Kris Dunn

[HotelVitale]

I saw a good amount of him. Not saying he's a score first point guard, but it's his mentality. He gets in the lane and dishes. Not saying he isn't a good passer, but I rarely saw him run set plays. Providence didn't really use the entire shot clock and when they did, yes, he was use that dribble jumper. He's a P&R pg that can use his length to break plays and get a guy open every now and then, but those aren't set plays as far as I could tell. If those were set plays, they were terrible plays.

Not sure what you mean by 'set plays'; Providence like most college teams ran a fairly disciplined offense that spread the ball around quickly, and Dunn didn't often have the green light to just make something happen. He also had a 50% assist percentage last year, and a 42% this year (despite splitting ball-handling/shot-creating duties with a couple guys). Those were 1st and 3rd in the entire NCAA, for reference. I'm not sure there's ever been a scoring PG that had numbers like that, and most scoring PGs are at like 25-30% (e.g. Kyrie was at 28%, despite averaging 4.5 assists per game).

Let me be a pessimist. This is the time of the year I doubt every prospect.

I definitely don't want to take that from you! I'm sort of skeptical of Dunn as a lead NBA PG, though he has legit PG skills, a decent shot, and a good attacking game. I always get the impression that he should be better than he is, and he seems to have a problem with putting those three things together in a single game. I don't think he has a mental block or ongoing issues, just that he's often playing either too lax or too aggressive. If that's just youth and weird NCAA structures, then he could be a very good NBA starter, but if it's his MO then I worry he won't be able to use a lot of his skills with the ease/facility you need to use them with in the NBA. I'd like to see a pure PG version of Reggie Jackson, but could well be a PG version of Rodney Stuckey.

[Gomes3PC]

I would like Dunn more in a combo-guard role because of his TOs issues, that are normally something that dont really improve at the next level, on the other hand Wall is a franchise player at PG and has those, so...

Anyway, I think he could go anywhere from a complimentary PG/SG type, alla George Hill, Cory Joseph, to a franchise type PG.
The Kings look like the best option for him.

A downside comp I've had for him has been Antonio Daniels. Some of the turnovers were frankly due to his poor talent around him, but he does often try to make the hard pass even though an easier pass might be there. 538.com did a good article on it - his style developed that way out of necessity for PC because he really had to create shots for all his teammates.

[No-Man]

I think he is going to be a better passer than Daniels regardless, even if he busts.

I like him in that 3rd Guard role at least, and it is a valuable one, many teams play with two guards and he has size defensively to cover anybody from 1 to 3, look at Smart, although he is bulkier and more versatile, but you can live with it.

I am not going to compare him to Manu Ginobili, but they bring similar things even if they have different styles.

[Chi town]

I think he is going to be a better passer than Daniels regardless, even if he busts.

I like him in that 3rd Guard role at least, and it is a valuable one, many teams play with two guards and he has size defensively to cover anybody from 1 to 3, look at Smart, although he is bulkier and more versatile, but you can live with it.

I am not going to compare him to Manu Ginobili, but they bring similar things even if they have different styles.

His D alone against elite PGs will keep him from bust. His versatility will keep his floor really high as well.

[HotelVitale]

Watching this Heat-Hawks game, occurs to me that a bigger Teague is a good comp for Dunn. Both are quick and effective penetrators, can make plays but don't have the purest of points skills, started off as okay-not-great shooters, had great length to help on D. Their dribbling/driving sort of looks similar on the court, too.

Of course it took Teague a while to become anything, and I don't mean to imply that one guy equals the other. But I feel better about that comp than the John Wall or Antonio Daniels stuff that really doesn't help us see what Dunn's likely to do in the league.

[Chi town]

Watching this Heat-Hawks game, occurs to me that a bigger Teague is a good comp for Dunn. Both are quick and effective penetrators, can make plays but don't have the purest of points skills, started off as okay-not-great shooters, had great length to help on D. Their dribbling/driving sort of looks similar on the court, too.

Of course it took Teague a while to become anything, and I don't mean to imply that one guy equals the other. But I feel better about that comp than the John Wall or Antonio Daniels stuff that really doesn't help us see what Dunn's likely to do in the league.

Solid comp but Teague is quicker and Dunn more explosive above the rim. I still think n the right system Dunn is more similar to Wall.

[EddieJonesFan]

I've always seen him as a 6'4 Kyle Lowry, which is probably pretty damn good for a draft like this.

[HotelVitale]

I've always seen him as a 6'4 Kyle Lowry, which is probably pretty damn good for a draft like this.

Hmm, they don't seem similar to me at all. Lowry was a tough, strong, competitive NCAA player while Dunn is more of a smooth, quick/shifty player. Lowry was defined by his hard-nosed game, while Dunn has sort of an inconsistent motor and focus. They both got to the rack a lot, I guess, but Lowry was tenacious at doing that and Dunn is just quicker and bigger. And Lowry only became a real NBA player when he became a very good shooter, and Dunn doesn't look like he'll be that soon.

Of course Lowry wasn't a great shooter in college, and of course Dunn could develop Lowry-like things. But if we're comparing them as prospects, I don't see how Lowry works at all.

[toussaud]

I have come full circle on this kid. This kid WILL be a superstar in the league and people will kick themselves for nit taking him. The more I learn, the more I like. Grew up dirt poor. Mom in and out if jail. Kid could have easily went pro last year no questions asked, and everyone would have understood. He didn't , he works his ass off, graduates this year . Hes already on the team USA select team.

This is the guy I want leading my team. If I'm the 76ers I don't give a **** who is on the board, I'm not leaving this draft without dunn

[PickMeUpASixer]

I kind of agree. I don't see him as a superstar in his career, but a solid starter. He's already 21 (starting to pay attention to age more after reading an article on it) and I don't think he's ever going to be better than an okay shooter. He'll be a great defender that is an okay playmaker and a streaky scorer. Pretty much what Marcus Smart is. I think he'll be more Marcus Smart than Elfrid Payton or Michael Carter-Williams. But if you were to throw those three together and take out Payton's playmaking ability, that might be it.

Can you link the article?

Yeah, I'll look for it tomorrow. I can't remember exactly where I read it because I read a lot, but I really liked it. It was talking about how age affects a player's probability of being a star and how being older makes a player less likely to get better. It also talked about young players having the biggest chance to succeed. I think one of the stats was 1/5 18-20 year olds that get drafted become stars. I'll look for it.

I'm actually compiling a list using ages (with the age "star" formula) and height/wingspan to see who has the best chance. I found out the average height/wingspan, bottom-end as well as elite and compared them to drafted players. It's going to take some time to finish though. We're getting closer to draft time so I'm doing more hardcore research and evaluations.

That's clearly untrue, unless you have an extremely loose definition of "star"

[dalton749]

I've always seen him as a 6'4 Kyle Lowry, which is probably pretty damn good for a draft like this.

Hmm, they don't seem similar to me at all. Lowry was a tough, strong, competitive NCAA player while Dunn is more of a smooth, quick/shifty player. Lowry was defined by his hard-nosed game, while Dunn has sort of an inconsistent motor and focus. They both got to the rack a lot, I guess, but Lowry was tenacious at doing that and Dunn is just quicker and bigger. And Lowry only became a real NBA player when he became a very good shooter, and Dunn doesn't look like he'll be that soon.

Of course Lowry wasn't a great shooter in college, and of course Dunn could develop Lowry-like things. But if we're comparing them as prospects, I don't see how Lowry works at all.

A 6'4 Lowry would be a hall of famer, so that's a little high to project anyone.

[Chi town]

I have come full circle on this kid. This kid WILL be a superstar in the league and people will kick themselves for nit taking him. The more I learn, the more I like. Grew up dirt poor. Mom in and out if jail. Kid could have easily went pro last year no questions asked, and everyone would have understood. He didn't , he works his ass off, graduates this year . Hes already on the team USA select team.

This is the guy I want leading my team. If I'm the 76ers I don't give a **** who is on the board, I'm not leaving this draft without dunn

I wouldn't bet against Dunn.

[kennydorglas]

Dunn is a very strange case, because mostly of 22yo guards are very good offensive players w/ little to nothing in defense.
He's exactly the opposite.

defense+athleticism+playmaking is a VERY good combo for a guard.

[bwgood77]

Dunn is a very strange case, because mostly of 22yo guards are very good offensive players w/ little to nothing in defense.
He's exactly the opposite.

defense+athleticism+playmaking is a VERY good combo for a guard.

You should post all these to the Suns forum draft thread.

[GimmeDat]

Dunn is a very strange case, because mostly of 22yo guards are very good offensive players w/ little to nothing in defense.
He's exactly the opposite.

defense+athleticism+playmaking is a VERY good combo for a guard.

You should post all these to the Suns forum draft thread.

How are you feeling right now about Dunn, as a Suns fan? I think he may well be your best draft option, but then you'd have to consider moving Bledsoe and/or Knight.

[bwgood77]

Dunn is a very strange case, because mostly of 22yo guards are very good offensive players w/ little to nothing in defense.
He's exactly the opposite.

defense+athleticism+playmaking is a VERY good combo for a guard.

You should post all these to the Suns forum draft thread.

How are you feeling right now about Dunn, as a Suns fan? I think he may well be your best draft option, but then you'd have to consider moving Bledsoe and/or Knight.

I'm not really interested in taking a guard with the top pick. The reason mostly is because I don't think either of those guys WILL be moved, and the fact we have a glaring hole at PF. I would try and trade down if we can't get one of the top three forwards. I like Dunn and he could be good insurance for an injury to Bledsoe. My hope is that Bledsoe stays healthy and that Knight either embraces passing the ball more or maybe even coming off the bench eventually, or gets traded, even if we don't draft a guard.

[GimmeDat]

You should post all these to the Suns forum draft thread.

How are you feeling right now about Dunn, as a Suns fan? I think he may well be your best draft option, but then you'd have to consider moving Bledsoe and/or Knight.

I'm not really interested in taking a guard with the top pick. The reason mostly is because I don't think either of those guys WILL be moved, and the fact we have a glaring hole at PF. I would try and trade down if we can't get one of the top three forwards. I like Dunn and he could be good insurance for an injury to Bledsoe. My hope is that Bledsoe stays healthy and that Knight either embraces passing the ball more or maybe even coming off the bench eventually, or gets traded, even if we don't draft a guard.

Moving down's not a bad option (presuming you don't land in the Top 3). Any PF prospects in particular?

I think Bledsoe/Booker is a nice starting combo, and I think Knight's best role is as a 6th man.

[bwgood77]

How are you feeling right now about Dunn, as a Suns fan? I think he may well be your best draft option, but then you'd have to consider moving Bledsoe and/or Knight.

I'm not really interested in taking a guard with the top pick. The reason mostly is because I don't think either of those guys WILL be moved, and the fact we have a glaring hole at PF. I would try and trade down if we can't get one of the top three forwards. I like Dunn and he could be good insurance for an injury to Bledsoe. My hope is that Bledsoe stays healthy and that Knight either embraces passing the ball more or maybe even coming off the bench eventually, or gets traded, even if we don't draft a guard.

Moving down's not a bad option (presuming you don't land in the Top 3). Any PF prospects in particular?

I think Bledsoe/Booker is a nice starting combo, and I think Knight's best role is as a 6th man.

Well it depends. I wouldn't be surprised if Bender slides as I think most everyone in the lottery would rather have one of the guards in the 3-6 range or more of an immediate contributer than Bender probably would be. What teams in the lottery, if they got the third pick, do you think take Bender? And then what teams that would potentially slide to 4-6 would take Bender? I made a post on the Suns board about it a while back....

Simmons, Ingram, Bender. In that order. If we don't get one of those guys with our first pick, I really don't care who we pick or even if we trade it.

I do think there is a good chance that even if we drop down to 5 or 6, and 5th is the most likely place we will draft, that Bender will be there, because LA has kind of said they will trade their pick if they keep it, and I can't see Philly taking Bender if they drop to 3 or 4 or have two picks because they have 3 centers AND Saric already. They will take guard(s). And Boston needs shooting and probably wants a guy that can help their competitive team now, and with IT having only a year left, a guy like Murray makes sense considering Smart isn't that good of a shooter.

It would have to be another random team jumping to 3rd that might take Bender. Minny could, but they could also go with Dunn or Murray, or even Hield, since they need perimeter shooting and/or possibly a good backup for Rubio (or potential replacement for him in the future).

I think New Orleans, Denver, Sacramento or Toronto would all go guard, and probably Milwaukee.

I think he might slide, perhaps (in the worst case scenario that three teams jump us) even to 7, and for no other reason than the fact that most of those teams need guards. Minnesota would be the big question mark, but they are pretty close to being ready to compete, so if they want a big they might go with someone like Ellenson who may contribute more. Plus Ellenson is from up north and University of Minnesota was really after him.

I think the wildcard would be Minnesota. The Lakers don't need guards, but with Jim Buss under the gun I can't see them going with Bender over trading it. Some who traded for the pick could take him though.

Otherwise I kind of like Chriss, in the fact he is athletic, blocks shots and can hit 3s, though his fouling and IQ worry me. Other than that I kind of like Sabonis, due to the high IQ, but he can be had later, maybe with Washington pick if they don't jump. Deyonta Davis maybe. I also like Ben Bentil later.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Dunn is a very strange case, because mostly of 22yo guards are very good offensive players w/ little to nothing in defense.
He's exactly the opposite.

defense+athleticism+playmaking is a VERY good combo for a guard.

That chart gives me a lot of pause.

It looks like Dunn is elite at being big and pretty average when it comes to actual production.

[76ciology]

Dunn is a very strange case, because mostly of 22yo guards are very good offensive players w/ little to nothing in defense.
He's exactly the opposite.

defense+athleticism+playmaking is a VERY good combo for a guard.

That chart gives me a lot of pause.

It looks like Dunn is elite at being big and pretty average when it comes to actual production.

Think Kawhi before playing with the Spurs.

Good chance in being a two way player. He'll thrive with a team with a good offensive system that maximizes attacking via close outs and penetrations like Spurs or Hawks. Most of his success will really depend on his perimeter shooting.

I've got a feeling Sixers will end up with the 3rd pick and select this guy. I hope I'm wrong.