Kris Dunn

76ciology · Post #201 » by **76ciology** » Tue May 17, 2016 8:20 am

Fischella wrote:Comparing Dunn with Smart is just lazy

It's not a SMART comparison

guille_4 · Post #202 » by **guille_4** » Sun May 22, 2016 10:25 pm

Can he defend SGs in the NBA? How well do you think he fits Minnesota?

He fills a hole in case Rubio leaves once his contract's up and could potentially play besides Rubio (as a SG) and Lavine (as a PG).

PG Rubio 34 Dunn 14
SG Lavine 34 Wiggins 4 Dunn 10

P.S. Yes, I'm really not sold on Tyus Jones.

HotelVitale · Post #203 » by **HotelVitale** » Mon May 23, 2016 12:08 am

guille_4 wrote:Can he defend SGs in the NBA? How well do you think he fits Minnesota?
He fills a hole in case Rubio leaves once his contract's up and could potentially play besides Rubio (as a SG) and Lavine (as a PG).
PG Rubio 34 Dunn 14
SG Lavine 34 Wiggins 4 Dunn 10 .

To my eyes it's sort of a mystery how well he'd play off the ball, especially on offense. Despite his size and the fact that he's a good cutter and finisher, the Providence offense didn't use him a lot as a straight-up wing. I think he could develop a great attack game off-ball if he can keep his shooting up (the big question mark with him, of course), and he has the size to check most SGs. I noticed that he can be a ball stopper, though, and he'd need some time (and the willingness) to make that adjustment.

KqWIN · Post #204 » by **KqWIN** » Tue May 24, 2016 7:28 pm

Can anyone explain to me how Kris Dunn improved his draft stock so much? Last year, he was seen as a late lottery pick and from my shallow point of view he didn't really perform any better this season than the last one. My initial thought was the relative weakness of this year's draft, but if that were the case why didn't Poeltl rise as well? Unlike Dunn, Poeltl improved his games by leaps and bounds but only moved up a couple of spots.

I'm not trying to dog Dunn, just curious as to how his stock improved.

arh1109 · Post #205 » by **arh1109** » Tue May 24, 2016 8:12 pm

I just wrote a blog post about him. I like him a lot as a prospect. I think he needs to start out in a C.J. McCollum type role where he plays around an established star. His outside shooting and decision making skills aren't there yet. I see his best case being John Wall and a worst case of Mike Conley. I think he's fairly valued in most mock drafts due to him being 22.

HotelVitale · Post #206 » by **HotelVitale** » Tue May 24, 2016 9:55 pm

arh1109 wrote:I just wrote a blog post about him. I like him a lot as a prospect. I think he needs to start out in a C.J. McCollum type role where he plays around an established star. His outside shooting and decision making skills aren't there yet. I see his best case being John Wall and a worst case of Mike Conley. I think he's fairly valued in most mock drafts due to him being 22.

I'm pretty big on Dunn but that's a ridiculous floor for him. I'm guessing you just mean basic numbers and style--posting 17/6 with solid defense--but Conley's much better than that suggests. Over the past four years, his advanced numbers--from ortg/drtg to VORP to BPM--have him neck and neck with Wall, mostly because of his excellent defense and decision-making (he rarely turns the ball over and never fouls).

Again, I like Dunn but his worst case is more like a solid back-up who can penetrate/initiate pretty regularly but isn't quite efficient or steady enough to start. I would bet that he can become a starter but it's not easy to become one of the best 20-25 point guards in the world and there are plenty of reasons why he might not reach that level.

joyeuxnoel · Post #207 » by **joyeuxnoel** » Wed May 25, 2016 5:49 pm

not a fan of dunn. i see him ending up as a solid starter, i.e brandon knight ceiling, a guy who doesnt really change your franchise

In other words, a great value to pick around 8-10, but not 3-5

saintEscaton · Post #208 » by **saintEscaton** » Wed May 25, 2016 10:28 pm

joyeuxnoel wrote:not a fan of dunn. i see him ending up as a solid starter, i.e brandon knight ceiling, a guy who doesnt really change your franchise

In other words, a great value to pick around 8-10, but not 3-5

This is a baseless statement. Unlike Knight he actually has a defined position , court vision and two-way skills. I see him being a bigger pure point version of Beldsoe with a shiftier handle, better imprivization in the half court, more capability to seperate off the dribble and relentless motor pushing the break.His on ball defense might be slightly overrated though, but he has the length to recover gambling on passing lanes and the speed to get chasedown blocks helpside

Post #209 » by **Sixerscan** » Thu May 26, 2016 2:38 am

Why do people say Dunn can't shoot when he has two straight years of shooting an acceptable percentage from 3? And I am sure he shot many of those off the dribble. Like I get that it's not his strength but to say he can't shoot seems like a stretch...

Post #210 » by **jman3134** » Thu May 26, 2016 6:02 am

Better floor spacing will really help his attack game at the next level. He's a very explosive weapon off the bounce and will develop a better in between game. His shot is inconsistent (for example, his shooting funk in the Big East tournament and beyond), but he is a capable three point shooter.

His best potential is as a game changer on the defensive end of the floor. He is exceptionally adept at reading the defense and has the length and quick hands to really make an impact at the next level for the team that selects him.

Mustinjo · Post #211 » by **Mustinjo** » Thu May 26, 2016 10:31 am

Sixerscan wrote:Why do people say Dunn can't shoot when he has two straight years of shooting an acceptable percentage from 3? And I am sure he shot many of those off the dribble. Like I get that it's not his strength but to say he can't shoot seems like a stretch...

Because he shoots free throws badly for a guard and that's always a red flag when it comes to shooting.

arh1109 · Post #212 » by **arh1109** » Thu May 26, 2016 4:10 pm

HotelVitale wrote:
arh1109 wrote:I just wrote a blog post about him. I like him a lot as a prospect. I think he needs to start out in a C.J. McCollum type role where he plays around an established star. His outside shooting and decision making skills aren't there yet. I see his best case being John Wall and a worst case of Mike Conley. I think he's fairly valued in most mock drafts due to him being 22.

I'm pretty big on Dunn but that's a ridiculous floor for him. I'm guessing you just mean basic numbers and style--posting 17/6 with solid defense--but Conley's much better than that suggests. Over the past four years, his advanced numbers--from ortg/drtg to VORP to BPM--have him neck and neck with Wall, mostly because of his excellent defense and decision-making (he rarely turns the ball over and never fouls).

Again, I like Dunn but his worst case is more like a solid back-up who can penetrate/initiate pretty regularly but isn't quite efficient or steady enough to start. I would bet that he can become a starter but it's not easy to become one of the best 20-25 point guards in the world and there are plenty of reasons why he might not reach that level.

17/6 are Conley's career highs, his career average is 13.6/5.8. I meant he's going to be a solid starter in this league. It probably isn't the best comparison as Dunn has a much higher usg % and isn't as efficient with the ball. I'm not really an expert on advance stats so I'll go with what you said. I do believe his athleticism and anticipation on defense will keep him in the league.

HotelVitale · Post #213 » by **HotelVitale** » Thu May 26, 2016 4:39 pm

arh1109 wrote: 17/6 are Conley's career highs, his career average is 13.6/5.8. I meant he's going to be a solid starter in this league. It probably isn't the best comparison as Dunn has a much higher usg % and isn't as efficient with the ball. I'm not really an expert on advance stats so I'll go with what you said. I do believe his athleticism and anticipation on defense will keep him in the league.

Right, but his floor is the worst case scenario of his development, and what you're talking about is his middle-range--his most likely outcome, your overall expectation for him. I'd say it's fair to say Dunn's middle-range is pretty good starter (though again I think the consensus is that Conley is better than that description right now).

Anyway, though we've basically agreed to drop this comparison, here are a couple other quick things:
--Dunn's usage isn't 'much higher' than Conley's: Dunn has been at exactly 28% the last two years while Conley's last 3 years he's averaged about 24%. Dunn's TO% is more than twice as high though.
--Conley's a career 37% 3pt shooter, that's probably close to a best case scenario for Dunn (who's not an awful shooter but not a strong one)
--Conley had also played 3 years in the NBA before he was Dunn's age

Nebula1 · Post #214 » by **Nebula1** » Thu May 26, 2016 6:57 pm

I'm really hoping he lands in New Orleans to play with AD. I think he could energize that squad.

But I love Dunn as a player. I think he'll be one of the best in this class.

SelfishPlayer · Post #215 » by **SelfishPlayer** » Thu Jun 2, 2016 6:19 pm

There are too many Westbrook and Wade comparisons for such an older player that didn't dominate college basketball. I see a stronger possibility of him having a Keyon Dooling or Smush Parker career.

JMac1 · Post #216 » by **JMac1** » Thu Jun 2, 2016 7:34 pm

SelfishPlayer wrote:There are too many Westbrook and Wade comparisons for such an older player that didn't dominate college basketball. I see a stronger possibility of him having a Keyon Dooling or Smush Parker career.

Smush Parker? Sounds like a grudge.

HotelVitale · Post #217 » by **HotelVitale** » Thu Jun 2, 2016 8:15 pm

SelfishPlayer wrote:There are too many Westbrook and Wade comparisons for such an older player that didn't dominate college basketball. I see a stronger possibility of him having a Keyon Dooling or Smush Parker career.

Arguing against a straw man there, the only thing people have said is that 'he looks a little like Wade.' There's no point in saying 'he's either Wade or Smush Parker,' or in resting your case on his 'not dominating college basketball.' He was a very good NCAA player, and he dominated in some important things--top 2 in assist rate the last two years, elite in steal % too. Plus he's got great size and athleticism, and his advanced numbers are very very good (choose anyone you like--ortg/drtg, BPM, WS, etc). Lots of his game should transfer, though there are question marks as always about different aspects. (There are also obvious reasons for him staying that long--he didn't play much his freshman year and was injured his whole soph season, so his stock wasn't great after a very strong junior season. He's really only played two years of NCAA ball.)

In any case, the usual stuff about prospects is what's important for predicting his success in the NBA. Not his career NCAA ppg or the existence of Dwyane Wade or Russell Westbrook or your definition of 'domination' in college ball.

PELICANSFAN · Post #218 » by **PELICANSFAN** » Thu Jun 2, 2016 8:41 pm

SelfishPlayer wrote:There are too many Westbrook and Wade comparisons for such an older player that didn't dominate college basketball. I see a stronger possibility of him having a Keyon Dooling or Smush Parker career.

Now you're being ridiculous. Do you really see that as a strong possibility?

Cammo101 · Post #219 » by **Cammo101** » Thu Jun 2, 2016 8:54 pm

SelfishPlayer wrote:There are too many Westbrook and Wade comparisons for such an older player that didn't dominate college basketball. I see a stronger possibility of him having a Keyon Dooling or Smush Parker career.

Westbrook's final season at UCLA: 12.7 ppg., 4.3 apg., 3.9 rpg., 1.6 spg.
Wade's final season at Marquette: 21.5 ppg., 4.4 apg., 6.6 rpg., 2.2 spg.

Dunn's junior year at Providence: 15.6 ppg., 7.5 apg., 5.5 rpg., 2.7 spg.
Dunn's final season at Providence: 16.4 ppg., 6.2 apg., 5.3 rpg., 2.5 spg.

Dunn's numbers the last 2 years compare pretty favorably to Wade's and are much better than Westbrook's best season. Please try again.

rpa · Post #220 » by **rpa** » Thu Jun 2, 2016 9:10 pm

Cammo101 wrote:
SelfishPlayer wrote:There are too many Westbrook and Wade comparisons for such an older player that didn't dominate college basketball. I see a stronger possibility of him having a Keyon Dooling or Smush Parker career.

Westbrook's final season at UCLA: 12.7 ppg., 4.3 apg., 3.9 rpg., 1.6 spg.
Wade's final season at Marquette: 21.5 ppg., 4.4 apg., 6.6 rpg., 2.2 spg.

Dunn's junior year at Providence: 15.6 ppg., 7.5 apg., 5.5 rpg., 2.7 spg.
Dunn's final season at Providence: 16.4 ppg., 6.2 apg., 5.3 rpg., 2.5 spg.

Dunn's numbers the last 2 years compare pretty favorably to Wade's and are much better than Westbrook's best season. Please try again.

Isn't the Westbrook comparison irrelevant here since Collison was the full time PG on that team (relegating Westbrook to playing out of position)?