Marcus Smart comparisons

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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#41 » by The_Hater » Tue Apr 22, 2014 4:12 pm

bibby1023 wrote:We're having a discussion in the Kings forum about Marcus smart and who he compares to in today's nba. Some names that were mentioned:

Tyreke
Rodney stuckey
Russ Westbrook
Eric Bledsoe

Are these fair comparisons? Who do you guys think he compares to?


Wade, Stephenson, Billups. Westbrook, Bledsoe, Evans, Holiday, DRose. He's got a little bit of all those players in his skillset but those are the best case scenarios. Stuckey would be a lower-end comparison but still within the range of where Smart might end up.

I'm unsure about Smart's bball IQ and actually think he'll make a better SG than PG but these strong, highly athletic guards with good handles that can get into the lane seem to work out far more often than not. If he gets some good coaching early in his career he's going to be very good.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#42 » by Golabki » Tue Apr 22, 2014 4:21 pm

ManualRam wrote:
Golabki wrote:
A_dub06 wrote:
I guess you have never seen josh smith play?
first, smart has the profile of a guard that will eventually become a solid shooter. He's likely to get there although you are right that it's not a guarantee.

Second, smith is another example of a guy where people overreact to his bad shots. Smith was a top 5 PF in the nba an best player on multiple playoff teams until a dumb team made him sf.

Third, when smith has been in good situations he's been able to control the shot selection issues. Smart taking a couple bad threes a game on a trash okst as a teenager is different situation than where I hope he'll be in two years.




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what is the indication that smart will eventually become a solid shooter? it's not technique, his improvement from 1 yr to the next or improvement in shot selection. his FT% doesn't indicate that the purity of his stroke is better than what his % from distance or even from 2 pt jumpers (31%) would say. he shoots a flat, hard ball with inconsistent mechanics, release point and he takes bad shots.
ok st was not a garbage team either so that doesn't excuse his shot selection.
almost all players significantly improve their shooting in the pros and guards that shoot >70% on FTs and make >1 3pt FG per game almost always turn into passable 3pt shooters in the NBA (at least).

If you think there's something specific in his shot that makes it unimprovable... Maybe you're right, but I'll trust the averages.

And no one is saying he's going to be a 3pt specialist at any level.


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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#43 » by ManualRam » Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:28 pm

Golabki wrote:
ManualRam wrote:what is the indication that smart will eventually become a solid shooter? it's not technique, his improvement from 1 yr to the next or improvement in shot selection. his FT% doesn't indicate that the purity of his stroke is better than what his % from distance or even from 2 pt jumpers (31%) would say. he shoots a flat, hard ball with inconsistent mechanics, release point and he takes bad shots.
ok st was not a garbage team either so that doesn't excuse his shot selection.
almost all players significantly improve their shooting in the pros and guards that shoot >70% on FTs and make >1 3pt FG per game almost always turn into passable 3pt shooters in the NBA (at least).

If you think there's something specific in his shot that makes it unimprovable... Maybe you're right, but I'll trust the averages.

And no one is saying he's going to be a 3pt specialist at any level.


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so he has the makings of a solid shooter because...everyone improves their shooting as a pro? are there any specific indicators relating to smart? low 70s ft shooting for a wing is not and if a player shoots as many 3's as smart did this past yr, i would hope he could average out to making 1 a game.
none of his %s indicate that he will be a solid shooter. i think its safe to assume he has a good work ethic, but what did that work ethic result in? he didn't improve as a shooter at all.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#44 » by rumdiary » Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:27 pm

I feel like Marcus Smart will end up with a career similar to OJ Mayo: A big name player on low-calibre teams, chucking up shots. His stock will hover just underneath All-Star level his entire career.

edit: I realize that sounds very negative, but actually it's pretty good!
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#45 » by Golabki » Wed Apr 23, 2014 3:05 am

ManualRam wrote:
Golabki wrote:
ManualRam wrote:what is the indication that smart will eventually become a solid shooter? it's not technique, his improvement from 1 yr to the next or improvement in shot selection. his FT% doesn't indicate that the purity of his stroke is better than what his % from distance or even from 2 pt jumpers (31%) would say. he shoots a flat, hard ball with inconsistent mechanics, release point and he takes bad shots.
ok st was not a garbage team either so that doesn't excuse his shot selection.
almost all players significantly improve their shooting in the pros and guards that shoot >70% on FTs and make >1 3pt FG per game almost always turn into passable 3pt shooters in the NBA (at least).

If you think there's something specific in his shot that makes it unimprovable... Maybe you're right, but I'll trust the averages.

And no one is saying he's going to be a 3pt specialist at any level.


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so he has the makings of a solid shooter because...everyone improves their shooting as a pro? are there any specific indicators relating to smart? low 70s ft shooting for a wing is not and if a player shoots as many 3's as smart did this past yr, i would hope he could average out to making 1 a game.
none of his %s indicate that he will be a solid shooter. i think its safe to assume he has a good work ethic, but what did that work ethic result in? he didn't improve as a shooter at all.

What I said is that players with the profile I mentioned almost always become viable 3pt shooters in the NBA. I'm not sure what's confusing about that... it's an empirical fact.

3PM is a better predictor than 3P%, which is why I cited that number. Year to year improvement in shooting percentage is a TERRIBLE predictor, which is why I ignored it.

Again, I'm not claiming Smart is a particularly good shooter, or that he ever will be be one. But he'll most likely be able to consistently hit open 3s in the NBA.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#46 » by Notanoob » Wed Apr 23, 2014 3:42 am

Golabki wrote:What I said is that players with the profile I mentioned almost always become viable 3pt shooters in the NBA. I'm not sure what's confusing about that... it's an empirical fact.

3PM is a better predictor than 3P%, which is why I cited that number. Year to year improvement in shooting percentage is a TERRIBLE predictor, which is why I ignored it.

Again, I'm not claiming Smart is a particularly good shooter, or that he ever will be be one. But he'll most likely be able to consistently hit open 3s in the NBA.
Really? Can you link us the study that shows that? I'd be curious to see that, and how strong the correlation is. I have a hard time seeing a guy who shot 29% for two straight seasons and high volume becoming a decent 3 point shooter. Do we have any examples of that? Off the top of my head Rodney Stuckey met that profile (over 70% FT%, at least one made 3 per game), but he's remained a terrible 3 point shooter his entire career, and he actually shot 37% from 3 his freshman year. Not that an exception proves the rule of course, but I don't know of an example that fits that off the top of my head.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#47 » by ManualRam » Wed Apr 23, 2014 4:35 am

Golabki wrote:
ManualRam wrote:
Golabki wrote:almost all players significantly improve their shooting in the pros and guards that shoot >70% on FTs and make >1 3pt FG per game almost always turn into passable 3pt shooters in the NBA (at least).

If you think there's something specific in his shot that makes it unimprovable... Maybe you're right, but I'll trust the averages.

And no one is saying he's going to be a 3pt specialist at any level.


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so he has the makings of a solid shooter because...everyone improves their shooting as a pro? are there any specific indicators relating to smart? low 70s ft shooting for a wing is not and if a player shoots as many 3's as smart did this past yr, i would hope he could average out to making 1 a game.
none of his %s indicate that he will be a solid shooter. i think its safe to assume he has a good work ethic, but what did that work ethic result in? he didn't improve as a shooter at all.

What I said is that players with the profile I mentioned almost always become viable 3pt shooters in the NBA. I'm not sure what's confusing about that... it's an empirical fact.

3PM is a better predictor than 3P%, which is why I cited that number. Year to year improvement in shooting percentage is a TERRIBLE predictor, which is why I ignored it.

Again, I'm not claiming Smart is a particularly good shooter, or that he ever will be be one. But he'll most


you realize how low of a barometer that is? >70% from the line for a WING being an indicator? 1 3pm a game, regardless of how many attempts it takes to make that 1 3pm? i could understand that 1 3pm/game having its own qualifier, but just 1 3pm per game, even if the shooter takes 5-6 shots to make that one? that is one of the worst catchall indicators i have ever seen. you realize just how many guards and wings fit that statistical profile?

and improvement from one year to the next is tangible. i don't know how you could spin seeing a prospect improve in areas of need from 1 yr to the next as being anything but a positive and an indicator that yes, the player has shown that he can put in the work and get better. its not enough for a player to have a great work ethic if there is no tangible improvement.

yes you did say that smart projects to be a solid shooter, based on nothing but a huge fishing net as an indicator. saying that "he'll most likely be able to consistently hit open 3s in the NBA" is basically saying that you project him to be a good shooter in more words.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#48 » by The_Hater » Wed Apr 23, 2014 4:49 am

Notanoob wrote:
Golabki wrote:What I said is that players with the profile I mentioned almost always become viable 3pt shooters in the NBA. I'm not sure what's confusing about that... it's an empirical fact.

3PM is a better predictor than 3P%, which is why I cited that number. Year to year improvement in shooting percentage is a TERRIBLE predictor, which is why I ignored it.

Again, I'm not claiming Smart is a particularly good shooter, or that he ever will be be one. But he'll most likely be able to consistently hit open 3s in the NBA.
Really? Can you link us the study that shows that? I'd be curious to see that, and how strong the correlation is. I have a hard time seeing a guy who shot 29% for two straight seasons and high volume becoming a decent 3 point shooter. Do we have any examples of that? Off the top of my head Rodney Stuckey met that profile (over 70% FT%, at least one made 3 per game), but he's remained a terrible 3 point shooter his entire career, and he actually shot 37% from 3 his freshman year. Not that an exception proves the rule of course, but I don't know of an example that fits that off the top of my head.


Stuckey definitely met the profile but Golabki isn't saying it's surefire indicator, only that most players that hit those benchmarks become decent shooters in time. It makes sense because there are tons of players I could name who improved their shooting quite a bit during their NBA careers and many of the NBA players who Smart has been compared too were poor outside/3 point shooters in college (Wade, Westbrook, Holiday, Rose, Stephenson).

Anyways I'd also like to see the full list of the names who fall under these parameters.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#49 » by Notanoob » Wed Apr 23, 2014 5:23 am

The_Hater wrote:Stuckey definitely met the profile but Golabki isn't saying it's surefire indicator, only that most players that hit those benchmarks become decent shooters in time. It makes sense because there are tons of players I could name who improved their shooting quite a bit during their NBA careers and many of the NBA players who Smart has been compared too were poor outside/3 point shooters in college (Wade, Westbrook, Holiday, Rose, Stephenson).

Anyways I'd also like to see the full list of the names who fall under these parameters.
Among those guys you listed, only Holiday is actually a good shooter. Wade is a career 29% 3 point shooter, Westbrook and Rose are around 30%, and Stephenson only managed a respectable 35% as a career high, which is still below league average I believe. He's a career 32% three point shooter. Unless the standards for being a shooter are a lot lower than I think they are, only Holiday is a good example, and had a small enough number of attempts in college that you couldn't really conclude anything decisively anyways.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#50 » by The_Hater » Wed Apr 23, 2014 12:34 pm

Notanoob wrote:
The_Hater wrote:Stuckey definitely met the profile but Golabki isn't saying it's surefire indicator, only that most players that hit those benchmarks become decent shooters in time. It makes sense because there are tons of players I could name who improved their shooting quite a bit during their NBA careers and many of the NBA players who Smart has been compared too were poor outside/3 point shooters in college (Wade, Westbrook, Holiday, Rose, Stephenson).

Anyways I'd also like to see the full list of the names who fall under these parameters.
Among those guys you listed, only Holiday is actually a good shooter. Wade is a career 29% 3 point shooter, Westbrook and Rose are around 30%, and Stephenson only managed a respectable 35% as a career high, which is still below league average I believe. He's a career 32% three point shooter. Unless the standards for being a shooter are a lot lower than I think they are, only Holiday is a good example, and had a small enough number of attempts in college that you couldn't really conclude anything decisively anyways.


Only Holiday is a good 3 point shooter but they're all good outside shooters, good enough to keep defenses honest and they're all all-star level players or better as a result.

I understand that's not the point that Golpbki was making with his post but I wasn't listing those players to support his point.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#51 » by bigboi » Wed Apr 23, 2014 2:42 pm

Marcus Smart= Iman Shumpert. That is all
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#52 » by Notanoob » Wed Apr 23, 2014 6:50 pm

The_Hater wrote:Only Holiday is a good 3 point shooter but they're all good outside shooters, good enough to keep defenses honest and they're all all-star level players or better as a result.

I understand that's not the point that Golpbki was making with his post but I wasn't listing those players to support his point.
I don't see how you can call guys who shoot 30% or less from 3 good outside shooters. It's a significant flaw in Wade's game in particular, since he can't take it easy on offense by just spotting up. All of those guys are all-star players because of their athleticism and slashing, shooting is a hole in their game that they haven't improved upon much at all.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#53 » by The_Hater » Wed Apr 23, 2014 7:01 pm

Notanoob wrote:
The_Hater wrote:Only Holiday is a good 3 point shooter but they're all good outside shooters, good enough to keep defenses honest and they're all all-star level players or better as a result.

I understand that's not the point that Golpbki was making with his post but I wasn't listing those players to support his point.
I don't see how you can call guys who shoot 30% or less from 3 good outside shooters. It's a significant flaw in Wade's game in particular, since he can't take it easy on offense by just spotting up. All of those guys are all-star players because of their athleticism and slashing, shooting is a hole in their game that they haven't improved upon much at all.


Come on, just because you're not a high percentage shooter from 24 feet doesn't mean you're not a good shooter from 14-22 feet. Yes 3-pointers are more valuable but they're all outside shots. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the best outside shooters in the league and he doesn't shoot 3's at all. DeMar DeRozan is another. He's deadeye from 20-22 feet but for some reason can't make 3's. Rip Hamilton made a career off the mid-range shot. And there's zero chance that Wade could have led the league in scoring if he couldn't shoot from the outside, it would make him far to easy to guard. He's a very solid shooter from mid-range.

You seem to want to put all players in one of 2 boxes, they can either shoot from outside or they can't and then if they can't shoot 3's at a decent rate they're automatically put in the 'can't shoot' gox. But the shot charts on ESPN show us that different players shoot well from different spots on the floor.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#54 » by E-Balla » Wed Apr 23, 2014 7:06 pm

Could be the Iguodala of PGs. He's as much of a defensive anomaly as Davis was but at the PG position. He's very Bledsoe I like that comp.

Like seriously watch him play defense and you'll understand why he's an easy top 5/6 pick.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#55 » by Notanoob » Wed Apr 23, 2014 7:20 pm

The_Hater wrote:
Notanoob wrote:
The_Hater wrote:Only Holiday is a good 3 point shooter but they're all good outside shooters, good enough to keep defenses honest and they're all all-star level players or better as a result.

I understand that's not the point that Golpbki was making with his post but I wasn't listing those players to support his point.
I don't see how you can call guys who shoot 30% or less from 3 good outside shooters. It's a significant flaw in Wade's game in particular, since he can't take it easy on offense by just spotting up. All of those guys are all-star players because of their athleticism and slashing, shooting is a hole in their game that they haven't improved upon much at all.


Come on, just because you're not a high percentage shooter from 24 feet doesn't mean you're not a good shooter from 14-22 feet. Yes 3-pointers are more valuable but they're all outside shots. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the best outside shooters in the league and he doesn't shoot 3's at all. DeMar DeRozan is another. He's deadeye from 20-22 feet but for some reason can't make 3's. Rip Hamilton made a career off the mid-range shot. And there's zero chance that Wade could have led the league in scoring if he couldn't shoot from the outside, it would make him far to easy to guard. He's a very solid shooter from mid-range.

You seem to want to put all players in one of 2 boxes, they can either shoot from outside or they can't and then if they can't shoot 3's at a decent rate they're automatically put in the 'can't shoot' gox. But the shot charts on ESPN show us that different players shoot well from different spots on the floor.
We're just going by different definitions. When I say "outside shot" I mean "3 point shot". If I meant mid range shot I would have called it that.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#56 » by Dr Positivity » Wed Apr 23, 2014 8:06 pm

Smart can improve his shooting but the same can be said about almost every prospect, even the ones already good at it. For example Klay Thompson became a draft steal bc his shooting made a leap in the league, even though he was already a great shooting prospect, we weren't predicting one of the best 3pt shooters of all time great at it

Likewise the "Smart becomes good at shooting" bump can be applied to other prospects in his range like Randle, Vonleh, Gordon, Exum, etc. and be as powerful
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#57 » by Johnlac1 » Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:14 pm

As a Bucks fan, I've had Smart in my sights all season long. Comparing him to current Buck pgs, he'd probably have been the best pg. Both Brandon Knight and Nate Wolters played a lot of point for the Bucks this season. Compared to Knight, Smart can't shoot as well and maybe not score as well. But he's got a better pg mentality. Knight is basically a shoot-first pg. Compared to Wolters, Smart is the better athlete, can get to the basket better, is as good a ballhandler/passer, and would be better defensively. Wolters only shot 29% from three point territory, but he will probably improve that. Nevertheless, Nate will most likely never be a big scorer. Wolters can be a decent Nash-like pg in the league, but he simply doesn't have the potential of Smart.

I see many fans develop a dislike for certain players and are unable to understand that many players can improve on their weaknesses. Why should Smart be different? With Smart at pg, along with Giannis, Henson, and Sanders, the Bucks could put four good-excellent def. players on the floor.

I also remember last year many people on this forum thought MCW would either be an average or subpar player. A few thought he couldn't play at all. So I'll take the Smart detractors with a grain of salt.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#58 » by HeartBreakKid » Wed Apr 23, 2014 10:03 pm

Johnlac1 wrote:As a Bucks fan, I've had Smart in my sights all season long. Comparing him to current Buck pgs, he'd probably have been the best pg. Both Brandon Knight and Nate Wolters played a lot of point for the Bucks this season. Compared to Knight, Smart can't shoot as well and maybe not score as well. But he's got a better pg mentality. Knight is basically a shoot-first pg. Compared to Wolters, Smart is the better athlete, can get to the basket better, is as good a ballhandler/passer, and would be better defensively. Wolters only shot 29% from three point territory, but he will probably improve that. Nevertheless, Nate will most likely never be a big scorer. Wolters can be a decent Nash-like pg in the league, but he simply doesn't have the potential of Smart.

I see many fans develop a dislike for certain players and are unable to understand that many players can improve on their weaknesses. Why should Smart be different? With Smart at pg, along with Giannis, Henson, and Sanders, the Bucks could put four good-excellent def. players on the floor.
Great athletes, but Smart/Giannis would potentially give serious spacing problems.

I also remember last year many people on this forum thought MCW would either be an average or subpar player. A few thought he couldn't play at all. So I'll take the Smart detractors with a grain of salt.



To be fair, MCW still seems like he could be an average or subpar player, getting ROY doesn't really change that since he was competing against subpar competition. I do agree that many thought MCW wouldn't be able to play at all, including myself.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#59 » by Ruzious » Wed Apr 23, 2014 10:10 pm

Johnlac1 wrote:As a Bucks fan, I've had Smart in my sights all season long. Comparing him to current Buck pgs, he'd probably have been the best pg. Both Brandon Knight and Nate Wolters played a lot of point for the Bucks this season. Compared to Knight, Smart can't shoot as well and maybe not score as well. But he's got a better pg mentality. Knight is basically a shoot-first pg. Compared to Wolters, Smart is the better athlete, can get to the basket better, is as good a ballhandler/passer, and would be better defensively. Wolters only shot 29% from three point territory, but he will probably improve that. Nevertheless, Nate will most likely never be a big scorer. Wolters can be a decent Nash-like pg in the league, but he simply doesn't have the potential of Smart.

I see many fans develop a dislike for certain players and are unable to understand that many players can improve on their weaknesses. Why should Smart be different? With Smart at pg, along with Giannis, Henson, and Sanders, the Bucks could put four good-excellent def. players on the floor.

I also remember last year many people on this forum thought MCW would either be an average or subpar player. A few thought he couldn't play at all. So I'll take the Smart detractors with a grain of salt.

If the Bucks go with Sanders, Henson, and Giannis as their frontcourt of the future, they really need guards who spread the floor with 3 point range, so I have doubts that Smart would be a smart choice for them. Knight and Wolters are good 3rd and 4th guards. They still need 2 starting guards, imo, but I'd still pick one of the frontcourt players if I were them - unless Exxum just impresses the heck out of them.
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Re: Marcus Smart comparisons 

Post#60 » by Dr Positivity » Wed Apr 23, 2014 10:39 pm

Johnlac1 wrote: I also remember last year many people on this forum thought MCW would either be an average or subpar player. A few thought he couldn't play at all. So I'll take the Smart detractors with a grain of salt.


I still think MCW will be an average or subpar player
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