One-stop shop on SGs in this draft
Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:03 am
The Vitals
I don't think that you need my help to understand what this says.
I’ve split this class into two groups, seniors and underclassmen. I’ve provided the averages for both groups to highlight why I’ve split them up. It’s just something you need to keep in mind when you compare guys of different experience levels. I’ve also just removed Wayne Selden because his numbers suck and there’s no point in sticking him with either group.
Overall Offense
The split in points naturally has something to do with role, but it’s obvious that seniors get more responsibilities and are going to produce a higher volume of everything. However, the gap in efficiency is a clear result of a player’s game maturing. Judging them relative to their groupings, you can see that say, Baker is inefficient for a senior, but if we were to look at them as one group, you’d put him near the middle of the pack.
For seniors, Hield still stands out in terms of the volume and efficiency with which he scored, but his overall offensive impact was not as big as that of LeVert or McClellan. He is still ahead of Valentine though. Gbinijie is last.
For underclassmen, Murray is the top scorer and is just .1% away from being the TS% leader too. Despite this, he has a relatively
small offensive impact. And although part of the gap has to do with the sample or players we’ve been given, I think it’s clear that seniors are going to have a bigger impact on their teams’ offense than freshman, so we shouldn’t hold their lower Net ORtg against them quite so much.
Penetration
Here is another category where there is a clear gap between upperclassmen and freshmen. Just look at the seniors’ UAFG this year vs. their career number. Due to a combination of an improved handle and a higher volume of shots taken overall, more veteran players are going to have higher UAFG than less veteran players. The one exception in this class is Valentine.
Valentine’s pathetic UAFG and %FGA at rim explain why he is behind Hield, LeVert and McClellan in Net ORtg – he doesn’t put as much pressure on defenses because he never, ever attacks the basket. Really, 16.4% is stunningly bad, no other prospect took such a miniscule% of their shots at the rim, and even then half of his makes were assisted. But he did do much better in the past – this year he fell so in love with that jump shot that he gave up on attacking the basket entirely it seems. To his detriment.
Only LeVert and Brogdon have a consistent track record of being able to get to the basket and score, so they should probably be considered the best penetrators of the seniors.
For the underclassmen, Whitehead and Hamilton are the top penetrators simply due to the volume of shots they took and how inoften they were assisted. Richardson actually rates as the best penetrator if we are being honest – Whitehead and Hamilton’s awful finishing precludes them from being serious threats at the rim in the NBA. Even then, Richardson’s numbers are pretty unimpressive. None of these guards look really promising in this area.
Shooting
Yet another category where there is a clear distinction between the seniors and underclassmen, which no doubt has something to do with the efficiency gap and offensive impact gap.
Of key importance is the % of makes assisted here, as unassisted offense is much harder than assisted offense. Valentine and Brogdon hit a fantastic % from 3 but don’t generate that much themselves. They needed to be set up. Baker, McClellen, LeVert and Hield were all getting over a third of their makes off the dribble in contrast.
Murray and Whitehead are the standouts among underclassmen, due to their volume and accuracy, although Whitehead should get some props for how much offense he had to create for himself. The only guy who can’t shoot 3s is Hamilton and he at least is excellent at the line.
Passing
Seniors, being more familiar with the offense they play in after 3 years, are going to know simply by instinct where their teammates are and will be better equipped to deal with opposing defensive schemes. So their passing numbers are going to be substantially better than underclassmen’s.
This is why Hield’s AST% and A/TO and all of the rest are concerning. Hield really, really sucks at passing the ball. His vision is awful and his numbers haven’t improved with him holding the ball more. This really kills his value as a penetrator in the NBA. Even though he’s improved his handle and has added some moves to get by people, he still cannot be trusted with the ball in his hands because he can’t pass. McClellan at least avoids turning the ball over.
Brogdon also deserves a mention for not being much of a passer, but he is a competent enough ball mover. Baker is a good passer but his inability to threaten teams at the rim means that his passing ability won’t be very relevant in the NBA.
LeVert and Valentine pass like PGs, and even by the standards of seniors are extremely capable with the ball in their hands.
For the underclassmen, some guys have it and some don’t. Top three can pass, bottom three cannot and do not. That’s bad news for Murray – his penetration was already unimpressive, now it turns out that all the talk about being a potential PG is clearly 100% bull. While McCaw is running on instincts and Whitehead is passing mostly as a function of holding the ball so much, Hamilton is a real PG- like guy with great vision due to his height.
Defense
The guys who are staying in school usually do not have great potential on defense – if they had the elite athleticism they’d have left for the draft earlier. But that doesn’t mean that our underclassmen are any good at defense either.
Valentine’s steal rate is really disappointing in light of his BBIQ and unusual length, indicating to me that he really is that slow, but he rates as a net-positive defender on the strength of his rebounding. Baker and LeVert show up as actually decent defenders on their own merits – Baker in part due to his length and LeVert in part due to his height and versatility. Gbinije, Hield and Brogdon all rate as poor defenders, but McClellan is a cut below them. His short arms no doubt help, but that Net DRtg is the mark of someone who probably isn’t trying hard.
Hamilton is the only guy here who look to be a legitimate impact defender. Although he is in fact a bit slow and has poor length, he was actually a good man defender and dominates the defensive glass like a top-notch center. I mean he’s really freakish on the glass. McCaw at least shows good awareness and has potential. Whitehead’s shot-blocking is a mystery in light of his horrendous finishing at the rim. Beasley, Richardson and Murray all basically suck, and there is no reason to expect them to become good.
Overall
I'm going to keep it short for now, simply because I'm running out of steam writing these all up. I figure that you're smart enough to be able to draw conclusions about these guys anyways, but I'll try to expand and profile each guy like I did for the other positions.
LeVert was a beast but it won’t matter if he can’t stay on the court. McClellan was fantastic but is a black hole and needs to play defense if he wants a shot in the league. Hield brings nothing but jump shooting and should not be drafted on the assumption that he can develop into anything but a shooter. Valentine’s doesn’t create for himself and has Bradon Roy’s knees, but for two years he could be a decently valuable spot-up shooter and rebounder. Baker can be a 3 and D guy. Brogdon’s defense looks overrated but he is the only guy who isn’t injured who can shoot and get to the rim. Gbinije doesn’t really bring enough to the table to get drafted IMO.
McCaw is oozing potential and absurdly underrated as a Swiss army knife/glue guy. Beasley and Murray are just shooters, but Murray is as a better shooter. If Hamilton can develop a threating 3 point shot then he could be a better, healthy version of Valentine, but until he does he can’t get on the court. Whitehead is cool if you want a chucker. Richardson is an abomination who doesn’t deserve to be drafted, not even with the 60th pick.
I don't think that you need my help to understand what this says.
I’ve split this class into two groups, seniors and underclassmen. I’ve provided the averages for both groups to highlight why I’ve split them up. It’s just something you need to keep in mind when you compare guys of different experience levels. I’ve also just removed Wayne Selden because his numbers suck and there’s no point in sticking him with either group.
Overall Offense
The split in points naturally has something to do with role, but it’s obvious that seniors get more responsibilities and are going to produce a higher volume of everything. However, the gap in efficiency is a clear result of a player’s game maturing. Judging them relative to their groupings, you can see that say, Baker is inefficient for a senior, but if we were to look at them as one group, you’d put him near the middle of the pack.
For seniors, Hield still stands out in terms of the volume and efficiency with which he scored, but his overall offensive impact was not as big as that of LeVert or McClellan. He is still ahead of Valentine though. Gbinijie is last.
For underclassmen, Murray is the top scorer and is just .1% away from being the TS% leader too. Despite this, he has a relatively
small offensive impact. And although part of the gap has to do with the sample or players we’ve been given, I think it’s clear that seniors are going to have a bigger impact on their teams’ offense than freshman, so we shouldn’t hold their lower Net ORtg against them quite so much.
Penetration
Here is another category where there is a clear gap between upperclassmen and freshmen. Just look at the seniors’ UAFG this year vs. their career number. Due to a combination of an improved handle and a higher volume of shots taken overall, more veteran players are going to have higher UAFG than less veteran players. The one exception in this class is Valentine.
Valentine’s pathetic UAFG and %FGA at rim explain why he is behind Hield, LeVert and McClellan in Net ORtg – he doesn’t put as much pressure on defenses because he never, ever attacks the basket. Really, 16.4% is stunningly bad, no other prospect took such a miniscule% of their shots at the rim, and even then half of his makes were assisted. But he did do much better in the past – this year he fell so in love with that jump shot that he gave up on attacking the basket entirely it seems. To his detriment.
Only LeVert and Brogdon have a consistent track record of being able to get to the basket and score, so they should probably be considered the best penetrators of the seniors.
For the underclassmen, Whitehead and Hamilton are the top penetrators simply due to the volume of shots they took and how inoften they were assisted. Richardson actually rates as the best penetrator if we are being honest – Whitehead and Hamilton’s awful finishing precludes them from being serious threats at the rim in the NBA. Even then, Richardson’s numbers are pretty unimpressive. None of these guards look really promising in this area.
Shooting
Yet another category where there is a clear distinction between the seniors and underclassmen, which no doubt has something to do with the efficiency gap and offensive impact gap.
Of key importance is the % of makes assisted here, as unassisted offense is much harder than assisted offense. Valentine and Brogdon hit a fantastic % from 3 but don’t generate that much themselves. They needed to be set up. Baker, McClellen, LeVert and Hield were all getting over a third of their makes off the dribble in contrast.
Murray and Whitehead are the standouts among underclassmen, due to their volume and accuracy, although Whitehead should get some props for how much offense he had to create for himself. The only guy who can’t shoot 3s is Hamilton and he at least is excellent at the line.
Passing
Seniors, being more familiar with the offense they play in after 3 years, are going to know simply by instinct where their teammates are and will be better equipped to deal with opposing defensive schemes. So their passing numbers are going to be substantially better than underclassmen’s.
This is why Hield’s AST% and A/TO and all of the rest are concerning. Hield really, really sucks at passing the ball. His vision is awful and his numbers haven’t improved with him holding the ball more. This really kills his value as a penetrator in the NBA. Even though he’s improved his handle and has added some moves to get by people, he still cannot be trusted with the ball in his hands because he can’t pass. McClellan at least avoids turning the ball over.
Brogdon also deserves a mention for not being much of a passer, but he is a competent enough ball mover. Baker is a good passer but his inability to threaten teams at the rim means that his passing ability won’t be very relevant in the NBA.
LeVert and Valentine pass like PGs, and even by the standards of seniors are extremely capable with the ball in their hands.
For the underclassmen, some guys have it and some don’t. Top three can pass, bottom three cannot and do not. That’s bad news for Murray – his penetration was already unimpressive, now it turns out that all the talk about being a potential PG is clearly 100% bull. While McCaw is running on instincts and Whitehead is passing mostly as a function of holding the ball so much, Hamilton is a real PG- like guy with great vision due to his height.
Defense
The guys who are staying in school usually do not have great potential on defense – if they had the elite athleticism they’d have left for the draft earlier. But that doesn’t mean that our underclassmen are any good at defense either.
Valentine’s steal rate is really disappointing in light of his BBIQ and unusual length, indicating to me that he really is that slow, but he rates as a net-positive defender on the strength of his rebounding. Baker and LeVert show up as actually decent defenders on their own merits – Baker in part due to his length and LeVert in part due to his height and versatility. Gbinije, Hield and Brogdon all rate as poor defenders, but McClellan is a cut below them. His short arms no doubt help, but that Net DRtg is the mark of someone who probably isn’t trying hard.
Hamilton is the only guy here who look to be a legitimate impact defender. Although he is in fact a bit slow and has poor length, he was actually a good man defender and dominates the defensive glass like a top-notch center. I mean he’s really freakish on the glass. McCaw at least shows good awareness and has potential. Whitehead’s shot-blocking is a mystery in light of his horrendous finishing at the rim. Beasley, Richardson and Murray all basically suck, and there is no reason to expect them to become good.
Overall
I'm going to keep it short for now, simply because I'm running out of steam writing these all up. I figure that you're smart enough to be able to draw conclusions about these guys anyways, but I'll try to expand and profile each guy like I did for the other positions.
LeVert was a beast but it won’t matter if he can’t stay on the court. McClellan was fantastic but is a black hole and needs to play defense if he wants a shot in the league. Hield brings nothing but jump shooting and should not be drafted on the assumption that he can develop into anything but a shooter. Valentine’s doesn’t create for himself and has Bradon Roy’s knees, but for two years he could be a decently valuable spot-up shooter and rebounder. Baker can be a 3 and D guy. Brogdon’s defense looks overrated but he is the only guy who isn’t injured who can shoot and get to the rim. Gbinije doesn’t really bring enough to the table to get drafted IMO.
McCaw is oozing potential and absurdly underrated as a Swiss army knife/glue guy. Beasley and Murray are just shooters, but Murray is as a better shooter. If Hamilton can develop a threating 3 point shot then he could be a better, healthy version of Valentine, but until he does he can’t get on the court. Whitehead is cool if you want a chucker. Richardson is an abomination who doesn’t deserve to be drafted, not even with the 60th pick.