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way too many misses to count
half the people i watch regularly don't even make it to the pros

UcanUwill wrote:Thabeet recent news reminded me of this. Even tho I am big Euro fanboy, I was not very high on MArc Gasol going into the league. I remember when Gasol went to Memphis, team also acquired 2 other international bigs - Darko Milicic and Hammed Haddadi. I was thinking that that situation is fascinating, I was like, well, they got 3 very similar caliber centers ( ), none of them really starter caliber but I think all 3 are above average bench players, I am very interested in their minute distribution. I remember talking about this with my friend, and we both agreed Darko Milicic is the most competent starter out of all 3
And then when Memphis drafted Thabeet, I was like - well, here gos Marc Gasol starter status for good.

Haseem Thabeet is fascinating case, because i swear every fan I listened or read, told how Thabeet is a sure 100% BUST. Like every casual fan knew Thabeet is a bust and a huge useless reach, yet all Professionals had him going top 3 in the draft. Explain me how this is possible?

Bamba is the same way. I am sky-high on Bamba but some of the biggest causals were like, he's a bust, do not want. They were right to a degree. He does show the talent and potential to be excellent even now but his fundamentals might have been worse than his lack of strength. Atlanta drafted Reddish and he had the same issue as Bamba. Both went to Westtown. Atlanta had to drill in on Cam's fundamentals daily like we're a college program.

It was extremely bad. Cam wasn't raw from a talent or skill perceptive. He was rare and special at that but he was GARBAGE at fundamentals. It was like a damn HS Soph trying to play professional Basketball. **** was worse than when Lou Williams came from South Gwinnett to the Sixers on offense. On defense, I don't know how but Cam was like a damn college senior mentally. I never have seen no **** like this in my life. How can one man be so fundamentally sound on one end, and so fundamentally **** up on the other end?

For me, I missed on Thabeet because I kept comparing him to Deke. Deke has so much more Basketball sense and intelligence. Deke was going to Georgetown to be a doctor. He was just a much smarter basketball player. He also was motivated, while Thabeet wasn't. Thabeet did have potential but I learned a valuable lesson about potential. It has to be earned not given.

If something changes next year I'll deny ever posting this lol but I think it's time to pull the trigger on Josh Jackson and Dennis Smith Jr. I had both as build around guys truly thought they would be in at least tier two convo for their respective positions by now. Big miss on both. I will say I don't think either have been giving ideal situations thus far but there still should have been something shown by this point.

food for thought

Marcus wrote:If something changes next year I'll deny ever posting this lol but I think it's time to pull the trigger on Josh Jackson and Dennis Smith Jr. I had both as build around guys truly thought they would be in at least tier two convo for their respective positions by now. Big miss on both. I will say I don't think either have been giving ideal situations thus far but there still should have been something shown by this point.

I never liked Josh Jackson but you can count me in on Smith Jr. Being a Knicks fan I still am hoping.

This thread peaked my interest. Went back through my posts. I see prospects in a different light now versus when I joined the forum but I had some bad misses.

I loved Mclemore coming out.

"McLemores size and athleticism make him a better prospect than Beal"

2015 was undoubtedly my worst year assessing talent. I was high on Okafor, Mudiay, Cam Payne and Stanley Johnson

"I have 0 qualms about taking Mudiay. I dont know if I could pass on Okafor but Mudiay is a definitely a stud. Franchise point guard"

I just found two of them. Justin Anderson and R.J. Hunter. Compared Hunter to Bazemore and said he could develop into a bigger Bazemore and compared Hunter to Reggie Miller. Both were misses. I did get Booker right but not exactly. I felt he had All Star potential but compared him to Klay.

As soon as Summer league, I realized I missed on Hunter but I was surprised that Anderson never really developed. His shot was broken. For me, three things now mattered that didn't when it comes to shooting at a basic level.

Shooting fluidity - How does your body move during your shoot. Is it consistent? This is the difference between prospect Tyler Herro and Cam Reddish even though both had touch and form. For example, J. Culver had bad fluidity and form and it killed him as a rookie.

Shooting touch - This is how smooth the ball comes out of your hands. You don't want to fastball it or throw it too slow as well. You want to be able to shoot at different speeds with different types of touch which provides versatile shooting. Some guys have a soft touch close to the basket but not away from the basket. Some have limited touch period. Some have a very fluid shot and form but limited touch.

Shooting Form - This is about your shooting form. Is it smooth? Is it herky? Does it translate to the NBA. Some players have elite touch but they lack form and fluidity like LaMelo Ball wherein an empty gym, they can shoot, shoot but in a NBA setting, could severely struggle. While some forms can be unorthodox and work like Shawn Marion and Reggie Miller. It's not all that common. The better the shooting form, the better the chances it goes in.

If you lack one of three, you will need time to transition into the NBA as a shooter. If you lack two of three, you will likely be a terrible shooter no matter what shooting coaches do in the NBA. If you lack all three, you better be 7ft 250 and fast as lightning, explosive as hell, and agile as a mf.

This brings me to another person I missed on, small miss but a miss nonetheless was John Jenkins.

I forget which poster said it, fishchella or Stillwater but they said something that stood out. Being a non-athletic 6'7 SG has a lot more value for a shooter than 6'3-6'5 SG. Sam Merrill was who they were talking about but this was spot on. John Jenkins had all of the metrics that stood out. http://www.tankathon.com/players/john-jenkins

He even had the right wingspan. But someone said it best. Height matters more for shooters than anything else. The taller, the better. John simply was too short. He couldn't get his shot off against NBA level defenses while Duncan Robinson can. Another thing was, John wasn't fast off the ball but he wasn't slow either. Same speed as Robinson and Korver but Korver and Robinson are much taller. They can fight to get into spots see over the top. They provided offensive positional versatility because they have SF height but are SG's. R.J. had similar issues but was an even worse shooter.

When it comes to SG shooters, I want size and strength plus movement or you better have exceptional speed, agility, and stamina like Reggie and Steph. I realize that translates. Shooting is the easiest skill to translate to the NBA but getting your shot off is HARD in the NBA. Makes scouting for shooting so HARD.

HotelVitale wrote:

skiz2 wrote:

Marcus wrote: this was brave sir. Very very brave. btw Bari, Mudiay, and Vaughn i was right there with you on. DSJ as well but i'm still holding hope on him and Josh Jackson.

Might as well own my stupid predictions haha. I want to encourage people to laugh at themselves a little bit and maybe learn.

Most of them aren't "stupid," though, they were good gambles that didn't end up working out--because gambles don't always work out. My least favorite thing about these boards is judging FO's and GM's based on outcome rather than on how they made moves/decisions made at the time. There's definitely some skill to drafting but most teams are totally competent at it, and in any case picking randomly has about as good an outcome. The stuff people usually give teams credit for has nothing to do with any real skill, and there was literally zero way to know, for example, that McCants couldn't stick in the league (or that Felton and May wouldn't amount to much either). Or even better that Steph Curry was definitely better than Brandon Jennings: we could all see that both definitely had skills and abilities that would allow them to be extremely good in the NBA, and we know they'd succeeded at high levels and had good work ethics, mentalities etc. And both had some liabilities as players (notably size for both, plus other things like PG skills for Curry and shooting for BJ) that prevented them from being sure things. What set them apart in the end was just a lot of little mental and physical things that stand between a player being able to do their thing in the college or overseas level and doing it at the NBA level. Those things just aren't knowable because they're small, dynamic/fluid, and incredibly difficult, and there's no way to know who can bang in an NBA environment until it's happening (and been happening for a few years). And of course the ability to develop new skills is a total unknown. There's a conversation to be had about taking credit and blame for bad picks, but I feel like most of your busts were solid choices that just didn't make transition that so many before haven't made.

Probably the best post. While I wasn't exactly high on Bennett, I thought for sure he was a lottery pick. To see how bad he was, was a shock to me.

karkinos wrote:food for thought

Watch on YouTube

How do they justify giving Lamelo an 8 for his jumpshot? I could understand -8, but a solid 8? Come on.

My biggest miss was on Anthony Randolph after watching him play rookie year. We even coined the nickname “Baby Jesus” for him once we got a taste of him on the Warrior board.

Turned out, as talented a player as he was, his brain never allowed him to achieve the high goals he thought he deserved.

I remember blaming it all on Nellie, but turns out old drunk Nellie was spot on......Again!

Mylie10 wrote:My biggest miss was on Anthony Randolph after watching him play rookie year. We even coined the nickname “Baby Jesus” for him once we got a taste of him on the Warrior board.

Turned out, as talented a player as he was, his brain never allowed him to achieve the high goals he thought he deserved.

I remember blaming it all on Nellie, but turns out old drunk Nellie was spot on......Again!

I remember when Nellie said Acie Law best NBA position is SF. I knew before his NBA was coming to an end but it was clear in that moment, it was over

King Ken wrote:

HotelVitale wrote:

skiz2 wrote: Might as well own my stupid predictions haha. I want to encourage people to laugh at themselves a little bit and maybe learn.

Most of them aren't "stupid," though, they were good gambles that didn't end up working out--because gambles don't always work out. My least favorite thing about these boards is judging FO's and GM's based on outcome rather than on how they made moves/decisions made at the time. There's definitely some skill to drafting but most teams are totally competent at it, and in any case picking randomly has about as good an outcome. The stuff people usually give teams credit for has nothing to do with any real skill, and there was literally zero way to know, for example, that McCants couldn't stick in the league (or that Felton and May wouldn't amount to much either). Or even better that Steph Curry was definitely better than Brandon Jennings: we could all see that both definitely had skills and abilities that would allow them to be extremely good in the NBA, and we know they'd succeeded at high levels and had good work ethics, mentalities etc. And both had some liabilities as players (notably size for both, plus other things like PG skills for Curry and shooting for BJ) that prevented them from being sure things. What set them apart in the end was just a lot of little mental and physical things that stand between a player being able to do their thing in the college or overseas level and doing it at the NBA level. Those things just aren't knowable because they're small, dynamic/fluid, and incredibly difficult, and there's no way to know who can bang in an NBA environment until it's happening (and been happening for a few years). And of course the ability to develop new skills is a total unknown. There's a conversation to be had about taking credit and blame for bad picks, but I feel like most of your busts were solid choices that just didn't make transition that so many before haven't made.

Probably the best post. While I wasn't exactly high on Bennett, I thought for sure he was a lottery pick. To see how bad he was, was a shock to me.

Can anyone explain me what precisely success Brandon Jennings had "at high levels"?
He was in rotation for Lottomatica (now Virtus) Roma in Euroleague - i suppose probably mostly because of hype... Lottomatica was average team in Euroleague which finished 7W / 9L and didn't qualified for QF. And Jennings was quite bad for them: 7.6 / 1.6 / 1.6 on just 39 FG% / 27 3p%
And in Italian Seria A were Lottomatica actually competed for high places Jennings was totally horrible: 5.5 / 1.6 / 2.3 on 38 FG% / 21 3p%

arusinov wrote:

King Ken wrote:

HotelVitale wrote:
Most of them aren't "stupid," though, they were good gambles that didn't end up working out--because gambles don't always work out. My least favorite thing about these boards is judging FO's and GM's based on outcome rather than on how they made moves/decisions made at the time. There's definitely some skill to drafting but most teams are totally competent at it, and in any case picking randomly has about as good an outcome. The stuff people usually give teams credit for has nothing to do with any real skill, and there was literally zero way to know, for example, that McCants couldn't stick in the league (or that Felton and May wouldn't amount to much either). Or even better that Steph Curry was definitely better than Brandon Jennings: we could all see that both definitely had skills and abilities that would allow them to be extremely good in the NBA, and we know they'd succeeded at high levels and had good work ethics, mentalities etc. And both had some liabilities as players (notably size for both, plus other things like PG skills for Curry and shooting for BJ) that prevented them from being sure things. What set them apart in the end was just a lot of little mental and physical things that stand between a player being able to do their thing in the college or overseas level and doing it at the NBA level. Those things just aren't knowable because they're small, dynamic/fluid, and incredibly difficult, and there's no way to know who can bang in an NBA environment until it's happening (and been happening for a few years). And of course the ability to develop new skills is a total unknown. There's a conversation to be had about taking credit and blame for bad picks, but I feel like most of your busts were solid choices that just didn't make transition that so many before haven't made.

Probably the best post. While I wasn't exactly high on Bennett, I thought for sure he was a lottery pick. To see how bad he was, was a shock to me.

Can anyone explain me what precisely success Brandon Jennings had "at high levels"?
He was in rotation for Lottomatica (now Virtus) Roma in Euroleague - i suppose probably mostly because of hype... Lottomatica was average team in Euroleague which finished 7W / 9L and didn't qualified for QF. And Jennings was quite bad for them: 7.6 / 1.6 / 1.6 on just 39 FG% / 27 3p%
And in Italian Seria A were Lottomatica actually competed for high places Jennings was totally horrible: 5.5 / 1.6 / 2.3 on 38 FG% / 21 3p%

He had an excellent rookie season in the NBA by 2009 standards.

King Ken wrote:He had an excellent rookie season in the NBA by 2009 standards.

Well... But Milwaukee and Golden State made their draft selections before that season and not after...
By the way it's one of prime examples for those who says : "how can Avdija (for example...) seriously improve his production against NBA athletes after scoring just 4ppg in Europe (even if it was in Euroleague)?"

Jennings improved his stats from unimpressive 7.6 / 1.6 / 1.6 in Euroleague and horrible 5.5 / 1.6 / 2.3 with 21 3p% in Serie A to quite promising 15.5 / 3.4 / 5.7

He still was horribly inefficient scorer which never really changed...

A name we haven't heard in a looooong time. Chase Budinger

Anthony Randolph - I remember watching a random Warriors game his rookie year and he honestly looked like the second coming of KG. I was all in on Randolph and would've put money on him becoming an All-NBA guy. He then got traded to my Knicks, which got me hyped af, only to show that he really wasn't all that. But the flashes in Golden State were mesmerizing. I remember being very high on him before the draft.

Michael Beasley - I'm not alone here but I thought he was a can't miss prospect. A sure-fire perennial All-NBA first or second-teamer.

Danilo Gallinari - Thought he was gonna be a perennial All-Star. Might have become one without the injuries. Not too bad of a miss, but still. Same goes for Eric Gordon. Very similar careers.

Tyreke Evans - I remember hyping him up before the draft (had him 3rd behind Harden and Griffin) and feeling validated after his rookie year. Boy did his career go down the drain after that.

Stephen Curry - I remember feeling unconvinced about Curry. That was when Mike D'Antoni was coaching the Knicks and his philosophy wasn't exactly working out in New York (in retrospect, he got the best out of a trash roster) while Phil Jackson was still running the triangle, Kobe was playing from the post and Garnett was shooting midrange jumpshots. I wasn't sold on the 3-point revolution and I didn't know what to think of Curry as a prospect. Not having a top 10-15 all-time guy in my top 4 qualifies as a miss, although who could've seen that coming.

Terrence Williams - Thought he would have a solid NBA career coming out of Louisville. Could do a little bit of everything. Not in the NBA though, clearly.

Jabari Parker - He looked like a more athletic Paul Pierce. I thought there was absolutely no way he would bust. Just a massive disappointment, although his career was also derailed with injuries.

Chanel Bomber wrote:Anthony Randolph - I remember watching a random Warriors game his rookie year and he honestly looked like the second coming of KG. I was all in on Randolph and would've put money on him becoming an All-NBA guy. He then got traded to my Knicks, which got me hyped af, only to show that he really wasn't all that. But the flashes in Golden State were mesmerizing. I remember being very high on him before the draft.

Michael Beasley - I'm not alone here but I thought he was a can't miss prospect. A sure-fire perennial All-NBA first or second-teamer.

Danilo Gallinari - Thought he was gonna be a perennial All-Star. Might have become one without the injuries. Not too bad of a miss, but still. Same goes for Eric Gordon. Very similar careers.

Tyreke Evans - I remember hyping him up before the draft (had him 3rd behind Harden and Griffin) and feeling validated after his rookie year. Boy did his career go down the drain after that.

Stephen Curry - I remember feeling unconvinced about Curry. That was when Mike D'Antoni was coaching the Knicks and his philosophy wasn't exactly working out in New York (in retrospect, he got the best out of a trash roster) while Phil Jackson was still running the triangle, Kobe was playing from the post and Garnett was shooting midrange jumpshots. I wasn't sold on the 3-point revolution and I didn't know what to think of Curry as a prospect. Not having a top 10-15 all-time guy in my top 4 qualifies as a miss, although who could've seen that coming.

Terrence Williams - Thought he would have a solid NBA career coming out of Louisville. Could do a little bit of everything. Not in the NBA though, clearly.

Jabari Parker - He looked like a more athletic Paul Pierce. I thought there was absolutely no way he would bust. Just a massive disappointment, although his career was also derailed with injuries.

I had the same thoughts on Jabari Parker.

Mylie10 wrote:My biggest miss was on Anthony Randolph after watching him play rookie year. We even coined the nickname “Baby Jesus” for him once we got a taste of him on the Warrior board.

Turned out, as talented a player as he was, his brain never allowed him to achieve the high goals he thought he deserved.

I remember blaming it all on Nellie, but turns out old drunk Nellie was spot on......Again!

I remember those days, I don't really come on here as much anymore but damn, you would think he was Magic Johnson with the hype he got back then.

Mylie10 wrote:My biggest miss was on Anthony Randolph after watching him play rookie year. We even coined the nickname “Baby Jesus” for him once we got a taste of him on the Warrior board.

Turned out, as talented a player as he was, his brain never allowed him to achieve the high goals he thought he deserved.

I remember blaming it all on Nellie, but turns out old drunk Nellie was spot on......Again!

I still think he (and Donald Trump) are coming back

Troy Murphy...dang it...thought he was going to be a tough no-nonsense very good shooter