HotelVitale wrote:Envelope wrote:His basement is Jae Crowder, who was just below and all star this year.
No one outside of elite, once-every-couple-years prospects have a basement of 'borderline all star.' Tim Duncan for example had the basement, since he barely needed to improve at all to get there. 'Basement' means the very worst outcome, I think you mean something closer 'the worst case scenario if he still develops at a slightly better-than-average rate than most prospects do.'
Crowder for instance developed extremely well and has improved impressively to get where he's at. So he's already at maybe the 85th or 90th percentile for prospects. If Brown can learn to shoot a lot better than he does now, play nearly perfect defense (in terms of rotation, timing, etc), and contribute much better team offense then he has a chance to be as good as Crowder is now. He's starting out as the better athlete and transition player, worse in every other aspect of the game. For reference, Brown's offensive rating was like 25% lower than Crowder's was either of his two years at Marquette (Brown's 98.4 vs Crowder's 124.5/15.7).
Brown is smart, humble, and a hard worker. If he was arrogant, like Ben Simmons, or immature, like DRussell, or very low self-esteem, like Perry Jones, or lazy, like a lot of players, there would be less certainty about Jaylen Brown developing more in the NBA.
But when a player is smart, humble, hard working, and gifted with absolutely elite tools, there's just little question about their basement being high.
People don't pay any attention to these intangibles, and that's why they misjudge players so often that they start insisting there's no way to know how they'll develop in the future.
If people paid more attention to "little" things like intelligence, maturity, humility, and work ethic, there would be a lot less draft mistakes.
Stanley Johnson, Winslow, RHJefferson, Powell, these guys all had/have great intangibles, along with their elite bodies and athleticism.
Neither Jaylen Brown nor Jae Crowder are great passers or have exceptional shooting talent. But they're both hard working, humble, intelligent, and mature. And Brown has much better explosive athleticism than Crowder. He also has significantly better standing reach. Crowder's a great defender, but his low standing reach costs him regularly, and he can be scored over regularly. Brown's longer arms and higher standing reach will allow him to contest and block more shots, and get in more passing lanes (he already has great instincts here). His superior athleticism/jumping will also allow him to block and contest more shots than Crowder is able to do.
The explosiveness will also make it easier for Brown to get his shot off around the rim and everywhere else for that matter.
So Brown will be able to be a less talented defender than Crowder, but still make similar impact because of his superior length, quickness, and athleticism. He's a safe bet to be a plus defender in the NBA.
And offensively, Brown's 3 point shot can lag and he can still be as good offensively as Crowder, because of his superior quickness, athleticism, ball handling, and juke instincts.
I watch Crowder every single game, from the day he showed up from Dallas last year. Jaylen Brown can do what Crowder does, easily, with a couple years in the league. And his upside is an all star or MVP candidate version of Crowder. And Brown won't need to be a great passer to be that level of player.