RealGM

Who is the better prospect?

I don't understand the Kristaps hype. What's the big deal with him? Sure, he's really long and is a super skilled shooter for his size. But his length is mitigated by the fact that he is very slight, therefore his physical impact is reduced. And as soon as he puts on weight and becomes heavier he will lose his mobility advantage anyway (cos he doesn't appear particularly explosive or powerful enough to move more mass). And his shooting is mitigated by the fact that his basketball instincts just aren't that good. For a guy whose game style is supposed to be a sought after offensive weapon in modern day basketball (stretch 4), how can you run an offense through that? Here's some words that stood out to me from the DraftExpress report on him...

On the downside, Porzingis still looks a long ways away from reaching his full potential here, starting with his body, which remains very frail and could make him susceptible to injuries if not developed carefully. He also lacks something in the ways of toughness and awareness, as he tends to avoid contact in the paint and regularly gets pushed around on the interior, not always offering up as much resistance as you might hope. The game moves a little too fast for him at times, and he doesn't appear to be the quickest thinker around, often looking a half-step slow in his reaction time. All of these things show up in his surprisingly pedestrian rebounding numbers (2.4 offensive and 5.8 defensive per-40).

Porzingis also isn't a great passer, dishing out just 41 assists in his last 1813 minutes of action over the the last three years (spanning the ACB, EuroCup, NIJT and U18 European Championship), or one assist for every 44 minutes he plays. His assist percentage this season (and over the course of career) is one of the lowest of any player in this draft class, which is not ideal for a stretch-4 that teams may hope to run a significant amount of offense through on the perimeter.

While Porzingis' superior size for his position is certainly attractive, at the moment he has very few ways of utilizing his height to his advantage besides his shooting stroke, as he has no back to the basket game and very little interest in playing inside the paint.

There are multiple red flags in there for me. Not 1 but multiple. Unless he has some sort transcendent work ethic, i'm finding it very hard to imagine him projecting as anything more than a bench rotation guy. I just don't think he has "it". Sure he has talent and could be useful. But no way he finds a starter opportunity. Today's NBA is too talented.

I'm getting flashbacks of Nikola Tskitishvili here. How is he in the top 5 conversation at all? Mid 1st-round i could understand, but people are talking about him as if he's some future stud.

So yeah, i voted for Hezonja, more based on the fact that i think Kristaps is overrated

Barnsey wrote:I don't understand the Kristaps hype. What's the big deal with him? Sure, he's really long and is a super skilled shooter for his size. But his length is mitigated by the fact that he is very slight, therefore his physical impact is reduced. And as soon as he puts on weight and becomes heavier he will lose his mobility advantage anyway (cos he doesn't appear particularly explosive or powerful enough to move more mass). And his shooting is mitigated by the fact that his basketball instincts just aren't that good. For a guy whose game style is supposed to be a sought after offensive weapon in modern day basketball (stretch 4), how can you run an offense through that? Here's some words that stood out to me from the DraftExpress report on him...

On the downside, Porzingis still looks a long ways away from reaching his full potential here, starting with his body, which remains very frail and could make him susceptible to injuries if not developed carefully. He also lacks something in the ways of toughness and awareness, as he tends to avoid contact in the paint and regularly gets pushed around on the interior, not always offering up as much resistance as you might hope. The game moves a little too fast for him at times, and he doesn't appear to be the quickest thinker around, often looking a half-step slow in his reaction time. All of these things show up in his surprisingly pedestrian rebounding numbers (2.4 offensive and 5.8 defensive per-40).

Porzingis also isn't a great passer, dishing out just 41 assists in his last 1813 minutes of action over the the last three years (spanning the ACB, EuroCup, NIJT and U18 European Championship), or one assist for every 44 minutes he plays. His assist percentage this season (and over the course of career) is one of the lowest of any player in this draft class, which is not ideal for a stretch-4 that teams may hope to run a significant amount of offense through on the perimeter.

While Porzingis' superior size for his position is certainly attractive, at the moment he has very few ways of utilizing his height to his advantage besides his shooting stroke, as he has no back to the basket game and very little interest in playing inside the paint.

There are multiple red flags in there for me. Not 1 but multiple. Unless he has some sort transcendent work ethic, i'm finding it very hard to imagine him projecting as anything more than a bench rotation guy. I just don't think he has "it". Sure he has talent and could be useful. But no way he finds a starter opportunity. Today's NBA is too talented.

I'm getting flashbacks of Nikola Tskitishvili here. How is he in the top 5 conversation at all? Mid 1st-round i could understand, but people are talking about him as if he's some future stud.

So yeah, i voted for Hezonja, more based on the fact that i think Kristaps is overrated

Valancunas used to be skinny and agile, look what happened.
I wouldn't take both of these guys, could be major busts.

Are they both coming over next season?

The further they drop the more value they have. In the top 5, no thanks. Maybe if they were one of the Euros who play in the Hoop Summit and I could see them against the top American prospects, it would be different. But I have no feel for them. Summer league will be interesting.

Whoever drafts Porzingis, I'm guessing they will hate it, but then end up loving him long term. He is going to be good.

Barnsey wrote: For a guy whose game style is supposed to be a sought after offensive weapon in modern day basketball (stretch 4), how can you run an offense through that?
There are multiple red flags in there for me. Not 1 but multiple. Unless he has some sort transcendent work ethic, i'm finding it very hard to imagine him projecting as anything more than a bench rotation guy.

I'm not driving the Porzingis train, but this seems like an overreaction. He's played well and shown potential to do even more, and you also have to remember that he's 19 and playing against 26-32 year old professionals and ex-college stars, not just other 19-20 year olds in the NCAA. The competition is stiffer and weaknesses stand out a lot more when playing with superior smart vets.

Overall, he's a darn good prospect who has every chance to be a very very good player. He's a higher risk guy than someone like Winslow--who doesn't have much bust potential--but he's got a higher ceiling by all accounts. Just check out the ridiculously glowing praise that draft express has for him right above the part you quoted:
Porzingis is one of the most unique players in this draft class, showing an impressive combination of height, length, fluidity and skills. He's very mobile...has beautiful shooting mechanics, complete with deep range, a quick release...it's virtually impossible to contest his shot... he can put the ball down in a straight line and make his way to the basket, sometimes for a very impressive finish...he'll shock you with some of the plays he makes at times, executing moves that only a handful of players his size on the planet can pull off...Porzingis also shows interesting potential defensively...His combination of size, length and mobility gives him impressive versatility on the pick and roll, allowing him to hedge out past the 3-point line and still recover in time to make a play in the paint for example. He's also agile enough to switch and stay in front of smaller players if called upon, giving his team the type of positional flexibility every coaching staff in the NBA covets greatly these days.

With those pluses in mind, not having a post game, not getting many assists, and not always making the right play seem like pretty manageable downsides. Worse can be said of most guys in the mix at #5-6.

Not a fan of either. As an Euro fanboy, I usually have my favorite euro in the draft, but not this year.

HotelVitale wrote:With those pluses in mind, not having a post game, not getting many assists, and not always making the right play seem like pretty manageable downsides. Worse can be said of most guys in the mix at #5-6.

You forgot to mention the biggest downside of all: that he is not a fast thinker and is often a step behind the play.

No thanks.

Hezonja without a doubt.

Porzingis is Jan Vesely 2.0

Love both. I'd give a slight edge to Porzingis because having a guy that could potentially be a great shooter and shot blocker at PF is pretty rare.

Regardless, I like both more than Winslow. To me, they're the #5 and 6 prospects in the draft.

Clevelander wrote:Porzingis is Jan Vesely 2.0

Jan is better athlete, but Porzingis can shoot.
Other than being long,tall Euro guys that can dunk there are not that many similarities.

It's hard to trust Euros near the lottery. TBH I wouldn't take either until late lottery or later.

Hezonja. Porzingis is being overrated as sh** by most of the "draft experts". There are guys saying he should be Top 4 in the draft. Come on!

Porzingis IS that good. Dude is a spider.

TheTrooper wrote:

Clevelander wrote:Porzingis is Jan Vesely 2.0

Jan is better athlete, but Porzingis can shoot.
Other than being long,tall Euro guys that can dunk there are not that many similarities.

Porzingis is also longer. Dude, moving that well with that height should already make a player a starter.

We have seen hezonja play a bit, and we like what we saw.
I haven't seen kristaps play at all yet, he is really a question mark. They seem to think he could be the next dirk

I haven't seen much of him so I'm not going to say anything with real conviction, but the way people talk about Porzingis just makes him sound a lot like Yi Jianlian. Strength and toughness can be gained, but if he's having trouble keeping up with slower and less athletic European teams even though he's longer and more athletic than most of the guys he's going up against, that's not a good sign.

This is Porzingis dunking over 7'3" Walter Tavares, the ACB's leading shot blocker. I still think Porzingis eventually makes an Ibaka-like impact. Not quite as athletic as Ibaka, but longer. I think he could measure very very long.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-k1w9Kr_ew[/youtube]