Jaren Jackson Jr.

[blazeyo]

Im on the train. Needs to improve his rebounding though and is still very much foul prone... Even if he is called for really weak ass fouls.

[doordoor123]

I think he'll probably turn out better than Noah Vonleh and not as good as Myles Turner. He's got great tools, but he's so young and raw right now, it's hard to say there isn't some risk with him. At the very least, he looks like he'll be a plus defender. I'd really love to see him be able to put the ball down and make a few plays off the dribble.

He is almost certainly going to be better than Turner, there is no doubt in my mind

Agree 100%

[Sactowndog]

What's his ability to bang down low and finish close to the rim?

Most of the reason why he's shooting lesser % than the Ayton, Bamba, Bagley is because he doesn't seem to get alot of easy finishes at the basket like a traditional C.

Part of that reason is because unlike Bamba and Ayton and to a lesser extent, Bagley, Jackson is playing exclusively at Power Forward. MSU is loaded with plodding big men with limited range (Nick Ward, Xavier Tillman, Gavin Schilling, Genny Goins). Typically Jaren will be hovering around the 3 point line to allow space for Ward, Bridges, Winston and Langford to attack the basket.

Does he have the foot speed to guard NBA 3’s? I wonder if he could be a long NBA 3 and D guy.

[The Master]

It's quite interesting to see many people to have Bamba in their mocks above Jackson considering:

- Bamba is just a little bit better shotblocker (per40: 6.1blk vs 5.3blk) but Jackson is better perimeter defender
- Jackson is solid 3pt shooter - 2.1 3pts per 40 on 44% while Bamba hit six three pointers whole season on 22%
- Jackson is one year younger than Bamba!

So basically what make you think Bamba is a better prospect? He has astonishing physical profile but Jackson has great wingspan and standing reach either. So Bamba is a better shotblocker and rebounder (but not by a huge margin), while Jackson has bigger potential to be classy big on perimeter D - but on offense, he's much better shooter and much better scorer (19ppg on 65%ts per40). And like I mentioned, he's one year younger.

I don't have anything against Bamba, he is the most talented bigman on D in college since AD probably, but isn't accurate to assume people overrate a little his physical tools in comparison to Jackson? And his statistics taking into account he plays bigger minutes than Jackson when in fact per40 their shotblocking stats are comparable

These bigs whose offense is based on finishing around a rim (even in cases of Jordan or Gobert) are rarely positive offensive players (just look on ORPM, Gobert had slightly positive last season), on the other hand - there are not too many bigs who can stretch a floor AND guarantee elite rim protection like Jackson.

So the difference between these two on offense is bigger than (eventually, because I'm not sure why not to assume they are on the same tier) on defense, and in addition - Jackson is one year younger, and he shows more potential to grow.

Since december (per40):

Bamba:
16,5ppg, 14.2 rpg, 6,3bpg, 58%ts

Jackson:
20,3ppg, 9,6rpg, 6,1bpg, 74%ts (! he shots over 50% 3pt in this period)

Bamba is much better rebounder, but firstly, he's one year older and secondly, that's small sample size and Jackson had two worse games on board, he's better than these numbers.

The fact is Jackson is comparable shotblocker and much better player on offense.

So for me it's clear he's better prospect right now:

- he's one year younger than Bamba
- their floor seems to be similar, question marks around Bamba's unpolished offense and Jackson's rawness make them both valuable role players in the worst case scenarios
- Jackson has higher upside - he can be elite shotblocker, but also very good shooter and great finisher - you cannot say these three things about Bamba
- it's easier to find a fit for Jackson - with his mobiliy, shooting touch and shotblocking potential, he can play in a duo with almost every big

And it's nothing against Bamba to be clear, he has DPOTY potential. But because of his liimited minutes people seem not to notice that JJJr has similiar per40 shotblocking stats to Davis or Noel ones back in college.

So you can argue Bamba is better shotblocker and rebounder, but the difference in shooting and offense in general is much bigger. And we also have to take into account the age difference.

So again (to people who have Bamba above Jackson) - why you rate him as a better prospect?

[eminence]

.

I have Jackson above Bamba (2 vs 4), but I have to imagine it's around worries of him turning out to be a Favors level rim protector, which is nice and all, but it's not Gobert. Bamba does some things around the rim that I doubt anyone else in the world can do.

[The Master]

I have Jackson above Bamba (2 vs 4), but I have to imagine it's around worries of him turning out to be a Favors level rim protector, which is nice and all, but it's not Gobert. Bamba does some things around the rim that I doubt anyone else in the world can do.

Favors had 3.0 bpg per 40 in college, so Jackson has almost twice as many as DF in this moment.

And this is what I wrote post earlier - Jackson plays limited minutes in stacked Michigan State team and his stats are not as impressive as Bamba's but per40 in fact he is on Noel or Davis tier in terms of blocked shots in college.

So why do some of us assume he's not elite shotblocker as a prospect?

And yeah, Bamba's potential on defense is undeniable, he can definitely be with his IQ and size a DPOTY candidate, but Jackson's ceiling on D is also very high, but he's also much better on offense while he's a year younger.

So let's assume Bamba has higher ceilling on D - maybe this is true, but defense is not only about shotblocking, but also about movement, and recently especially on perimeter. But what about offense? Do you think in any possible situation Bamba can develop to be as versatile on offense as Jackson, or close to that? Or in other words - do you think Bamba can be as close to Jackson on offense as Jackson is close to him on D right now?

And I like this Favors comparison to put into perspective how good Jackson is - as NBA player, DF was very good two way big (16-8-2-2) before these injuries he had, but as a college prospect, Jackson is much better shotblocker and much better shooter (>40% from 3s and >80% from ft vs ~60%ft percentage without three pointer) than Favors was in Georgia Tech while he's still very athletic.

Another problem with Jackson is that at the top of a draft we have two college superstars (Ayton, Bagley), and defensive superstar (Bamba), while Jackson is most versatile of this 4, but also the youngest, so it's hard for him to make his case against these guys. The most accurate argument against Jackson is that he's so raw that there are question marks around his decision making, turnovers, foul trouble or intensity level in full 30+minutes games, but we should keep in minds that he's 18yo and he will be one of the youngest players who will be chosen in draft in July.

IMHO he is (potentially) the most interesting combination of shooting and shotblocking we've seen recently. As freshmen in college (per40):

Jackson: 82%ft, 2.1 3p (44%)
Love: 77%ft, 1.0 3p (35%)
Towns: 81%ft, 0.1 3p (25%)
Markkanen: 84%ft, 2.4 3p (42%)
Turner: 83%ft, 0.9 3p (27%)

Bamba: 6,1bpg
Davis: 5,7bpg
Noel: 5,5bpg
Jackson: 5,3bpg
Turner: 4,7bpg
Embiid: 4,5bpg
Towns: 4,5bpg

I'm not saying he is as good as a shooter as Markkanen, but the fact is he's having matches (against Duke or Maryland) where he hits multiple three pointers and looked like Frye-esque in terms of shooting. And he's only 18.

Watch on YouTube

Since December, his blocking stats are as good as Bamba's per40 (look my previous post).

In fact we should discuss whether Jackson is better NBA prospect than Bagley or Ayton.

[eminence]

.

Favors actually went to Georgia Tech

I'd have both Jackson(2) and Bamba(4) over Ayton(7)/Bagley(8) right now.

Just trying to say it's a bit easier to project Bamba's dominant rim-protecting into the NBA because it depends so much on him being such a physical outlier, which he will continue to be. Jackson meanwhile will lose a lot of his physical advantages at the NBA level, I think he could/should continue to be almost as good as Bamba at protecting the rim (which means he should be ahead overall due to other advantages), but I would understand why someone might think he might be only a good rim-protector as opposed to a great one and how that might put Bamba ahead overall.

[916fan]

What's his ability to bang down low and finish close to the rim?

Most of the reason why he's shooting lesser % than the Ayton, Bamba, Bagley is because he doesn't seem to get alot of easy finishes at the basket like a traditional C.

Part of that reason is because unlike Bamba and Ayton and to a lesser extent, Bagley, Jackson is playing exclusively at Power Forward. MSU is loaded with plodding big men with limited range (Nick Ward, Xavier Tillman, Gavin Schilling, Genny Goins). Typically Jaren will be hovering around the 3 point line to allow space for Ward, Bridges, Winston and Langford to attack the basket.

Does he have the foot speed to guard NBA 3’s? I wonder if he could be a long NBA 3 and D guy.

I doubt it. He got dominated by Keita Bates-Diop who is a SF/PF. Don't think he has the footspeed to guard SFs, but he can switch on them.

[The Master]

Good point.

Yes, to some point I can agree with that, because I can't deny how good on defense Bamba can be. But even considering assumption presented by you (Bamba as great rim protector and JJJr only as very good one), the difference on offense right now is still big enough to have Jackson ahead, because it's much bigger than on defense.

[Jkam31]

Jackson is the better defender when you add in his defense on the perimeter which might be more important


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[Mulhollanddrive]

It might just be their NBA prototypes it's harder to find a superstar comparison for Jaren Jackson than Mo Bamba.

[yoyoboy]

What's with the poor rebounding numbers as of late? I haven't actually been watching him, so would someone who has be able to elaborate on what's been happening?



And then add in a 3 rebound game today. Just 3.6 rpg in his last 7 games.

[The Master]

He's just okay rebounder right now, but better than these numbers, his offensive rebounding is limited because he plays huge amount of time as a jumpshooter, and on defense he plays alongside great rebounders like Ward or Bridges.

[Fat]

he's become my favorite big in the draft

[GimmeDat]

Yeah, I haven't watched any full games of him in a while and those rebounding numbers stood out to me. Like to hear an explanation for them because they're not just mediocre numbers, they're bad.

[doordoor123]

Yeah, I haven't watched any full games of him in a while and those rebounding numbers stood out to me. Like to hear an explanation for them because they're not just mediocre numbers, they're bad.

It’s a combination of lack of strength, bad positioning and lack of rebounding technique. He doesn’t rebound at the ball’s highest point, doesn’t post up guys to get rebounds and really isn’t strong. His rebounding technique is to use his motor and try to run through people or use his length. It’s just rawness showing through. Once he puts on more muscle and gets some rebounding coaching he should be better. I don’t think it’s too big of an issue because it’s something correctable IMO.

[The-Power]

Yeah, I haven't watched any full games of him in a while and those rebounding numbers stood out to me. Like to hear an explanation for them because they're not just mediocre numbers, they're bad.

Aside from individual deficiencies as a rebounder, there are some strategic notes to be made.

1. Jackson plays out on the perimeter a lot which limits his offensive rebounding opportunities.
2. On defense, Izzo has recently emphasized rebounding and urged everybody on his team to crash the defensive glass as opposed to earlier games, when the team was more concerned with running the floor quickly. This means rebounds previously going to Jackson are now going to smaller players.
3. Jackson has been extremely foul prone. I would imagine that he tries to not get called for more fouls than he already does in rebounding situations, i.e. he's a little less aggressive on the glass (but he clearly has the desire to crash the glass hard if unleashed).
4. As on offense, Jackson also plays out on the perimeter more on defense – and naturally some match-ups will lead to lower rebounding numbers if he's pulled away from the rim; this is something we frequently see with PFs in the NBA these days as well.
5. One of his main roles on defense is that of a help defender. This means that frequently he goes for the contest/block while other, less talented rim protectors/shot blockers, will already look to get into position for the rebound.

Individual rebounding numbers get grossly overrated at times. What matters are how much you contribute to your team's rebounding, in whatever way, and despite some necessary improvements by Jackson I consider his impact on team rebounding to be absolutely nothing to worry about – especially for a Freshman.

[doordoor123]

Yeah, I haven't watched any full games of him in a while and those rebounding numbers stood out to me. Like to hear an explanation for them because they're not just mediocre numbers, they're bad.

Aside from individual deficiencies as a rebounder, there are some strategic notes to be made.

1. Jackson plays out on the perimeter a lot which limits his offensive rebounding opportunities.
2. On defense, Izzo has recently emphasized rebounding and urged everybody on his team to crash the defensive glass as opposed to earlier games, when the team was more concerned with running the floor quickly. This means rebounds previously going to Jackson are now going to smaller players.
3. Jackson has been extremely foul prone. I would imagine that he tries to not get called for more fouls than he already does in rebounding situations, i.e. he's a little less aggressive on the glass (but he clearly has the desire to crash the glass hard if unleashed).
4. As on offense, Jackson also plays out on the perimeter more on defense – and naturally some match-ups will lead to lower rebounding numbers if he's pulled away from the rim; this is something we frequently see with PFs in the NBA these days as well.
5. One of his main roles on defense is that of a help defender. This means that frequently he goes for the contest/block while other, less talented rim protectors/shot blockers, will already look to get into position for the rebound.

Individual rebounding numbers get grossly overrated at times. What matters are how much you contribute to your team's rebounding, in whatever way, and despite some necessary improvements by Jackson I consider his impact on team rebounding to be absolutely nothing to worry about – especially for a Freshman.

This is also true. It was the same thing with Markkanen last year.

[Jkam31]

He’ll be an all nba defender who shoots 3s


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[tape up]

Can he guard small ball 4s and stretch 4s. Wondering what the fit would be like if the Knicks slid KP to the 5 (his ideal position imo) and slotted JJJr in as the 4.

KP's weaknesses are rebounding, guarding stretch 4's and being a force down low. Would JJJr complement KP and the Knicks?