mon Mar 31, 2014 9:55 am

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdsY62qaCoA[/youtube]

this guy is explosive... how he slip under the radar?
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#14 » by Talent Chaser » Mon Mar 31, 2014 1:08 pm

This guy is a walking double double as soon as he steps foot on an NBA court, I see his peak as 18/12 on good efficiency with average defense. Should be picked in the 3-5 range. His athleticism and skill level are ridiculously underrated in this thread.
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#15 » by flying_mollusk » Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:20 pm

They showed a stat yesterday that I thought was telling. Top four freshman all time in double doubles in a season. In order, Beasley, Randle, Love, Melo. Other than Beasley, whose downfall was his own lack of work ethic, that's good company to be in.

Oh yeah, and Love's wingspan is 6-11.25, while Randle's is 6-11.
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#16 » by Notanoob » Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:49 pm

Knighthonor wrote:[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdsY62qaCoA[/youtube]

this guy is explosive... how he slip under the radar?
Easy, he wasn't being guarded by shooting guard sized guys all year long.
flying_mollusk wrote:They showed a stat yesterday that I thought was telling. Top four freshman all time in double doubles in a season. In order, Beasley, Randle, Love, Melo. Other than Beasley, whose downfall was his own lack of work ethic, that's good company to be in.

Oh yeah, and Love's wingspan is 6-11.25, while Randle's is 6-11.

That is indeed good company, but he isn't nearly the same scorer as Beasley, Love or Melo, and he isn't the same rebounder that Love is.

Love's game is different from Randle's, and he sucks at defense too, at least in part because of his wingspan. If he develops Love's instincts for rebounding or his shooting touch, then perhaps his poor length will not be as big of a deal.
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#17 » by MellowRose » Mon Mar 31, 2014 3:49 pm

Notanoob wrote:
Knighthonor wrote:[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdsY62qaCoA[/youtube]

this guy is explosive... how he slip under the radar?
Easy, he wasn't being guarded by shooting guard sized guys all year long.
flying_mollusk wrote:They showed a stat yesterday that I thought was telling. Top four freshman all time in double doubles in a season. In order, Beasley, Randle, Love, Melo. Other than Beasley, whose downfall was his own lack of work ethic, that's good company to be in.

Oh yeah, and Love's wingspan is 6-11.25, while Randle's is 6-11.

That is indeed good company, but he isn't nearly the same scorer as Beasley, Love or Melo, and he isn't the same rebounder that Love is.

Love's game is different from Randle's, and he sucks at defense too, at least in part because of his wingspan. If he develops Love's instincts for rebounding or his shooting touch, then perhaps his poor length will not be as big of a deal.


Wingspan is being overvalued way too much. Sure, it's helpful, but it's not the END ALL BE ALL.

Also, Love and Randle have averaged the same amount of rebounds in college. Randle is an elite rebounder.
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#18 » by ManualRam » Mon Mar 31, 2014 4:04 pm

the only thing that has changed over the course of the season is that he's being put in a position to face up instead of post up. that has always been where he was most comfortable so i don't see a "new" julius randle.
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#19 » by Notanoob » Mon Mar 31, 2014 4:15 pm

MellowRose wrote:Wingspan is being overvalued way too much. Sure, it's helpful, but it's not the END ALL BE ALL.

Also, Love and Randle have averaged the same amount of rebounds in college. Randle is an elite rebounder.
Per 40 minutes pace adjusted, Love actually pulled down .7 rebound more than Randle. Randle is certainly an elite rebounder, but there's something that seems different about the way Love pulls down boards. I don't think that Randle will be as good as Love, even if he's still turn out to be one of the top rebounders in the league.

Reach means more than wingspan, really, especially for PFs, and Randle is just a half-inch below where you want a PF to be. Without a great vertical leap to make up for it, it's just something to take into account, especially in combination with his steals and blocks numbers.
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Re: The New Julius Randle 

Post#20 » by MellowRose » Mon Mar 31, 2014 4:19 pm

ManualRam wrote:the only thing that has changed over the course of the season is that he's being put in a position to face up instead of post up. that has always been where he was most comfortable so i don't see a "new" julius randle.


Seems to be a more willing passer and team player. Not forcing too much anymore. Seems like a new Randle to me everytime I watch him.

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