Kris Dunn

[Nebula1]

Yeah, John Wall is his best comparison or even Rose, although not quite on those levels.

Dunn is likely to be the best point guard in this draft and if he puts in the work, he'll be a force in the NBA.

[Lazy10]

Yeah, John Wall is his best comparison or even Rose, although not quite on those levels.

Dunn is likely to be the best point guard in this draft and if he puts in the work, he'll be a force in the NBA.

He cant shoot and his playmaking is overrated. He'll be okay PG in the NBA but never in top 5-7

[doordoor123]

Yeah, John Wall is his best comparison or even Rose, although not quite on those levels.

Dunn is likely to be the best point guard in this draft and if he puts in the work, he'll be a force in the NBA.

He cant shoot and his playmaking is overrated. He'll be okay PG in the NBA but never in top 5-7

I kind of agree. I don't see him as a superstar in his career, but a solid starter. He's already 21 (starting to pay attention to age more after reading an article on it) and I don't think he's ever going to be better than an okay shooter. He'll be a great defender that is an okay playmaker and a streaky scorer. Pretty much what Marcus Smart is. I think he'll be more Marcus Smart than Elfrid Payton or Michael Carter-Williams. But if you were to throw those three together and take out Payton's playmaking ability, that might be it.

[immortalone23]

Yeah, John Wall is his best comparison or even Rose, although not quite on those levels.

Dunn is likely to be the best point guard in this draft and if he puts in the work, he'll be a force in the NBA.

He cant shoot and his playmaking is overrated. He'll be okay PG in the NBA but never in top 5-7

I kind of agree. I don't see him as a superstar in his career, but a solid starter. He's already 21 (starting to pay attention to age more after reading an article on it) and I don't think he's ever going to be better than an okay shooter. He'll be a great defender that is an okay playmaker and a streaky scorer. Pretty much what Marcus Smart is. I think he'll be more Marcus Smart than Elfrid Payton or Michael Carter-Williams. But if you were to throw those three together and take out Payton's playmaking ability, that might be it.

Can you link the article?

[Rockmaninoff]

^ It's going to tell you that players that enter the NBA at younger ages typically reach higher levels of performance and have better careers. This is likely due to earlier access to NBA level training, facilities, and competition during important formative years.

[doordoor123]

He cant shoot and his playmaking is overrated. He'll be okay PG in the NBA but never in top 5-7

I kind of agree. I don't see him as a superstar in his career, but a solid starter. He's already 21 (starting to pay attention to age more after reading an article on it) and I don't think he's ever going to be better than an okay shooter. He'll be a great defender that is an okay playmaker and a streaky scorer. Pretty much what Marcus Smart is. I think he'll be more Marcus Smart than Elfrid Payton or Michael Carter-Williams. But if you were to throw those three together and take out Payton's playmaking ability, that might be it.

Can you link the article?

Yeah, I'll look for it tomorrow. I can't remember exactly where I read it because I read a lot, but I really liked it. It was talking about how age affects a player's probability of being a star and how being older makes a player less likely to get better. It also talked about young players having the biggest chance to succeed. I think one of the stats was 1/5 18-20 year olds that get drafted become stars. I'll look for it.

I'm actually compiling a list using ages (with the age "star" formula) and height/wingspan to see who has the best chance. I found out the average height/wingspan, bottom-end as well as elite and compared them to drafted players. It's going to take some time to finish though. We're getting closer to draft time so I'm doing more hardcore research and evaluations.

[No-Man]

Comparing Dunn with Smart is just lazy

[HotelVitale]

I kind of agree. I don't see him as a superstar in his career, but a solid starter. He's already 21 (starting to pay attention to age more after reading an article on it) and I don't think he's ever going to be better than an okay shooter. He'll be a great defender that is an okay playmaker and a streaky scorer. Pretty much what Marcus Smart is. I think he'll be more Marcus Smart than Elfrid Payton or Michael Carter-Williams. But if you were to throw those three together and take out Payton's playmaking ability, that might be it.

The part in bold doesn't seem too bad but Marcus Smart isn't near as quick as Dunn and he's one of the league's worst shooters relative to volume. And Smart is stronger and a more tenacious defender, easily. Dunn should be able to penetrate and dish at a higher level from day one, and he's just a different type of player--quick and smooth, rather than big and powerful.

Also curious why you project MCW as a better playmaker than Dunn; Dunn's more skilled as a playmaker, has better NCAA stats, and MCW hasn't been very productive as a passer in the NBA. Is it just looking at his stats? (Remember that CP3, about as poor a point as oyu can have, only averaged about 6 assists per game both his years in college) (EDIT: Dunn's actually got significantly better assist% #s than MCW did in college too).

[No-Man]

Dunn assist% blows all those guys

[doordoor123]

Dunn assist% blows all those guys

Dunn is a drive and dish kind of player with a scorer's mentality a la Derrick Rose rather than say Mike Conley who looks for passes before shots. Rose isn't a bad playmaker, but for a starter it's subpar. I think it'll be similar.

[doordoor123]

Comparing Dunn with Smart is just lazy

In terms of production I disagree. Your post is "just lazy" for a blatant statement with no defense.

[gipper08]

^ It's going to tell you that players that enter the NBA at younger ages typically reach higher levels of performance and have better careers. This is likely due to earlier access to NBA level training, facilities, and competition during important formative years.

I think we are in a new era where we should focus on the late bloomer.

In today's culture I will take the Butlers, Greens, and Leonards over the Walls,Irvings, Wiggins, Simmons, etc.

Too much success early will be a detriment going forward. Too spoiled, too lazy to rich for too long.

[FreakMaster]

I think Dunn is a great prospect, but I also think he's going to fall on draft night. If not, I see a team trading up for him. The issue is that there are so many point guards in the league and one that isn't a great shooter right now won't help a team trying to improve. The right fit for him is a young rebuilding team, but I think most young rebuilding teams have their point guards. I think the Nuggets are a possible destination for him, but I don't think they want him. The Nuggets want to get back to the playoffs as soon as possible with Gallinari and Dunn would only delay them. The trade I would like is the Bulls to trade Rose, Gibson and Dunleavy to the Kings for Dunn and Cauley-Stein. Just make it a full rebuild.

Bulls fan? Why would sac do that?

Because Sacramento wants to compete right now. If they want to, we have the pieces to trade. We can even probably trade Snell and our first this year. Hell, we could probably also give up Mirotic. Bulls have a lot of tradable pieces and Kings want to win right away. Bulls are one foot in a rebuild and one foot out. I just think its time to make a choice and do one or the other without somehow getting rid of Butler.

That's a lot to ask for Dunn and Cauley Stein. I like Dunn's game a lot but I don't see him dropping below #5 in the draft. Sac-Town might not be able to draft him anyways.

If Sacramento wanted to win so bad they would've put up a better showing this yr. All of that talent and their win loss record screams hopes for the top draft pick this summer. No that team doesn't want to win. If that team wanted to win, The Bulls would have their draft pick for the Luol Deng trade. That team was playing to lose towards the end of the year, so they could keep their lottery pick.

[HotelVitale]

Dunn assist% blows all those guys

Dunn is a drive and dish kind of player with a scorer's mentality a la Derrick Rose rather than say Mike Conley who looks for passes before shots. Rose isn't a bad playmaker, but for a starter it's subpar. I think it'll be similar.

I'd have to guess you didn't see much of Providence this year if you're saying that. Dunn was most definitely not a score-first point guard; he did a lot of two-dribble-shake moves at the end of the shot clock and he can get his own shot (thought not always high % ones) but he was mostly a point guard within a pretty structured offense and he also has very good playmaking skills. Good vision, anticipation, etc, all the tools necessary to be a pass-first NBA PG (though I don't know if he'll every be stand out in that department).

I'm not trying to defend him or anything, and I'm not a super Dunn fan; just happened to see a lot of him since Big East is on TV all the time in Philly, and the descriptions you're giving aren't accurate.

[doordoor123]

Dunn assist% blows all those guys

Dunn is a drive and dish kind of player with a scorer's mentality a la Derrick Rose rather than say Mike Conley who looks for passes before shots. Rose isn't a bad playmaker, but for a starter it's subpar. I think it'll be similar.

I'd have to guess you didn't see much of Providence this year if you're saying that. Dunn was most definitely not a score-first point guard; he did a lot of two-dribble-shake moves at the end of the shot clock and he can get his own shot (thought not always high % ones) but he was mostly a point guard within a pretty structured offense and he also has very good playmaking skills. Good vision, anticipation, etc, all the tools necessary to be a pass-first NBA PG (though I don't know if he'll every be stand out in that department).

I'm not trying to defend him or anything, and I'm not a super Dunn fan; just happened to see a lot of him since Big East is on TV all the time in Philly, and the descriptions you're giving aren't accurate.

I saw a good amount of him. Not saying he's a score first point guard, but it's his mentality. He gets in the lane and dishes. Not saying he isn't a good passer, but I rarely saw him run set plays. Providence didn't really use the entire shot clock and when they did, yes, he was use that dribble jumper. He's a P&R pg that can use his length to break plays and get a guy open every now and then, but those aren't set plays as far as I could tell. If those were set plays, they were terrible plays.

[saintEscaton]

Dunn is at his best when he's given the freedom to improvize on the fly, but will also commit careless TOs when he's trying to razzle dazzle and force the issue rather than take what the D gives him

[HotelVitale]

Dunn is a drive and dish kind of player with a scorer's mentality a la Derrick Rose rather than say Mike Conley who looks for passes before shots. Rose isn't a bad playmaker, but for a starter it's subpar. I think it'll be similar.

I'd have to guess you didn't see much of Providence this year if you're saying that. Dunn was most definitely not a score-first point guard; he did a lot of two-dribble-shake moves at the end of the shot clock and he can get his own shot (thought not always high % ones) but he was mostly a point guard within a pretty structured offense and he also has very good playmaking skills. Good vision, anticipation, etc, all the tools necessary to be a pass-first NBA PG (though I don't know if he'll every be stand out in that department). I'm not trying to defend him or anything, and I'm not a super Dunn fan; just happened to see a lot of him since Big East is on TV all the time in Philly, and the descriptions you're giving aren't accurate.

I saw a good amount of him. Not saying he's a score first point guard, but it's his mentality. He gets in the lane and dishes. Not saying he isn't a good passer, but I rarely saw him run set plays. Providence didn't really use the entire shot clock and when they did, yes, he was use that dribble jumper. He's a P&R pg that can use his length to break plays and get a guy open every now and then, but those aren't set plays as far as I could tell. If those were set plays, they were terrible plays.

Not sure what you mean by 'set plays'; Providence like most college teams ran a fairly disciplined offense that spread the ball around quickly, and Dunn didn't often have the green light to just make something happen.

He also had a 50% assist percentage last year, and a 42% this year (despite splitting ball-handling/shot-creating duties with a couple guys). Those were 1st and 3rd in the entire NCAA, for reference. I'm not sure there's ever been a scoring PG that had numbers like that, and most scoring PGs are at like 25-30% (e.g. Kyrie was at 28%, despite averaging 4.5 assists per game).

[doordoor123]

I'd have to guess you didn't see much of Providence this year if you're saying that. Dunn was most definitely not a score-first point guard; he did a lot of two-dribble-shake moves at the end of the shot clock and he can get his own shot (thought not always high % ones) but he was mostly a point guard within a pretty structured offense and he also has very good playmaking skills. Good vision, anticipation, etc, all the tools necessary to be a pass-first NBA PG (though I don't know if he'll every be stand out in that department). I'm not trying to defend him or anything, and I'm not a super Dunn fan; just happened to see a lot of him since Big East is on TV all the time in Philly, and the descriptions you're giving aren't accurate.

I saw a good amount of him. Not saying he's a score first point guard, but it's his mentality. He gets in the lane and dishes. Not saying he isn't a good passer, but I rarely saw him run set plays. Providence didn't really use the entire shot clock and when they did, yes, he was use that dribble jumper. He's a P&R pg that can use his length to break plays and get a guy open every now and then, but those aren't set plays as far as I could tell. If those were set plays, they were terrible plays.

Not sure what you mean by 'set plays'; Providence like most college teams ran a fairly disciplined offense that spread the ball around quickly, and Dunn didn't often have the green light to just make something happen.

He also had a 50% assist percentage last year, and a 42% this year (despite splitting ball-handling/shot-creating duties with a couple guys). Those were 1st and 3rd in the entire NCAA, for reference. I'm not sure there's ever been a scoring PG that had numbers like that, and most scoring PGs are at like 25-30% (e.g. Kyrie was at 28%, despite averaging 4.5 assists per game).

Let me be a pessimist. This is the time of the year I doubt every prospect.

[Gomes3PC]

Dunn assist% blows all those guys

Dunn is a drive and dish kind of player with a scorer's mentality a la Derrick Rose rather than say Mike Conley who looks for passes before shots. Rose isn't a bad playmaker, but for a starter it's subpar. I think it'll be similar.

PGs who have a drive-first mentality are not a bad thing, and frankly are becoming the common role in the NBA. Also, Dunn does not have subpar vision. He played this year with a bunch of guys who couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat (outside Bentil). He was forced to be more of a scorer, but still ended up with an assist rate that was in line with CP3. He is closer to a poor man's Westbrook (whose vision is way underrated) than a guy like Rose.

The comparison to Smart is just not apt, because Dunn has a first step that Smart simply doesn't have. Smart just physically overpowered college players. Dunn has a dunk highlight reel better than anyone in this draft and got to the rim at will even against a team like UNC with NBA-sized bigs. Also, he's a completely different kind of defender than Smart. Smart is an elite, versatile on-ball defender who can guard anyone from Jeff Teague to Paul Millsap. Dunn is not going to be that kind of guy. He's a lock-down on-ball defender for PGs and will probably be able to defend some SGs, but his biggest value will be forcing live-ball turnovers in passing lanes, denying passes with his length, etc. More like an Avery Bradley type of defender.

Dunn is not a great shooter but he's better than Smart and he's certainly lightyears better than Payton / MCW / Rondo. He had one of the lowest assisted FG rates in the country last year (ie, he took basically no catch and shoot jump shots). He doesn't have bad form at the line or from 3, and the numbers back that up, but it's just really inconsistent. When he hits shots from outside, it is really pretty, but then the next time down he could get his footwork all F'ed up and clang one badly. There's no guarantee he cleans that up, but he hit a relatively high volume of 3s the last two years at a respectable rate, much higher than Smart, MCW or Payton. All those guys were sub-30% shooters from deep - Dunn shot 37% this year and 35% for his college career. And basically every one of his 3s came from the hardest spots - top of the key and on the wings. Because of the high post P&R action PC ran with him, he was basically never taking corner 3s, so comparing him to a guy like Ingram or Hield who got a boatload of them is a little unfair (though those two are legitimately better shooters regardless, just to be clear).

Dunn is a good prospect. He has a good but not NBA elite first step. He has PG vision albeit not at CP3 / Conley level. He is a good defender but not a dominant defender (though that may improve as he doesn't have to carry the same offensive burden in the NBA as he did in college). His jumper is good enough that guys will at least need to be aware of him behind the line. He is a FANTASTIC rebounder at the point, which is something people undervalue from guards but is IMO a secretly really important piece of a lot of elite guards' games.

21 is really not that old, FWIW. Most of the dominant guards draft in the last 10 years were not one-and-done guys. Wall, Kyrie (who I think is wildly overrated, esp. as a true PG) and Rose were exceptions. Guys like Curry, CP3, D-Will, Westbrook, Rondo, Wade, Lillard, Kemba, were all 2-4 year players in college. PGs take time to groom and its the hardest position to learn in the NBA, so the extra seasoning in college is IMO not a bad thing for that position. I'd always prefer a younger guy with the same attributes otherwise, but in Dunn's case I don't see it as any sort of red flag.

[No-Man]

I would like Dunn more in a combo-guard role because of his TOs issues, that are normally something that dont really improve at the next level, on the other hand Wall is a franchise player at PG and has those, so...

Anyway, I think he could go anywhere from a complimentary PG/SG type, alla George Hill, Cory Joseph, to a franchise type PG.
The Kings look like the best option for him.