Bagley’s Duke Teamates ala Simmons’ Tigers Teamates

[PhilBlackson]

This comparison doesn't make sense on any level.

[Justwar]

I don't feel like reading all the comments but the few I did I'll comment on. Simmons had a team that underachieved. I can't slam k until they lose in the tournament otherwise they will be favorite regardless. Between now and March is often when guys get it. What I never liked about simmons is he basically quit on his college. Simmons did play the 4 just like Bagley. But Bagley shoots better. We don't know able handlers, defense and all that because they actually have a true pg. But he also has a team with mismatched pieces. They don't run enough shooters around Bagley for him to have space. Shares the paint with a true center that is not athletic. I seem to remember LSU having a athletic c who can shoot a little

[PLO]

There's so much wrong with this post I don't know where to start, but I'll take a stab. Jaren Jackson is in this draft and is basically in a contest with Bagley for who goes higher in the draft. That's what he has to do with this thread.

No, please read. The thread is about whether Bagley's Duke teammates are as bad as Simmons' LSU teammates were. I said not quite but it's closer than people would think based on how many NBA prospects are on each squad; Duke has more NBA prospects but there are many upperclassmen who are strictly better college players than freshmen who may have more potential down the line. Given the vast difference in team success and less vast difference in teammate ability, I said that Bagley is a slightly better player in college than Simmons was. This is in no way controversial; Simmons wasn't the SEC player of the year nor was he first team All-American even though the crop of college players that year was so weak that Malcolm Brogdon would go on to win ROY the following season while averaging 10 points per game.

If you want to talk about Bagley vs. Jaren Jackson, there are plenty of other threads for that.

So the reference to screens and curls basically says Simmons has teammates and a coach who runs plays. I think that applies every where else in the NBA.

Yeah, teammates who are actually good enough to put pressure on the defense when Simmons can't do that on his own. Joel Embiid is the best player a top 3 pick has gotten to start his career with since David Robinson. Are you trying to say the Sixers stop running plays when Embiid comes out of the game, and that's why they score at what would be a league-worst rate when Simmons is in the game without Embiid?

but he's still second in rookies in ppg in a historically great year for them, but I guess that must all be down to Joel Embiid.

Ding ding ding. Simmons shoots 60% when Embiid's in the game with him and 47% when he's not. Simmons' turnover rate jumps from 10% to 16% when Embiid's not in the game. Without the presence of a player who requires opposing teams to change their defensive scheme to slow him down (spoiler: there are not too many such players in the league, particularly on the sort of teams that are typically choosing at the top of the draft) Simmons would be very inefficient on offense. This is why you don't see Brett Brown trying to stagger Simmons' and Embiid's minutes too much even though the Sixers have a very weak bench.

You seem to be under the misapprehension he's just going to waltz into the NBA and just start dunking over everyone. Like over Drummond? Cousins? Embiid? Whiteside? Steven Adams? Clint Capella? Gobert? These are the guys he will be trying to dunk over given that's his game. What are these guys going to do to him on the other end of the floor? It will be pure pawnage.

No, I simply said Bagley has been a better college player than Simmons was and has done so at a younger age, making it likely he will be a better NBA player. Barring injury, Bagley as a rookie will be nearly 2 years younger than Simmons is now, and as I have made extremely clear, Simmons would be struggling quite a bit if he didn't have the luxury of playing off of Embiid. Bagley is a power forward who is significantly quicker than the players you mentioned.

You also seem to have a love of advanced stats that basically say nothing; Zaza Pachulia has an offensive rating much much higher than Embiid. Is he the better player? Defensive rating? Who even references that as a stat or even any of those advanced defensive metrics without citing context first.

You just provided less context than I did. Pachulia's offensive rating is much worse when he doesn't play with Curry and/or Durant, just as Simmons' is much worse when he doesn't play with Embiid. You clearly seem to realize that playing alongside better players makes a player like Pachulia put up better stats but are blinded by homerism in Simmons' case.

I agree Bagley is the better college player than Simmons, but then Jalen Brunson has an excellent chance of winning POTY and is not a lottery prospect. This forum is about projecting players to the NBA, not about who is the best college player. I've been awed by some of Bagley's college performances and stated so in this forum. Doesn't mean he's anywhere near Simmons as an NBA prospect though.

Joel Embiid is a significantly worse player when he's not sharing a floor with Simmons, so that cuts both ways. Possibly it says something about the 76ers supporting cast than Simmons lack of talent. Simmons is top 10 in the league in steals, 4th in assists, 5th in defensive win shares, 8th in 2point fg made, first on his team in win shares, and top 50 in the NBA as a rookie in player impact, but you can continue to cherry pick stats if you want to. He's also playing a position he's never played before and putting up numbers not seen since Magic Johnson's debut. You are also quite welcome to think Bagley will have anywhere near the impact Simmons is currently having at whatever age you think, if there was a poll asking GMs who they would take right now to start a team I'm pretty confident it would be a 30 nil landslide in Simmons favor.

Your comment about Brown staggering minutes is frankly just made up. They basically share the floor at the start and end of games and very little in between.

If Bagley is a power forward where is his shot going to come from? He's shooting 62% from FT in college. Simmons, a non-shooter, was at 67%. College FT % is the best indicator of shooting success in the NBA. I can see the potential for Bagley to be a shooter in the NBA given his form is sort of OK but its no given. Brandon Ingram was another Duke alum who many thought would be an NBA shooter given his form was OK and he was above 40% from 3 in college. Problem was he was shooting about Simmons' rate from FT and consequently hasn't got it together in the NBA. AND Bagley is shooting substantially lower than either Ingram or SImmons from the FT line in college. If Bagley is going to be a PF he's going to have to be next to a true stretch 5 like Porzingis because you rubbish Simmons for lack of spacing, well its going to be much more of an issue for Bagley in the NBA if he ends up on a team with a traditional 5 with him playing as a four.

I mentioned Paculia without context because that was the point, ie a comment on you citing stats but without any context at all, but seemingly that one went over your head.

[PLO]

I don't feel like reading all the comments but the few I did I'll comment on. Simmons had a team that underachieved. I can't slam k until they lose in the tournament otherwise they will be favorite regardless. Between now and March is often when guys get it. What I never liked about simmons is he basically quit on his college. Simmons did play the 4 just like Bagley. But Bagley shoots better. We don't know able handlers, defense and all that because they actually have a true pg. But he also has a team with mismatched pieces. They don't run enough shooters around Bagley for him to have space. Shares the paint with a true center that is not athletic. I seem to remember LSU having a athletic c who can shoot a little

The problem is Bagley is not a better shooter, at least not in terms of the one area that projects to NBA success, from the FT line. There's a long line of players who were acceptable from college 3 but with mediocre FT numbers who many thought would be NBA shooters because in college "it goes in from 3". Two of the most recent ones are on the Lakers: Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, who both shot around Simmons mark from FT in college. Bagley is significantly worse from FTs than any of them. I'm not saying Bagley won't at some stage become a decent shooter in the NBA but given he's swimming against the tide on this one its really not an encouraging start.

Please, do not compare Bagley's handles with Simmons' or indeed their respective teammates; its a gulf of talent on both sides.

Basically at this stage Bagley doesn't have the shot or the handles to be a good PF in the NBA so projecting him there is pretty unrealistic. He also doesn't have the physical measurables or defensive acumen to be a 5. What you are left with is a guy who at his upside is a pure scorer but a major deficit in many other areas. This is not to say he cannot be a good NBA player its just that he needs to go to a particular situation to succeed.

[nolang1]

I'm not sure if this is your meaning but Bagley is nowhere near better than Simmons.

I agree Bagley is the better college player than Simmons,

OK, thanks for eventually learning to read I guess.

but then Jalen Brunson has an excellent chance of winning POTY and is not a lottery prospect. This forum is about projecting players to the NBA, not about who is the best college player. I've been awed by some of Bagley's college performances and stated so in this forum. Doesn't mean he's anywhere near Simmons as an NBA prospect though.

If Jalen Brunson was having this kind of season as an 18-year-old, 165 pound freshman, I'd certainly have thought him a better prospect than Simmons based on productivity, contribution to team success, and room for improvement based on age and physical development.

Joel Embiid is a significantly worse player when he's not sharing a floor with Simmons, so that cuts both ways.

No, Embiid himself is not significantly worse. His usage rate goes up and his true shooting percentage decreases the amount one would expect from a player with such high usage (.553 TS% and 38% usage, which is comparable to what one sees from Russell Westbrook or DeMarcus Cousins in their highest-usage seasons). The team does worse because Robert Covington (a more impactful player than Simmons) typically goes out at the same time. And of course, "significantly worse" in this case still leaves the Sixers with a very healthy +4.1 net rating in those minutes as opposed to the -7.6 net rating with Simmons and without Embiid. That's bigger than the net rating difference between the Celtics and the Kings, so to say it cuts both ways as if there's any sort of equivalence is ludicrous.

He's also playing a position he's never played before and putting up numbers not seen since Magic Johnson's debut.

You must have never watched Simmons in college or high school if you think he's never played point forward before. He chose to attend LSU in large part because they'd let him play the way he wants to play.

If Bagley is a power forward where is his shot going to come from? He's shooting 62% from FT in college. Simmons, a non-shooter, was at 67%. College FT % is the best indicator of shooting success in the NBA. I can see the potential for Bagley to be a shooter in the NBA given his form is sort of OK but its no given. Brandon Ingram was another Duke alum who many thought would be an NBA shooter given his form was OK and he was above 40% from 3 in college. Problem was he was shooting about Simmons' rate from FT and consequently hasn't got it together in the NBA.

Brandon Ingram is shooting 39% on threes this season, so I don't think you know what you're talking about. I get that the games are on at odd hours in Australia and you only watch Ben Simmons, but it doesn't take that long to look up someone's stats. Even if Ingram had been shooting a lower percentage, he's over a year younger than Simmons so to say he "hasn't got it together" as if it implies any sort of finality is nonsensical.

If Bagley is going to be a PF he's going to have to be next to a true stretch 5 like Porzingis because you rubbish Simmons for lack of spacing, well its going to be much more of an issue for Bagley in the NBA if he ends up on a team with a traditional 5 with him playing as a four.

I already explained thoroughly enough how the Sixers' offense falls flat on its face when Simmons is asked to play without a stretch 5 who's also a dominant low-post presence (if Embiid were only a stretch 5 teams could neutralize a Simmons-Embiid pick and roll rather easily by switching it) and the best defensive center in the league (which creates more fast-break opportunities where Simmons can thrive).

If for some reason Bagley can't shoot from outside, it's less of a handicap for someone in his role to be a non-shooter than it is to have a non-shooter initiating the offense. Bagley is not nearly as ball-dominant as Simmons and can play with a lead guard who can shoot. If Bagley plays with a traditional 5 his team will dominate the offensive glass; that is currently happening in college where Duke has the 3rd-most efficient college offense since 2002 even though Bagley plays with a traditional 5 and a point guard with a busted jumper.

[Roddy B for 3]

Is Amare an awful comp for Bagley? (Not NBA Amare, prospect Amare)

[Justwar]

Bagley free throw percentage has no relation to his nba shooting percentage. It's a mental thing or tired free throws. Cousins shot bad from the line and developed into a good shooter. Jr Smith. I watch whether teams guard you period from the outside. Some guys are great college shooters it doesn't translate because of the shot release being slow or a bad release point

[Duke4life831]

Is Amare an awful comp for Bagley? (Not NBA Amare, prospect Amare)

I was young when Amare came in so Im basing this more on Amare's first few years in the league. He is not close to the rebounder than Bagley is. He was a good straight line athlete but Bagley is much more fluid of an athlete than Amare was. And I know this is kind of becoming like a cop out for Bagley, but Amare's motor wasnt on the same level as Bagley's. Skill wise I think Bagley has the better base of skills compared to Amare, even though Bagley is still very raw skill wise. If you want to say Bagley is a souped up version of Amare I can see it.

[Roddy B for 3]

Is Amare an awful comp for Bagley? (Not NBA Amare, prospect Amare)

I was young when Amare came in so Im basing this more on Amare's first few years in the league. He is not close to the rebounder than Bagley is. He was a good straight line athlete but Bagley is much more fluid of an athlete than Amare was. And I know this is kind of becoming like a cop out for Bagley, but Amare's motor wasnt on the same level as Bagley's. Skill wise I think Bagley has the better base of skills compared to Amare, even though Bagley is still very raw skill wise. If you want to say Bagley is a souped up version of Amare I can see it.

Amare won ROY and is a potential HOF. You must have Bagley as a top 1 prospect this year, Duke4life831.

[Duke4life831]

Is Amare an awful comp for Bagley? (Not NBA Amare, prospect Amare)

I was young when Amare came in so Im basing this more on Amare's first few years in the league. He is not close to the rebounder than Bagley is. He was a good straight line athlete but Bagley is much more fluid of an athlete than Amare was. And I know this is kind of becoming like a cop out for Bagley, but Amare's motor wasnt on the same level as Bagley's. Skill wise I think Bagley has the better base of skills compared to Amare, even though Bagley is still very raw skill wise. If you want to say Bagley is a souped up version of Amare I can see it.

Amare won ROY and is a potential HOF. You must have Bagley as a top 1 prospect this year, Duke4life831.

My college top 5 as of right now is:
1: Bagley
2: Bamba
3: Ayton
4: Porter
5: Jackson

Actually going back I have Bagley as my best prospect since AD. I would take Bagley coming out of college over Simmons, KAT (to be honest on this one, I was low on KAT coming out, my bad on that one) and Wiggins. So Im really high on Bagley, always have been since he was in high school. Probably a hint of bias in there as well haha.

I was a huge Amare fan, I do think he was also put into the perfect situation for his career once Nash and Dantoni got there. But with that said, if Amare never got hurt he wouldve been a sure fire HOF. Not saying Bagley is a lock HOF, but ya I think hes a better prospect than a 20-21 year old Amare.

[Cammo101]

Is Amare an awful comp for Bagley? (Not NBA Amare, prospect Amare)

Style of play wise they are pretty different. Amare was an attack the rim animal in the DeAndre Jordan mold, Bagley is quite a bit more skilled and not nearly as aggressive. But, prospect level and ceiling wise this isn't so far off.

[Roddy B for 3]

Is Amare an awful comp for Bagley? (Not NBA Amare, prospect Amare)

I was young when Amare came in so Im basing this more on Amare's first few years in the league. He is not close to the rebounder than Bagley is. He was a good straight line athlete but Bagley is much more fluid of an athlete than Amare was. And I know this is kind of becoming like a cop out for Bagley, but Amare's motor wasnt on the same level as Bagley's. Skill wise I think Bagley has the better base of skills compared to Amare, even though Bagley is still very raw skill wise. If you want to say Bagley is a souped up version of Amare I can see it.

Do you think Bagley can become a high volume 3pt shooter?

[Duke4life831]

Is Amare an awful comp for Bagley? (Not NBA Amare, prospect Amare)

I was young when Amare came in so Im basing this more on Amare's first few years in the league. He is not close to the rebounder than Bagley is. He was a good straight line athlete but Bagley is much more fluid of an athlete than Amare was. And I know this is kind of becoming like a cop out for Bagley, but Amare's motor wasnt on the same level as Bagley's. Skill wise I think Bagley has the better base of skills compared to Amare, even though Bagley is still very raw skill wise. If you want to say Bagley is a souped up version of Amare I can see it.

Do you think Bagley can become a high volume 3pt shooter?

I think he can become a solid to good 3pt shooter. I think in his prime he might be a guy that makes 1.5 - 2 threes a game on anywhere between 36-39%.

[Duke4life831]

I wrote this on the Chicago board. This is how I think his career will progress for the first few years.

If he progresses the way I think he will, the first year or so hes going to be a rebounding and rim running big. Then I think his jumper will become more consistent year 2 or 3 and he will add a pick and pop aspect to his game. Then year 4-5 I think he will become a bigger force off the dribble and creating his own shot.

[bwgood77]

I wrote this on the Chicago board. This is how I think his career will progress for the first few years.

If he progresses the way I think he will, the first year or so hes going to be a rebounding and rim running big. Then I think his jumper will become more consistent year 2 or 3 and he will add a pick and pop aspect to his game. Then year 4-5 I think he will become a bigger force off the dribble and creating his own shot.

Some Suns fans compare Bagley to Amare (prime Amare when he was unstoppable). They seem to have the same weaknesses, but the strengths are undeniable. Bagley a better rebounder too I believe. Do you think that comp is off or reasonable? He was rookie of the year and a monster is second year and a complete monster his third before messing up his knee the following year and never being quite the same.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudam01.html

Edit: Sorry, I didn't even notice when I came into the thread this had just been talked about, just came to post this...so nvm.

[nolang1]

I wrote this on the Chicago board. This is how I think his career will progress for the first few years.

If he progresses the way I think he will, the first year or so hes going to be a rebounding and rim running big. Then I think his jumper will become more consistent year 2 or 3 and he will add a pick and pop aspect to his game. Then year 4-5 I think he will become a bigger force off the dribble and creating his own shot.

Some Suns fans compare Bagley to Amare (prime Amare when he was unstoppable). They seem to have the same weaknesses, but the strengths are undeniable. Bagley a better rebounder too I believe. Do you think that comp is off or reasonable? He was rookie of the year and a monster is second year and a complete monster his third before messing up his knee the following year and never being quite the same.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudam01.html

I think the main thing to consider before getting into the differences in their attributes is that Amar'e was shooting more than 10 mid-range jumpers per every three he attempted, so even if one thinks Bagley is an inferior version of Amar'e he can easily make up the difference through better shot selection.

Is Amare an awful comp for Bagley? (Not NBA Amare, prospect Amare)

Style of play wise they are pretty different. Amare was an attack the rim animal in the DeAndre Jordan mold, Bagley is quite a bit more skilled and not nearly as aggressive. But, prospect level and ceiling wise this isn't so far off.

This is largely the difference between having Steve Nash/CP3 as your point guard and having Trevon Duval. It opens up a lot of lanes to roll to the basket if the defense has to worry about the point guard pulling up off the dribble.

[PLO]

I'm not sure if this is your meaning but Bagley is nowhere near better than Simmons.

I agree Bagley is the better college player than Simmons,

OK, thanks for eventually learning to read I guess.

but then Jalen Brunson has an excellent chance of winning POTY and is not a lottery prospect. This forum is about projecting players to the NBA, not about who is the best college player. I've been awed by some of Bagley's college performances and stated so in this forum. Doesn't mean he's anywhere near Simmons as an NBA prospect though.

If Jalen Brunson was having this kind of season as an 18-year-old, 165 pound freshman, I'd certainly have thought him a better prospect than Simmons based on productivity, contribution to team success, and room for improvement based on age and physical development.

Joel Embiid is a significantly worse player when he's not sharing a floor with Simmons, so that cuts both ways.

No, Embiid himself is not significantly worse. His usage rate goes up and his true shooting percentage decreases the amount one would expect from a player with such high usage (.553 TS% and 38% usage, which is comparable to what one sees from Russell Westbrook or DeMarcus Cousins in their highest-usage seasons). The team does worse because Robert Covington (a more impactful player than Simmons) typically goes out at the same time. And of course, "significantly worse" in this case still leaves the Sixers with a very healthy +4.1 net rating in those minutes as opposed to the -7.6 net rating with Simmons and without Embiid. That's bigger than the net rating difference between the Celtics and the Kings, so to say it cuts both ways as if there's any sort of equivalence is ludicrous.

He's also playing a position he's never played before and putting up numbers not seen since Magic Johnson's debut.

You must have never watched Simmons in college or high school if you think he's never played point forward before. He chose to attend LSU in large part because they'd let him play the way he wants to play.

If Bagley is a power forward where is his shot going to come from? He's shooting 62% from FT in college. Simmons, a non-shooter, was at 67%. College FT % is the best indicator of shooting success in the NBA. I can see the potential for Bagley to be a shooter in the NBA given his form is sort of OK but its no given. Brandon Ingram was another Duke alum who many thought would be an NBA shooter given his form was OK and he was above 40% from 3 in college. Problem was he was shooting about Simmons' rate from FT and consequently hasn't got it together in the NBA.

Brandon Ingram is shooting 39% on threes this season, so I don't think you know what you're talking about. I get that the games are on at odd hours in Australia and you only watch Ben Simmons, but it doesn't take that long to look up someone's stats. Even if Ingram had been shooting a lower percentage, he's over a year younger than Simmons so to say he "hasn't got it together" as if it implies any sort of finality is nonsensical.

If Bagley is going to be a PF he's going to have to be next to a true stretch 5 like Porzingis because you rubbish Simmons for lack of spacing, well its going to be much more of an issue for Bagley in the NBA if he ends up on a team with a traditional 5 with him playing as a four.

I already explained thoroughly enough how the Sixers' offense falls flat on its face when Simmons is asked to play without a stretch 5 who's also a dominant low-post presence (if Embiid were only a stretch 5 teams could neutralize a Simmons-Embiid pick and roll rather easily by switching it) and the best defensive center in the league (which creates more fast-break opportunities where Simmons can thrive).

If for some reason Bagley can't shoot from outside, it's less of a handicap for someone in his role to be a non-shooter than it is to have a non-shooter initiating the offense. Bagley is not nearly as ball-dominant as Simmons and can play with a lead guard who can shoot. If Bagley plays with a traditional 5 his team will dominate the offensive glass; that is currently happening in college where Duke has the 3rd-most efficient college offense since 2002 even though Bagley plays with a traditional 5 and a point guard with a busted jumper.

Embiid turns it over something like 30% more without Simmons on the floor.

Au contraire: it seems its you who never watched Simmons in college - he was played mostly as a pure 4. He never had point duties at all, the only thing he ever did in terms of being a point forward was in transition.

I'm not in Australia.

Brandon Ingram is shooting 46% from the field which for a wing is a bad %. I rate Ingram's upside but you can't claim he's any sort of shooter right now on the back of those numbers.

Offensively Simmons plays pretty well with a rim-running big like Richaun Holmes, but yeah we do get into trouble without Joel on the other end. Embiid is obviously our most important player, and a lot of that is on the back of his defense which leads me to.....

Whatever Bagley offers on offense he's going to be a huge liability defensively outside of defensive boards. I think he's a top 10 guy in this draft but top 3? Top 1? That's a massive reach IMO.

[Duke4life831]

I wrote this on the Chicago board. This is how I think his career will progress for the first few years.

If he progresses the way I think he will, the first year or so hes going to be a rebounding and rim running big. Then I think his jumper will become more consistent year 2 or 3 and he will add a pick and pop aspect to his game. Then year 4-5 I think he will become a bigger force off the dribble and creating his own shot.

Some Suns fans compare Bagley to Amare (prime Amare when he was unstoppable). They seem to have the same weaknesses, but the strengths are undeniable. Bagley a better rebounder too I believe. Do you think that comp is off or reasonable? He was rookie of the year and a monster is second year and a complete monster his third before messing up his knee the following year and never being quite the same.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudam01.html

I was pretty young when Amare first came into the league so my recollection may not be the best. But I don't think it's a stretch to think Bagley can be what Amar'e was minus the heavy amount of mid range jumpers and more 3pt jumpers. I also think with him being a more fluid athlete, I think he has potential to be more of a threat off the dribble. Plus I do think he is going to be a much better rebounder.

[PLO]

I was young when Amare came in so Im basing this more on Amare's first few years in the league. He is not close to the rebounder than Bagley is. He was a good straight line athlete but Bagley is much more fluid of an athlete than Amare was. And I know this is kind of becoming like a cop out for Bagley, but Amare's motor wasnt on the same level as Bagley's. Skill wise I think Bagley has the better base of skills compared to Amare, even though Bagley is still very raw skill wise. If you want to say Bagley is a souped up version of Amare I can see it.

Amare won ROY and is a potential HOF. You must have Bagley as a top 1 prospect this year, Duke4life831.

My college top 5 as of right now is:
1: Bagley
2: Bamba
3: Ayton
4: Porter
5: Jackson

Actually going back I have Bagley as my best prospect since AD. I would take Bagley coming out of college over Simmons, KAT (to be honest on this one, I was low on KAT coming out, my bad on that one) and Wiggins. So Im really high on Bagley, always have been since he was in high school. Probably a hint of bias in there as well haha.

I was a huge Amare fan, I do think he was also put into the perfect situation for his career once Nash and Dantoni got there. But with that said, if Amare never got hurt he wouldve been a sure fire HOF. Not saying Bagley is a lock HOF, but ya I think hes a better prospect than a 20-21 year old Amare.

I'm pretty sure we had a big difference of opinion on Lonzo Ball and/or Josh Jackson last year. This year you have the two "top 5" guys who I think will be pretty significant reaches at the top of your board. No disrespect meant, just a difference of opinion which powers debate on this forum.

[nolang1]

Embiid is obviously our most important player, and a lot of that is on the back of his defense which leads me to.....

Whatever Bagley offers on offense he's going to be a huge liability defensively outside of defensive boards. I think he's a top 10 guy in this draft but top 3? Top 1? That's a massive reach IMO.

Saying someone is going to be a huge liability defensively outside of being an elite defensive rebounder is like saying someone is going to be a huge liability offensively outside of shooting 38% on threes. Kevin Love and Blake Griffin have managed to not be huge defensive liabilities, and Bagley is much quicker than either of them were.