AC Green's Thesis: Can College Careers Predict NBA Winners?

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AC Green's Thesis: Can College Careers Predict NBA Winners? 

Post#1 » by dorkestra » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:24 am

for his masters in applied stats

http://repository.stcloudstate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1002&context=stat_etds

Abstract
This is a study of predicting success in the NBA based on college experience, and repredicting
after the rookie year of professional basketball. All first and second round picks
from the 1985 draft through the 2005 draft are included in overall analysis, with 841 players
having had at least one year of NBA experience and have played on a Division I NCAA team.
The primary endpoints used in analyses are Player Efficiency Rating (PER), win shares, and
win shares per 48 minutes. This paper will predict the success of picks using their draft pick,
college statistics (both qualitative and quantitative), and physical qualities (height and
weight). Also, rookie year statistics are used to update the analysis to determine if any
additional information is gained after one year of professional basketball. This study
concludes that a statistical analysis of college statistics predicted performance well using win
shares per 48 minutes, but did not improve predicted performance with PER and win shares
for first round draft picks. In addition, one of the predictive formulas was able to predict
performance of the top 100 NBA prospects with higher accuracy than the actual draft.
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Re: AC Green's Thesis: Can College Careers Predict NBA Winners? 

Post#2 » by doordoor123 » Fri Apr 27, 2018 1:19 pm

I was speed-reading it, but it’s definitely an interesting read. There are some holes though. For instance the game has changed at both the college and NBA level. The problems with predicting the future based on the past is that the past is always changing. A meteor can hit half the Earth at any time and it would be an ever changing event that hasn’t happened in the past. Even look at the recent past, players who were once tweeners and didn’t even get a shot in the are succeeding. There is always a constantly changing emphasis on which skills are valuable, not necessarily based on numbers. There seems to be some valuable stuff in here though. Will definitely give it a slower read with more attention in the future.
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Re: AC Green's Thesis: Can College Careers Predict NBA Winners? 

Post#3 » by eminence » Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:31 pm

Hmm, I guess the main thing I took was that big mans stats seemed to translate a bit better (of those included). Makes some sense to me, more physical/less skill dependent.
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Re: AC Green's Thesis: Can College Careers Predict NBA Winners? 

Post#4 » by The-Power » Fri Apr 27, 2018 6:03 pm

Hard to believe that what I read was indeed a Master's thesis for Applied Statistics.
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Re: AC Green's Thesis: Can College Careers Predict NBA Winners? 

Post#5 » by DrPsyche2 » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:03 am

inhighschool wrote:
Hello,
I'm pursuing a degree in Sports Management and need help with my project:
Are there any similar articles / research papers?

Auto-highlighted citation ____________________________________________________________________________________ writemyessaytoday


Check Fisher Digital Publications: Explaining NBA Success for Players with Varied College by Cody Ashley. And this one >
The Length and Success of NBA Careers: Does College Production Predict Professional Outcomes? (Authors: Dennis Coates, Babatunde Oguntimein).
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Re: AC Green's Thesis: Can College Careers Predict NBA Winners? 

Post#6 » by atlantabbq99 » Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:26 pm

In short.... Yes

Among all the sport, basketball has the best in scouting and predicting players' success.

All NBA MVPs are lottery picks, its very rare for a mid round pick or lower to get MVP votes in there career.

Majority of All Stars are first round picks.

This is unlike in the NFL or MLB where you can get MVPs in the 5th round.
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Re: AC Green's Thesis: Can College Careers Predict NBA Winners? 

Post#7 » by Almond2Oak » Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:59 pm

:lol:

No... this is what happens when people have way to much time during a pandemic. College production (or lack) has zero correlation to nba success.
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Re: AC Green's Thesis: Can College Careers Predict NBA Winners? 

Post#8 » by Stillwater » Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:43 pm

atlantabbq99 wrote:In short.... Yes

Among all the sport, basketball has the best in scouting and predicting players' success.

All NBA MVPs are lottery picks, its very rare for a mid round pick or lower to get MVP votes in there career.

Majority of All Stars are first round picks.

This is unlike in the NFL or MLB where you can get MVPs in the 5th round.

just a few examples? Kawhi 15th in 2011 his record of awards speaks for itself, Butler 30th in 2011 5 time allstar
Lou Williams was picked 45th and won 6th man 3 times.
Marc Gasol 48th in 07 3 time allstar dpoy all nba 1st team etc
there are a plethora of NBA all stars that were taken outside the lottery and a few over the last 20 years that
were MVP caliber players even if they didnt win it.
last years MVP was not a lottery pick
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Re: AC Green's Thesis: Can College Careers Predict NBA Winners? 

Post#9 » by Nazrmohamed » Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:48 pm

doordoor123 wrote:I was speed-reading it, but it’s definitely an interesting read. There are some holes though. For instance the game has changed at both the college and NBA level. The problems with predicting the future based on the past is that the past is always changing. A meteor can hit half the Earth at any time and it would be an ever changing event that hasn’t happened in the past. Even look at the recent past, players who were once tweeners and didn’t even get a shot in the are succeeding. There is always a constantly changing emphasis on which skills are valuable, not necessarily based on numbers. There seems to be some valuable stuff in here though. Will definitely give it a slower read with more attention in the future.


What?!!! That was as confusing as Inception was and Tenet is bound to be.
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Re: AC Green's Thesis: Can College Careers Predict NBA Winners? 

Post#10 » by Nazrmohamed » Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:03 pm

Stillwater wrote:
atlantabbq99 wrote:In short.... Yes

Among all the sport, basketball has the best in scouting and predicting players' success.

All NBA MVPs are lottery picks, its very rare for a mid round pick or lower to get MVP votes in there career.

Majority of All Stars are first round picks.

This is unlike in the NFL or MLB where you can get MVPs in the 5th round.

just a few examples? Kawhi 15th in 2011 his record of awards speaks for itself, Butler 30th in 2011 5 time allstar
Lou Williams was picked 45th and won 6th man 3 times.
Marc Gasol 48th in 07 3 time allstar dpoy all nba 1st team etc
there are a plethora of NBA all stars that were taken outside the lottery and a few over the last 20 years that
were MVP caliber players even if they didnt win it.
last years MVP was not a lottery pick


Yes but they are outliers. There's still a level of shock involved when realizing where they were drafted. However that shock is lessening yr after yr. If you're 25 and under you probably are used to it but there were less projects.

In the 80s and 90s if you looked at most nba stars you would be watching a guy who was good pretty much from thier first day, spent 3yrs in college and in most cases was a star in college. Nowadays the idea is the guys who stayed weren't good enough to leave after thier first year so even if they looked like a star in yr 2 or 3, you're probably looking at a guy whose cieling is lower. And for a long while results showed that was true.

But I think after yrs of busts in the lottery teams are starting to appreciate upperclassmen more. Its not just relegated to guys drafted from picks 20-30 going to the Spurs

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