Bol Bol

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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#421 » by clyde21 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:26 pm

two strong indictators of BBIQ...ability to block/alter shots without foul, ability to limit TOs despite higher usage, Bol is better than everyone else in across the board.

combine that with a 50+% from 3, 78+% from the FT line (and these #s go back to EYBL/HS), 37.5 PER (Anthony Davis-like)

tell me more about how this guy is not translatable because he's skinny.
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#422 » by karkinos » Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:33 pm

if there's a team patient enough to develop him slowly, he can turn into a monster.
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#423 » by nolang1 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:34 pm

clyde21 wrote:skills not translatable? pretty laughable. shooting is definitely translatable and I'm not just talking his pull-up game or spot-up shooting 3s, I'm talking about his already sophisticated post game and mid-range repertoire, including a virtually unblockable release point. his length, shot blocking/help defense is definitely translatable. his mobility at his size will be even more translatable given that he'll see even more space in the NBA than he did at Oregon (where he was on pace to have a monster season, btw). his FT shooting translatable. his ability to alter shots without fouling is also translatable.


He doesn't set screens that would get him free for a pick-and-pop, and he's got a slow release and is manageable if run off the line. Teams would be fine with letting him shoot contested mid-rangers in exchange for getting to go at him on pick-and-rolls or just having a much stronger big bully him.

As far as his monster season goes, you'd think it would be somewhat conspicuous that Oregon didn't fall apart (in fact they were better in March than they were at any point with Bol) without his production even though they had a losing record against non-cupcakes at the time he went out.

clyde21 wrote:Bol: 2 fouls per 3.2 blocks

Hayes: 5.2 fouls per 3.4 blocks

WCJ: 3.8 fouls per 2.7 blocks

JJJ: 5.3 fouls per 5.0 blocks


You're comparing numbers from 9 non-conference games to numbers from a whole season, and even that doesn't get into how much of Bol's low foul rate is driven by making zero contact on screens and being out of position on defense or making little effort to recover when beaten. His defensive (and overall) RAPM was considerably worse than it would seem from looking at just box-score numbers.


Bol: +4.16 RAPM

Hayes: +5.93

Carter: +8.14

Jackson: +7.73

Also Bol is 6+ months older than all these players were when drafted, so any argument about what he can be expected to improve upon applies moreso to them.
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#424 » by clyde21 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:38 pm

nolang1 wrote:
clyde21 wrote:skills not translatable? pretty laughable. shooting is definitely translatable and I'm not just talking his pull-up game or spot-up shooting 3s, I'm talking about his already sophisticated post game and mid-range repertoire, including a virtually unblockable release point. his length, shot blocking/help defense is definitely translatable. his mobility at his size will be even more translatable given that he'll see even more space in the NBA than he did at Oregon (where he was on pace to have a monster season, btw). his FT shooting translatable. his ability to alter shots without fouling is also translatable.


He doesn't set screens that would get him free for a pick-and-pop, and he's got a slow release and is manageable if run off the line. Teams would be fine with letting him shoot contested mid-rangers in exchange for getting to go at him on pick-and-rolls or just having a much stronger big bully him.

As far as his monster season goes, you'd think it would be somewhat conspicuous that Oregon didn't fall apart (in fact they were better in March than they were at any point with Bol) without his production even though they had a losing record against non-cupcakes at the time he went out.


Oregon was 6-3 when Bol went out (Dec 12), and essentially went .500 the rest of the way until late February when they got hot and crawled through into the Tourny. not really gonna draw conclusions from this, are we?
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#425 » by nolang1 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:59 pm

clyde21 wrote:
nolang1 wrote:
clyde21 wrote:skills not translatable? pretty laughable. shooting is definitely translatable and I'm not just talking his pull-up game or spot-up shooting 3s, I'm talking about his already sophisticated post game and mid-range repertoire, including a virtually unblockable release point. his length, shot blocking/help defense is definitely translatable. his mobility at his size will be even more translatable given that he'll see even more space in the NBA than he did at Oregon (where he was on pace to have a monster season, btw). his FT shooting translatable. his ability to alter shots without fouling is also translatable.


He doesn't set screens that would get him free for a pick-and-pop, and he's got a slow release and is manageable if run off the line. Teams would be fine with letting him shoot contested mid-rangers in exchange for getting to go at him on pick-and-rolls or just having a much stronger big bully him.

As far as his monster season goes, you'd think it would be somewhat conspicuous that Oregon didn't fall apart (in fact they were better in March than they were at any point with Bol) without his production even though they had a losing record against non-cupcakes at the time he went out.


Oregon was 6-3 when Bol went out (Dec 12), and essentially went .500 the rest of the way until late February when they got hot and crawled through into the Tourny. not really gonna draw conclusions from this, are we?


Yeah, it's enough to know it didn't make a huge difference, which doesn't match with the idea that he's a top 3 player or whatever impact-wise. When teams are missing those kind of players, it's incredibly obvious. Duke was 29-3 with Zion and 3-3 without him. Vanderbilt was 4-0 when Garland went out and 5-23 (0-16 in the SEC) the rest of the way. What do you think Murray State would've looked like without Morant? Pretty safe to say that Bol's individual numbers weren't making a huge difference in terms of team success since it's not a huge leap of faith to say Oregon didn't need him to beat the Portland States and Eastern Washingtons and Green Bays on their schedule.
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#426 » by Fischella » Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:09 pm

clyde21 wrote:doesn't play in a team construct? weird. you want to look at Oregon's DRTG when he was on the court this year vs. when he was off?

86.7 Drtg....right there with JJJ.

Do you know who Oregon played when Bol was healthy?

The 224th, 242nd, 59th, 166th, 161st, 147th offenses in college ball by KenPom

Iowa was the 15th offense and they beat them up, Houston 19th, was a close game (Guard oriented team with no size, and no bigs that can score, or explosive 1on1 perimeter talent)
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#427 » by clyde21 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:12 pm

Fischella wrote:
clyde21 wrote:doesn't play in a team construct? weird. you want to look at Oregon's DRTG when he was on the court this year vs. when he was off?

86.7 Drtg....right there with JJJ.

Do you know who Oregon played when Bol was healthy?

The 224th, 242nd, 59th, 166th, 161st, 147th offenses in college ball by KenPom

Iowa was the 15th offense and they beat them up, Houston 19th, was a close game (Guard oriented team with no size, and no bigs that can score, or explosive 1on1 perimeter talent)


granted, it's a small sample size at the beginning of the year, but who the **** knows, maybe Bol looks even better as the year progresses. we don't know.
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#428 » by Fischella » Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:15 pm

That's wishful thinking, you can't analyze the data and tape with that in mind lol, he looked as he should against a bunch of trash teams, and he got outplayed by Luka Garza, 1st legit big they played

He beat up a bunch of teams with 6-7/6-8 bigs, he is 7-3 with a 7-7 wingspan and can shoot it, what do you expect? he doesn't even need to play close to guys, or make contact to block shots against that type of competition, he didn't play 1 game against a NBA caliber athlete on the perimeter that would attack him on PnR and/or driving inside, and yet he looked really bad often there

Like the closest thing he played to a pro was Tyus Battle man, who actually draw 10FTAs in that game
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#429 » by clyde21 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:22 pm

outplayed by Garza? pass that good **** over this way bro.

Garza with a whopping 12 points. dude averages almost 10 FGA per game took only 5 against Oregon. went 12/5.

Bol dropped 14/7/1 with 4 blocks.
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#430 » by greg4012 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:19 pm

2 things that I believe are overstated with Bol:

Low release point: Watching the tape he does have a low release point on his open catch and shoot 3-point attempts. Granted, the term "low" is relative when speaking of a guy who is 7'2. But, if you look at his entire midrange arsenal, he is using a high release point that is essentially unblockable.

Defense: He has an elite trait--shotblocking. He has concerns in other elements of defense and needs to be coached up and develop. With his elite length and his YOUNG AGE, I think he can develop on the defensive end. Also, it's worth noting that he had the best defensive rating of any player on Oregon who got regular rotation minutes. He also has the best defensive rating of any projected 1st round center in this draft. Granted, small sample size and poor level of competition need to be accounted for. But, I don't see an absolute liability on defense.
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#431 » by Axolotl » Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:59 pm

By the looks of it, Bol does some basketball things really really well, and for his size, exceptionally well. But he doesn't really play basketball all that well. He gets blocks because even when positioned less than ideally, his length is such that he can get his hand on the way. Shoot over his 9'8" standing reach? Good luck with that. He can block shots and seems like he undrestands about rim protection, but other than that, he is a bad defender. In pick and rolls you might as well have a lamp post taking care of the defensive duties.

Offence is where it's at. Nothing like Bol has ever been seen on a basketball court. He can put it on the floor with surprising fluidity, and his shooting is true - if he has enough time for his sluggish release to wind. Would benefit from a higher release, as he now loses some of the benefits of his length. But, even on offence, where he does things well, he doesn't necessarily make basketball sense. It's like he is not playing in the same scheme as the other four.

He is a weak stick figure. Even if you believe he can build up his strength, the are legitimate questions about his willingnesd to do so. Low motor, avoids contact, no fighting spirit. While injured, lost muscle mass and body fat percentage went up. Not a good look on a future pro-athlete's willingness to take care of his body.

Despite all his skills, I don't believe Bol Bol will be an impact player in the next level, mainly because he lacks the desire to be one. Add the injury on top of that, and the highest I'd consider drafting Bol is late lottery.
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#432 » by Fischella » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:16 pm

I ended up pumping him up to early 20s, but not really because of him, just cause the gorup of wings I had ahead are just meh/okay players, so even though I am not a Bol believer, I'd probably take the risk at that point now that I have a clear picture of the class, late teens/early 20s range
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#433 » by Showtime23 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:22 pm

greg4012 wrote:2 things that I believe are overstated with Bol:

Low release point: Watching the tape he does have a low release point on his open catch and shoot 3-point attempts. Granted, the term "low" is relative when speaking of a guy who is 7'2. But, if you look at his entire midrange arsenal, he is using a high release point that is essentially unblockable.

Defense: He has an elite trait--shotblocking. He has concerns in other elements of defense and needs to be coached up and develop. With his elite length and his YOUNG AGE, I think he can develop on the defensive end. Also, it's worth noting that he had the best defensive rating of any player on Oregon who got regular rotation minutes. He also has the best defensive rating of any projected 1st round center in this draft. Granted, small sample size and poor level of competition need to be accounted for. But, I don't see an absolute liability on defense.


Who the fk cares about low release point and shooting slowly?
The guy has an elite jumper and way over 7 feet. Guys below 6'10" dont stand a damn chance. Bol can abuse whenever he wants.
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#434 » by Showtime23 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:29 pm

PockyCandy wrote:Part of my sees Bol Bol and sees a massive bust who has a low motor, and gets killed by everyone on defense because he's either too weak or too slow to defend players.

But then the other part of me sees what Clyde sees, which is a future superstar. He's got some serious offensive skills that you just don't see in 7 footers.


The former thinking will never make a team take a chance on AD, KP, Giannis who had all the skills but frail body types.
In a league that is offense driven, I dont need Bol to play lockdown defense. As long as he posts a 30 PER, 60%+ TS, double doubles, guys already worth his draft pick. The second most important criteria in evaluating these players are wingspan and height. Bol has elite measurements in this category and superstars usually share the same traits.
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#435 » by Stillwater » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:34 pm

Showtime23 wrote:
PockyCandy wrote:Part of my sees Bol Bol and sees a massive bust who has a low motor, and gets killed by everyone on defense because he's either too weak or too slow to defend players.

But then the other part of me sees what Clyde sees, which is a future superstar. He's got some serious offensive skills that you just don't see in 7 footers.


The former thinking will never make a team take a chance on AD, KP, Giannis who had all the skills but frail body types.
In a league that is offense driven, I dont need Bol to play lockdown defense. As long as he posts a 30 PER, 60%+ TS, double doubles, guys already worth his draft pick. The second most important criteria in evaluating these players are wingspan and height. Bol has elite measurements in this category and superstars usually share the same traits.

The problem with his defense isn't low motor or weakness, it's not knowing how to play defense at all having gotten by on his measurements defensively before college. His offense is potentially lethal if he can stay on the court. He will improve his defense some, but I don't expect him to ever add enough muscle to dominate the glass,hold position down low or stay healthy.
I think he is a rotation 3/4 that can easily get you 16 in 12 min off the bench
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#436 » by Showtime23 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:39 pm

RGM would rather max a player like Gobert who is non existent on offense and gets exploited every year .
But they claim using a top 20 pick on an elite offensive player that has unheralded measurements in the NBA level with unlimited range is not worth it. I dont think he is a risk pick considering he has all the skills even more than Zion. Skills, Shooting are the most transferable traits in the NBA.
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#437 » by clyde21 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:05 pm

greg4012 wrote:2 things that I believe are overstated with Bol:

Low release point: Watching the tape he does have a low release point on his open catch and shoot 3-point attempts. Granted, the term "low" is relative when speaking of a guy who is 7'2. But, if you look at his entire midrange arsenal, he is using a high release point that is essentially unblockable.

Defense: He has an elite trait--shotblocking. He has concerns in other elements of defense and needs to be coached up and develop. With his elite length and his YOUNG AGE, I think he can develop on the defensive end. Also, it's worth noting that he had the best defensive rating of any player on Oregon who got regular rotation minutes. He also has the best defensive rating of any projected 1st round center in this draft. Granted, small sample size and poor level of competition need to be accounted for. But, I don't see an absolute liability on defense.


yup....

here is him shooting over 7-2 Trayvon Reed:

Image


the hook shot over Reed:

Image


the screen off Reed and the spot up 3 after recognizing defense collapsing:

Image


so you're talking about a guy in three straight possessions that: hit a turnaround midrange J, hit a hook shot over a 7-2 C, and then hit a 3 off a pick.

not even Porzingis had this offensive arsenal coming into the league.
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#438 » by clyde21 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:27 pm

Showtime23 wrote:RGM would rather max a player like Gobert who is non existent on offense and gets exploited every year .
But they claim using a top 20 pick on an elite offensive player that has unheralded measurements in the NBA level with unlimited range is not worth it. I dont think he is a risk pick considering he has all the skills even more than Zion. Skills, Shooting are the most transferable traits in the NBA.


to be fair, I think the injury/body risks with Bol are real...I'm just not risk averse enough to care really if my medical staff gives me the green light.
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#439 » by bon » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:12 pm

Showtime23 wrote:
PockyCandy wrote:Part of my sees Bol Bol and sees a massive bust who has a low motor, and gets killed by everyone on defense because he's either too weak or too slow to defend players.

But then the other part of me sees what Clyde sees, which is a future superstar. He's got some serious offensive skills that you just don't see in 7 footers.


The former thinking will never make a team take a chance on AD, KP, Giannis who had all the skills but frail body types.
In a league that is offense driven, I dont need Bol to play lockdown defense. As long as he posts a 30 PER, 60%+ TS, double doubles, guys already worth his draft pick. The second most important criteria in evaluating these players are wingspan and height. Bol has elite measurements in this category and superstars usually share the same traits.

Sure they were all frail, but all those guys were really great athletes. Bol has decent end to end speed but that's really it. He's not a great leaper and his inability to change directions quickly is a concern imo
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Re: Bol Bol 

Post#440 » by antonac » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:40 pm

The views in this thread probably accurately represent the fact he is a bit of a gamble

the weight matters (see Jokic who is among the least athletic players in the league but physically makes it work due to having immense strength and bulk) but Bol is not as unathletic as his father, he can move and jump to a degree, this description of him as a tree is from someone who clearly hasn't watched him.

I'd still be taking the gamble on him if he's a late lotto pick. good head on his shoulders and too scary a skillset to ignore.

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