Bagley or Ayton – Who do you rank higher?

[CptCrunch]

Let me put it this way, if Bagley can polish his offensive game within 2-3 years, he becomes unstoppable with his motor and never give up mentality. Motor and mentality are literally two things that can never be taught.

Might as well drop my current tier list.

Tier 1: Doncic

Tier 1.5: Bagley

Tier 2: Ayton, Jackson

Tier 3: Bamba, Porter (Injury risk, and we have 0 freaken idea of how he plays against college athletes)

[The Master]

I would say that depends on fit, in this case this is very relevant - if Bulls or Suns got first draft pick, then I would say they will choose Ayton over Bagley (and maybe Doncic over Ayton - Bulls), he's natural C with bigger shotblocking potential, so fit is naturally better for Markkanen or a team like Suns who will play smallball with Jackson and Warren. On the other hand, Kings probably would like select Bagley more. I don't know what Atlanta would do, I agree they should take BPA and run, but maybe they'll look for a fit with Collins, he's nice prospect, who knows - and here also Ayton is better fit potential-wise.

I wouldn't say Bagley is more C than PF on O - right now, maybe, but I'm pretty convinced recently (good ft%) that he will develop nice jumper.

I'm writing this because Bulls have Dunn and LaVine (and they will give extension for Zach I guess), Suns have Booker, Warren or Jackson, and even Kings have multiple guards (Fox, Hield, Bogdanovic, ofc Hill) - so I guess fit can be very relevant in this draft even more than scouts personal preferences.

But to answer this question about my preferences I would wait a moment, I can imagine Ayton playing much better on D in second half of a season, also, Sean Miller said that he wants to use Ayton more on offense, and he was much more involved on O in UNLV game and I like what I saw. If Ayton become first option on O, I guess he will be very dominant on this level tbh.

About Ayton's shooting, right now he's 71%ft shooter and ~49% (!) from midrange* (almost 40% of all his shots), this is very serious number for 19yo kid, and he still should be better finisher than Bagley around a rim.

Ayton has more versatile skillset right now, bigger athletic potential, even bigger potential on D (and Bagley isn't good on D either right now), he's still very good rebounder, and he's better scorer - I think what gives Bagley an edge is a team he plays with, let's imagine Ayton with much better ballhandlers and Bagley without these alleyoops game by game. Bagley's motor is what makes this comparison really close.

* this is hoop-math stat, and this can be outlier because there are only two categories - around a rim fgs and 2pt jumpers, but Ayton isn't shooting different kind of shots (no floaters like Bagley etc.) so I guess this is accurate, because this is what eyetest suggests, he has 69% 2pt fg and he's shooting this mid range jumpers a lot, so he has to be very efficient with them. I don't get why his shooting is that underrated.

[nolang1]

Bagley is sufficiently younger than Ayton that I’d choose him first as long as they’re producing at relatively equal levels.

[The Master]

Bagley is sufficiently younger than Ayton that I’d choose him first as long as they’re producing at relatively equal levels.

7 months of difference is not a big deal I think, I would say this is natural difference between some freshmen.

More I would say he has similar production being much more raw but this is easy to counter-argue.

[nolang1]

Bagley is sufficiently younger than Ayton that I’d choose him first as long as they’re producing at relatively equal levels.

7 months of difference is not a big deal I think, I would say this is natural difference between some freshmen.

You’re free to think that but I’m aware of the age difference and the impact that has when it comes to players who are 18-19 years old. It’s certainly a more meaningful distinction than anything you can point to in their individual stats; if you want to use the differing amounts of team success as a tiebreaker that works too.

[The Master]

I just don't see it in this case, Bagley could stay in HS but he is normal freshman, like Ayton. Jackson Jr is over a year younger than Bamba or Ayton, and I see this argument there.

But like I wrote, more accurate is to claim they have similar production level while Bagley has more space to develop his skillset, but I think on O, Bagley's production is quite overrated (he's playing with four future NBA players and good ballhandlers what helps him a lot with his garbage points etc.), while Ayton is even better than 20ppg on 67%ts, but Arizona doesn't have any Guard-C game what is the most striking, Ristic takes him space, and the way he was used had been bad at the start of a season.

Ayton has 84% (!) fg around a rim, for comparison Bagley has 78%, Towns had 74%, and Davis had 87%fg, just lets imagine him playing with Duval or Allen instead of Trier and Cartwright. And like I said, his shooting is still somehow underated.

[nolang1]

But like I wrote, more accurate is to claim they have similar production level while Bagley has more space to develop his skillset

Because he is *younger* and as a result has played fewer seasons of high school/AAU basketball. More importantly, Bagley has more room to develop physically.

but I think on O, Bagley's production is quite overrated (he's playing with four future NBA players and good ballhandlers what helps him a lot with his garbage points etc.), while Ayton is even better than 20ppg on 67%ts, but Arizona doesn't have any Guard-C game what is the most striking, Ristic takes him space, and the way he was used had been bad at the start of a season.

Talent-wise you’re talking about the preseason #1 and #2 teams. Bagley’s best games have come against good competition when his teammates were struggling badly, and he too has had to share space with another big.

Ayton has 84% (!) fg around a rim, for comparison Bagley has 78%

Doesn’t seem like a huge difference to me (either one or two shots at this point of the season) especially after considering the aforementioned age/physical difference and the competition the two have faced thus far.

[The Master]

More importantly, Bagley has more room to develop physically.

Good point, but this isn't related to their age difference. Carter is even yuonger than Bagley and he's like 265lbs big?

Talent-wise you’re talking about the preseason #1 and #2 teams. Bagley’s best games have come against good competition when his teammates were struggling badly, and he too has had to share space with another big.

I don't think Arizona is talent-wise second-best team in college right now, Arizona's second best player is ... Trier? On the other hand, Duke has potential four-five first rounders next year with Duval, Trent, Carter and Allen. And Carter is much better than Ristic, and he's much better fit to Bagley.

I'm not saying Bagley isn't great - because he is, but like for me very important in this comparison is how both are used in their respective teams. Bagley is playing with great ballhandlers, fast pace, much space, so no one would say he's not used well - Wildcats on the other hand have no two-man game with bigs because Trier is very limited as playmaker and Cartwright just can't create an offense in HCO, they have great roster to fast-pace basketball, but they are very average in it, and so on. I mentioned Ayton's FG around a rim because it clearly shows how he's misused, he's as dominant around a rim as Bagley (or even more) but most of his shots are midrange Js. And he's still >60%fg scorer, because he's very good shooter, but people still argue he's not that good in this area despite a fact he has something like ~45%fg from midrange as 19yo with suprsingly good footwork.

So let's imagine how it would look like if Ayton plays for Krzyzewski in Duke, gets tons of garbage and transition points, hits his jumpers frequently, while being first option in scoring in HCO, and on the other hand imagine Bagley playing with Trier who likely won't pass a ball to ... nobody?

To be honest, because of a motor maybe I would choose Bagley, I don't want to downplay his potential because he's great prospect, his attitude is amazing, but right now Ayton is clearly more skilled player on O with, despite his current level, bigger potential on D. And I won't be suprised if many teams during workouts and draft night think about it the same way.

For me right now this is more coin toss but IMHO Ayton is better fit for teams that will select on top of the draft nest year.

[The-Power]

About Ayton's shooting, right now he's 71%ft shooter and ~49% (!) from midrange* (almost 40% of all his shots), this is very serious number for 19yo kid, and he still should be better finisher than Bagley around a rim.

[...]

* this is hoop-math stat, and this can be outlier because there are only two categories - around a rim fgs and 2pt jumpers, but Ayton isn't shooting different kind of shots (no floaters like Bagley etc.) so I guess this is accurate, because this is what eyetest suggests, he has 69% 2pt fg and he's shooting this mid range jumpers a lot, so he has to be very efficient with them. I don't get why his shooting is that underrated.

As far as I can see, anything that isn't directly at the rim is counted as a jumper (i.e. that includes hookshots in the post). Otherwise Bamba wouldn't have 42% of his shots declared as 2pt-jumpers while converting 45% of them. Or Bagley who shoots 43% on those shots (33% of his FGA). So we should take those numbers with a grain of salt for big men who operate in the post.

[CptCrunch]

Hoops-math parses boxscore to estimate. The numbers should not be used to compare two prospect. They are generally pretty garbage in accuracy and highly dependent on the play by play score keeper for that game.

They can be used to gauge in general how a prospect scores. This is not true for the NBA distance shooting stats from stat.nba.com, those are actually camera tracked stats.

[The Master]

As far as I can see, anything that isn't directly at the rim is counted as a jumper (i.e. that includes hookshots in the post). Otherwise Bamba wouldn't have 42% of his shots declared as 2pt-jumpers while converting 45% of them. Or Bagley who shoots 43% on those shots (33% of his FGA). So we should take those numbers with a grain of salt for big men who operate in the post.

Yes, I know, but like I mentioned, Ayton mainly plays around a rim or outside, so I checked highlights (3pointers, midrange jumpers):

1/3, 2/6 - UNLV
1/1, 2/2 - LBSU
0/1, 1/2 - SMU
1/4, 2/4 - NC State
1/4, 1/1 - Bakersfield
0/0, 3/5 - UMBC
0/2, 0/3 - Northern Arizona
1/2, 1/2 - Purdue

So in these 7 matches he was 5/17 from 3pt and 12/25 from midrange. 25% of his shots are from midrange and 17% are 3pts, for comparison, 28% of AD's shots this season are from 10-23ft, and 11% are three pointers.

It's small sample size of course, but it clearly shows how much time Ayton spends outside, and that to this moment, he's very effficient from midrange. But he rarely misses any shot around a rim, so I don't understand why he is used that way.

[nolang1]

Good point, but this isn't related to their age difference. Carter is even yuonger than Bagley and he's like 265lbs big?

It's not strictly related to weight. Even though Bagley draws the more perimeter-oriented matchup, Carter has been getting played off the court against teams that go small, so he's clearly not there in terms of strength and conditioning either.

I don't think Arizona is talent-wise second-best team in college right now, Arizona's second best player is ... Trier?

Who has a similar college resume to Grayson Allen and like Allen was thought of as a NPOY contender before the season, yes.

On the other hand, Duke has potential four-five first rounders next year with Duval, Trent, Carter and Allen.

This is due to how good the players are for their age rather than how good they are outright. Carter and Duval have higher draft stock but a much smaller advantage over Ristic and Jackson-Cartwright in terms of their effectiveness as college players in 2017-18. If Gary Trent Jr. is a first-rounder it'll be based on what he did in high school since he's shooting 35% from the field this year. You could say Bagley has better teammates and I wouldn't argue, but so much better that it overrides the difference between one team having three losses and the other being undefeated with two wins over top 10 teams? That's a major stretch.

So let's imagine how it would look like if Ayton plays for Krzyzewski in Duke, gets tons of garbage and transition points, hits his jumpers frequently, while being first option in scoring in HCO, and on the other hand imagine Bagley playing with Trier who likely won't pass a ball to ... nobody?

I would guarantee you that last June the Cavs outscored the Warriors in halfcourt possessions that didn't involve an offensive rebound, so this continued insistence that someone is less of a player for scoring easy baskets he creates through his outlier athleticism and activity level is baffling (especially when the two players in question have displayed the same proficiency from three-point range). I don't think it would be an immense difference if the two had switched places; I was already giving some credit to Ayton by saying the two are producing at a more or less similar level (despite Bagley creating a higher volume of opportunities close to the basket) and that I'd give the edge to the younger player. Also you should make up your mind as to whether Bagley is a garbageman or the #1 scoring option in the halfcourt because those terms are mutually exclusive; a garbageman isn't having plays called for him.

[DirtyDez]

If you've been following the forum it's near unanimous for Bagley.

Ayton got a lot of buzz as the potential 1st pick at the start of the season/pre-season on this board as well and the poll is currently 11 to 7. It's obviously not even close to near unanimous.

Definitely surprised by the voting. I meant from the posters who have discussed them it seemed like they were in clear favor of Bagley.

[The Master]

Who has a similar college resume to Grayson Allen and like Allen was thought of as a NPOY contender before the season, yes.

Trier is very good college player but that doesn't change a fact that he's very limited playmaker and such a ballhog this season, in last 5 matches (when they started to play against normal competition) he has ~2ast and ~4tov per game. On the other hand, Grayson Allen as a secondary playmaker against MST, Texas, Portland State, Indiana and Florida had 27 assists and 9 turnovers... I'm not saying Trier is a bad player but to this moment he's not as good fit for Ayton as people thought he can be.

This is due to how good the players are for their age rather than how good they are outright. Carter and Duval have higher draft stock but a much smaller advantage over Ristic and Jackson-Cartwright in terms of their effectiveness as college players in 2017-18.

Nooo, this is just wrong, Carter is better than Ristic in everything except ft shooting (much better defender, better scorer, even better outside game), and the same with Duval and PJC except shooting, and it's not like shooting is big argument for PJC, he's not a scorer at all. Carter is in fact quite underrated because he's like fourth option on offense in his team, and Duval shows potential to be elite role player in NBA with his athleticism and playmaking. PJC and Ristic are solid college players but they are nowhere near as prospects and as players to Duval and Carter. In fact, the less Arizona plays with Ristic and Ayton, the better they are, it's just not clicking.

If Gary Trent Jr. is a first-rounder it'll be based on what he did in high school since he's shooting 35% from the field this year. You could say Bagley has better teammates and I wouldn't argue, but so much better that it overrides the difference between one team having three losses and the other being undefeated with two wins over top 10 teams? That's a major stretch.

I don't even talk about their team results because this is much more complicated than Bagley vs Ayton comparison. What I want to say is that beacuse of great ballhandlers and Duke's system Bagley can show his full potential while Ayton cannot. Let's imagine Ayton who gets much more touches around a rim and more touches generally - he would be more dominating, wouldn't he? And even Sean Miller admitted they should use Ayton more on offense, so it's even hard to discuss it.

Also you should make up your mind as to whether Bagley is a garbageman or the #1 scoring option in the halfcourt because those terms are mutually exclusive; a garbageman isn't having plays called for him.

No, this isn't exclusive, David Robinson was ATG in scoring easy points and still whole Spurs system was created on his scoring and passing. Bagley had performances when you were wondering when he scored these 25 pts but it's hard to deny he's first option on offense recently, because of his great second half performances. And I'm not saying that his finishing around a rim and feeling of the game isn't amazing and doesn't help him - because it is impressive, but Ayton also has potential to be elite NBA finisher, but this is not used as much as it should be.

So like I wrote before - when I watch Bagley I can say he's used very well by Coach K, but while I'm watching Ayton, I just can't say the same about him and his team. And I think this can be relevant to their draft positions because for me right now Ayton is more skilled than Bagley on O, but their production because of context mentioned above is very similar.

But again, for me they are on the same tier because they both have similar potential, so it's not like I disagree with you in general.

[nolang1]

I don't even talk about their team results because this is much more complicated than Bagley vs Ayton comparison. What I want to say is that beacuse of great ballhandlers and Duke's system Bagley can show his full potential while Ayton cannot. Let's imagine Ayton who gets much more touches around a rim and more touches generally - he would be more dominating, wouldn't he? And even Sean Miller admitted they should use Ayton more on offense, so it's even hard to discuss it.

I'd say that has more to do with activity level than teammates or coaching. Bagley constantly makes himself a target by filling lanes in transition and cutting more often (which opens up more driving lanes for teammates since potential help defenders have to stay attached to him). Ayton is more likely to pick-and-pop or remain stationary, and I don't see it as a huge selling point that he's out on the perimeter more often when he's bigger than Bagley and not a demonstrably better outside shooter. It's not a matter of differing offensive philosophies that one should continue moving if the initial post-up or whatever isn't there - it just takes an outlier in terms of motor and athleticism to actually be able to do that on almost every single possession.

[Justwar]

I think it's a farce to say anything about Bagley playing with all these better players because they don't have tremendous spacing. Ad had spacing, so did towns but his game inside took till the end of the year. He was a 3pt shooter in hs. Ayton for long term development needs to be sent to the bench every jumper he shoots because he needs to learn how to use that size regardless if he can stretch the d in college

[nybluemeadow]

Ayton is ranked higher. He reminds me of Hakeem or David Robinson. Bagley reminds me of Chris Webber.

[SirChurros]

Bagley's poise and patience for someone his age is what amazes me more than his skillset. I have yet to see him get rattled in pressure situations.

[shakes0]

NBA draft now has Ayton 1 and Bagley 2.

At this point I would say Ayton is the better prospect while Bagley is the better player. But its really splitting hairs, they're so close.

[clyde21]

Ayton is riskier, but provides more potential return at his best. Problem is, Ayton screams to be a guy that won't necessarily look like the best version of himself for long stretches. Like an Andre Drummond type.

I'll take Marvin Bagley here, but it'll all depend on how risk averse you are and whether you think you have the system and environment to get the best out Ayton.