This SF class is a bit thin, especially compared to the PFs and SGs. Only one really old guy.
If Jackson’s arms really are only 2 inches longer than he is tall (in shoes), that’s bad.
Overall Offense
As usual, seniors dominate the top here. Some of these guys played up a position, so keep in mind that their offensive impact may be based on bringing perimeter skills to the 4, rather than just being good on their own. This is especially important if the guy doesn’t have the size to guard 4s in the NBA. Justise Winslow’s Net ORtg was inflated a bit in this way previously.
Penetration
Roles again change up as you move up a position, so these numbers matter mostly in context. Swingman/Guard types you’ll want to have a lower % assisted, while SF/PF types you can live with being less able to create on their own.
Shooting
Since you’ll expect these guys to be primarily on the perimeter and not be doing as much ball handling, it’s pretty imperative that they can chip in by spacing the floor. Only a few guys don’t look to be good shooters here, most notably Josh Jackson with his terrible FT shooting.
Passing
Not a lot of really great passers here. Obviously these guys aren’t expected to run the offense like guards are, so it isn’t as big of a deal, but you always benefit from more ball handlers and passers. Josh Jackson passed more often than I realized.
Defense
Contenders need guys who can check LeBron, KD, PG13, etc. So while you can have mediocre defenders on your rosters here, it’s pretty valuable to have good ones. The top 3 guys are who you’d expect, but Tatum is a surprise here.
Overall
Only one of the big prospects is at the top of this list.
Player Evaluations
First Rounders
Jonathan Isaac – I’m a big fan of him. His defense is legit and his versatility is what every NBA defense craves. Offensively I see him as a PF rather than a SF though. His jump shot should be okay given his FT%, but his perimeter skills are lacking, particularly decision-making with the ball in his hands. Still, he’s a sure-fire impact guy on defense.
Semi Ojeleye – Offensively he was ridiculously efficient, but the obvious problem is defense. Those steal and block numbers are entering Ryan Anderson territory levels of bad, and he isn’t big enough to guard PFs in the NBA. Steal rates that low suggest that he doesn’t have the lateral speed to guard perimeter guys either, so that’s a big problem. Also, he basically didn’t pass the ball at all, which is definitely not what you want out of a perimeter player. It isn’t hard to see the appeal in a guy who scored as much as he did, but I’m really skeptical of him.
Tyler Lydon – Outside of shooting his perimeter skills aren’t that impressive, so I think that his utility will come from playing PF. However, he’s a bit skinny to be guarding PFs full time. Obviously we all love stretch 4s, but they aren’t that valuable if they don’t guard their position decently. I’m not huge on him.
O.G. Anunoby – His defensive ability is obvious, but he’s got nothing on offense. If he’s lost anything on defense from his injury, he’s finished. Even if he hasn’t lost anything on defense, you still have to wonder what exactly he’s going to do on offense for you.
Justin Jackson – I expected him to create more of his own shots at the rim given how long he struggled with his jump shot. He finally started hitting 3s consistently just this last season but I don’t think of him as a real sharp-shooter yet. He passed well, so that’s a plus. Still, his awful steal and block rates were a surprise for a guy his size, and his Net DRtg is horrendous. He’s talked about like a 3 and D guy but you have to worry about that defense. I don’t think he’s worth a first round pick.
Josh Jackson – His impact on defense was great, picking up tons of steals and blocks and so on, but his poor length limits his potential impact in the NBA. His effort and instincts means that he’s sure to be a very good defender (especially after he adds muscle) though. On offense, his shooting is likely to be poor due to his awful FT shooting, but his perimeter skills beyond that need work. He’s too turnover prone to play with the ball in his hands and his handle isn’t incredible. Given that he’s not long or strong enough to be a full time 4, it’s critical for him to get better there. I suspect that he ends up in MKG territory.
Jayson Tatum – His offensive number stunk yes, but I think some of that is on Coach K. Just like Jabari Parker, Tatum was tasked with doing iso-scoring first and foremost, which shows off his skills but isn’t conducive to team offense. If K treated him like another guy there to play rather than a dude auditioning for the NBA, I bet he would have been more efficient. Look at how few of his makes at the rim were assisted. Also like Parker, his defensive numbers looked surprisingly good. I don’t think that he’s amazing, but I think these numbers make him look a bit worse than he is.
Second Round/Undrafted
Malcolm Hill – He’s an above average passer and capable shooter, more of a swingman than a proper forward. Didn’t get to the basket much and probably not athletic enough to really cut it, but maybe he finds a job as a role player somewhere.
Reggie Upshaw – He did a little bit of everything to get Middle Tennessee to the tournament twice, but he doesn’t shoot the ball well. If he learns to shoot he could play, but he doesn’t really have a standout skill to keep you interested.
Devin Robinson – He looks like he could be a 3 and D guy for you. Not great defense, but maybe good enough. Basically only hit spot-up 3s and didn’t create for himself or his teammates (at all). Not exciting but he could make it.
Jaron Blossomgame – His atrocious shooting basically kills him, even with his great finishing. He didn’t pass much and his defensive numbers don’t stand out at all. Add in that he’s 23 and he has no chance.
Dillon Brooks – He’s sort of a tweener. He’s too short (short-armed) to be a real forward, but he really isn’t fast enough to be a guard. He certainly has some scoring skills, but I think his bad defense sinks him. He also turns the ball over a bit more than I think he should.
Dwayne Bacon – He’s a nice athlete to look at, but he doesn’t do anything particularly well. Didn’t pass a lot, bad A/TO, not a good shooter, poor defense…
V.J. Beachem – Early in the draft process I remember people thinking he might be worth a look, but at this point I think everyone’s forgotten about him. Bad Net DRtg, didn’t create for himself or others at all. Sure he can shoot, but he’s not a special shooter and you need more than that.