1# Pick

[TM_]

1) What do you view as an average 1# pick? What can one realistically expect?

2) Assuming Fultz is picked first, do you think think he is better than the average first pick?

[Duke4life831]

If you keep it to just the last 10 drafts and compare him to the other prospects that went number 1, I think hes below average. I got him as the 4th best PG coming out of college behind Rose, Kyrie and Wall. Hes not on the same level of a prospect as AD or Blake. I know its hard to say but Greg Oden was a freak prospect coming out as well. Then you have a guy like KAT that by the time the draft came around he was looked at as an elite prospect as well. So that leaves Simmons, Bennett, Wiggins and Fultz.

So if we are comparing him to the last 10 drafts (11 counting Fultz), I think Fultz is the 8th best #1 pick, with a slight edge over Simmons and Wiggins and a huge huge gap to Bennett. This draft isnt great because of having a freak talent like an AD in it, its great because of the how many guys are really really good prospects and how deep the 1st round goes.

[LloydFree]

1) What do you view as an average 1# pick? What can one realistically expect?

2) Assuming Fultz is picked first, do you think think he is better than the average first pick?

I think he'd be a little below average. He's not on the Franchise level, like Shaq, Duncan, LeBron or Davis. He's not on the no-doubt future multiple time All-star level like Webber, Iverson, Howard, Wall or Towns. This draft was deep at the top, but there was nobody available that was obviously going to change the fortune of a franchise.

[Upperclass]

He'd be 9th in the past ten drafts in front of Bennett.

[GimmeDat]

I think it's super hard to compare to previous #1's - they're either established stars or guys we don't know the ceiling of yet. For the former group, I think the knowledge of what they became influences our memory of them as prospects. Oh yeah, and there's also Anthony Bennett.

The one thing I would say is that he's by no means a 'weak' #1 pick.

[Mulhollanddrive]

I think pro careers affect how this is ranked.

Towns was probably riskier than Fultz.

[No-Man]

Fultz is about average I'd say for a 1st pick, which means a multiple All Star and a franchise player for a team that might not be top5 in the league.

[nolang1]

MVP+DPOY potential
Oden
Davis
-----
MVP potential
Towns
Fultz
Rose
Griffin
Wall
-----
All-Star potential
Wiggins
Irving
Simmons
-----
bust potential
Bennett

Fultz can be 90+ percent as athletic as Wall/Rose while being 90+ percent as good at shooting off the dribble as Curry. It's a rare combination.

[CptCrunch]

MVP+DPOY potential
Oden
Davis
-----
MVP potential
Towns
Fultz
Rose
Griffin
Wall
-----
All-Star potential
Wiggins
Irving
Simmons
-----
bust potential
Bennett

Fultz can be 90+ percent as athletic as Wall/Rose while being 90+ percent as good at shooting off the dribble as Curry. It's a rare combination.

Revisionist history warning. Actual list based on pre-draft. Towns hype is out of control. Towns was not a great prospect. Wiggins was supposed to be the best thing since sliced bread.

Guaranteed superstar
Oden
Davis

Good All-Star
Wiggins
Rose
Griffin

All-Star
Fultz
Wall
Towns
Simmons
Irving

Bennett tier, keep in mind this guy was mocked 3-8, then Cavs reached for him.
Bennett

[nolang1]

MVP+DPOY potential
Oden
Davis
-----
MVP potential
Towns
Fultz
Rose
Griffin
Wall
-----
All-Star potential
Wiggins
Irving
Simmons
-----
bust potential
Bennett

Fultz can be 90+ percent as athletic as Wall/Rose while being 90+ percent as good at shooting off the dribble as Curry. It's a rare combination.

Revisionist history warning. Actual list based on pre-draft. Towns hype is out of control. Towns was not a great prospect. Wiggins was supposed to be the best thing since sliced bread.

Guaranteed superstar
Oden
Davis

Good All-Star
Wiggins
Rose
Griffin

All-Star
Fultz
Wall
Towns
Simmons
Irving

Bennett tier, keep in mind this guy was mocked 3-8, then Cavs reached for him.
Bennett

Yeah, you're right, the guy who was the best player as a freshman on a team that started 40-0 was not a great prospect. Oh, Towns posted the highest box plus-minus and PER out of any major conference freshman not named Anthony Davis? That's okay, I'm a simpleton who only understands counting stats.

I thought Wiggins would be have a Carmelo type of overall impact - worse offensively, better defensively. That obviously hasn't been the case. I'm sorry if you were foolish enough to think he was the next LeBron, but that has no bearing on what my personal thoughts were (you missed the part in the OP that said "what do you view" btw) . If I wanted to be revisionist I'd have put him behind Kyrie and Simmons at least.

Wiggins was obviously more raw than every player on the list besides Bennett He wasn't going to be the number one pick until it became clear Embiid was going to miss his rookie season, and even then 'Wiggins or Parker?' was a debate. Everyone I listed above Wiggins (with the exception of Oden, who got selected ahead of a player who would have gone #1 any year since then) had clearly put more distance between themselves and the rest of the class.

[Prez]

Out of the last 15 #1 picks, 11/15 either were all-stars or will in my opinion be all-stars down the road (KAT, Wiggins, Simmons). About 7 of them are/were superstar caliber talents. And of the 4 that didn't make it, Oden definitely looked the part of a future all-star before injuries wrecked him, and prime healthy Bogut was an awesome player.

I'd say the average of all of those 15 guys is somewhere around mid-all star level, so maybe Paul George level. Not quite a top tier MVP like Curry/LeBron but better than the low level stars like Derozan/Thomas.

With how Fultz has looked in college, I'd say he's right around that average, so for me I'd expect him to be mid level star. Something like top 10-14, in that PG13/Butler/Cousins range.

[CptCrunch]

MVP+DPOY potential
Oden
Davis
-----
MVP potential
Towns
Fultz
Rose
Griffin
Wall
-----
All-Star potential
Wiggins
Irving
Simmons
-----
bust potential
Bennett

Fultz can be 90+ percent as athletic as Wall/Rose while being 90+ percent as good at shooting off the dribble as Curry. It's a rare combination.

Revisionist history warning. Actual list based on pre-draft. Towns hype is out of control. Towns was not a great prospect. Wiggins was supposed to be the best thing since sliced bread.

Guaranteed superstar
Oden
Davis

Good All-Star
Wiggins
Rose
Griffin

All-Star
Fultz
Wall
Towns
Simmons
Irving

Bennett tier, keep in mind this guy was mocked 3-8, then Cavs reached for him.
Bennett

Yeah, you're right, the guy who was the best player as a freshman on a team that started 40-0 was not a great prospect. Oh, Towns posted the highest box plus-minus and PER out of any major conference freshman not named Anthony Davis? That's okay, I'm a simpleton who only understands counting stats.

I thought Wiggins would be have a Carmelo type of overall impact - worse offensively, better defensively. That obviously hasn't been the case. I'm sorry if you were foolish enough to think he was the next LeBron, but that has no bearing on what my personal thoughts were (you missed the part in the OP that said "what do you view" btw) . If I wanted to be revisionist I'd have put him behind Kyrie and Simmons at least.

Wiggins was obviously more raw than every player on the list besides Bennett He wasn't going to be the number one pick until it became clear Embiid was going to miss his rookie season, and even then 'Wiggins or Parker?' was a debate. Everyone I listed above Wiggins (with the exception of Oden, who got selected ahead of a player who would have gone #1 any year since then) had clearly put more distance between themselves and the rest of the class.

Your memory was revised by your bias and Towns' NBA play. Towns was NOT a great prospect compared to other #1 picks, way worse than Wiggins as a prospect.

[nolang1]

Your memory was revised by your bias and Towns' NBA play. Towns was NOT a great prospect compared to other #1 picks, way worse than Wiggins as a prospect.

I was more excited about the Wolves getting the #1 pick in 2015 than I was about them getting Wiggins, but thanks for continually trying to tell me what my own memories were. If I were to be revisionist towards Towns, I'd have put him ahead of Davis and Oden. I expected KAT to average 14 and 10 on efficient shooting his rookie year, and he exceeded that.

If you didn't think Towns was a substantially above-average #1 pick you were just looking at basic per-game stats. Towns scored more points per 40 minutes than AD and Wall and nearly as many as Wiggins and Rose, all while being extremely efficient offensively and anchoring the best defense in college basketball.

[The_Hater]

He'd be 9th in the past ten drafts in front of Bennett.

He'd almost certainly be ahead of Irving too, Kyrie was a huge question mark with his college injuries.

He'd be behind Oden, Davis, Wall amd likely Simmons. Those were the so-called cant miss top picks. He'd fit somewhere in the Griffin, Towns, Wiggins, Rose group who all looked like excellent prospects but none were considered can't miss superstars.

[The_Hater]

Your memory was revised by your bias and Towns' NBA play. Towns was NOT a great prospect compared to other #1 picks, way worse than Wiggins as a prospect.

I was more excited about the Wolves getting the #1 pick in 2015 than I was about them getting Wiggins, but thanks for continually trying to tell me what my own memories were. If I were to be revisionist towards Towns, I'd have put him ahead of Davis and Oden. I expected KAT to average 14 and 10 on efficient shooting his rookie year, and he exceeded that.

Towns is a better NBA player than Oden and might eventually surpass Davis but he definitely wasn't considered a better prospect than either prior to being drafted. There was a serious Towns\Okafor debate going on for most of the college season and Towns has definitely exceeded expectations each of his first two NBA seasons.

[nolang1]

Towns is a better NBA player than Oden and might eventually surpass Davis but he definitely wasn't considered a better prospect than either prior to being drafted. There was a serious Towns\Okafor debate going on for most of the college season and Towns has definitely exceeded expectations each of his first two NBA seasons.

If you consider those serious, Rose/Beasley and Irving/Derrick Williams were much more so. Hell, I'd consider Simmons/Ingram to be a more serious debate considering there were multiple teams on draft day that would've chosen Ingram #1 when the same couldn't have been said for Okafor (or Russell) over Towns.

I don't evaluate players based on how many points per game I think they'll score, so it's somewhat ironic that because Towns has overachieved on offense and underachieved on defense relative to my expectations, I'm now accused of revisionist history. I fully expected Towns as a rookie to score fewer points per game than Okafor (didn't happen) while putting together a historic season for his age based on advanced metrics (did happen). And when you consider just how rare it is for a player that young to rank as an above-average NBA player as a rookie, it's not too crazy to consider Towns a better prospect than players like Wiggins or Rose.

[CptCrunch]

Towns is a better NBA player than Oden and might eventually surpass Davis but he definitely wasn't considered a better prospect than either prior to being drafted. There was a serious Towns\Okafor debate going on for most of the college season and Towns has definitely exceeded expectations each of his first two NBA seasons.

If you consider those serious, Rose/Beasley and Irving/Derrick Williams were much more so. Hell, I'd consider Simmons/Ingram to be a more serious debate considering there were multiple teams on draft day that would've chosen Ingram #1 when the same couldn't have been said for Okafor (or Russell) over Towns.

I don't evaluate players based on how many points per game I think they'll score, so it's somewhat ironic that because Towns has overachieved on offense and underachieved on defense relative to my expectations, I'm now accused of revisionist history. I fully expected Towns as a rookie to score fewer points per game than Okafor (didn't happen) while putting together a historic season for his age based on advanced metrics (did happen). And when you consider just how rare it is for a player that young to rank as an above-average NBA player as a rookie, it's not too crazy to consider Towns a better prospect than players like Wiggins or Rose.

> just how rare it is for a player that young to rank as an above-average NBA player as a rookie, it's not too crazy to consider Towns a better prospect than players like Wiggins or Rose.

Proof from horse's mouth. Prospect status is not determined by NBA performance. And no Towns has had no historic seasons. He is by far the worst defensive center in the league. His synergy defensive stats and any defensive RAPM/RPM metric are among the worst in the league.

[cksdayoff]

Fultz doesn't have the athleticism of an elite guard prospect imo. what he does have is the potential to be an elite level player at the rim, midrange and behind the 3 point line. his facilitating skills are underrated too. his offensive skillset is so advanced for an 18 year old.

spacing was a big problem for his team yet he still scored in a variety of ways. he still attacked the basket even though there were 3 or 4 defenders in the paint yet he was still able to get to the rim.

[nolang1]

Towns is a better NBA player than Oden and might eventually surpass Davis but he definitely wasn't considered a better prospect than either prior to being drafted. There was a serious Towns\Okafor debate going on for most of the college season and Towns has definitely exceeded expectations each of his first two NBA seasons.

If you consider those serious, Rose/Beasley and Irving/Derrick Williams were much more so. Hell, I'd consider Simmons/Ingram to be a more serious debate considering there were multiple teams on draft day that would've chosen Ingram #1 when the same couldn't have been said for Okafor (or Russell) over Towns.

I don't evaluate players based on how many points per game I think they'll score, so it's somewhat ironic that because Towns has overachieved on offense and underachieved on defense relative to my expectations, I'm now accused of revisionist history. I fully expected Towns as a rookie to score fewer points per game than Okafor (didn't happen) while putting together a historic season for his age based on advanced metrics (did happen). And when you consider just how rare it is for a player that young to rank as an above-average NBA player as a rookie, it's not too crazy to consider Towns a better prospect than players like Wiggins or Rose.

> just how rare it is for a player that young to rank as an above-average NBA player as a rookie, it's not too crazy to consider Towns a better prospect than players like Wiggins or Rose.

Proof from horse's mouth. Prospect status is not determined by NBA performance. And no Towns has had no historic seasons. He is by far the worst defensive center in the league. His synergy defensive stats and any defensive RAPM/RPM metric are among the worst in the league.

Prospect status is not determined by NBA performance

He is by far the worst defensive center in the league. His synergy defensive stats and any defensive RAPM/RPM metric are among the worst in the league

Obvious contradiction aside, wait until you find out it took Rose until his 3rd season to have a positive RAPM. Another shocker: it helps in basketball to be tall, so Towns can be the worst defensive center in the league and still have less of a negative impact on defense than Rose, Wall, or Wiggins did at the start of their respective careers as they were/are still learning to play.

[The_Hater]

Fultz doesn't have the athleticism of an elite guard prospect imo. what he does have is the potential to be an elite level player at the rim, midrange and behind the 3 point line. his facilitating skills are underrated too. his offensive skillset is so advanced for an 18 year old.

spacing was a big problem for his team yet he still scored in a variety of ways. he still attacked the basket even though there were 3 or 4 defenders in the paint yet he was still able to get to the rim.

If by elite athleticism you mean RWB/Rose/Wall level, sure, but Curry and Nash became elite guards and even Harden's athletic was questioned out of college. I don't see this as an issue for Fultz at all.