Sindarius Thornwell

[doordoor123]

I'd be scared drafting this guy. Smacks of an outlier senior season after 3 rather mediocre ones. His 3pt sample size this season is not very large.

he has improved from 3 but what he has gotten is basically space to operate and that has helped a ton to get FTs, before they couldn't use his strength to play him in a power position the same way.
I dont think he projects as a guy that creates much, so I don't care too much for the outlier Senior season, even if he is just an avg shooter having a versatile wing that can legit guard 1 through 4, 1 and 4 are a bit more high variance but he can get those assignments in a pinch, and can shoot some, plus make the extra pass and play hard, it's a solid enough piece that is worth a 1st round selection.

He's not a good shooter. His shot is really flat and he takes his threes right at the line (2 pointer in the NBA). If anything he's a defensive player that hustles. He's actually similar to Tony Allen in that sense (similar body and wingspan too), but Tony Allen is pretty unique. It's hard to say anyone will be that.

[EvanZ]

2-pt jumpers are also a strong indicator of success for guards because it means they could get in the lane. Look what it did for Yogi Ferrell.

Um, Yogi Ferrell shot 83% on free throws and 40% on 3's in his college career. I don't think anyone was questioning that he could shoot. Although maybe that's not the point you were trying to make, could be I'm not understanding.

[Dr Positivity]

He rates top 10 in my model. I can see where some of the concerns are upside wise but his stats are too good

[EvanZ]

He rates top 10 in my model. I can see where some of the concerns are upside wise but his stats are too good

Now I'm chasing you down from APBR.

Does your model take into account his extremely mediocre first 3 years? I mean he shot 50% TS his first 3 seasons, and 59% TS this season. You don't see that as a possible outlier problem?

He took about the same number of 3PA this season as last (~140). Last year he hits 46. This year 56. To me that is a pretty clear case of being just one outlier good season.

More evidence of sample size effect is that he shot 36% on 3's in conference play and 44% out of conference. Maybe he does a bunch of other things really well, I don't know. But I definitely wouldn't hold my breath on his shooting ability.

[doordoor123]

2-pt jumpers are also a strong indicator of success for guards because it means they could get in the lane. Look what it did for Yogi Ferrell.

Um, Yogi Ferrell shot 83% on free throws and 40% on 3's in his college career. I don't think anyone was questioning that he could shoot. Although maybe that's not the point you were trying to make, could be I'm not understanding.

I'm saying he's translating because he can get into the lane and make mid-range shots. If he was undersized and could only shoot he wouldn't be in the NBA. Mid-range shots often make guards (especially smaller ones) successful. It means you can get into the lane and put up points without going right to the basket.

[Dr Positivity]

He rates top 10 in my model. I can see where some of the concerns are upside wise but his stats are too good

Now I'm chasing you down from APBR.

Does your model take into account his extremely mediocre first 3 years? I mean he shot 50% TS his first 3 seasons, and 59% TS this season. You don't see that as a possible outlier problem?

He took about the same number of 3PA this season as last (~140). Last year he hits 46. This year 56. To me that is a pretty clear case of being just one outlier good season.

More evidence of sample size effect is that he shot 36% on 3's in conference play and 44% out of conference. Maybe he does a bunch of other things really well, I don't know. But I definitely wouldn't hold my breath on his shooting ability.

Copying my post from APBR

I adjust for previous years in scoring but not the other categories. So Thornwell being mediocre earlier in his career as a scorer hurts him, but overall it's possible my model isn't scared enough of his major recent leap across the board. His shooting rates as really good because of the 83% FT (on a high volume of FTAs as well notably) in addition to the 39% 3pt but it's possible that he jumped in an outlier way that's not accounted for as well. The reason I do things that way is it led to better results in previous drafts for me so it could end up being the right call with Thornwell, but we'll see. I follow a guy on twitter @big_wafe who's draft statistical work I like and he told me he's a lot lower on Thornwell than I am because he adjusts for earlier seasons more

[No-Man]

2-pt jumpers are also a strong indicator of success for guards because it means they could get in the lane. Look what it did for Yogi Ferrell.

Um, Yogi Ferrell shot 83% on free throws and 40% on 3's in his college career. I don't think anyone was questioning that he could shoot. Although maybe that's not the point you were trying to make, could be I'm not understanding.

I'm saying he's translating because he can get into the lane.

he actually can't against real athletes, neither get his shot off-the-dribble, that isnt gonna translate all that well

[tester551]

Copying my post from APBR

I adjust for previous years in scoring but not the other categories. So Thornwell being mediocre earlier in his career as a scorer hurts him, but overall it's possible my model isn't scared enough of his major recent leap across the board. His shooting rates as really good because of the 83% FT (on a high volume of FTAs as well notably) in addition to the 39% 3pt but it's possible that he jumped in an outlier way that's not accounted for as well. The reason I do things that way is it led to better results in previous drafts for me so it could end up being the right call with Thornwell, but we'll see. I follow a guy on twitter @big_wafe who's draft statistical work I like and he told me he's a lot lower on Thornwell than I am because he adjusts for earlier seasons more

What's this APBR?

[CptCrunch]

Copying my post from APBR

I adjust for previous years in scoring but not the other categories. So Thornwell being mediocre earlier in his career as a scorer hurts him, but overall it's possible my model isn't scared enough of his major recent leap across the board. His shooting rates as really good because of the 83% FT (on a high volume of FTAs as well notably) in addition to the 39% 3pt but it's possible that he jumped in an outlier way that's not accounted for as well. The reason I do things that way is it led to better results in previous drafts for me so it could end up being the right call with Thornwell, but we'll see. I follow a guy on twitter @big_wafe who's draft statistical work I like and he told me he's a lot lower on Thornwell than I am because he adjusts for earlier seasons more

What's this APBR?

Just a bball statistical analysis forum. Mostly filled with garbage/spam/non-sense. Some knowledgeable people who know what they are doing when it comes to statistics.

http://www.apbr.org/forum/

[EvanZ]

Copying my post from APBR

I adjust for previous years in scoring but not the other categories. So Thornwell being mediocre earlier in his career as a scorer hurts him, but overall it's possible my model isn't scared enough of his major recent leap across the board. His shooting rates as really good because of the 83% FT (on a high volume of FTAs as well notably) in addition to the 39% 3pt but it's possible that he jumped in an outlier way that's not accounted for as well. The reason I do things that way is it led to better results in previous drafts for me so it could end up being the right call with Thornwell, but we'll see. I follow a guy on twitter @big_wafe who's draft statistical work I like and he told me he's a lot lower on Thornwell than I am because he adjusts for earlier seasons more

What's this APBR?

Back in the day a lot of the analytics "forefathers" gathered there, guys like Dean Oliver, John Hollinger, Steve Ilardi, and Kevin Pelton. Most of these guys have been picked off by publications or teams over the years.

[DrCoach]

You take him or Hart from Villanova?

[doordoor123]

Um, Yogi Ferrell shot 83% on free throws and 40% on 3's in his college career. I don't think anyone was questioning that he could shoot. Although maybe that's not the point you were trying to make, could be I'm not understanding.

I'm saying he's translating because he can get into the lane.

he actually can't against real athletes, neither get his shot off-the-dribble, that isnt gonna translate all that well

Real athletes in terms of top 10 point guard defenders, then yeah. Otherwise he has been quick off the PnR.

[Upperclass]

You take him or Hart from Villanova?

I'm not sure that Hart translates. He has better physical tools i *think*, but he's to me.. a hustle player and possible end of bench guy. I think Thornwell could endup as a sniper at the 2. A very good catch & shoot guy, who can also defend his position. Hart definitely gets drafted before Thornwell though in this draft.

With his frame and handle, I also wonder if some team will want to use him in a role thats similar to Draymond. Kid seems to have a pretty strong situational IQ

[freewhitemoon]

reminds me of Wesley matthews

[Cosmic_Backlash]

Anyone else think Sindarius is going to shoot up the mocks the closer we get to the draft? DX still has him at 49, but I don't see how he doesn't doesn't become at least a late first/early 2nd pick by the time the draft comes around.

He had a 30 PER, 16 BPM, TrueShooting of 60%, big frame 6'5" with a 6'9" wingspan, averaged 3+ on Steals/Blocks, and 36 points per 100 possessions.

Everything about him screams NBA ready. He nearly matched the offensive production of Buddy last year while being an elite 2 way player. I rarely see his name come up in most mocks, but he's got the stats, physical ability, and motor to play at the next level. At worst I see him as a solid 3D player.

[PerkinsFor3]

OT just a bit, but this guy's name sounds like it is off of Key & Peele.

Harry Potter character?

[PLO]

Interesting thread. His NBA career looks to be over. Apologies if reviving the necro is not allowed.

[jman3134]

Amazing the Josh Hart hate. Made 0 sense then or now. Guy is such a gamer.

[The_Hater]

Interesting thread. His NBA career looks to be over. Apologies if reviving the necro is not allowed.

A lot of people liked Thornwell because of his great college numbers his final year and he did indeed play quite well, but those same people ignored that he was already 23 years old at the time and he wasn’t really even considered a prospect at age 22. He appeared to me that he was a man amongst boys with a more limited upside. But it’s always dangerous to put too much stock in the NCAA tournament too. Carson Edwards anyone?