If Mikal Bridges was coming out this year instead of last, where would he rank?

Post #1 » by **bwgood77** » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:51 am

Top 5?

Post #2 » by **Duke4life831** » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:58 am

His age would hurt him. There really arent that many upperclassmen being talked about in the lotto, just freshmen and sophomores (either than Rui, which I would take Bridges over Rui). I also dont see him going before Hunter. I actually think he ends up around 10 again.

No paticular order

Zion
RJ
Ja
Culver
Hunter
Garland
Hayes
Little
Cam

I can see the argument to go over guys like Cam and Little. But I can also see why a team would take those guys before Bridges because of the presumed upside.

EvanZ · Post #3 » by **EvanZ** » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:59 am

I had him 16 last year. He'd be higher on my list this year. 10-12 I imagine.

clyde21 · Post #4 » by **clyde21** » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:16 am

i had him in the 6-8 range last year, would have him around the same this year. probably 6th at this point after Zion, Barrett, Jontay, Hayes and Garland.

i was a pretty big fan of his.

The-Power · Post #5 » by **The-Power** » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:34 pm

2nd or 3rd for me.

No-Man · Post #6 » by **No-Man** » Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:00 pm

Mikal was 9-10th for me last year I believe, he would probably be around the same this year, maybe 1-2 spots higher

Post #7 » by **bwgood77** » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:19 pm

A little surprised. I thought last draft was much stronger overall, though I had Bridges pretty high, like in 6-8 range. But people do fall for the one and done guys, even with flaws.

Post #8 » by **Duke4life831** » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:33 pm

bwgood77 wrote:A little surprised. I thought last draft was much stronger overall, though I had Bridges pretty high, like in 6-8 range. But people do fall for the one and done guys, even with flaws.

For me, the biggest issue I have with this class and why I consider it weak is I feel like it is missing the tier 2 guys and its depth. I feel like this class is missing the normal 2-5 prospects. But I feel like this class has a lot of tier 3 guys. So I dont like the value of the group of say RJ, Culver, Ja, Garland and so on starting at the 2nd pick. If that group started at around 5, I would really like the top of this class a lot more. And I just think there are enough guys in that tier 3 group, plus Mikal's age, I could see him still being around the 10th pick. 2-4 last year had a ton more value in my opinion.

Patsfan1081 · Post #9 » by **Patsfan1081** » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:41 pm

There's no way he'd be a top five pick. For one you draft for upside at the top of the lottery and two, you can't just assume he'd put together the same exact season. We're also just halfway through the season, how many players have changed their stock based of the tourney alone? Many thought Gafford could go as a late lottery pick last season. I'd prob take Culver and Porter over Bridges if I'm a rebuilding lottery team.

Patsfan1081 · Post #10 » by **Patsfan1081** » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:45 pm

The-Power wrote:2nd or 3rd for me.

You'd take Bridges over Barrett or Ja, when your a team like Atlanta, NY, or Cleveland that's desperate for a franchise player?

eminence · Post #11 » by **eminence** » Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:19 am

First instinct is #2. Tight with Culver.

I'm also extremely unsure what to do with Bol.

He's what everyone seems to think Reddish will magically turn into at some point.

This is last year him coming out this year, not him staying an extra year, which may have dropped him just a bit if he didn't continue to show improvement.

Foliohattu · Post #12 » by **Foliohattu** » Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:36 pm

eminence wrote:First instinct is #2. Tight with Culver.

I'm also extremely unsure what to do with Bol.

He's what everyone seems to think Reddish will magically turn into at some point.

This is last year him coming out this year, not him staying an extra year, which may have dropped him just a bit if he didn't continue to show improvement.

More interestingly, where would you rank Gary Clark this year?

Ball4life32 · Post #13 » by **Ball4life32** » Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:47 pm

Patsfan1081 wrote:
The-Power wrote:2nd or 3rd for me.

You'd take Bridges over Barrett or Ja, when your a team like Atlanta, NY, or Cleveland that's desperate for a franchise player?

Hawks don’t need Ja but yeah definitely rather have Barrett or Culver.

I think Bridges would go 8-10. Same range as last year.

eminence · Post #14 » by **eminence** » Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:00 pm

Foliohattu wrote:
eminence wrote:First instinct is #2. Tight with Culver.

I'm also extremely unsure what to do with Bol.

He's what everyone seems to think Reddish will magically turn into at some point.

This is last year him coming out this year, not him staying an extra year, which may have dropped him just a bit if he didn't continue to show improvement.
More interestingly, where would you rank Gary Clark this year?

Here's a combined lottery big board I whipped up (based off current evaluation procedures, so some slight adjustments on last seasons rankings).

Tier 1
Luka
Zion
JJJ

Tier 2
Young
Bol (if fully healthy)
Culver

Tier 3
WCJ
Mikal
Williams
Ayton
Clark
Shamet

Some other contenders from this season for tier 3, but haven't decided on them yet (RJ/Clarke/THT/Hayes/Hunter/NAW/Porter/maybe some others).

Nazrmohamed · Post #15 » by **Nazrmohamed** » Fri Feb 1, 2019 3:15 am

He was a junior last year, what makes him more desirable this year. If anything I'd be more worried he never gains weight.

And not you but what's up with no respect for Kevin Porter Jr around here. Hes a sleeper.

Stillwater · Post #16 » by **Stillwater** » Fri Feb 1, 2019 4:16 pm

About the same as last season mid-late lottery. even though this 1 and done class has lower floors than last season, orgs are not overpaying older prospects. I don't see any jr. or sr. prospects like Grant Williams or Rui going before 8 in this draft, maybe some soph like Culver or Hunter or esp JA who is younger than a lot of frosh

The-Power · Post #17 » by **The-Power** » Fri Feb 1, 2019 5:08 pm

Patsfan1081 wrote:
The-Power wrote:2nd or 3rd for me.

You'd take Bridges over Barrett or Ja, when your a team like Atlanta, NY, or Cleveland that's desperate for a franchise player?

I answered where I rank him, not necessarily where I would draft him as a GM. Precisely because I do acknowledge the pressure to draft supposedly high-upside guys early in the draft. But that is the beauty of the forums. I would rank him there and above the guys you mentioned based on my expectation of the median outcome. Doesn't mean I wouldn't succumb to external pressure and pick those guys first if I was actually in charge and my job was at stake.

edit: I believe the odds that Barrett or Morant actually become franchise players is slim, albeit more likely than Mikal becoming one. But if they don't get to that level, I like Mikal's chances to be a – potentially considerably – more valuable player. And his floor is obviously much higher as well, in my eyes. If you go for upside, sure, you don't pick him that early – but I do believe that there's a solid chance that Mikal will eventually be a more impactful player than half or more of the guys drafted in the top 10.

Post #18 » by **bwgood77** » Wed Feb 6, 2019 1:49 am

Patsfan1081 wrote:
The-Power wrote:2nd or 3rd for me.

You'd take Bridges over Barrett or Ja, when your a team like Atlanta, NY, or Cleveland that's desperate for a franchise player?

With the flattened odds you could see a team like the Kings or Mavs or one of the others jump to 4 or so though...they could both use a more ready 3D SF. All of the bottom 8 or so have pretty good odds of jumping top 4.

The worst 3 teams have about a 52% chance of picking top 4...but the 7th/8th are around 30% chance. That's not too bad of chance to jump. I think at least one team outside of the bottom 5-6 will jump top 4.