Future draft classes
Posted: Sat Apr 5, 2014 5:50 pm
I'll be focusing first on the 2015 draft class, mainly on high school players in the next recruiting class. There's a chance Jabari Parker or Joel Embiid stays, and in that case I'd take either #1 or #2 overall, but it is hard to judge which college level players will take their games to the next level. First, Emmanuel Mudiay.
Highlight video.
Mudiay is NOT just a tall PG. We've seen them come and go, and often times they get overhyped because of their size. Mudiay is 6'5", but he has the other stuff as well. In comparison to a similar profiled athletes this year, Mudiay is quicker and has more PG skills than the Harrison twins. He's still not a pure point, like a Nash or Paul, but more of a scoring point guard like a Westbrook or Rose.
The most important physical trait a PG needs at the NBA level is quickness, and Mudiay is quick. His combination of size and speed give him a big advantage when he attacks the paint, which his #1 scoring method. Mudiay also makes use of a step-back jumper, though it remains to be seen whether he'll be a good shooter at the next level. I would take Mudiay #1 overall if the 2015 draft happened now.
Past Mudiay, you have a variety of post options. Jahlil Okafor is the best prospect of these, a 6'10 center spending his college year at Duke. He's not an explosive athlete, but he's quick enough. Highlights. He's a true center with good touch, good footwork, and good hands.
Next up, Myles Turner. Highlights. He is a currently undeclared footer that thinks he's a stretch four, and is very skilled. He likes to stick around the perimeter, but he's a half step quicker than Okafor. I get a worrisome Isaiah Austin vibe from him though; it is very hard for a young post player to balance out shooting from long range and developing the inside game needed to succeed at an NBA level. Shooting ability is nice in a big, but scoring on the block and off the pick and roll should still come first.
Karls Towns Jr. is another big man infatuated with the perimeter; he chose Kentucky. He's a little slower than Turner, but a maybe a better shooter. Highlights. He does have decent post skills, but needs a bit more polish and strength training than the posts I've mentioned earlier. Still a top 5 or top 10 pick though.
The final post at the top of the 2015 draft class is Cliff Alexander, who like Okafor is another Chicago area talent (seriously, that city is amazing at producing talent) who chose Kansas over Illinois in a very publicized hat ceremony. At 6'8", he's the shortest of these prospects but plays like the biggest, with an impressive 7'3" wingspan. Highlights. I've avoided giving NBA comparisons because they always seem to fall short, but Alexander plays like a shorter Drummond. He dunks and blocks everything and is very theatrical about it, and in an age of face-up big men is a refreshing blast to the past. I think he'll be the best freshman post next year because he knows his game, and he's the perfect Bill Self big. Will probably get docked on his height come draft time though.
Those are the big four from this class, the guys that I believe are sure one and dones. Next, I'll talk about the other guys. First off, a group of fairly similar PGs. Top of of the list, Tyus Jones, who chose to go with Okafor to Duke. He is a Tyler Ennis, Fred Van Vleet type college PG, and probably not a one and done unless Duke wins it all next year. Makes his teammates better, does everything well, but not very tall or very quick by NBA standards.
Joel Berry is another multiple year PG that chose UNC, but he's more athletic than Jones. He's short though, at only 6'0". Most concerning, he shows a lot of favoritism for his right hand. Tyler Ulis (UK) is another athletic PG, but at 5'9" is almost certainly not an NBA prospect. The point I'm trying to make is that next year does not seem to be a good year to pick up a PG after Mudiay.
There are a variety of wing prospects as well, but none at the same level as Wiggins or Parker this year. At the top of that list are Stanley Johnson (Arizona), Justin Jackson (UNC), Theo Pinson (UNC), and Kelly Oubre (KU). Pinson is the top athlete of the bunch and probably going to be picked the highest. Oubre is the next best athlete from what I've seen, and probably also a lottery pick. Johnson is a good defender and very strong, but he seems to play a lot of bully ball. Jackson has the most range and shooting, and if that holds up might be able to jump the others for draft position.
Bottom line: This draft class is for Mudiay and posts. Very little PG depth, not a lot on the wings. But the posts in this class are the best in a years, and Mudiay looks to be an elite scoring PG at the next level. I'll talk about 2016 and 2017 next, particularly the freak that is Thon Maker.
Highlight video.
Mudiay is NOT just a tall PG. We've seen them come and go, and often times they get overhyped because of their size. Mudiay is 6'5", but he has the other stuff as well. In comparison to a similar profiled athletes this year, Mudiay is quicker and has more PG skills than the Harrison twins. He's still not a pure point, like a Nash or Paul, but more of a scoring point guard like a Westbrook or Rose.
The most important physical trait a PG needs at the NBA level is quickness, and Mudiay is quick. His combination of size and speed give him a big advantage when he attacks the paint, which his #1 scoring method. Mudiay also makes use of a step-back jumper, though it remains to be seen whether he'll be a good shooter at the next level. I would take Mudiay #1 overall if the 2015 draft happened now.
Past Mudiay, you have a variety of post options. Jahlil Okafor is the best prospect of these, a 6'10 center spending his college year at Duke. He's not an explosive athlete, but he's quick enough. Highlights. He's a true center with good touch, good footwork, and good hands.
Next up, Myles Turner. Highlights. He is a currently undeclared footer that thinks he's a stretch four, and is very skilled. He likes to stick around the perimeter, but he's a half step quicker than Okafor. I get a worrisome Isaiah Austin vibe from him though; it is very hard for a young post player to balance out shooting from long range and developing the inside game needed to succeed at an NBA level. Shooting ability is nice in a big, but scoring on the block and off the pick and roll should still come first.
Karls Towns Jr. is another big man infatuated with the perimeter; he chose Kentucky. He's a little slower than Turner, but a maybe a better shooter. Highlights. He does have decent post skills, but needs a bit more polish and strength training than the posts I've mentioned earlier. Still a top 5 or top 10 pick though.
The final post at the top of the 2015 draft class is Cliff Alexander, who like Okafor is another Chicago area talent (seriously, that city is amazing at producing talent) who chose Kansas over Illinois in a very publicized hat ceremony. At 6'8", he's the shortest of these prospects but plays like the biggest, with an impressive 7'3" wingspan. Highlights. I've avoided giving NBA comparisons because they always seem to fall short, but Alexander plays like a shorter Drummond. He dunks and blocks everything and is very theatrical about it, and in an age of face-up big men is a refreshing blast to the past. I think he'll be the best freshman post next year because he knows his game, and he's the perfect Bill Self big. Will probably get docked on his height come draft time though.
Those are the big four from this class, the guys that I believe are sure one and dones. Next, I'll talk about the other guys. First off, a group of fairly similar PGs. Top of of the list, Tyus Jones, who chose to go with Okafor to Duke. He is a Tyler Ennis, Fred Van Vleet type college PG, and probably not a one and done unless Duke wins it all next year. Makes his teammates better, does everything well, but not very tall or very quick by NBA standards.
Joel Berry is another multiple year PG that chose UNC, but he's more athletic than Jones. He's short though, at only 6'0". Most concerning, he shows a lot of favoritism for his right hand. Tyler Ulis (UK) is another athletic PG, but at 5'9" is almost certainly not an NBA prospect. The point I'm trying to make is that next year does not seem to be a good year to pick up a PG after Mudiay.
There are a variety of wing prospects as well, but none at the same level as Wiggins or Parker this year. At the top of that list are Stanley Johnson (Arizona), Justin Jackson (UNC), Theo Pinson (UNC), and Kelly Oubre (KU). Pinson is the top athlete of the bunch and probably going to be picked the highest. Oubre is the next best athlete from what I've seen, and probably also a lottery pick. Johnson is a good defender and very strong, but he seems to play a lot of bully ball. Jackson has the most range and shooting, and if that holds up might be able to jump the others for draft position.
Bottom line: This draft class is for Mudiay and posts. Very little PG depth, not a lot on the wings. But the posts in this class are the best in a years, and Mudiay looks to be an elite scoring PG at the next level. I'll talk about 2016 and 2017 next, particularly the freak that is Thon Maker.