Marvin Bagley

[clyde21]

Hard not to have this guy as the #1 prospect right now.

[Duke4life831]

Man I wouldn't blame Bagley if he just said deuces to Duke for the rest of the year and just worked out with Drew Hanlen or something. He plays in such a horrific Duke defensive scheme that it's only going to hurt his draft potential. No one can look like a good defender under K. It's pretty pathetic.

With that said, I thought Bagley had his worst defensive game even though he had his best night blocking shots. Offensively he can't be stopped in college.

Ingram, Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow looked pretty good defensively on Duke. Wendell Carter and Bagley are going to have issues defensively in the NBA. It’s really just lack of awareness and understanding how to defend. Both have potential defensively, but they’re so inconsistent. I can’t imagine the issues will be worked out the first year in the NBA. Then again, John Collins has the same issues and he’s doing better defensively.

Justise was a phenomenal defender at Duke, never have denied that. I've stated multiple times Justise was such a good defender that he is the reason Duke was able to play defense in February and March in 2015. Ingram was an average raw defender. I didn't think he looked bad but he didn't look great either. Tyus on the other hand was horrible on defense at Duke. The dude was very good at reading the passing Lane's but trying to guard the ball, he was a turn style, he couldn't keep anyone in front of him. His 2 biggest knocks coming out if college was his lack of size and bad defense. I am glad to see that he has been able to turn himself into a good defender.

Again with Bagley, I don't think he's been bad on defense. I think he's looked pretty solid for an 18 year old freshman. But he plays in such a horrible defensive system where no one knows what they're doing, it's hard to look good defensively and people start putting some of the blame on the prospect. Again it happened with Tatum, Tatum I thought played really good defense, but he was in such a horrific team defense, him being a bad defender just basically became a narrative. They would then point to Duke's horrible defensive rating then Tatum making a freshman mistake defensively and boom the narrative stuck. I think the exact same thing is happening with Bagley.

With that said, Im not saying Bagley has been a stud defender or is going to be contending for DPOYs in the NBA. I've actually been disappointed with his rim protection, I watched him plenty in high school and he had really good timing for blocking shots especially in the EYBL, but at Duke he looks like he's more focused on getting in position for the rebound than he is contesting the shot. But I think he moves his feet very well, has sold defensive IQ and plays with a ton of energy on that side. I think he's been an average defender at Duke and has potential to be a solid-good defender in the NBA.

[Derento]

His elite gravity at the rim & offensive rebounding are biggest strengths for him.
His quickness off the ground is up there for best I've ever seen.
The grab & go if he tightens his handle could be a strength but he was really turnover prone in HS so I would I'm bit bearish on this.

[doordoor123]

Man I wouldn't blame Bagley if he just said deuces to Duke for the rest of the year and just worked out with Drew Hanlen or something. He plays in such a horrific Duke defensive scheme that it's only going to hurt his draft potential. No one can look like a good defender under K. It's pretty pathetic.

With that said, I thought Bagley had his worst defensive game even though he had his best night blocking shots. Offensively he can't be stopped in college.

Ingram, Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow looked pretty good defensively on Duke. Wendell Carter and Bagley are going to have issues defensively in the NBA. It’s really just lack of awareness and understanding how to defend. Both have potential defensively, but they’re so inconsistent. I can’t imagine the issues will be worked out the first year in the NBA. Then again, John Collins has the same issues and he’s doing better defensively.

Justise was a phenomenal defender at Duke, never have denied that. I've stated multiple times Justise was such a good defender that he is the reason Duke was able to play defense in February and March in 2015. Ingram was an average raw defender. I didn't think he looked bad but he didn't look great either. Tyus on the other hand was horrible on defense at Duke. The dude was very good at reading the passing Lane's but trying to guard the ball, he was a turn style, he couldn't keep anyone in front of him. His 2 biggest knocks coming out if college was his lack of size and bad defense. I am glad to see that he has been able to turn himself into a good defender.

Again with Bagley, I don't think he's been bad on defense. I think he's looked pretty solid for an 18 year old freshman. But he plays in such a horrible defensive system where no one knows what they're doing, it's hard to look good defensively and people start putting some of the blame on the prospect. Again it happened with Tatum, Tatum I thought played really good defense, but he was in such a horrific team defense, him being a bad defender just basically became a narrative. They would then point to Duke's horrible defensive rating then Tatum making a freshman mistake defensively and boom the narrative stuck. I think the exact same thing is happening with Bagley.

With that said, Im not saying Bagley has been a stud defender or is going to be contending for DPOYs in the NBA. I've actually been disappointed with his rim protection, I watched him plenty in high school and he had really good timing for blocking shots especially in the EYBL, but at Duke he looks like he's more focused on getting in position for the rebound than he is contesting the shot. But I think he moves his feet very well, has sold defensive IQ and plays with a ton of energy on that side. I think he's been an average defender at Duke and has potential to be a solid-good defender in the NBA.

I get that and I feel similarly. As for Tyus Jones, didn’t he have really good metrics? I remember him having really good advanced stats for both offense and defense. Although most of us thought he wouldn’t be a good defender because of his limitations. Nowadays he’s a pretty good defender.

[Duke4life831]

Ingram, Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow looked pretty good defensively on Duke. Wendell Carter and Bagley are going to have issues defensively in the NBA. It’s really just lack of awareness and understanding how to defend. Both have potential defensively, but they’re so inconsistent. I can’t imagine the issues will be worked out the first year in the NBA. Then again, John Collins has the same issues and he’s doing better defensively.

Justise was a phenomenal defender at Duke, never have denied that. I've stated multiple times Justise was such a good defender that he is the reason Duke was able to play defense in February and March in 2015. Ingram was an average raw defender. I didn't think he looked bad but he didn't look great either. Tyus on the other hand was horrible on defense at Duke. The dude was very good at reading the passing Lane's but trying to guard the ball, he was a turn style, he couldn't keep anyone in front of him. His 2 biggest knocks coming out if college was his lack of size and bad defense. I am glad to see that he has been able to turn himself into a good defender.

Again with Bagley, I don't think he's been bad on defense. I think he's looked pretty solid for an 18 year old freshman. But he plays in such a horrible defensive system where no one knows what they're doing, it's hard to look good defensively and people start putting some of the blame on the prospect. Again it happened with Tatum, Tatum I thought played really good defense, but he was in such a horrific team defense, him being a bad defender just basically became a narrative. They would then point to Duke's horrible defensive rating then Tatum making a freshman mistake defensively and boom the narrative stuck. I think the exact same thing is happening with Bagley.

With that said, Im not saying Bagley has been a stud defender or is going to be contending for DPOYs in the NBA. I've actually been disappointed with his rim protection, I watched him plenty in high school and he had really good timing for blocking shots especially in the EYBL, but at Duke he looks like he's more focused on getting in position for the rebound than he is contesting the shot. But I think he moves his feet very well, has sold defensive IQ and plays with a ton of energy on that side. I think he's been an average defender at Duke and has potential to be a solid-good defender in the NBA.

I get that and I feel similarly. As for Tyus Jones, didn’t he have really good metrics? I remember him having really good advanced stats for both offense and defense. Although most of us thought he wouldn’t be a good defender because of his limitations. Nowadays he’s a pretty good defender.

He might have but thats probably more to do with how good the team's defense was playing and how the defense ended up rating by the end of the year. I do know Okafor was the 2nd highest rated defender on that team (DWS, DBPM, DRtg), so you gotta take it with a grain of salt. If I were to rate defensive impact for that season I actually probably would say Tyus was the worst defender on the team that was getting legit minutes, its between him and Okafor. He was a major issue with our defense because he really struggled to keep anyone in front of him, it was pretty frustrating to watch. Loved the kid at Duke, unbelievably clutch and one of my favorite OADs to come through Duke, but very frustrating on the defensive end. Again I am happy to see that he has become a good defender in the NBA, no doubt he had the defensive IQ, just had to figure a way to keep himself in front of people and it appears he has (he also looks much stronger and thicker than he was at Duke).

Back to Bagley and this team. Wendell Carter is ranked ahead of Bagley defensively in basically every category. Im a massive Carter fan, but he has been horrific defensively the last 10 games or so. If you drive right at him, he will block the shot. But hes not going to rotate and help out or anything like that, the dude has been unbelievably lazy on the defensive end and actually has been benched a few times because of it. Bagley to me rotates the best out of the starters (Javin easily the best defender on the team) but again I think hes more focused on getting the rebound than contesting the shot. The last game I thought was his worst game rotating, but his best game trying to contest shots (also was his worst rebounding game in awhile).

[Duke4life831]

His elite gravity at the rim & offensive rebounding are biggest strengths for him.
His quickness off the ground is up there for best I've ever seen.
The grab & go if he tightens his handle could be a strength but he was really turnover prone in HS so I would I'm bit bearish on this.

Agreed with all of this. I think last game was his first real flash of his grab and go potential. Yes it was off a steal, but he still showed how fast he can be in a 3/4 court sprint with the ball. That was the first play I can recall where him taking the ball himself full court led to anything. He has the potential, but I wouldnt be banking on that part of his game. Its like Bamba's jumper to me. You see the potential, but Im not banking on Bamba being a 3pt shooter. If it happens and it will definitely add another element to his game, just dont bank on it happening.

[nolang1]

Ingram, Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow looked pretty good defensively on Duke. Wendell Carter and Bagley are going to have issues defensively in the NBA. It’s really just lack of awareness and understanding how to defend. Both have potential defensively, but they’re so inconsistent. I can’t imagine the issues will be worked out the first year in the NBA. Then again, John Collins has the same issues and he’s doing better defensively.

Justise was a phenomenal defender at Duke, never have denied that. I've stated multiple times Justise was such a good defender that he is the reason Duke was able to play defense in February and March in 2015. Ingram was an average raw defender. I didn't think he looked bad but he didn't look great either. Tyus on the other hand was horrible on defense at Duke. The dude was very good at reading the passing Lane's but trying to guard the ball, he was a turn style, he couldn't keep anyone in front of him. His 2 biggest knocks coming out if college was his lack of size and bad defense. I am glad to see that he has been able to turn himself into a good defender.

Again with Bagley, I don't think he's been bad on defense. I think he's looked pretty solid for an 18 year old freshman. But he plays in such a horrible defensive system where no one knows what they're doing, it's hard to look good defensively and people start putting some of the blame on the prospect. Again it happened with Tatum, Tatum I thought played really good defense, but he was in such a horrific team defense, him being a bad defender just basically became a narrative. They would then point to Duke's horrible defensive rating then Tatum making a freshman mistake defensively and boom the narrative stuck. I think the exact same thing is happening with Bagley.

With that said, Im not saying Bagley has been a stud defender or is going to be contending for DPOYs in the NBA. I've actually been disappointed with his rim protection, I watched him plenty in high school and he had really good timing for blocking shots especially in the EYBL, but at Duke he looks like he's more focused on getting in position for the rebound than he is contesting the shot. But I think he moves his feet very well, has sold defensive IQ and plays with a ton of energy on that side. I think he's been an average defender at Duke and has potential to be a solid-good defender in the NBA.

I get that and I feel similarly. As for Tyus Jones, didn’t he have really good metrics? I remember him having really good advanced stats for both offense and defense. Although most of us thought he wouldn’t be a good defender because of his limitations. Nowadays he’s a pretty good defender.

Jones had more steals than personal fouls in college, which is a very good indicator defensively.

Rather than getting the rebound, I'd say Bagley is more worried about not getting taken out of the game by a bad call since he's too valuable offensively and Duke's defense would really be awful if he wasn't out there. As far as fouls go, here are how Bagley's fouls per 40 minutes ranks among recent high-lottery (or projected high-lottery) freshman bigs:

Bagley: 2.4
Davis: 2.4
Ayton: 2.8
Okafor: 2.8
Noel: 3.2
Favors: 3.8
Bamba: 4.0
Towns: 5.6
Embiid: 5.8
Cousins: 5.8
Jackson: 6.0

So to me the main thing is him just needing to learn how much physicality he can get away with defensively. Because on one hand, it'd be easy to see him getting somewhere around 3 blocks per 40 minutes if he were willing to double his foul rate to do so, but on the other Duke would already have lost another 4 games this season if Bagley hadn't been available to go 38+ minutes in each of them.

[Duke4life831]

Justise was a phenomenal defender at Duke, never have denied that. I've stated multiple times Justise was such a good defender that he is the reason Duke was able to play defense in February and March in 2015. Ingram was an average raw defender. I didn't think he looked bad but he didn't look great either. Tyus on the other hand was horrible on defense at Duke. The dude was very good at reading the passing Lane's but trying to guard the ball, he was a turn style, he couldn't keep anyone in front of him. His 2 biggest knocks coming out if college was his lack of size and bad defense. I am glad to see that he has been able to turn himself into a good defender.

Again with Bagley, I don't think he's been bad on defense. I think he's looked pretty solid for an 18 year old freshman. But he plays in such a horrible defensive system where no one knows what they're doing, it's hard to look good defensively and people start putting some of the blame on the prospect. Again it happened with Tatum, Tatum I thought played really good defense, but he was in such a horrific team defense, him being a bad defender just basically became a narrative. They would then point to Duke's horrible defensive rating then Tatum making a freshman mistake defensively and boom the narrative stuck. I think the exact same thing is happening with Bagley.

With that said, Im not saying Bagley has been a stud defender or is going to be contending for DPOYs in the NBA. I've actually been disappointed with his rim protection, I watched him plenty in high school and he had really good timing for blocking shots especially in the EYBL, but at Duke he looks like he's more focused on getting in position for the rebound than he is contesting the shot. But I think he moves his feet very well, has sold defensive IQ and plays with a ton of energy on that side. I think he's been an average defender at Duke and has potential to be a solid-good defender in the NBA.

I get that and I feel similarly. As for Tyus Jones, didn’t he have really good metrics? I remember him having really good advanced stats for both offense and defense. Although most of us thought he wouldn’t be a good defender because of his limitations. Nowadays he’s a pretty good defender.

Jones had more steals than personal fouls in college, which is a very good indicator defensively.

Rather than getting the rebound, I'd say Bagley is more worried about not getting taken out of the game by a bad call since he's too valuable offensively and Duke's defense would really be awful if he wasn't out there. As far as fouls go, here are how Bagley's fouls per 40 minutes ranks among recent high-lottery (or projected high-lottery) freshman bigs:

Bagley: 2.4
Davis: 2.4
Ayton: 2.8
Okafor: 2.8
Noel: 3.2
Favors: 3.8
Bamba: 4.0
Towns: 5.6
Embiid: 5.8
Cousins: 5.8
Jackson: 6.0

So to me the main thing is him just needing to learn how much physicality he can get away with defensively. Because on one hand, it'd be easy to see him getting somewhere around 3 blocks per 40 minutes if he were willing to double his foul rate to do so, but on the other Duke would already have lost another 4 games this season if Bagley hadn't been available to go 38+ minutes in each of them.

Jones was very good playing the passing lane defensively, which I said. Steals has no indication if youre good at keeping your man in front of you or not, it just usually shows how often a player gambles. Tyus gambled a lot because he would get beat constantly.

When it comes to Bagley I agree, I think that could be another reason he doesnt go for shots, it wouldnt be the first time K has told a big to not contend shots. That is still a bad habit to put on for a young player.

[HeadtopChunes]

Is Bagley a center at the next level? Or a PF?

His poor rim protection numbers would make me wary of hit at center. Maybe a PF next to stretch 5?

[nolang1]

Is Bagley a center at the next level? Or a PF?

His poor rim protection numbers would make me wary of hit at center. Maybe a PF next to stretch 5?

He is a PF who can play center when teams go small. The average PF in the league these days is like Thad Young or Marvin Williams, so I don’t see how Bagley wouldn’t be quick enough to guard players like that.

edit: as for playing him with a floor spacing 5, literally every player looks better when playing alongside more shooting and half of the centers in the league are already shooting threes. Even if you somehow think Bagley is going to be the reverse Cousins/Davis/Embiid/Griffin/etc. where he's a nonshooter in the NBA after actually taking and making threes in college, the worst-case scenario of playing him next to a traditional big would make his team the best offensive rebounding team in the league without sacrificing much in the way of mobility from the power forward position.

[HeadtopChunes]

Is Bagley a center at the next level? Or a PF?

His poor rim protection numbers would make me wary of hit at center. Maybe a PF next to stretch 5?

He is a PF who can play center when teams go small. The average PF in the league these days is like Thad Young or Marvin Williams, so I don’t see how Bagley wouldn’t be quick enough to guard players like that.

I like Bagleys perimeter defense actually. If/when Bagley gets stronger he should be able to switch 2-5 reliably.

His PF concerns are just based on he seems to prefer to score in the post and doesnt really show the playmaking to handle the ball all the time or a reliable enough shot to stretch the defense. So the offensive fit is a bit muddled.

[doordoor123]

Hard for me to figure out where he should go. Screams borderline all-star type to me. Not an actual all-star type.
Someone like Jabari Parker, Khris Middleton, Derrick Favors are those type of players. But someone like Jabari Parker has more upside than that. I don’t see the same upside in Bagley than in Parker.
Yes, he can do some things really well, like his offensive rebounding, but In the NBA that isn’t a skill that makes one an all-star. I’m particularly not fond of his lack of hip flexibility. I see his max upside as someone similar to Draymond Green (not saying he’s anything similar to Draymond, I just mean his effect in games), if he even reaches that. And I personally don’t think Green would be an all-star type without being on such a great team.

[Upperclass]

Bagley to me is Shawn Marion .. with a potentially better J. Between him and Ayton its the classic Big or less big decisions. I'd take Bagley over anyone else in this draft #1. Ayton has some Andrew Bynum in him

[Mulhollanddrive]

If Harry Giles didn't get injured and played left handed.

[akhan786]

Does anyone else kind of see the PF version of Andrew Wiggins? That's not necessarily a bad thing, but I could see his overall cap of impact hovering around where Wiggins is now. What has/had let both of them standout as HS/College prospects is their elite second jump could cover up a lot of mistakes. But at 6'11 maybe that second jump in Bagley can provide more value.

I'd still love to have that on my Celtics if our Lakers pick converts.

[Duke4life831]

Does anyone else kind of see the PF version of Andrew Wiggins? That's not necessarily a bad thing, but I could see his overall cap of impact hovering around where Wiggins is now. What has/had let both of them standout as HS/College prospects is their elite second jump covered up a lot of mistakes. But at 6'11 maybe that second jump in Bagley can provide more value.

I'd still love to have that on my Celtics if our Lakers pick converts.

One massive difference between Bagley and Wiggins. Motor. If Wiggins had the motor Bagley had he would be one hell of a young player. But Wiggins just disappears way too often and seems like the type of player that needs to get a fire lit under him at all times.

Bagley on the other hand is the type of guy that you need to tell to calm down because hes diving out of bounce to save a lose ball in an all star game. His motor is on the elite of the elite level, that alone separates him as a prospect in my opinion. You add that motor to him being 6'11 and a crazy athlete, you know on the minimum youre going to feel his impact game to game and all game long just from him making hustle plays and rebounding.

[Duke4life831]

In my opinion Bagley just had his best game this morning. While yes not the greatest opposition, it's the plays that he made that were very promising. For the majority of the season when he would grab a rebound and push it himself, it wouldn't lead to anything. Last game he had a one man fast break and today he had several. He was very active defensively with 4 stls and 3 blocks (his rim protection looks much better when he plays the 5), no free rebounds today either, everyone on Duke was rebounding so the 11 he grabbed today took some effort.

I just think overall this was his most dynamic game of the year. Too bad they fouled him after he got that mean block and was taking it back full court himself, that would've been an amazing highlight.

[King Ken]

Does anyone else kind of see the PF version of Andrew Wiggins? That's not necessarily a bad thing, but I could see his overall cap of impact hovering around where Wiggins is now. What has/had let both of them standout as HS/College prospects is their elite second jump covered up a lot of mistakes. But at 6'11 maybe that second jump in Bagley can provide more value.

I'd still love to have that on my Celtics if our Lakers pick converts.

One massive difference between Bagley and Wiggins. Motor. If Wiggins had the motor Bagley had he would be one hell of a young player. But Wiggins just disappears way too often and seems like the type of player that needs to get a fire lit under him at all times.

Bagley on the other hand is the type of guy that you need to tell to calm down because hes diving out of bounce to save a lose ball in an all star game. His motor is on the elite of the elite level, that alone separates him as a prospect in my opinion. You add that motor to him being 6'11 and a crazy athlete, you know on the minimum youre going to feel his impact game to game and all game long just from him making hustle plays and rebounding.

That difference is massive in terms of impact. Wiggins is always a player you just wish could do more with his impressive tools, Bagley does all he can do with it and just keeps getting better.

I think Bag's could be an All Star as a rookie but I am like everyone else, I don't know what his potential is. He might not become a top 5 NBA player. But I do think he can be top 20-40 as a rookie. He's that good.

[B-Ball Freak]

Bagley perfect for Boston, him and Dennis Smith would make an explosive pair too.

[Duke4life831]

Does anyone else kind of see the PF version of Andrew Wiggins? That's not necessarily a bad thing, but I could see his overall cap of impact hovering around where Wiggins is now. What has/had let both of them standout as HS/College prospects is their elite second jump covered up a lot of mistakes. But at 6'11 maybe that second jump in Bagley can provide more value.

I'd still love to have that on my Celtics if our Lakers pick converts.

One massive difference between Bagley and Wiggins. Motor. If Wiggins had the motor Bagley had he would be one hell of a young player. But Wiggins just disappears way too often and seems like the type of player that needs to get a fire lit under him at all times.

Bagley on the other hand is the type of guy that you need to tell to calm down because hes diving out of bounce to save a lose ball in an all star game. His motor is on the elite of the elite level, that alone separates him as a prospect in my opinion. You add that motor to him being 6'11 and a crazy athlete, you know on the minimum youre going to feel his impact game to game and all game long just from him making hustle plays and rebounding.

That difference is massive in terms of impact. Wiggins is always a player you just wish could do more with his impressive tools, Bagley does all he can do with it and just keeps getting better.

I think Bag's could be an All Star as a rookie but I am like everyone else, I don't know what his potential is. He might not become a top 5 NBA player. But I do think he can be top 20-40 as a rookie. He's that good.

I think his potential really depends on how he progresses with his handle. I have tremendous faith in his jumper, I think it is really solid already and I think by the time he's 24-26 it's going to be pretty good. I think he has good touch and really good form on it. The handle is going to be the difference though. If he can get to the point where he can be a consistent threat off the dribble from the perimeter, he has scary high potential. But that's a big if right now. Right now I have him at having a chance to be a slightly better Chris Bosh, if he really improved his handle, who knows.