Deni Avdija - 2020 draft

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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#201 » by Pistol King » Sat May 9, 2020 10:53 pm

UcanUwill wrote: Taller forward version of Dante Exum. But I dont know really, he played so little and had insignificant role in PROS, I really wouldnt be surprised if hes a huge bust. He reminds me of Exum, where his main selling point from junior tournaments was his playmaker ball handler ability, but is off hand is so weak, you really do not want him to handle the ball at pro level. I mean Exum had injuries, maybe he could have been good, and Avdija is much taller therefor not so dependent on handle.

But I just warn everyone who drafts Euros for good FIBA juniors play when they simultaneously suck in Euroleague or other PRO league. It almost never work out. FIBA juniors is comparable to college, brobably even worse than tier 1 college competition. And with college kids, we have busts all the time, even best college players can be busts. And its the same think with FIBA juniors superstars, and I think their play on EL teams is blatant sneak peak of how they will translate, and so far Avdija hasn't shown anything worthy to believe he is not a bust to me. I know that hes young and teams like raw prospects they can shape, but this is not video game where you train what you want and you gained those skills 100%.

I think you should expect tall Exum, or fast Kyle Anderson, I dont think his offense will be much better than that, its his defense I think will make or break his career.


This is how we should evaluate a prospect? according to how he performs in the second best league in the world, as a 18-19 years old, in a contender team that have a lot of expectations to win now and don't care too much about developing a prospect that is gonna be gone anyway in the next year? I thought about it a lot, and always asking myself whether the other top prospects from this year's draft would be convincing enough to consider them as a top 5 prospects just based on this condition. I'm pretty sure their numbers, their skills and their highlights would be reduced drastically to the point they would look nothing special.

Just imagine putting LaMelo on a situation like this, could he even be able to stay on the flour and see any minutes when he has to play defense each minute and when his shooting is so weak at this point? would he have the same confidence to show off his skills? is someone like Hayes who played in the weakest team in the EuroCup could make such a huge jump and successfully play for one of the best 5 teams in Europe when the expectations, the winning pressure, the defense requirements are so much higher? when we trying to evalue Deni based on his EuroLeague performances, we need to be honest with ourselves and imagine how the other prospects would perform at the same situation as well.

Now, the reason I made your sentence bold is because I have no other choice but to really disagree with the claim that he simultaneously sucked in Euroleague and in his other PRO league, and I'll explain why.

I'll make it clear, Deni didn't start the year well, it was a hard adjustment for him in the EuroLeague and it took time for him to start and make a good impact, I'd also take into account this year was his first full senior season (last year he had some EuroLeauge games but he was still belong to the youth team and wasn't completely with the senior team). but the more the season was progressing the more he make an impressive improvement. If someone can deny that, he 'will probably deny anything related to him and just decide he doesn't like this player and nothing will change his mind.

I checked his minutes and his production and there is a clear evidence he was at his peak in the last 2 months. Which means, he could get better and better:

His 'pro league' numbers the last 8 games, when he started to get big minutes consistently :
30mpg, 16.6 ppg. while having the best BPM on the team (6-2 winning record in this stretch).

You see here numbers of a teen that played a major role in a winning team and had a great impact even in comparison to his high level teammates.

His EuroLeague numbers the last 7 games, when he started to get big minutes consistently :
20mpg, 7.5ppg, while having the best BPM on the team (5-2 winning record in this stretch).

The numbers are less impressive, but still, you see here a teen that is playing 20mpg and scoring some buckets in one of the 5 best teams in Europe, with all the pressure involved, in the second best league in the world. While also having the best plus minus among all the other players which make his positive impact undeniable. I'd also add that he became one of Maccabi's 2-3 best defenders in this games stretch. But that's something you can tell only from an eye test and not by his stats.I read here somewhere that when Maccabi faced injuries he failed to take this opportunity. The last few paragraphs explains why this claim was so misleading.

Now, I believe these numbers are showing this is his current level -right now - in a more accurate way than his season stats suggesting because of the adjustment required for a player his age and his situation. It also shows a positive progressing and his ability to get better and improve.

Now, about his future at the NBA. Personally I think it's really down to how much he can improve his handles. If he can tighten it up to the point he can run an offense consistently at the next level, I think it will skyrocket his ceiling. Unlike some others here, I see with him a high scoring potential (but again, this is down to how much he can tighten up his handles) because of the combination of his size, various ways to make points, offensive agility and speed and the ball handling flashes he has shown that gives me hope there are a lot there you can keep develop. He lacks confidence with his left hand, it needs work, but I've seen him enough times using it and driving with it in a good way to make me believe he can develop it to the point he would probably not be a high level handler with his left, but still good enough.

Something worth to mention, one month ago I was reading an interview with the coach who coached Deni at the FIBA U-20 tournament and know him for many years, his name is Ariel Beit-Halahmy, I quoting his exact words: "In the NBA they view him as a 4 but this is a mistake. He's a guard." This is not some idiot person but someone who is coaching pro basketball for up to 20 years and saw Deni's skills from very closely. If he think someone his size can successfully play as a guard at the next level, it's for a good reason.
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#202 » by UcanUwill » Sun May 10, 2020 6:35 am

Pistol King wrote:
This is how we should evaluate a prospect? according to how he performs in the second best league in the world, as a 18-19 years old, in a contender team that have a lot of expectations to win now and don't care too much about developing a prospect that is gonna be gone anyway in the next year? I thought about it a lot, and always asking myself whether the other top prospects from this year's draft would be convincing enough to consider them as a top 5 prospects just based on this condition. I'm pretty sure their numbers, their skills and their highlights would be reduced drastically to the point they would look nothing special.

Just imagine putting LaMelo on a situation like this, could he even be able to stay on the flour and see any minutes when he has to play defense each minute and when his shooting is so weak at this point? would he have the same confidence to show off his skills? is someone like Hayes who played in the weakest team in the EuroCup could make such a huge jump and successfully play for one of the best 5 teams in Europe when the expectations, the winning pressure, the defense requirements are so much higher? when we trying to evalue Deni based on his EuroLeague performances, we need to be honest with ourselves and imagine how the other prospects would perform at the same situation as well.

Now, the reason I made your sentence bold is because I have no other choice but to really disagree with the claim that he simultaneously sucked in Euroleague and in his other PRO league, and I'll explain why.

I'll make it clear, Deni didn't start the year well, it was a hard adjustment for him in the EuroLeague and it took time for him to start and make a good impact, I'd also take into account this year was his first full senior season (last year he had some EuroLeauge games but he was still belong to the youth team and wasn't completely with the senior team). but the more the season was progressing the more he make an impressive improvement. If someone can deny that, he 'will probably deny anything related to him and just decide he doesn't like this player and nothing will change his mind.

I checked his minutes and his production and there is a clear evidence he was at his peak in the last 2 months. Which means, he could get better and better:

His 'pro league' numbers the last 8 games, when he started to get big minutes consistently :
30mpg, 16.6 ppg. while having the second best BPM on the team (6-2 winning record in this stretch).

You see here numbers of a teen that played a major role in a winning team and had a great impact even in comparison to his high level teammates.

His EuroLeague numbers the last 7 games, when he started to get big minutes consistently (5-2 winning record in this stretch):
20mpg, 7.5ppg, while having the best BPM on the team (5-2 winning record in this stretch).

The numbers are less impressive, but still, you see here a teen that is playing 20mpg and scoring some buckets in one of the 5 best teams in Europe, with all the pressure involved, in the second best league in the world. While also having the best plus minus among all the other players which make his positive impact undeniable. I'd also add that he became one of Maccabi's 2-3 best defenders in this games stretch. But that's something you can tell only from an eye test and not by his stats.I read here somewhere that when Maccabi faced injuries he failed to take this opportunity. The last few paragraphs explains why this claim was so misleading.

Now, I believe these numbers are showing this is his current level -right now - in a more accurate way than his season stats suggesting because of the adjustment required for a player his age and his situation. It also shows a positive progressing and his ability to get better and improve.

Now, about his future at the NBA. Personally I think it's really down to how much he can improve his handles. If he can tighten it up to the point he can run an offense consistently at the next level, I think it will skyrocket his ceiling. Unlike some others here, I see with him a high scoring potential (but again, this is down to how much he can tighten up his handles) because of the combination of his size, various ways to make points, offensive agility and speed and the ball handling flashes he has shown that gives me hope there are a lot there you can keep develop. He lacks confidence with his left hand, it needs work, but I've seen him enough times using it and driving with it in a good way to make me believe he can develop it to the point he would probably not be a high level handler with his left, but still good enough.

Something worth to mention, one month ago I was reading an interview with the coach who coached Deni at the FIBA U-20 tournament and know him for many years, his name is Ariel Beit-Halahmy, I quoting his exact words: "In the NBA they view him as a 4 but this is a mistake. He's a guard." This is not some idiot person but someone who is coaching pro basketball for up to 20 years and saw Deni's skills from very closely. If he think someone his size can successfully play as a guard at the next level, it's for a good reason.


People and even sometimes teams write off prospects after a year in the NBA, Wade Baldwin for exmple. What a guy suppose to do in the NBA, if he cant even play in the Euroleague? Most Euros who panned out played well in Europe, maybe not on top 5 team or they didnt have huge roles, but what I am always looking at, are they outgrowing European competition. To me, the guys like Valanciunas, Nurkic, Saric,or even Bitadze, they didnt have huge roles, but you could tell they are most talented guys on the court and one day will have no business playing in Europe anymore. I look at Avdija and I am not sure I see that at all, like if you told me hes gonna play in Euroleague at the age of 27, as a fan I would not be super exited to see that.
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#203 » by getrichordie » Sun May 10, 2020 8:44 am

You know what? I'm going to eat my words I've said about Avdija. I said he would be able to play-make just a little @ the next level, but I think I'm wrong. I was able to watch some film I haven't seen before and Avdija can definitely handle the rock and is a good operator out of the pick and roll. I'm starting to see what people like about him so much.

If he can defend at a solid level and be good @ operating pick and rolls, you are looking at a legit point-forward at the next level. His handle is actually quite nice and he has good vision and feel for the game and he's good really good athleticism for his size.

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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#204 » by UcanUwill » Sun May 10, 2020 9:37 am

getrichordie wrote:You know what? I'm going to eat my words I've said about Avdija. I said he would be able to play-make just a little @ the next level, but I think I'm wrong. I was able to watch some film I haven't seen before and Avdija can definitely handle the rock and is a good operator out of the pick and roll. I'm starting to see what people like about him so much.

If he can defend at a solid level and be good @ operating pick and rolls, you are looking at a legit point-forward at the next level. His handle is actually quite nice and he has good vision and feel for the game and he's good really good athleticism for his size.



Thats not at all impressive to me, I dont know what you guys see if you think he can handle the ball at NBA level. His vision is good, but handle looks not ready for it at all, and I can name a lot of NBA players with actual good vision that you might not even know, because they are just not good enough to be playmakers - Saric, Bjelica, Valentine.
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#205 » by getrichordie » Sun May 10, 2020 9:51 am

UcanUwill wrote:
getrichordie wrote:You know what? I'm going to eat my words I've said about Avdija. I said he would be able to play-make just a little @ the next level, but I think I'm wrong. I was able to watch some film I haven't seen before and Avdija can definitely handle the rock and is a good operator out of the pick and roll. I'm starting to see what people like about him so much.

If he can defend at a solid level and be good @ operating pick and rolls, you are looking at a legit point-forward at the next level. His handle is actually quite nice and he has good vision and feel for the game and he's good really good athleticism for his size.



Thats not at all impressive to me, I dont know what you guys see if you think he can handle the ball at NBA level. His vision is good, but handle looks not ready for it at all, and I can name a lot of NBA players with actual good vision that you might not even know, because they are just not good enough to be playmakers - Saric, Bjelica, Valentine.


What do you consider a good handle? For a 6'8 guy, your handle doesn't get much tighter than that... his handle isn't flashy by any means but it is functional and effective.
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#206 » by UcanUwill » Sun May 10, 2020 10:03 am

getrichordie wrote:
UcanUwill wrote:
getrichordie wrote:You know what? I'm going to eat my words I've said about Avdija. I said he would be able to play-make just a little @ the next level, but I think I'm wrong. I was able to watch some film I haven't seen before and Avdija can definitely handle the rock and is a good operator out of the pick and roll. I'm starting to see what people like about him so much.

If he can defend at a solid level and be good @ operating pick and rolls, you are looking at a legit point-forward at the next level. His handle is actually quite nice and he has good vision and feel for the game and he's good really good athleticism for his size.



Thats not at all impressive to me, I dont know what you guys see if you think he can handle the ball at NBA level. His vision is good, but handle looks not ready for it at all, and I can name a lot of NBA players with actual good vision that you might not even know, because they are just not good enough to be playmakers - Saric, Bjelica, Valentine.


What do you consider a good handle? For a 6'8 guy, your handle doesn't get much tighter than that... his handle isn't flashy by any means but it is functional and effective.


I dont think thats fuctional handle at all, dribbles with his head down, ables to get away from pick pocketed in junior level, mainly by humpbacking and denying the ball with his sheer size, but so did Cizauskas for example. Thats why he has no role in Maccabi beside defensive tasks, that handle without serious work will not translate to NBA level whatsoever in my opinion.
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#207 » by getrichordie » Sun May 10, 2020 10:14 am

Spoiler:
UcanUwill wrote:
getrichordie wrote:
UcanUwill wrote:
Thats not at all impressive to me, I dont know what you guys see if you think he can handle the ball at NBA level. His vision is good, but handle looks not ready for it at all, and I can name a lot of NBA players with actual good vision that you might not even know, because they are just not good enough to be playmakers - Saric, Bjelica, Valentine.


What do you consider a good handle? For a 6'8 guy, your handle doesn't get much tighter than that... his handle isn't flashy by any means but it is functional and effective.


I dont think thats fuctional handle at all, dribbles with his head down, ables to get away from pick pocketed in junior level, mainly by humpbacking and denying the ball with his sheer size, but so did Cizauskas for example. Thats why he has no role in Maccabi beside defensive tasks, that handle without serious work will not translate to NBA level whatsoever in my opinion.


Not saying The Stepien is the Bible, but they produce generally sound work, IMO.

Handle: Solid handle, though it’s pretty basic – crosses, through legs, hesitations, etc. Can piece together a cross into a through the legs attack (jumper or drive) – on drives out of this, he has pretty good burst, but it’s pretty much a straight-line attack, with little to no adjustment on the fly. Does a nice job keeping the ball pretty low and in control on drives (and also does a nice job keeping his body low on drives as he’s making his move to help pick up speed and not get bumped off his spot, though he gets lower on R handed drives than he does on L handed drives) – R hand dominant, does not feel comfortable handling in tight spaces with L so he often picks up his dribble. However, his crossover (and when he’s dancing a bit with the ball) can get a bit high at times. More of a straight line driver attacker off the bounce – not very shifty / someone who can piece together multiple dribble moves. Does not have great speed when crowded, but does a nice job using his body to shield and bump the defender a bit and has an underrated first step from the standstill. Handling turnovers are rare.


Even Ethan Strauss of The Athletic who is a Deni skeptic said this:

I must confess that I am not a Deni Avdija believer, at least not at the currently fashionable top-5 pick level. He’s got a good handle and passing vision for his size (reportedly 6-foot-9, 220 pounds), but I’m not sold on his shooting ability or defensive impact.
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#208 » by Fischella » Sun May 10, 2020 10:25 am

Seriously, it's straight up sad that someone who has been brought up around eurobasketball can't really even grasp how to evaluate euro prospects
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#209 » by UcanUwill » Sun May 10, 2020 10:29 am

Fischella wrote:Seriously, it's straight up sad that someone who has been brought up around eurobasketball can't really even grasp how to evaluate euro prospects


Please teach me how to evaluate Euro prospects. ANd yeah, cant wait for your course correct take if Avdija underperforms.
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#210 » by Fischella » Sun May 10, 2020 10:34 am

I am not even that high on Deni mate, but suggesting that he hasn't been a good pro, when he is 18-19 and has been a clear plus in a pro league (ISL) and a fine rotation player in EuroLeague (not a stud nor a disaster) for a good team, it's just enough for me to sniff the bias/bull

You don't need to like him but you def do not need to lie either
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#211 » by UcanUwill » Sun May 10, 2020 10:46 am

Fischella wrote:I am not even that high on Deni mate, but suggesting that he hasn't been a good pro, when he is 18-19 and has been a clear plus in a pro league (ISL) and a fine rotation player in EuroLeague (not a stud nor a disaster) for a good team, it's just enough for me to sniff the bias/bull

You don't need to like him but you def do not need to lie either


When did I lie? I cant be low on an Euro now because hes young, I agree that is hard to standout on top 5 Euroleague team when you are 19 years old, but that doesnt mean that we must give him a free pass for everything. I dont see anything special with him, would rather have Dzanan Musa.
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#212 » by getrichordie » Sun May 10, 2020 11:00 am

UcanUwill wrote:
Fischella wrote:I am not even that high on Deni mate, but suggesting that he hasn't been a good pro, when he is 18-19 and has been a clear plus in a pro league (ISL) and a fine rotation player in EuroLeague (not a stud nor a disaster) for a good team, it's just enough for me to sniff the bias/bull

You don't need to like him but you def do not need to lie either


When did I lie? I cant be low on an Euro now because hes young, I agree that is hard to standout on top 5 Euroleague team when you are 19 years old, but that doesnt mean that we must give him a free pass for everything. I dont see anything special with him, would rather have Dzanan Musa.


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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#213 » by Fischella » Sun May 10, 2020 11:01 am

UcanUwill wrote:
Fischella wrote:I am not even that high on Deni mate, but suggesting that he hasn't been a good pro, when he is 18-19 and has been a clear plus in a pro league (ISL) and a fine rotation player in EuroLeague (not a stud nor a disaster) for a good team, it's just enough for me to sniff the bias/bull

You don't need to like him but you def do not need to lie either


When did I lie? I cant be low on an Euro now because hes young, I agree that is hard to standout on top 5 Euroleague team when you are 19 years old, but that doesnt mean that we must give him a free pass for everything. I dont see anything special with him, would rather have Dzanan Musa.

a free pass? dunno I think you should re evaluate your standards, like I said he has been a good player in a pro league, and a fine rotation player in the 2nd best league in the whole world, at 18-19

Not sure how you would want Musa ahead on physical profile alone, Musa is just constantly injured and it's not a coincidence

Production is a very minor part of evaluation and it's actually a plus in Deni's case
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#214 » by Johnny Firpo » Wed May 13, 2020 10:00 pm

Deni is raw, but I think he will get better every year in the NBA, and I don't really see bust potential just based on his size/athleticism/mentality. It's gonna be huge which teams gets him though.
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#215 » by getrichordie » Thu May 14, 2020 5:51 am

Avdija is a top 5 pick for me. No question. Too versatile. Too competitive. Can't see him not being good.
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#216 » by kobyz » Sat May 16, 2020 7:54 pm

Jalen Rose/Josh Richardson Hybrid!
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#217 » by JustMagic » Sat May 16, 2020 10:21 pm

Johnny Firpo wrote:Deni is raw, but I think he will get better every year in the NBA, and I don't really see bust potential just based on his size/athleticism/mentality. It's gonna be huge which teams gets him though.

Whats RAW about him? I'm not saying he'll be a star. I'm not even sure if he'll be a solid NBA player, but raw?

He's a pro basketball player for 2 years now, he played international basketball and won titles. He's not some raw potential.
Not athletic enough? maybe
Has no true position in the nba?
but He's not raw.
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#218 » by Sir-Swish-A-Lot » Sat May 16, 2020 11:19 pm

Jaden McDaniels is better than Deni....that's all. :nod: :nod: :nod:
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#219 » by The-Power » Sun May 17, 2020 9:27 am

Sir-Swish-A-Lot wrote:Jaden McDaniels is better than Deni....that's all. :nod: :nod: :nod:

Don't you feel a bit ridiculous by now, talking about two players and two players only wherever you post? We get it, you're in love with these two players and want us all to know that you believe that they are much better than anyone else thinks they are and you don't care about this draft's other prospects. What does what you're doing add to the discussions on this board, and in threads or discussions about different players in particular? Nothing. It's just annoying at this point, especially when you attach random videos for no reason that take up space and need to load.
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Re: Deni Avdija - 2020 draft 

Post#220 » by Johnny Firpo » Sun May 17, 2020 9:45 am

JustMagic wrote:
Johnny Firpo wrote:Deni is raw, but I think he will get better every year in the NBA, and I don't really see bust potential just based on his size/athleticism/mentality. It's gonna be huge which teams gets him though.

Whats RAW about him? I'm not saying he'll be a star. I'm not even sure if he'll be a solid NBA player, but raw?

He's a pro basketball player for 2 years now, he played international basketball and won titles. He's not some raw potential.
Not athletic enough? maybe
Has no true position in the nba?
but He's not raw.


His shot and understanding of the game is pretty raw. He is often reacting, even as a ball handler. He is a role player in Europe, and has only been a dominant player in youth basketball. He is pretty raw. And I don't think there is a question about his athleticism at all, that's actually one of the best parts of his game/profile. Also, no position in today's NBA? Come on, he is a tweener, but the best kind, who is actually a good athlete,big enough to play either of the forward positions. He is not the Beasley kind of tweener.

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