All Things Luka Doncic

[reanimator]

Did I just read a post calling Doncic a potential rim protector?

[burek3]

No, you did not.

[Nikson]

Man, an unbelievable amount of ignorance and lack of analysis here.

Firstly, basketball isn't played on a spreadsheet. You can't make conclusions out of anyone's raw shooting percentages if you don't watch their games, without tape raw percentages only can be preemptive signs.

I'm not a draft guy, just lurking around here out of boredom. I think who goes where is also unimportant, Doncic is talented. As long as he goes to a good situation he can be 60th pick, I don't care. Being 1st in a situationally bad organization is much worse imo. That means I don't follow non-Euro prospects, I know only bunch of their names & very broadly their playing archetypes. But since we're looking at raw percentages and drawing clear conclusions out of them, then Michael Porter JR who everyone I've seen agrees that he is a great shooter with fluid mechanics actually isn't. In U18 Americas he shot 6/20 from FIBA 3 which is %30. In Adidas Nations he shot (I believe from HS line) 4/11 from 3 which is %36.4. In McDonalds All American and Hoops Summit games he shot 1/8 from 3 combined. Which is %12.5 FWIW. So, I see those numbers, he shot a little better with significantly worse competition and shorter line. He shoots worse with same line as Luka's while facing probably even considerably worse competition than NIJT tournaments Luka dominated long ago. I had to go back because Luka has not played in worse competition than U18 Americas... let's say in a while. Oh, and again he shoots %35.1 from HS line in 77 attempts in high school, against children basically. With that all said, do I reject Michael Porter JR's shot? No, because these raw percentages do nothing but give preemptive disputable half-ideas to me. Every draft person I trust say he has a great shot and he's going to be a great shooter. A few minute short clips I've seen suggest his mechanics are fluid and shooting footwork at that age is elite. That's why I'm not going to arrive at conclusions of a 19 year old kid's (who I don't really watch) shooting prowess with raw percentages.

On the other hand, while I believe in his shot I think he jacks up too many 3s. I understand being the late-clock shooter now that Llull is gone. Only other Real player who's willing to have that role is Campazzo and his late-clock drives often ending with floaters. But I think Luka easily takes at least one 3 pointer in every game that is unnecessary aside of late-clock responsibility shots. As for someone who's such a PnR maestro, he needs to snake the PnR more to get good midrange shots. His touch is real good, his stepback is his go-to move. Snaking the PnR to get good midrange looks late clock or whatever, just would improve his efficiency.

I don't agree with the idea that he's afraid of contact either. He doesn't get all the way to the rim because he lacks arm length to finish over outstretched arms of defenders. He's better at using floaters and little bank shots with stop & fadeaways and also under-the-rim layups without using the glass which look closer to finger rolls than traditional layups. Like, he started to get to the foul line a lot because he gets contact for someone who's not a slasher. And only basketball gods know how many times he hit the floor in CSKA game which was only a couple days ago. The analogy with Ben Simmons seems right, but Ben seems like he has a considerably weaker floater/shots around the rim game than Luka in the limited games he has played so far with 76ers. So that does worry me about Simmons but not about Doncic.

Anyone who thinks he's average "at best" defensively should watch Spain game in Eurobasket. That was his peak defensive game from what I've seen of him so far against great competition being an 18 year old. It's a joke to think that's average defense. On the other hand, of course that's not his usual defensive performance. I think he'll be non-plus but above average defender (meaning what he brings on that end isn't game-changer so non-plus) and two things would explain why.

*He can be one of those pseudo-rim proctectors. This is actually a quality of great non-rim protector defenders (Wade, post-2016 Dallas series Durant, etc.) but weirdly Doncic has shown flashes of this. Every other game he surprises with the sliding from the corner or weakside to block the rim roller play. He has done it multiple times at 17 & 18 years of age in Euroleague and ACB that I believe it can carry over. We'll see.

*As everyone knows he isn't a plus defender but he's a plus team defender. Now, what makes players who are plus defenders collectively, but non-plus overall is the tendency to hurt team defense as a liability while being attacked. Steph is a good example. He displays all these defensive playmaking, doesn't blow off rotations much, doesn't get cut much, anticipation and defensive fundamentals are good. But he doesn't have the physical tools. So when Cavs did nothing but tried to switch him onto their best offensive players in 2016 Finals, he's become a liability on that end despite all the positive collective things he does. In the season opener, he did everything he can to hold off Harden to get to the rim, he even succeeded. But Harden patiently went to mid-range and just shot over him. Rockets offense down the stretch was basically trying to get Steph switched onto Harden. There's a reason for that. Now about Doncic, he doesn't really have that liability. He has a great frame, wide shoulders and he's strong so he's actually a good post defender. And then, his biggest defensive weakness is against screens not one-on-one. He's not a good one-on-one defender who'd shut down players forcing them to certain angles & tough shots. Not at all. But he actually holds his own well in straight one-on-one possessions. And being a PnR liability (if it's gonna be one for Luka) is much less harmful in other PnR coverages because it's solvable with team construction. Unless you're Kyrie Irving type of literally dying at screens type which Luka isn't. It really won't affect your team defense not at all as much and not at all as directly as being a liability after switches.

Oh, and he absolutely feasts off switches. Again, basketball is one of the most contextual sports in the world. The only empirical evidence is the tape. After reading a forum post of someone arriving at conclusions of shooting ability by raw percentages and accepting those conclusions by saying "Well turns out he's not a good shooter and he can't blow by guys so teams will just switch and take away his game." is just strange in my opinion. Like, all these Euroleague games are being played with tactical battles of coaches who need to squeeze every bit of tactical advantage out of their teams and they never thought of that? Just switch and he's done, they never thought of this? Well, he's a PnR maestro at 18, we should alert Euroleague coaches to have them just switch it so Real Madrid offense will be done. What an idea. Though, admittedly it was funnier when evidence of him feasting off switches were shown and dismissed by the owner of the idea.

Anyway, that seems like a long post. If you read it this far, I congratulate you to put up with my scattered thoughts and poor syntax.

Great. (Bookmark-for trolls)

[reanimator]

"*He can be one of those pseudo-rim proctectors. This is actually a quality of great non-rim protector defenders (Wade, post-2016 Dallas series Durant, etc.) but weirdly Doncic has shown flashes of this. Every other game he surprises with the sliding from the corner or weakside to block the rim roller play. He has done it multiple times at 17 & 18 years of age in Euroleague and ACB that I believe it can carry over. We'll see. "

This thread manages to top itself every time I think its peaked.

[TankCommander17]

"*He can be one of those pseudo-rim proctectors. This is actually a quality of great non-rim protector defenders (Wade, post-2016 Dallas series Durant, etc.) but weirdly Doncic has shown flashes of this. Every other game he surprises with the sliding from the corner or weakside to block the rim roller play. He has done it multiple times at 17 & 18 years of age in Euroleague and ACB that I believe it can carry over. We'll see. "

This thread manages to top itself every time I think its peaked.

Oh my. This thread is popcorn worthy.

[TankCommander17]

Man, an unbelievable amount of ignorance and lack of analysis here.

Firstly, basketball isn't played on a spreadsheet. You can't make conclusions out of anyone's raw shooting percentages if you don't watch their games, without tape raw percentages only can be preemptive signs.

I'm not a draft guy, just lurking around here out of boredom. I think who goes where is also unimportant, Doncic is talented. As long as he goes to a good situation he can be 60th pick, I don't care. Being 1st in a situationally bad organization is much worse imo. That means I don't follow non-Euro prospects, I know only bunch of their names & very broadly their playing archetypes. But since we're looking at raw percentages and drawing clear conclusions out of them, then Michael Porter JR who everyone I've seen agrees that he is a great shooter with fluid mechanics actually isn't. In U18 Americas he shot 6/20 from FIBA 3 which is %30. In Adidas Nations he shot (I believe from HS line) 4/11 from 3 which is %36.4. In McDonalds All American and Hoops Summit games he shot 1/8 from 3 combined. Which is %12.5 FWIW. So, I see those numbers, he shot a little better with significantly worse competition and shorter line. He shoots worse with same line as Luka's while facing probably even considerably worse competition than NIJT tournaments Luka dominated long ago. I had to go back because Luka has not played in worse competition than U18 Americas... let's say in a while. Oh, and again he shoots %35.1 from HS line in 77 attempts in high school, against children basically. With that all said, do I reject Michael Porter JR's shot? No, because these raw percentages do nothing but give preemptive disputable half-ideas to me. Every draft person I trust say he has a great shot and he's going to be a great shooter. A few minute short clips I've seen suggest his mechanics are fluid and shooting footwork at that age is elite. That's why I'm not going to arrive at conclusions of a 19 year old kid's (who I don't really watch) shooting prowess with raw percentages.

On the other hand, while I believe in his shot I think he jacks up too many 3s. I understand being the late-clock shooter now that Llull is gone. Only other Real player who's willing to have that role is Campazzo and his late-clock drives often ending with floaters. But I think Luka easily takes at least one 3 pointer in every game that is unnecessary aside of late-clock responsibility shots. As for someone who's such a PnR maestro, he needs to snake the PnR more to get good midrange shots. His touch is real good, his stepback is his go-to move. Snaking the PnR to get good midrange looks late clock or whatever, just would improve his efficiency.

I don't agree with the idea that he's afraid of contact either. He doesn't get all the way to the rim because he lacks arm length to finish over outstretched arms of defenders. He's better at using floaters and little bank shots with stop & fadeaways and also under-the-rim layups without using the glass which look closer to finger rolls than traditional layups. Like, he started to get to the foul line a lot because he gets contact for someone who's not a slasher. And only basketball gods know how many times he hit the floor in CSKA game which was only a couple days ago. The analogy with Ben Simmons seems right, but Ben seems like he has a considerably weaker floater/shots around the rim game than Luka in the limited games he has played so far with 76ers. So that does worry me about Simmons but not about Doncic.

Anyone who thinks he's average "at best" defensively should watch Spain game in Eurobasket. That was his peak defensive game from what I've seen of him so far against great competition being an 18 year old. It's a joke to think that's average defense. On the other hand, of course that's not his usual defensive performance. I think he'll be non-plus but above average defender (meaning what he brings on that end isn't game-changer so non-plus) and two things would explain why.

*He can be one of those pseudo-rim proctectors. This is actually a quality of great non-rim protector defenders (Wade, post-2016 Dallas series Durant, etc.) but weirdly Doncic has shown flashes of this. Every other game he surprises with the sliding from the corner or weakside to block the rim roller play. He has done it multiple times at 17 & 18 years of age in Euroleague and ACB that I believe it can carry over. We'll see.

*As everyone knows he isn't a plus defender but he's a plus team defender. Now, what makes players who are plus defenders collectively, but non-plus overall is the tendency to hurt team defense as a liability while being attacked. Steph is a good example. He displays all these defensive playmaking, doesn't blow off rotations much, doesn't get cut much, anticipation and defensive fundamentals are good. But he doesn't have the physical tools. So when Cavs did nothing but tried to switch him onto their best offensive players in 2016 Finals, he's become a liability on that end despite all the positive collective things he does. In the season opener, he did everything he can to hold off Harden to get to the rim, he even succeeded. But Harden patiently went to mid-range and just shot over him. Rockets offense down the stretch was basically trying to get Steph switched onto Harden. There's a reason for that. Now about Doncic, he doesn't really have that liability. He has a great frame, wide shoulders and he's strong so he's actually a good post defender. And then, his biggest defensive weakness is against screens not one-on-one. He's not a good one-on-one defender who'd shut down players forcing them to certain angles & tough shots. Not at all. But he actually holds his own well in straight one-on-one possessions. And being a PnR liability (if it's gonna be one for Luka) is much less harmful in other PnR coverages because it's solvable with team construction. Unless you're Kyrie Irving type of literally dying at screens type which Luka isn't. It really won't affect your team defense not at all as much and not at all as directly as being a liability after switches.

Oh, and he absolutely feasts off switches. Again, basketball is one of the most contextual sports in the world. The only empirical evidence is the tape. After reading a forum post of someone arriving at conclusions of shooting ability by raw percentages and accepting those conclusions by saying "Well turns out he's not a good shooter and he can't blow by guys so teams will just switch and take away his game." is just strange in my opinion. Like, all these Euroleague games are being played with tactical battles of coaches who need to squeeze every bit of tactical advantage out of their teams and they never thought of that? Just switch and he's done, they never thought of this? Well, he's a PnR maestro at 18, we should alert Euroleague coaches to have them just switch it so Real Madrid offense will be done. What an idea. Though, admittedly it was funnier when evidence of him feasting off switches were shown and dismissed by the owner of the idea.

Anyway, that seems like a long post. If you read it this far, I congratulate you to put up with my scattered thoughts and poor syntax.

He is not a pseudo rim protector. And if you are citing ONE GAME out of his whole career to prove he is a not so bad defender then you need to reanalyze your whole post.

He is also a bad defender in a league full of less athletic guys than those in the nba. With the athletes the nba has he will be a net negative defender.

He doesn't even have the speed or quickness of Steph Curry which you cited in your post. NOWHERE NEAR.

Also at least Curry can negate his average defense by his elite offensive skills which Doncic does not have.

[TankCommander17]

Look at it this way. He shoots threes at a high volume even when they are not falling and he doesnt get pulled out of the game. That tells you that Laso sees Doncic shooting the ball at every practice and seeing what he can do. If he didnt trust him, he would tell him to stop shooting so much. Its that simple. Luka can hit these shots at a high clip, he just needs more reps. He will have good stretches this season, after all in the summer at one point his 3p % was 70 and that was on a high voulme. Like I said, he will have good stretches and he will have bad ones. As he matures, there will be less and less bad ones and he will be a very good/elite shooter in the NBA.

You are basing this on what?

The fact that his coach doesn't pull him might be because he is the better player out of the scrubs in his bench. But in the nba he will be the scrub if he keeps shooting like that and won't get the reps needed to get better. Or he may have just maximized his potential and more reps will not help.

[Nikson]

"*He can be one of those pseudo-rim proctectors. This is actually a quality of great non-rim protector defenders (Wade, post-2016 Dallas series Durant, etc.) but weirdly Doncic has shown flashes of this. Every other game he surprises with the sliding from the corner or weakside to block the rim roller play. He has done it multiple times at 17 & 18 years of age in Euroleague and ACB that I believe it can carry over. We'll see. "

This thread manages to top itself every time I think its peaked.

What do you mean?

[TankCommander17]

"*He can be one of those pseudo-rim proctectors. This is actually a quality of great non-rim protector defenders (Wade, post-2016 Dallas series Durant, etc.) but weirdly Doncic has shown flashes of this. Every other game he surprises with the sliding from the corner or weakside to block the rim roller play. He has done it multiple times at 17 & 18 years of age in Euroleague and ACB that I believe it can carry over. We'll see. "

This thread manages to top itself every time I think its peaked.

What do you mean?

He is saying that everytime he thinks it can't get more absurd it does. And calling Doncic a pseudo-rim protector when he is a bad defender and vertically challenged is topping the previous absurdities he has read.

[Rasho Brezec]

"*He can be one of those pseudo-rim proctectors. This is actually a quality of great non-rim protector defenders (Wade, post-2016 Dallas series Durant, etc.) but weirdly Doncic has shown flashes of this. Every other game he surprises with the sliding from the corner or weakside to block the rim roller play. He has done it multiple times at 17 & 18 years of age in Euroleague and ACB that I believe it can carry over. We'll see. "

This thread manages to top itself every time I think its peaked.

Oh my. This thread is popcorn worthy.

He's right though. Doncic has incredible anticipation and timing. That's why he's such a great rebounder for a perimeter player and why he gets those weakside blocks.

[Nikson]

"*He can be one of those pseudo-rim proctectors. This is actually a quality of great non-rim protector defenders (Wade, post-2016 Dallas series Durant, etc.) but weirdly Doncic has shown flashes of this. Every other game he surprises with the sliding from the corner or weakside to block the rim roller play. He has done it multiple times at 17 & 18 years of age in Euroleague and ACB that I believe it can carry over. We'll see. "

This thread manages to top itself every time I think its peaked.

What do you mean?

He is saying that everytime he thinks it can't get more absurd it does. And calling Doncic a pseudo-rim protector when he is a bad defender and vertically challenged is topping the previous absurdities he has read.

Thanks.
I thought pseudo-rim protector does not equal rim protector. I understand he thinks Dončić is more a player who is actually NOT rim protector but has some qualities which enables him to protect the rim occasionally.

[XTraderXL]

Look at it this way. He shoots threes at a high volume even when they are not falling and he doesnt get pulled out of the game. That tells you that Laso sees Doncic shooting the ball at every practice and seeing what he can do. If he didnt trust him, he would tell him to stop shooting so much. Its that simple. Luka can hit these shots at a high clip, he just needs more reps. He will have good stretches this season, after all in the summer at one point his 3p % was 70 and that was on a high voulme. Like I said, he will have good stretches and he will have bad ones. As he matures, there will be less and less bad ones and he will be a very good/elite shooter in the NBA.

You are basing this on what?

The fact that his coach doesn't pull him might be because he is the better player out of the scrubs in his bench. But in the nba he will be the scrub if he keeps shooting like that and won't get the reps needed to get better. Or he may have just maximized his potential and more reps will not help.

I am basing it on my experience as a 10+ year ex pro player. Doncic is not a bad shooter in any way, he is able to hit every shot he takes. If he was not able to hit them with good enough %, he would not be allowed to take them. If a player is a bad shooter and a good playmaker, a coach takes him out regardless if he takes too many shots he is not able to make. Maybe not in the NBA, but in Europe its always been like that. Of course you dont know that because clearly you dont recognize the differences between the two coaching styles. If Doncic was a bad shooter and taking the same shots he is taking now without coaches permission, he would get benched for a stretch no matter how good of a playmaker he is.

And yes you are right, he maximized his potential at 18

[TankCommander17]

Look at it this way. He shoots threes at a high volume even when they are not falling and he doesnt get pulled out of the game. That tells you that Laso sees Doncic shooting the ball at every practice and seeing what he can do. If he didnt trust him, he would tell him to stop shooting so much. Its that simple. Luka can hit these shots at a high clip, he just needs more reps. He will have good stretches this season, after all in the summer at one point his 3p % was 70 and that was on a high voulme. Like I said, he will have good stretches and he will have bad ones. As he matures, there will be less and less bad ones and he will be a very good/elite shooter in the NBA.

You are basing this on what?

The fact that his coach doesn't pull him might be because he is the better player out of the scrubs in his bench. But in the nba he will be the scrub if he keeps shooting like that and won't get the reps needed to get better. Or he may have just maximized his potential and more reps will not help.

I am basing it on my experience as a 10+ year ex pro player. Doncic is not a bad shooter in any way, he is able to hit every shot he takes. If he was not able to hit them with good enough %, he would not be allowed to take them. If a player is a bad shooter and a good playmaker, a coach takes him out regardless if he takes too many shots he is not able to make. Maybe not in the NBA, but in Europe its always been like that. Of course you dont know that because clearly you dont recognize the differences between the two coaching styles. If Doncic was a bad shooter and taking the same shots he is taking now without coaches permission, he would get benched for a stretch no matter how good of a playmaker he is.

And yes you are right, he maximized his potential at 18

I NEVER said he maximized his potential at 18. I said that if he comes to the nba and shoots like that he won't get the reps needed in order to get better because its not like in europe where there are a bunch of scrubs in the bench. The scrubs in nba benches are starters or stars in europe. Hi Anthony Randolph.

And at some point it might just be that he has maximized his potential and won't get better. Not today. I am saying once he gets to the league.

And you might be a 10+ year player but youa re not a coach or gm or player development personnel in the nba.

The euro game and nba game are played different and coached different. Hell all of the international game is played different than the nba. Look at Blatt a great coach abroad and got tossed like a dirty rag doll after less than a season.

Forget all your knowledge of euro ball because it is nothing like nba ball.

[Nikson]

You are basing this on what?

The fact that his coach doesn't pull him might be because he is the better player out of the scrubs in his bench. But in the nba he will be the scrub if he keeps shooting like that and won't get the reps needed to get better. Or he may have just maximized his potential and more reps will not help.

I am basing it on my experience as a 10+ year ex pro player. Doncic is not a bad shooter in any way, he is able to hit every shot he takes. If he was not able to hit them with good enough %, he would not be allowed to take them. If a player is a bad shooter and a good playmaker, a coach takes him out regardless if he takes too many shots he is not able to make. Maybe not in the NBA, but in Europe its always been like that. Of course you dont know that because clearly you dont recognize the differences between the two coaching styles. If Doncic was a bad shooter and taking the same shots he is taking now without coaches permission, he would get benched for a stretch no matter how good of a playmaker he is.

And yes you are right, he maximized his potential at 18

I NEVER said he maximized his potential at 18. I said that if he comes to the nba and shoots like that he won't get the reps needed in order to get better because its not like in europe where there are a bunch of scrubs in the bench. The scrubs in nba benches are starters or stars in europe. Hi Anthony Randolph.

And at some point it might just be that he has maximized his potential and won't get better. Not today. I am saying once he gets to the league.

And you might be a 10+ year player but youa re not a coach or gm or player development personnel in the nba.

The euro game and nba game are played different and coached different. Hell all of the international game is played different than the nba. Look at Blatt a great coach abroad and got tossed like a dirty rag doll after less than a season.

Forget all your knowledge of euro ball because it is nothing like nba ball.

How many years of experience being a coach, GM or development personnel in the NBA do you have? Are you famous?

[TankCommander17]

I am basing it on my experience as a 10+ year ex pro player. Doncic is not a bad shooter in any way, he is able to hit every shot he takes. If he was not able to hit them with good enough %, he would not be allowed to take them. If a player is a bad shooter and a good playmaker, a coach takes him out regardless if he takes too many shots he is not able to make. Maybe not in the NBA, but in Europe its always been like that. Of course you dont know that because clearly you dont recognize the differences between the two coaching styles. If Doncic was a bad shooter and taking the same shots he is taking now without coaches permission, he would get benched for a stretch no matter how good of a playmaker he is.

And yes you are right, he maximized his potential at 18

I NEVER said he maximized his potential at 18. I said that if he comes to the nba and shoots like that he won't get the reps needed in order to get better because its not like in europe where there are a bunch of scrubs in the bench. The scrubs in nba benches are starters or stars in europe. Hi Anthony Randolph.

And at some point it might just be that he has maximized his potential and won't get better. Not today. I am saying once he gets to the league.

And you might be a 10+ year player but youa re not a coach or gm or player development personnel in the nba.

The euro game and nba game are played different and coached different. Hell all of the international game is played different than the nba. Look at Blatt a great coach abroad and got tossed like a dirty rag doll after less than a season.

Forget all your knowledge of euro ball because it is nothing like nba ball.

How many years of experience being a coach, GM or development personnel in the NBA do you have? Are you famous?

0 just like you and everyone here. Just stating for him that his 10+ year player career means nothing.

I know someone who played in europe and its a total idiot who you wouldn't want doing your homework. He was just 6'1 and could play some ball.

[Nikson]

Blatt is a good coach in my opinion. I hope you do not mind.

[Nikson]

10 years of pro experience as player in a approximately 10 years experience. It is not 0 it is 10. It is more than 0.

[TankCommander17]

For the record I don't think Doncic is a scrub. His bball IQ is very high for someone his age. That is his greatest gift.

However his lack of athleticism is what will hold him back from being a great great player. Can he succeed in the nba? Yes.

Will he be an elite player like Bron/KD/etc ? No imo.

But he can have a solid career.

It is just some of the outlandish claims here making him the 2nd coming are funny.

[Nikson]

I think Luka Dončić will be no.1 pick in draft 2018. He is really good.

[TankCommander17]

Blatt is a good coach in my opinion. I hope you do not mind.

He was a good coach in europe. He was not in the nba. Could not handle the NBA egos. This is just one example of how different the style of play the leagues have.