Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype?

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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#141 » by doordoor123 » Sat Mar 3, 2018 7:22 pm

GimmeDat wrote:
cksdayoff wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:For instance, I never had Monk that high, I remember there was a period when he was on fire and people and sites had him at like 3-4 and I kept him around 6-8, but when he was quieter I didn't drop him beyond there. I think I overvalued his production as opposed to tools. Mitchell did more with his athleticism, much better defender, etc. I also think I overvalue youth at times, sometimes I'm a bit scared of falling in love with the slightly older guy, especially when they've made a big jump between college seasons and I'm scared it's a flash in the pan.

And I still have hope for Monk, I don't think he's been in a great situation, I think he should definitely be getting minutes instead of MCW, they need to commit to developing him if they're going to keep him, he's got all the tools to be a shot creator/maker at this level. As for Mitchell, I don't see PG in his future, maybe as a secondary position but not full time.


not a fan of monk. the guy is one dimensional, he's jamal crawford without the handles. i had him in the top 10, but no where near the top 5.


Oh yeah, I had him further back than that as well, like I think a lot of people did. But he should still be a quality shot maker at the NBA level, it's a pity he's had such a quiet rookie season. He's shown a few flashes.


I still haven’t given up on him. He’s just not strong at all, he’s undersized and he’s not a good defender. He might be a bench scorer, but I don’t see why he can’t eventually get better. He’s still really young.
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#142 » by cksdayoff » Sat Mar 3, 2018 11:37 pm

doordoor123 wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:
cksdayoff wrote:
not a fan of monk. the guy is one dimensional, he's jamal crawford without the handles. i had him in the top 10, but no where near the top 5.


Oh yeah, I had him further back than that as well, like I think a lot of people did. But he should still be a quality shot maker at the NBA level, it's a pity he's had such a quiet rookie season. He's shown a few flashes.


I still haven’t given up on him. He’s just not strong at all, he’s undersized and he’s not a good defender. He might be a bench scorer, but I don’t see why he can’t eventually get better. He’s still really young.


he's definitely gonna get better, but like you said, he's a bench scorer.
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#143 » by King Ken » Tue Sep 3, 2019 4:17 am

The biggest thing people missed on Donovan Mitchell was his high end 3pt variance and his high volume on shooting three which per36 which just a tad less than Klay as a Junior at Washington St at 7.4 per game. Mitchell was shooting every type of three pointer. Because he shoot an high end three point variance which does translate as we seen with Trae Young and Luka Doncic and he shot 80% from the FT line. Mitchell shooting marks should have made him a no brainer top 3-5 pick. His percentages may look low but over 50% of his shots were threes. In the modern NBA, that's critical to efficient marks which college doesn't value and his projected 3pt percentage for his career was 37.7% as a soph which is an exceptional mark, especially for a Soph. For example, a rare shooter like Klay Thompson mark was 38.8%.

It's fair to say Cam Reddish and Tyler Herro is being severely underrated as both of them have high end variance in terms of 3 pointers. Garland from the small sample size seems to have that as well. I've seen the workout tapes and I've seen the same things. High end variance on three pointers is the most translatable valuable skill that a NBA prospect can have in the modern NBA.

;t=100s
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#144 » by King Ken » Tue Sep 3, 2019 4:29 am

doordoor123 wrote:
doordoor123 wrote:I think if there's a sleeper in this draft, he's it. I have no idea where he's going to go in th draft, but he does everything well. He can play off ball, handle a little, has complicated moves to get around defenders, plays off ball, has a beautiful arc to his shot, defends, has a soft touch, is a good passer, finishes with contact, can dunk and I think his speed is sneakily underrated. He doesn't have a great first step, but he's a tricky player to stay in front of because he's so comfortable around the 3 point line. He seems to be quicker on fast breaks than in the lane. I don't think he has PG speed, but he's pretty quick. He's a back up handler or starting SG. Would be amazing for a team like Houston.


Interesting to see this. We need to watch how quick players are in the fast break to see how quick they’ll be in the lane in the NBA. That’s how Mitchell got so such quicker, the lanes are clogged in college. Trae Young is going to be better in the NBA and I have no doubt.

What's funny about this post doordoor is by the end of the college season, you were negative on Young. Strange seeing this posts after reviewing so many posts of yours in the Trae Young thread. I've done it before as well with Tyler Herro. Clyde loved Herro, I just couldn't get past the measurements till I watched the film and was like ****! This guy can go. Clyde, you got one. You should have trusted your first instincts on Young. He is a monster in transition and knifing through the defense in the half court.
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#145 » by King Ken » Tue Sep 3, 2019 4:40 am

GimmeDat wrote:I cringe at my opening 'reminds me of E'Twaun Moore' opening post in this thread, but I understand what I saw in that, and I do really value Moore as a player. Really multi-positional, multi-skilled, can pass, spot up, etc.

I did defend him in subsequent posts though, I really warmed to his dynamism athletically. I didn't expect him to be so good attacking the hoop and facilitating, he's done great on those areas, and of course while he looked like a talented scorer, no one could predict him being this insanely good so early.

I liked him a lot, and a lot of people leading up to the draft liked him a lot, I remember, but I wasn't willing to give him the benefit of the doubt over some of the bigger names even though I probably saw more in him. I think that's my lesson with Mitchell, is to not get caught up in the reputation of some of the bigger guys and look at things more objectively.

For instance, I never had Monk that high, I remember there was a period when he was on fire and people and sites had him at like 3-4 and I kept him around 6-8, but when he was quieter I didn't drop him beyond there. I think I overvalued his production as opposed to tools. Mitchell did more with his athleticism, much better defender, etc. I also think I overvalue youth at times, sometimes I'm a bit scared of falling in love with the slightly older guy, especially when they've made a big jump between college seasons and I'm scared it's a flash in the pan.

And I still have hope for Monk, I don't think he's been in a great situation, I think he should definitely be getting minutes instead of MCW, they need to commit to developing him if they're going to keep him, he's got all the tools to be a shot creator/maker at this level. As for Mitchell, I don't see PG in his future, maybe as a secondary position but not full time.

The biggest mistake we make is trying to compare a NBA player with the same prototype to a college player. I always, and I mean ALWAYS look at college players compared to other college/HS/Euroleague prospects who are now in the NBA. It makes life a lot easier and my evaluations stopped sucking ass once I did it. I also stopped looking for a full player to compare a player to.

For example, parts of Ja Morant's game reminds me a lot of Brandon Jennings when I watched him in Italy. That doesn't mean he will be Jennings or that he will be Westbrook who I also compared him to or physically like Fox who I also used, or others like Trae Young for example. It's just a similarity score. At the end of the day, Ja's gonna be Ja.

I read the entire thread and the biggest thing you guys missed on was his high end 3pt variance especially for an off ball player. That has translated to the NBA and has been king in the modern NBA. If you didn't value it because he didn't do it enough, you are a fool. This is college basketball. If dudes are showing it once or twice, it's enough to take note, especially if it looked smooth and fluid. This isn't the NBA. Pro moves aren't super effective on this level as it is in the NBA.

I think another underrated thing is situations. I don't like Mitchell in Detroit. I felt they would have wasted him. Utah was a very good situation. They needed scoring and Mitchell can provide it without killing the offense with mistakes and inefficiency. Monk didn't go to the best of situations of course but he wasn't really gonna be more than a backup scorer in the mold of Lou Williams. The hope was that he is this modern Monta Ellis but he really couldn't shoot that well and Monta/Lou was a FT drawing machine which helps them and most important, those two played in eras were efficiency just wasn't as valued. For Monk to be effective, he would have needed to be a high end playmaker which he wasn't. He like Okafor was a very good prospect but for a different era.
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#146 » by The-Power » Wed Sep 4, 2019 3:11 pm

King Ken wrote:I read the entire thread and the biggest thing you guys missed on was his high end 3pt variance especially for an off ball player. That has translated to the NBA and has been king in the modern NBA. If you didn't value it because he didn't do it enough, you are a fool. This is college basketball. If dudes are showing it once or twice, it's enough to take note, especially if it looked smooth and fluid.

You seem to have missed that as well because this is what you wrote in Nov. 2017:

King Ken wrote:Not on tape he wasn't. He wasn't doing this at Louisville. I've heard he was extremely tough on open court ball but so was Josh Selby. He simply translated better than expected. It happens.

Monk was an excellent offensive scorer and had some combo potential but you knew his best role right away was combo 6th man. Mitchell was someone you felt could be a lesser Avery Bradley with better ball handling but no, he's been that and much more on offense.

It's easy to say someone is a perfect fit once they are doing it in the NBA but he wasn't looking like this at UL.
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#147 » by King Ken » Wed Sep 4, 2019 6:12 pm

The-Power wrote:
King Ken wrote:I read the entire thread and the biggest thing you guys missed on was his high end 3pt variance especially for an off ball player. That has translated to the NBA and has been king in the modern NBA. If you didn't value it because he didn't do it enough, you are a fool. This is college basketball. If dudes are showing it once or twice, it's enough to take note, especially if it looked smooth and fluid.

You seem to have missed that as well because this is what you wrote in Nov. 2017:

King Ken wrote:Not on tape he wasn't. He wasn't doing this at Louisville. I've heard he was extremely tough on open court ball but so was Josh Selby. He simply translated better than expected. It happens.

Monk was an excellent offensive scorer and had some combo potential but you knew his best role right away was combo 6th man. Mitchell was someone you felt could be a lesser Avery Bradley with better ball handling but no, he's been that and much more on offense.

It's easy to say someone is a perfect fit once they are doing it in the NBA but he wasn't looking like this at UL.

I was wrong even after the fact. Why? Because I didn't realize high end 3pt variance was a big deal even at the time. I didn't know it was why Mitchell translated so well at the time. I was one of those guys who thought he just improved in the offseason when in reality, he was always doing it. It just that it works better in the NBA than it does in college by a mile.

I was late to the party. I really didn't notice it till my own team had a high end 3pt variance player and it became crystal clear what was translating. It's why Trae who has a set shot as well as he shot from the hip and Luka who has a slow shooting release translated so well from three when I was more lower on both instantly translating shooting 3s due to their form or quickness of their release.
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#148 » by Ruzious » Thu Sep 5, 2019 10:25 pm

King Ken wrote:The biggest thing people missed on Donovan Mitchell was his high end 3pt variance and his high volume on shooting three which per36 which just a tad less than Klay as a Junior at Washington St at 7.4 per game. Mitchell was shooting every type of three pointer. Because he shoot an high end three point variance which does translate as we seen with Trae Young and Luka Doncic and he shot 80% from the FT line. Mitchell shooting marks should have made him a no brainer top 3-5 pick. His percentages may look low but over 50% of his shots were threes. In the modern NBA, that's critical to efficient marks which college doesn't value and his projected 3pt percentage for his career was 37.7% as a soph which is an exceptional mark, especially for a Soph. For example, a rare shooter like Klay Thompson mark was 38.8%.

It's fair to say Cam Reddish and Tyler Herro is being severely underrated as both of them have high end variance in terms of 3 pointers. Garland from the small sample size seems to have that as well. I've seen the workout tapes and I've seen the same things. High end variance on three pointers is the most translatable valuable skill that a NBA prospect can have in the modern NBA.

;t=100s

Interesting stuff that I need to look into. Gotta admit - if Reddish really does become an efficient scorer in the NBA, I'll need to reconsider all my preconceptions in evaluating players - and eat crow.
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#149 » by GreatWhiteStiff » Mon Sep 9, 2019 6:41 am

Dumb question perhaps but what is high level three point varaince that you speak of King Ken? Can you explain it to a noob who hasn't heard of this concept before?
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#150 » by King Ken » Mon Sep 9, 2019 1:59 pm

GreatWhiteStiff wrote:Dumb question perhaps but what is high level three point varaince that you speak of King Ken? Can you explain it to a noob who hasn't heard of this concept before?

The ability to get your 3pt shot off with a lot of skill.

Hesi
Stepback 3
Harden Stepback which is becoming the choice of favor with the bigger guys like him and Doncic
One dribble pullup which is the favor of longer rangy guys
Two dribble pull up
Transition 3
Size up 3
Half spin 3
Triple threat into a 3

These are guys who are elite at creating space for shooting threes. Guys like Durant, Dame, Kyrie, Curry, and Harden have mastered this and young guys like Luka, Trae, Tyler Herro, D. Mitchell and Cam are coming into the NBA already at an high level at this skill. This involves great footwork, more range than the average, at least very good agility for position and on pretty good natural on ball skills.

It's really not teachable on average. Guys I've seen kinda had it in their bag or just never had it.

We must not confuse them with movement players who excel at shooting like Redick, Korver, Klay, D. Green, Reggie Miller and guys like that.

Or spot up specialists like Kevin H, KAT, Leonard, Harris with the Nets, R. Horry, Rick Fox, Ryan Anderson, etc.
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#151 » by clyde21 » Mon Sep 9, 2019 4:05 pm

GreatWhiteStiff wrote:Dumb question perhaps but what is high level three point varaince that you speak of King Ken? Can you explain it to a noob who hasn't heard of this concept before?


types of shots, aka shot versatility, can shoot in different ways and can get his shot off from different angles/platforms

this is what made Herro insanely underrated around this board.
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#152 » by King Ken » Mon Sep 9, 2019 4:16 pm

clyde21 wrote:
GreatWhiteStiff wrote:Dumb question perhaps but what is high level three point varaince that you speak of King Ken? Can you explain it to a noob who hasn't heard of this concept before?


types of shots, aka shot versatility, can shoot in different ways and can get his shot off from different angles/platforms

this is what made Herro insanely underrated around this board.

100%
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#153 » by mattg » Mon Sep 9, 2019 4:30 pm

clyde21 wrote:
GreatWhiteStiff wrote:Dumb question perhaps but what is high level three point varaince that you speak of King Ken? Can you explain it to a noob who hasn't heard of this concept before?


types of shots, aka shot versatility, can shoot in different ways and can get his shot off from different angles/platforms

this is what made Herro insanely underrated around this board.

Tried to tell everyone
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#154 » by clyde21 » Mon Sep 9, 2019 4:38 pm

mattg wrote:
clyde21 wrote:
GreatWhiteStiff wrote:Dumb question perhaps but what is high level three point varaince that you speak of King Ken? Can you explain it to a noob who hasn't heard of this concept before?


types of shots, aka shot versatility, can shoot in different ways and can get his shot off from different angles/platforms

this is what made Herro insanely underrated around this board.

Tried to tell everyone


but his wingspan
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Re: Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype? 

Post#155 » by King Ken » Mon Sep 9, 2019 7:52 pm

clyde21 wrote:
mattg wrote:
clyde21 wrote:
types of shots, aka shot versatility, can shoot in different ways and can get his shot off from different angles/platforms

this is what made Herro insanely underrated around this board.

Tried to tell everyone


but his wingspan

I was one of them for a long time :banghead:

It wasn't till the offseason, I watched a number of UK flim in a play by play way and was like OMG, this kid got some sauce. By the draft, I properly raised his value

I had him as a mid 2nd rounder. Both him and P.J. but after my scouting notes on play by play watch, I moved both up to lottery/mid 1st range

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