Trae Young

[kb02]

A better shooting Tyus Jones.

[BlueSan]

You also have to remember that if you are considered one of the top players in the draft, people, teams will approach you differently and all of a sudden you will find you are defended better and you will in general have a harder time on the floor that you used to have and 100% your numbers will suffer a bit. How much depends on the quality of opposition as also your own capabilities.

And when someone thinks smaller guys who shoot well can be this heavenly addition to the teams you need to look deeper. Look into an extreme example of I. Thomas and you will see that if nothing else, your defensive vulnerabilities will hurt the team you are in.

So think about those things before you hype the player or consider him a top 5, 3 or even number 1 pick.

And one last thing. In Basketball a difference of 0,1 feet or 4-5cm for point guards is a big deal, before anyone tries to make the Curry, Donovan Mitchel Comparison in concern to that. Yes it is similar of a problem they both face, but it is not the same. Those 4-5 cm help quite a bit when guarding, or trying to shoot the ball and we are talking about split seconds.

[bwgood77]

You also have to remember that if you are considered one of the top players in the draft, people, teams will approach you differently and all of a sudden you will find you are defended better and you will in general have a harder time on the floor that you used to have and 100% your numbers will suffer a bit. How much depends on the quality of opposition as also your own capabilities.

And when someone thinks smaller guys who shoot well can be this heavenly addition to the teams you need to look deeper. Look into an extreme example of I. Thomas and you will see that if nothing else, your defensive vulnerabilities will hurt the team you are in.

So think about those things before you hype the player or consider him a top 5, 3 or even number 1 pick.

And one last thing. In Basketball a difference of 0,1 feet or 4-5cm for point guards is a big deal, before anyone tries to make the Curry, Donovan Mitchel Comparison in concern to that. Yes it is similar of a problem they both face, but it is not the same. Those 4-5 cm help quite a bit when guarding, or trying to shoot the ball and we are talking about split seconds.

His best quality is probably getting to the line so often and knocking down his free throws. He has great court vision too. I think his lack of good teammates and defenses game planning specifically for him are taking their toll and making things tougher.

His shooting slump is a little worrisome, but I'm convinced he's a great shooter and will have far more wide open shots in the NBA.

It's pretty rare that a player leads the NCAA in scoring and assists, particularly as a freshman and has over a 60% TS%, even after such a terrible slump.

He's a rare prospect. He will have defensive issues, but you're taking this guy because of what he's elite at. No PGs really stop the best PGs in the NBA anyway. It's far more important to have great defense at the wing and especially at the big positions. That's why Bagley and Ayton's defensive issues are far more worrisome because you can't really be terribly defensive at those positions, particularly in Bagley's case where you are a pretty bad shooter and can't protect the rim.

[Duke4life831]

Im going to say the same thing I said when the season started, I think hes going to be a great college PG but I really question his NBA potential. What if his FTr of .496 doesnt transfer to the NBA? He has been bad from the floor in conference play with shooting 40% from the field and 34% from 3. The thing that is saving his efficiency numbers offensively is his ability to get to the line at a very high rate. There have been many guys that see a drastic drop off in their ability to get to the line in the NBA compared to what they did in college. And ya he leads the nation in assists per game, he also leads the nation in turnovers per game by a really big margin, the other players in the top 5 in the nation for assists blow Young's assist/TO ratio out of the water.

Im not getting on him because of his recent rough stretch, I believe I have held this same stance all season long. Ive always thought he was a better shooter than his numbers said, in his international games in high school he was a 30% type shooter from 3. The thing is I think hes a good shooter he just has horrific shot selection and that has continued into college.

I think hes a boom or bust type of player, that I personally think hes going to bust. I see a lot of people say hes a better shooting Tyus Jones, Tyus Jones was no slouch as a shooter in college shooting 40% from 3. But Tyus biggest asset was his shot selection and his very smart play. The dude basically never makes mistakes and is very good at running an offense. His per 36 assist/TO ratio in the NBA is 6.3/1.7. Hes a steadying presence on both sides of the court. Tyus didnt have the upside potential like Young but was by far a much much safer pick.

[wco81]

Maybe he'll still grow.

Plus once he gets into the NBA, he should get stronger with better training.

Curry has improved his core strength, which helps with those long 3-point attempts.

[ItsThatEasy]

Does the Tyus Jones comp pop up as much if they didn't look alike?

[bwgood77]

Does the Tyus Jones comp pop up as much if they didn't look alike?

I love Tyus Jones and wished for a while the Suns would go after him when he was third on the depth chart..very efficient and good shooter. But the comp isn't a very good one imo.

Young shoots over triple the 3 ptrs that Jones did in college, and gets to the line over twice as much.

Young plays on a crap team facing all the defensive pressure, while Jones played on a stacked team* without much of that. Jones shot barely over 40% from 2 in conf play where Young shoots over 48% from there in conf play.

*I mean Jones played on a national championship with college studs and now pros such as Okafor, Winslow, Ojeleye and Plumlee.

No one on Okla will sniff the NBA. These same guys were 11-20 last year.

[Duke4life831]

Does the Tyus Jones comp pop up as much if they didn't look alike?

I love Tyus Jones and wished for a while the Suns would go after him when he was third on the depth chart..very efficient and good shooter. But the comp isn't a very good one imo.

Young shoots over triple the 3 ptrs that Jones did in college, and gets to the line over twice as much.

Young plays on a crap team facing all the defensive pressure, while Jones played on a stacked team* without much of that. Jones shot barely over 40% from 2 in conf play where Young shoots over 48% from there in conf play.

*I mean Jones played on a national championship with college studs and now pros such as Okafor, Winslow, Ojeleye and Plumlee.

No one on Okla will sniff the NBA. These same guys were 11-20 last year.

I agree with a lot of this but just a few things to clear up. He played only 6 games with Semi, Semi transferred early in that season and the Plumlee he played with was Marshall, which is the worst Plumlee brother out of the 3. But yes Tyus played on a much more stacked team, he also shared the backcourt with a senior Quin Cook.

[Cammo101]

Does the Tyus Jones comp pop up as much if they didn't look alike?

No. They are pretty different.

[ItsThatEasy]

Does the Tyus Jones comp pop up as much if they didn't look alike?

I love Tyus Jones and wished for a while the Suns would go after him when he was third on the depth chart..very efficient and good shooter. But the comp isn't a very good one imo.

Young shoots over triple the 3 ptrs that Jones did in college, and gets to the line over twice as much.

Young plays on a crap team facing all the defensive pressure, while Jones played on a stacked team* without much of that. Jones shot barely over 40% from 2 in conf play where Young shoots over 48% from there in conf play.

*I mean Jones played on a national championship with college studs and now pros such as Okafor, Winslow, Ojeleye and Plumlee.

No one on Okla will sniff the NBA. These same guys were 11-20 last year.

Yup, comps between guys who look alike happen every year but this one is particularly egregious to me. Almost as bad as Blake Griffin and Aaron Gordon.

[kb02]

Does the Tyus Jones comp pop up as much if they didn't look alike?

No. They are pretty different.

Not just looks. Same height, same athleticism, same general profile. Vision n handles are about the same.

Young is slightly quicker, shoots better, n is a better facilitator, because he can distribute from both hands.

Both get swallowed up by NBA size n athleticism.

[Hoopz Afrik]

Does the Tyus Jones comp pop up as much if they didn't look alike?

Nope. They don't play alike at all.

[kb02]

Colin Sexton > Trae Young

http://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/22435711

[nolang1]

Last year Oklahoma played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the country, lost 8 games by 5 points or fewer, and brought everyone back except the point guard that Young replaced (and added another freshman who's started every game). Not as massive a turnaround as simply comparing the records makes it seem.

Young is good enough that you can evaluate him on his own merits without having to pretend he joined this downtrodden team. Their next five highest guys in three-point attempts after Young were shooting 44, 43, 38, 41, and 40 percent going into tonight; that's good no matter who's setting you up. OU was 39th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency last season, and given the number of minutes returning they've got some competent defenders surrounding Young.

Who cares if it's not "as massive" of a turnaround? It's a sizable turnaround nonetheless. They went from a clear losing team to a clear winning team, ranked #4 in the nation. The jump in three point shooting of the supporting cast has a lot to do with the attention Trae draws.

The whole point is they were not a clear losing team. Oklahoma was a few bounces away from being an 18-win NCAA tournament team last year, and they were the 9th best team in a conference that had 7 teams ranked in the top 30 by KenPom rankings and the 8th place team ranked 42nd. OU was #65, better than quite a few power conference schools that had winning records.

Trae Young is leading the country in scoring and assists as a freshman. Those are much simpler things you can look at to point out that he's good than citing the crappy AP poll or simply looking at a team's won-loss record without factoring in the competition and margin of victory to make some narrative that he miraculously turned around a program that made the Final Four two seasons ago.

Oklahoma is 2-8 in the last 10 games, so that's a pretty resounding victory for statistically based rankings such as Kenpom (where Oklahoma is now #38 and was around 20th before the 2-8 stretch) rather than the AP poll that had OU 4th. Without this 'turnaround' narrative, it's hard to make a case for him in the top 3 or so.

Does the Tyus Jones comp pop up as much if they didn't look alike?

No, I said something about Tyus Jones before Young's stock started taking off with the idea being that Young can legitimately play and even if he were to remain slotted as a late first/early second-rounder (which I felt was largely based on a visual bias rather than his ability) he'd be good enough to find a spot in the NBA, similar to what's happened with Jones.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I have never seen a player slump so radically after starting so well. I believe he has an injury.

[Duke4life831]

I have never seen a player slump so radically after starting so well. I believe he has an injury.

Hes falling back to his norm, its not really all that crazy. This is what you get with Young, the dude can get hot and looks great, but he has stretches where he looks horrible offensively. The main reason for this is his shot selection, his shot selection was always a huge issue for him and a bad shot selection leads to very inconsistent play. And its not just some recent slump its been about half of his season now.

1st 13 games of the year:
29/4/10 with 4 TOs on 47/40/86 shooting splits

last 12 games of the year:
28/4/8 with 6.5 TOs on 40/34/83 shooting splits

I know Ive gotten a ton of flack for focusing so much on conference stats vs the entire season stats, but Ive seen this story way too many times before. Guys play a really weak schedule to start the season with a couple solid opponents mixed in with basically 0 tape on them and they look amazing and the hype explodes. Then conference play comes around, it becomes game in game out against much better opposition and teams actually start scouting and you see the numbers come back down to earth.

[The-Power]

Really don't know what to do with him. I still believe he has incredibly upside offensively with his fantastic skills, but I can't deny that he's a huge bust risk. Taking him very high is a gamble. Either you make every other team before you regret to pass on such a talented kid, or you're making yourself a fool for drafting him this high and throwing your franchise's rebuild back.

Can't say that playing on a team with such limited teammates helps me to evaluate him properly. His current play, with this type of shot selection, overambitious passes and defense won't fly in the NBA, that's for sure. On the other hand, him playing like that might actually be the best chance for Oklahoma to win games. A lot of his success will depend on his mentality and ability to recognize what makes an impact. Can't say I'm certain about him having that ability and mentality – far from it – but I also can't rule it out.

[Duke4life831]

Really don't know what to do with him. I still believe he has incredibly upside offensively with his fantastic skills, but I can't deny that he's a huge bust risk. Taking him very high is a gamble. Either you make every other team before you regret to pass on such a talented kid, or you're making yourself a fool for drafting him this high and throwing your franchise's rebuild back.

Can't say that playing on a team with such limited teammates helps me to evaluate him properly. His current play, with this type of shot selection, overambitious passes and defense won't fly in the NBA, that's for sure. On the other hand, him playing like that might actually be the best chance for Oklahoma to win games. A lot of his success will depend on his mentality and ability to recognize what makes an impact. Can't say I'm certain about him having that ability and mentality – far from it – but I also can't rule it out.

I still have him pretty low on my board, but I still view it like I did before. After Wendell Carter is off the board which I think he goes at 7, I think you have a ton of safe picks with pretty low ceilings. So I couldnt blame a team at say 8 or 9 for taking a gamble on Young. But ya I think a GM could look dumb say taking him at 9 and he flames out then say Mikal Bridges goes at 10 and he looks like Otto Porter 2.0. Hes definitely that boom or bust guy, I still think he busts though.

[The-Power]

Really don't know what to do with him. I still believe he has incredibly upside offensively with his fantastic skills, but I can't deny that he's a huge bust risk. Taking him very high is a gamble. Either you make every other team before you regret to pass on such a talented kid, or you're making yourself a fool for drafting him this high and throwing your franchise's rebuild back.

Can't say that playing on a team with such limited teammates helps me to evaluate him properly. His current play, with this type of shot selection, overambitious passes and defense won't fly in the NBA, that's for sure. On the other hand, him playing like that might actually be the best chance for Oklahoma to win games. A lot of his success will depend on his mentality and ability to recognize what makes an impact. Can't say I'm certain about him having that ability and mentality – far from it – but I also can't rule it out.

I still have him pretty low on my board, but I still view it like I did before. After Wendell Carter is off the board which I think he goes at 7, I think you have a ton of safe picks with pretty low ceilings. So I couldnt blame a team at say 8 or 9 for taking a gamble on Young. But ya I think a GM could look dumb say taking him at 9 and he flames out then say Mikal Bridges goes at 10 and he looks like Otto Porter 2.0. Hes definitely that boom or bust guy, I still think he busts though.

That's a fair assessment. I'm more skeptical about Bagley, Ayton and Bamba than you are, so to me Young's offensive ceiling could be appealing enough to take the risk with him once Doncic, Jackson and Porter (assuming full health) are off the board. But that's me talking from my couch – not sure I'd really pull the trigger on this gamble if I was in charge of a franchise and Young keeps giving me reasons to doubt his floor.

[Duke4life831]

Really don't know what to do with him. I still believe he has incredibly upside offensively with his fantastic skills, but I can't deny that he's a huge bust risk. Taking him very high is a gamble. Either you make every other team before you regret to pass on such a talented kid, or you're making yourself a fool for drafting him this high and throwing your franchise's rebuild back.

Can't say that playing on a team with such limited teammates helps me to evaluate him properly. His current play, with this type of shot selection, overambitious passes and defense won't fly in the NBA, that's for sure. On the other hand, him playing like that might actually be the best chance for Oklahoma to win games. A lot of his success will depend on his mentality and ability to recognize what makes an impact. Can't say I'm certain about him having that ability and mentality – far from it – but I also can't rule it out.

I still have him pretty low on my board, but I still view it like I did before. After Wendell Carter is off the board which I think he goes at 7, I think you have a ton of safe picks with pretty low ceilings. So I couldnt blame a team at say 8 or 9 for taking a gamble on Young. But ya I think a GM could look dumb say taking him at 9 and he flames out then say Mikal Bridges goes at 10 and he looks like Otto Porter 2.0. Hes definitely that boom or bust guy, I still think he busts though.

That's a fair assessment. I'm more skeptical about Bagley, Ayton and Bamba than you are, so to me Young's offensive ceiling could be appealing enough to take the risk with him once Doncic, Jackson and Porter (assuming full health) are off the board. But that's me talking from my couch – not sure I'd really pull the trigger on this gamble if I was in charge of a franchise and Young keeps giving me reasons to doubt his floor.

Ya its a lot easier making these statements on keyboards than it is actually handing these guys contracts haha. And ya I think Im probably one of the highest on Bagley and Bamba, while being one of the lowest on Young. So we definitely see them a little differently. Im very curious to see how these guys stocks rise and fall come the tournament since we seem to always have 1 or 2 guys rise or fall during then, then also see how these guys rise and fall during workouts. I think its going to be really hard to predict the top 6-7 in this draft, I think its going to be a crazy draft.