Bagley or Ayton – Who do you rank higher?

[The-Power]

Both bigs with lots of potential who put up great numbers in college thus far. Both are also deficient on defense in their early college days and come with some concerns regarding the translation of their offensive impact to the next level in my eyes. Ayton has the superior frame while Bagley has the better motor. Both are currently ranked the highest among big men by various scouts and mock drafts.

If you had to choose one of them in a draft today, who do you pick? Disregard specific teams and their needs for the poll.

I'm interested to see if there is a clear tendency among the posters on this board and if this changes over the next weeks and months. Also, it feels relevant to compare and discuss these two players in one thread as this is probably going to be a persistent topic throughout the year.

[DirtyDez]

If you've been following the forum it's near unanimous for Bagley. He's the most complete player and his motor is excellent.

[GimmeDat]

I'm going Bagley, but I do think it's close, because Ayton is a monster.

The thing about Bagley, you're banking on him continuing to refine and develop his skill-set, but he shows all the signs that give you confidence he will. Ayton has all the tools in the world but the defensive issues as much as anything are a bit of a buzz kill and feel more likely to persist in to his NBA career.

Seems pretty clear that Bagley/Doncic/Ayton is the standout top 3, though.

[Mr B]

Give me the guy with the motor. And it’s not like Bagley is a tweener. He’ll have prototypical height and weight for an NBA PF. As last by as he has the motor, the size, and the desire he’ll improve on defense if he lands with the right coach.

[PLO]

As a prospect? It surely has to be Ayton.

[jonjames]

How you score matters in the league. Bagley is basically an athletic high energy garbage man at this point. He has poor touch around the rim his shot attempts going towards the basket looks off balance and akward and he can barely flush alley oops cleanly without having to catch and then regather to dunk it. I don't see him being a good shot blocker for a guy with his height and athleticism either.

Ayton has legit center size at 7'1 with more room to fill out his frame and can run the floor really well. Possesses a more natural offensive skillset and awareness than bagley with range extending out to 3pt. His recent showing against unlv showed much more than bagley has all season.

Unless Bagley all of a sudden learns how to shoot at the next level im going with Ayton.

[Duke4life831]

How you score matters in the league. Bagley is basically an athletic high energy garbage man at this point. He has poor touch around the rim his shot attempts going towards the basket looks off balance and akward and he can barely flush alley oops cleanly without having to catch and then regather to dunk it. I don't see him being a good shot blocker for a guy with his height and athleticism either.

Ayton has legit center size at 7'1 with more room to fill out his frame and can run the floor really well. Possesses a more natural offensive skillset and awareness than bagley with range extending out to 3pt. His recent showing against unlv showed much more than bagley has all season.

Unless Bagley all of a sudden learns how to shoot at the next level im going with Ayton.

Bagley is shooting 78% at the rim so far this year. I don't see how that is poor touch. Also you say Ayton has range out to the 3 point range but Bagley needs to learn how to shoot. Both players are 5/17 from 3 so far this season. They have shown identical shooting ability from 3 point range this season. So I don't get how you can say one has range to 3 while the other needs to learn how to shoot.

[clyde21]

The more I watch Bags the more I am impressed. I'll take Bagley here.

Ayton probably has a higher ceiling, but I'm not sure he has the motor and drive to consistently play at that level in the NBA.

[jonjames]

How you score matters in the league. Bagley is basically an athletic high energy garbage man at this point. He has poor touch around the rim his shot attempts going towards the basket looks off balance and akward and he can barely flush alley oops cleanly without having to catch and then regather to dunk it. I don't see him being a good shot blocker for a guy with his height and athleticism either.

Ayton has legit center size at 7'1 with more room to fill out his frame and can run the floor really well. Possesses a more natural offensive skillset and awareness than bagley with range extending out to 3pt. His recent showing against unlv showed much more than bagley has all season.

Unless Bagley all of a sudden learns how to shoot at the next level im going with Ayton.

Bagley is shooting 78% at the rim so far this year. I don't see how that is poor touch. Also you say Ayton has range out to the 3 point range but Bagley needs to learn how to shoot. Both players are 5/17 from 3 so far this season. They have shown identical shooting ability from 3 point range this season. So I don't get how you can say one has range to 3 while the other needs to learn how to shoot.

I meant from like 3-9 feet particulary. I would hope bagley is shooting 78% at the rim with all the dunks and bunnies hes been getting with dukes offense. Im going by the eye test I didn't realize they had similar shooting stats.Bagley looks way off on his shot out from range meanwhile Ayton although he maybe shooting the same percentage his shots rim out you get the feeling it could have gone in. The only area I feel certain with Bagley translating in the league is his rebounding. His 2nd jump is super quick.

[PLO]

Someone will fall in love with Bagley at the top of the draft, it would be a circumstance out of the usual for him to fall out of the top 5, but Ayton has HOF measurables, something Bagley just can't match as a prospect. Add in the fact of Bagley's rawness and lack of self-creation and I can't see how anyone would have Bagley ahead of him unless you are just drafting on a terrier-mentality. Bagley edges Ayton in that easily and in game IQ but everywhere else Ayton is ahead as a prospect. Now if Bagley does a Tatum and grows an inch or two this season that might change but right now Ayton has to be ahead.

I mean I can foresee very easily a situation in which Bagley goes top 3 and for me that's the most realistic outcome right now, but as a prospect? Ayton and its not that close, despite the fact he has a 10 cent head on top of that million dollar body.

[CptCrunch]

Bagley's ceiling is a whole lot higher than Ayton's. His ability to dominate with his motor while being raw makes him special.

Ayton looks like an uncoordinated Towns with a DRob physique while he plays.

[No-Man]

Seems pretty clear that Bagley/Doncic/Ayton is the standout top 3, though.

Still taking Porter ahead of Bagley and Ayton without much doubt, other than the back not checking out or been chronic which is difficult to know or predict.

Give me the guy with the motor. And it’s not like Bagley is a tweener. He’ll have prototypical height and weight for an NBA PF. As last by as he has the motor, the size, and the desire he’ll improve on defense if he lands with the right coach.

Oh Bagley is a tweener for sure, he just isn't a SF/PF one, he is basically a C offensively with PF size and esp length, and PF game on defense, probably the worst type of tweener, the thing is that he has game still.

To me it's Bagley, Ayton is probably the safest bet to be good, just cause of sheer size, and filling a more traditional mold, but Bagley has a different type of ceiling his motor, quick twitch athleticism and in time hopefully ability to handle it and face-up, shoot too.

I think that Bagley is a hard player to build around though, but guys with his skill normally are, whereas Ayton probably is easier esp if he shoots, as some have mentioned both of them aren't stretching all the way to 3 yet and Ayton takes way too many mid-rangers and has a super flat shot that doesn't feel good at all to me to be honest.

Both suck on defense, Ayton is probably better at defending PnR and switching outside but Bagley has the feet to do a much better job whenever he learns positioning, angles and all that stuff, both are awful near the basket.

In the end I think Bagley can be sort of what Amar'e was, although he is a different athlete, less power and more elastic maybe, if he does more handling and improves there maybe something similar to Blake, although he is clearly less skilled, and Ayton I am not sure, he just isn't that dynamic offensively, I see him if the shooting translates as something similar to what Aldridge, Pau Gasol or Jermaine O'Neal have been, all of those bigs have had nice careers, but to me the other guy has a different type of ceiling even if they are less plugable (harder to plug-in and play) and more fit dependent.

[PLO]

Bagley's ceiling is a whole lot higher than Ayton's. His ability to dominate with his motor while being raw makes him special.

Ayton looks like an uncoordinated Towns with a DRob physique while he plays.

Wow, I would have said the opposite, Ayton's ceiling is way higher while Bagley's floor much more a certain thing than Ayton's.

[No-Man]

How you score matters in the league. Bagley is basically an athletic high energy garbage man at this point. He has poor touch around the rim his shot attempts going towards the basket looks off balance and akward and he can barely flush alley oops cleanly without having to catch and then regather to dunk it. I don't see him being a good shot blocker for a guy with his height and athleticism either.

Ayton has legit center size at 7'1 with more room to fill out his frame and can run the floor really well. Possesses a more natural offensive skillset and awareness than bagley with range extending out to 3pt. His recent showing against unlv showed much more than bagley has all season.

Unless Bagley all of a sudden learns how to shoot at the next level im going with Ayton.

Bagley's shot looks more trasladable to me than Ayton's, I mean, for starters I have seen him going from the handle to his pull-up at least in several occassions, Ayton hasnt done that all year long yet.

Ayton might have the fame as a shooter but his shot is flat, Bagley has that weird ugly 2-motion shot but that's less damaging on a guy with his size and his shot has solid arc, as for his touch, it's fine, not as soft as Ayton's maybe, but he hits a ton around the rim.

I get why people think Ayton is the better prospect with the higher ceiling, has a better frame and looks the part of what you want from a Center traditionally, but to me ceiling wise there is no question that Bagley has to be the guy, he is rawer, but his ability to at least try things on the move, on ball, change completely the possibilities with him on offense.

Look at the guys that are generational bigs these days, all of them are **** un real with the ball in their hands, and if a big isn't generational or incredible I want 0 part of him with a top pick (the value just isnt there, there are way too many serviciable Centers to be had for no money and assets).

To me Ayton looks really solid, just not as dynamic as guys like Embiid, Jokic or Towns with the ball.

[No-Man]

Bagley's ceiling is a whole lot higher than Ayton's. His ability to dominate with his motor while being raw makes him special.

Ayton looks like an uncoordinated Towns with a DRob physique while he plays.

Wow, I would have said the opposite, Ayton's ceiling is way higher while Bagley's floor much more a certain thing than Ayton's.

Why? I think it's the complete opposite

Ayton's floor gotta be the highest after Doncic's in this class and maybe Bridges', that's basically his selling point to me.

[PLO]

Bagley's ceiling is a whole lot higher than Ayton's. His ability to dominate with his motor while being raw makes him special.

Ayton looks like an uncoordinated Towns with a DRob physique while he plays.

Wow, I would have said the opposite, Ayton's ceiling is way higher while Bagley's floor much more a certain thing than Ayton's.

Why? I think it's the complete opposite

Ayton's floor gotta be the highest after Doncic's in this class and maybe Bridges', that's basically his selling point to me.

But on the other hand you have Bagley with a motor that will translate straight away to the NBA and has an immediate skill that will also translate in rebounding but is likely capped in terms of outcome because of ball-handling and also because he's a tweener. His upside to me is predicated on having an NBA 3-point shot. He can polish quite a bit of his game but you can't put the lipstick on the pig that are his handles.

Ayton's upside is ridiculous in comparison - but his floor is really tied to his mentality. Like on defence it just seems a lot of the time he doesn't realise he's 7 foot tall especially near the rim.

That's fair enough if you think Ayton's floor is higher than Bagley's, to me a matter of perception, but I can't see how you'd say Bagley's ceiling is higher than Ayton's. A guy that tall with that reach who moves like that? That's a unicorn.

[No-Man]

Wow, I would have said the opposite, Ayton's ceiling is way higher while Bagley's floor much more a certain thing than Ayton's.

Why? I think it's the complete opposite

Ayton's floor gotta be the highest after Doncic's in this class and maybe Bridges', that's basically his selling point to me.

But on the other hand you have Bagley with a motor that will translate straight away to the NBA and has an immediate skill that will also translate in rebounding but is likely capped in terms of outcome because of ball-handling and also because he's a tweener. His upside to me is predicated on having an NBA 3-point shot. He can polish quite a bit of his game but you can't put the lipstick on the pig that are his handles.

Ayton's upside is ridiculous in comparison - but his floor is really tied to his mentality. Like on defence it just seems a lot of the time he doesn't realise he's 7 foot tall especially near the rim.

That's fair enough if you think Ayton's floor is higher than Bagley's, to me a matter of perception, but I can't see how you'd say Bagley's ceiling is higher than Ayton's. A guy that tall with that reach who moves like that? That's a unicorn.

Bagley's upside is predicated on him improving his handles to take adv of his athletic gifts and been paired with a primary that exploits him in the PnR game, sort of like STAT

Rebounding is nice but if he is a tweener and all he brings is that, his floor is quite low.

I am not really sure we are seeing the same with Ayton, physicality doesn't really change either you have it or not, he clearly doesn't, saying that he doesn't really how big he is and all that are just excuses, people in general don't improve on that, it's a character issue and you are who you are.

How does Ayton move with the ball? like, he hasn't really shown ability to put it on the floor from the perimeter and his shooting to me feels worse than Bagley's.

I don't really get the unicorn label, he can't protect the rim, neither does he stretch the floor, at times and it might be projectable, or play from the perimeter, which is basically the definition for the term.

For me it's a matter of dynamism, Bagley has better tools in my mind to be a factor on offense, Ayton looks solid, good post awareness and moves, passing out of the post, can face-up a little and hit some shots, will defend PnR well and can switch onto smalls at times, etc... really high floor to be a solid starting big.

But solid is just not cutting it to me.

I think people see his frame, body and athleticism and forget to judge the guy's game, like yeah, he can move awesome from the mid-post and has a solid post game, but how many guys do damage on that alone in the league? like even Embiid or Towns that are as good as it gets at it basically spend half the time facing up and driving from the 3pt line.

[PLO]

^ ^ I think that post is fair enough however a few things: if you're drafting Ayton to put the ball on the floor from the perimeter I would question the reasons you are drafting him in the first place. Embiid's turnover issues this year are a lot to do with this thing where he thinks he CAN drive from the perimeter like a guard against a set defence, or even put the ball on the floor fullstop. Fair enough he's been reasonably successful at it in broken play.

I think the attraction with Ayton is many will believe his mentality/lack of physicality can be changed. Its easier to change that than to make someone grow 5 more inches or get a longer reach, however I agree that its likely it cannot be changed and he is who he is.

I think his floor could be low because of his mentality - however I see a safe floor with Bagley because of the same reason - he has that in spades, but I now have a better understanding of your rationale for saying the opposite.

[No-Man]

if you're drafting Ayton to put the ball on the floor from the perimeter I would question the reasons you are drafting him in the first place. Embiid's turnover issues this year are a lot to do with this thing where he thinks he CAN drive from the perimeter like a guard against a set defence, or even put the ball on the floor fullstop. Fair enough he's been reasonably successful at it in broken play.

This is fair and solid conter-argument for what my reasons are, in the end you draft him because the upside if he does that even just at times is awesome, Embiid might need to cut it down a bit but he clearly can do it if needed sometimes.

[The-Power]

If you've been following the forum it's near unanimous for Bagley.

Ayton got a lot of buzz as the potential 1st pick at the start of the season/pre-season on this board as well and the poll is currently 11 to 7. It's obviously not even close to near unanimous.