I've done these for a few drafts and I find them helpful. The data comes from hoop-math.com and sports-reference.com. Points/assists/offensive and defensive rebounds/steals/blocks are all per40. This list includes a ton of prospects, but I've left out about a dozen or so senior SGs who might merit inclusion here, like KeVaughn Allen, Phil Booth and Bryce Brown among others. Let me know who you think I ought to add, if anyone. I will not bother including international prospects, since their stats can't be reasonably compared to college stats, and I try not to include guys who played too few games due to injury or suspicions, but I was pretty complete this time. Guys who only played shortened seasons who I included are Kevin Porter Jr, Lindell Wigginton and Lagerald Vick.
Also be warned, I am not a concise writer, so these get very long. I have put a little analysis of each section in spoilers to make the thing more compact this time.
Vitals
Spoiler:
Age and class matter. I tend to underrate age as a factor myself, not giving young guys enough slack for having time to develop, and giving older guys too much credit. I've tried to correct my bias this time around. Dort and Norvell are both old for their class, while THT, Reaves and Davis are young for theirs. Konchar are the Martin twins are just old period.
Level of competition also matters. It's one thing to play at a G5 school like Houston, but another thing all together to play at a low-major like Purdue Fort Wayne. Gonzaga had a tough non-conference schedule but the WCC is still a weak conference without them, and the MVC was awful this year so Nevada played soft competition.
I've sorted these guys by their height barefoot just to show you how much cheating goes on with player's listed height in shoes. Dort is just as short as Massinburg, but he's listed as being a half-inch taller in shoes, so people act as though he isn't small. The most egregious case here is Jordan Poole being listed as a full inch taller than Kerwin Roach in shoes despite both being the same height.
Wingspan matters a great deal, especially on defense, but it's not just being 'long', it's also about being long relative to how tall you are. Oni and Langford have very good length, but can't compare to THT who is freakishly long. He’s also the heaviest guy, maybe too heavy.
Small wingspans are bad news, but it’s unusual to have a wingspan significantly smaller than your height in shoes, as is the case with Tyler Herro. Kyle Guy is also short here – not only is he extremely thin and short, he doesn’t even have decent length.
Overall Offense
Spoiler:
Here we have a summary of the offensive output of these prospects. Net ORtg is just an attempt to give you some approximation of a player’s overall offensive impact. It’s less helpful if the player missed many games, and should not be take as definitive regardless, but it does help organize these prospects.
Good shot% is just the % of shots the player took that are at the rim or from 3 point range. It’s a neutral measure – if a guy has a low GS%, you could just view that as saying the player has a lot of room for improvement. Or, if a guy has a high GS%, you could say that he’s clearly a very smart player and is NBA ready. It really just provides you with some context for a player’s scoring efficiency – if he’s inefficient but has a high GS%, that’s trouble, but if he’s inefficient with a low GS% then his scoring efficiency can more easily be fixed. Examples of the former are Josh Reaves and Luguentz Dort. Examples of the latter are Tyus Battle, Romeo Langford and Jarrett Culver. Finally, if you are an efficient scorer in spite of a low GS%, then you might have lots of a potential as a scorer. The two examples here are Tyler Herro and Jaylen Nowell.
The top scorers tend to be upperclassmen, and those that aren’t tend to be inefficient, like Culver. As usual, these numbers must be taken in context – how big was the offensive burden on the guy? How did he get his buckets? Was he efficient? We’ll look at how later – but we can see who scored efficiently or not. The 3 least efficient scorers are all really concerning – THT, Dort and Reaves all have serious offensive woes any interested team will have to contend with. Quinndary Weatherspoon stand out as the second most efficient scorer, because he did so in a full season (unlike Vick) and in a major conference (unlike Konchar or Massinburg) and as his team’s first option (unlike Guy). He is potentially underrated as a scoring guard prospect.
We expect efficiency to go down as usage goes up, and we also expect none of these guys to be first options in the NBA, so we should account for that when evaluating prospect’s efficiency. Culver, Roach and Dort were all saddled with a heavy load on offense, heavier than they could carry well. They shouldn’t be judged too harshly. Low usage guys ought to be very efficient though, and this reflects poorly on Josh Reaves.
Passing is important to evaluate too, since even if these guys aren’t all point guards, passing well shows BBIQ and you can never have too much playmaking in the NBA. The top 5 passers (Konchar, Culver, Cody Martin, Roach and NAW) all served essentially as their teams’ point guards, and some did a better job of it than others – NAW struggled a bit with turnovers, while Culver did not. Among the guys who passed very little, some were essentially just spot-up shooters, but those who also turned the ball (Porter, Vick) over have serious explaining to do – how do you manage to turn the ball over often if you aren’t putting the ball on the floor or playmaking much? Lanford stands out as a guy who passed very little despite being his team’s first option on offense, which is troubling.
Offensive rebounding isn’t important for SGs, but it can help indicate to us if a player is athletic. Massinburg and Konchar both got a boost here by playing lower levels of competition, but this is a good sign for Josh Reaves and Jarrett Culver. Low levels aren’t that concerning though. Poole did the least of it, but that had something to do with his team’s philosophy.
Overall we expect to see seniors, especially at small schools, have huge impact on offense, so don’t be too impressed by the top 3 guys. Herro, Battle and Nowell are not guys I’d expect to place so well, so they deserve additional attention. Langford also had good impact in spite of passing little and being inefficient scoring the ball. On the other hand, these numbers are bad news for Reaves, Davis, and Oni, who as seniors ought to be major positives by now. The younger players can still rely on potential. Still, THT’s negative number is shockingly low.
Penetration
Spoiler:
Penetration is a vital skill for guards who want to be more than spot-up shooters, but even spot-up shooters need to show that they have enough athleticism and handle to at least attack aggressive close-outs. To evaluate this, I have the % of shots they took at the rim, how well they finished, and their free-throw rate, which I’ve adjusted to ignore 3s. I’ve also included the % of their makes which were assisted, since we’re interested in a guy’s ability to create his own shots at the rim primarily. For SGs, I’m hoping that under 40% of their makes are assisted. Bellow 30% and we’re looking at guys who were playing like primary options or lead ball handlers (Massinburg, Nowell, Battle, Culver, Langford, THT, NAW), and below 20% were looking at essentially real PGs (Roach).
Nearly every guy has some hole here. Dort was terrible at converting his looks and was assisted on far too many of his makes. Martin (Cody not Caleb) too was getting set up for a lot of his looks instead of creating his own, and he drew little contact. Konchar did great, except he got to feast on Summit League rim protectors, so you’d hope that he’d dominate. Weatherspoon is the first guy we reach who well or at least okay in all aspects of attacking the rim. The other guys who get passing grades without any caveats are Culver, NAW, Langford, Johnson and Roach. Massinburg did well, but again, against the MAC.
The rest of the prospects have issues, but few are without any merits. THT and Nowell did well by all measures except FTA/2PA for instance. Being unable to draw contact is bad, but not crippling, and the key is that they can still put pressure on the defense by attacking the basket. Much more concerning are guys who cannot finish, as that’s just a matter of having touch or not – if you can’t convert the easiest looks then you will almost always struggle to score. You want guys to be making more than 60% of their attempts at the rim. Being a little below that it a negative but not crippling (although Reaves and Oni both have poor track records), but being near 50% is horrific and indicates a real problem for Dort and Brooks.
Drawing free throws is a good way to save your scoring efficiency. Caleb Martin and Lindell Wigginton drove so rarely that I can’t give them credit for drawing so much contact, but Langford, Massinburg and Dort all deserve credit for having a knack and getting to the line.
Davis, Norvell, (Caleb) Martin, Wigginton, Herro, Vick, Guy and Brooks should all be looked at primarily as spot-up shooters on offense. Battle is in this mix, but I think his issue is one of coaching and shot-selection, rather than an inability to drive to the hoop.
Shooting
Spoiler:
Guys who attack the basket a lot often do so because their jump shot sucks. But shooting is vitally important, now more than ever. Sample size is low given the low number of games, so we have to look at FT% too, as well as career numbers. Finally, it’s worth seeing who relies on their long ball to score (% of shots that are 3s) and if they’re just spot-up shooters or are capable of hitting off the dribble (%3s assisted).
Most of these guys can at least shoot a little. Langford had the worst 3P%, but he excused this by claiming he was limited by an injury. If that is legit, then every guy here has at least some hope of becoming a competent shooter in the NBA. Roach might have the worst odds because unlike the guys who shot worse from distance than him, he’s a senior and still a poor free throw shooter.
Some guys absolutely can shoot though. The no-doubters are Guy, Herro, Massinburg, Norvell, Poole, Vick and Weatherspoon. Brooks, Johnson, Konchar, NAW, Nowell, Oni, and Wigginton all probably can shoot fine but have some question, and might not do as well in the NBA with a longer line and better defenses. Konchar is a real oddball – he’s a senior who’s always shot well from 3 on high volume, but for some reason has never been terrible good at hitting free throws. I also wonder about Nowell, why were 3s such a small % of his shot attempts given his %s?
The rest have bigger questions and more reason to doubt. Davis didn’t shoot a decent % from 3 until his senior year, how real is his improvement? Reaves clearly is only any good spotting up but you’d feel better about him if his career FT% was better. THT, Dort and Culver are all clearly guys who need to work on their shots, and none of them are particularly good from the line – will any of them become okay shooters in the NBA? Battle is again a guy I think is better than his %s suggest, as he took a ton of bad shots off the dribble, and with better shot selection I think could be decent.
Passing
Spoiler:
These numbers are all self-explanatory. I included AST%/USG% just to give an impression of who’s a shoot-first or shoot-only guy vs. who’s a passer.
Near the top we have a bunch of PGs or guys who were pressed into service as their team’s PG (Reaves and NAW). The most spectacular numbers are reserved for Cody Martin and John Konchar, who should probably get consideration as primary ball handlers. Reaves and NAW clearly were handed more passing responsibilities than they could handle, but NAW at least has the ability to be a secondary ball handler; Reaves does not. Culver has the second highest AST% but was also very high-usage, and will probably be asked to score less in the NBA. Roach is PG-ish but not quite.
Norvell did very well passing the ball for a guy who puts up over 60% of his shots from beyond the ark. Davis also passes the ball more often than I expected him to. Massinburg is small for a SG, so it’s encouraging that he avoided turning the ball over, as his best hope may be to move down to PG – he’s clearly a scoring guard, but if he can at least not turn it over he might be able to handle a few more responsibilities as a passer. Tyus Battle is in a similar boat as Massinburg. Syracuse basically didn’t run a real offense, so I think he has room to really improve his AST% given his ability to avoid turning it over.
Weatherspoon disappoints, as this is the only part of his offensive game that’s an issue by the numbers. He just turns the ball over too often. Jaylen Nowell is another guy who needs to work on his turnovers, but he’s much younger than Weatherspoon so it’s a bit less concerning.
Among the guys who don’t pass much, Brooks really stands out as “just a shooter”. It’s quite hard to have an assist rate as low as he did as a guard. He didn’t turn the ball over, which is great, but that’s what you expect from a guy who does nothing but spot up, same for Caleb Martin and Kyle Guy. That Lagrald Vick managed to turn the ball over so often is pretty bad.
Langford and Dort are a pair of freshmen who dominated the ball and lead their teams in scoring. Both clearly were black holes and need to learn to share the ball around more.
Defense
Spoiler:
Everyone is looking for 3 and D guys to fill out their wing rotation, and this class offers a couple of potential options. But even if these guys aren’t great defenders, it’s still important to checking steal rates, because they do a good job of indicating NBA potential, either due to length and athleticism, or intelligence or some combination of both. Blocks and rebounds also help indicate athleticism, and how ‘big’ a guy plays – so better numbers here suggest a guy would have less trouble guarding up a position.
Josh Reaves rates out as an absolute, certified stud on defense. He’s got an elite steal rate that’s honestly rare (only Marcus Smart did better in recent history among NBA prospects AFAIK), along with his block rate. Eye test and accolades all back this up, and he did it in one of the best conferences in basketball. He’s also been an elite defender from day one, so this isn’t a result of his age advantage. Konchar rates out well too, but again, elite numbers are what you expect from an NBA prospect playing his 4th season in the Summit league. These are more impressive than what George Hill put up though, and he’s the last guy to have a real NBA career coming from that league. Terence Davis’ numbers are very good, but are a half-step down from elite. THT and Oni both did well but strike me more as huge, long guys rather than genuinely elite defenders, and Oni benefitted from facing weaker competition. Culver’s numbers aren’t elite but they certainly don’t say anything bad about him. NAW’s are surprising given his reputation, but I think his steal rate was a bit inflated as IIRC Virginia Tech played a lot of zone defense this season. Vick’s steals are almost certainly a product of him playing a shortened season given that he didn’t get many steals in any of his previous seasons.
Dort played much smaller than his measurements, but at least had a good steal rate, which is encouraging. Weatherspoon is in a similar boat.
Nowell and Battle both played in the same Syracuse zone that is notorious for inflating steal rates substantially and still had mediocre and poor steal rates, bad signs. Battle also played much smaller than his listed height, leading me to imagine that he might be shorter than he’s purported to be, and perhaps has a small wingspan. Speaking of which, Herro’s and Guy’s short wingspans show up on defense with awful steal and block rates. Wigginton, Johnson and Poole don’t have quite the same excuse, which bodes poorly. Brooks’ sucks as well, but he is an oddly good defensive rebounder. I don’t think this matters too much but it isn’t nothing.
Overall
Spoiler:
I’ve sorted this net rating summary by class first, since players should be evaluated against their peers. I’ll remind you not to take the numbers of Wigginton, Porter Jr and Kick too seriously because they played shortened seasons.
Individual player assessments Athletes Young Jarrett Culver – There is a lot to like with him, but I can’t help shake the idea that he’s Evan Turner. Big wing, good playmaker, solid defender, poor shooter. Overall efficiency was poor, took too many shots, but was very effective driving to the basket and dishing the ball around. He needs to learn to hit his 3s and cut out the long 2s but there’s clearly a useful player here and potentially a very good one pending his jump shot.
Romeo Langford – I came away feeling much better about him. While his steal rate and A/TO are bad, he was a black hole and his 3P% sucked, his overall impact on offense was pretty solid for a freshman. His ability to get to the cup, draw contact and convert is solid, especially since everyone quickly figured out that he couldn’t shoot jumpers and wouldn’t pass the ball. If his injury excuse is legit and he actually is a decent jump shooter, then he has a good all-around scoring game and could be a quality volume scorer in the NBA.
Luguentz Dort – He has a lot of serious flaws to worry about. He’s a bit short, he showed terrible touch around the basket in spite of being very strong (reminds me of Stanley Johnson), his 3P% was bad, he dominated the ball way too much given how low his scoring efficiency was, he didn’t pass the ball, and he didn’t look great on defense. He’s also old for a freshman. He at least has a nice frame, got steals and drew fouls, but for that last bit you should have a good FTA/2PA if basically all of your 2s are at the basket. I don’t really see much appeal.
Kevin Porter Jr. – I won’t hold his stats against him too much given that he didn’t play many games, but nothing in them blew me away. I’ll leave it to people who watched him more to say if he’s any good.
Talen Horton-Tucker – Athlete isn’t really the right term for him, but what is he? He certainly ain’t a shooter. His TS% was absolutely horrific. Given that he shot 70% at the rim, that tells you how bad he shot everywhere else. He also didn’t make up for this by passing the ball much, which leaves him with really little to do on offense at his height. He isn’t a small-ball center at 6’2.5” tall, even with his impressive length. Everyone seems to be hoping that he turns into PJ Tucker or something like that, which relies on him becoming a shooter in spite of having no track record. At least he’s really young, but that net ORtg is as bad as I can remember.
Old Tyus Battle – Battle’s numbers are mostly poor, but I really do think he has hidden potential. Syracuse basically didn’t run an offense this season, it was essentially just a matter of rolling the ball out and asking Battle or someone else to make stuff happen. In those conditions it’s no surprise that his shot distribution was awful and therefore so was his TS%. But he did a fine job attacking the basket, his FT% is pretty good and his 3P% was depressed by taking so many shots off the dribble. In a normal, structured offense, a lot of his bad shots go away and I think his efficiency improves significantly. Same goes for his passing – I think he has better potential as a passer than his AST% suggests. However, the low number of steals in that crazy zone they play is really off-putting. It suggests that he isn’t just bad on defense, but a special sort of bad.
Miye Oni – A big, high-usage wing is typically an interesting prospect, but his production does not look that impressive to me considering the context of being an upperclassman facing Ivy League competition. He didn’t finish that well considering his size and the quality of rim protection he typically faced. He looks like a capable playmaker but not a special one. The blocks are nice, but you really want to see a high steal rate in a wing, and he didn’t get a ton of steals. However, the shooting is good. Size + shooting means he’s still intriguing.
John Konchar – His stats are spectacular across the board except for his free-throw shooting, but the Summit League has basically put one guy into the NBA recently. That guy was George Hill. Now, Konchar’s numbers are all better than Hills, so we can’t dismiss the possibility that he’s got what it takes. His results as a passer leave open the possibility that he could be a big point guard in the NBA too, which everyone loves.
Cody Martin – Clearly he has PG skills and plus size for the position, but he does very little scoring on his own really. You would hope that he’d have more scoring ability at his age. His numbers outside of his passing stats don’t really wow you, but there remains a decent appeal to a large PG with good athleticism.
Quinndary Weatherspoon – He might have the best scoring arsenal of any SG in this class, inside and out. The steal rate is nice but the defense might not be. However, the turnover issues hurt, especially as a senior. At the very least he knows how to shoot and can certainly attack the basket. I think he’s mildly underrated.
Kerwin Roach – He’s got some nice combo-guard skills, but he’s really skinny and his shooting isn’t consistent, especially at the line. As with all of the rest of the seniors, you hope the guy has some sort of elite skill and to hang his hat on, and Roach is more swiss army knife who’s okay at a bunch of stuff. At least he appears to be a better defender than most of these upperclassmen guards.
Shooters Young Tyler Herro – I think that he’s being underrated as a prospect. His strengths and weaknesses are pretty straight forward – he’s a dangerous shooter with tons of confidence but super-short arms. Calipari has had a bunch of these “designated shooter” types come through, who often look pretty similar – Malik Monk, Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, James Young, Doron Lamb. They mostly just shoot 3s in college, hiding their potential to do anything else on offense, and don’t impress you with many steals or blocks. Some of them turn into really good players and others disappear without a trace. I think that Herro is closer to being another Booker, rather than another Monk or Young. The high level of impact as a freshman is impressive. He’s got tons of room to grow with his shot distribution. And defensively, Booker had a terrible wingspan too, and Herro did a bit better than him in terms of steals, blocks, rebounds and Net DRtg (he also passed more than Booker). No guarantees, but I think he might be getting overlooked.
Keldon Johnson – For a 3&D prospect he’s really lacking. Horrendous steal and block rates. Decent 3P% but almost no unassisted makes, low FT% and 3s really made up a small % of his shot attempts. He didn’t pass much at all and his A/TO is exactly 1, which is low. His penetration numbers are okay across the board, but nothing in his profile looks exciting. He’s young, and the same things I said about Kentucky shooters hold for him too. That makes him a mystery box that I’m lower on.
Jaylen Nowell – Offensive, it comes down to two issues. First is that he takes way, way, way too many long twos. Nearly half of his shots are in this dead zone. Second, he turns the ball over too much. Those things are probably related – he probably has a weak handle and is therefore forced to pull up short of the basket. But I don’t actually know that for certain, having not watched a ton of PAC12 basketball. If he can turn more of those long twos into layups and 3s though, watch out. He already had a 59TS% taking all of these awful shots. 70% at the rim is great, and he’ll draw more contact if he gets to the rim more often, so I’m not worried about the FT rate. And he’s shown a consistent ability to hit 3s. Like Battle, if he does fix his shot distribution, you’ll still need to worry about his defense, as his low steal rate in that zone is really concerning, and unlike Battle he’s not very tall. Still, there’s potential here.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker – Virginia Tech’s PG missed a good portion of the season, and NAW was forced to step in as PG, which he clearly isn’t suited for, hurting his net ORtg. However, he did clearly demonstrate that he’s a capable secondary playmaker. He’s capable though not great at getting to the rim and finishing, and he’s been a consistent 3 point shooter over two seasons, though he mainly spots up. Defensively he seems to have done okay, although I don’t take that 2 steals per40 that seriously, since IIRC he played in a lot of zone. I understand the concerns about his athleticism, but his statistical profile doesn’t throw up many red flags, so I think he’s getting mildly underrated.
Jordan Poole – He’s shown clear ability to hit 3s from NBA range. Unfortunately, that is mostly it with him. Too often when iso’d he’d settle for a jumper instead of driving, and consequently he didn’t do much passing either. He isn’t explosive but he isn’t slow, and he does have a decent handle, so it’s more a matter of choice instead of ability. Also, his defense was poor, clearly the worst defender on a very well coached defensive team. It pains me to trash him like this. However, he’s still young, especially for a sophomore and there’s no question he can shoot 3s, so he’s not all bad.
Zach Norvell – His offensive numbers across the board are okay to good, but his net ORtg was bad. I think that this is because he was a product of an offensively talented Gonzaga team beating up on the WCC, rather than a driving force behind Gonzaga’s offense. He’s old for a sophomore too. His Net DRtg was also bad despite a nice steal rate. Still, the 3 point shot was very good, and he produced a ton of assists despite taking over 60% of his shots from 3. I don’t believe in him but I can see why someone would like him. Really, outside of the poor Net ORtg/DRtg and age, his profile looks good.
Lindell Wigginton – I don’t really know why he came out early. He didn’t play a full season, although his stats are mostly in line with his first year. He’s essentially ‘just a shooter’. About half of his shots were 3s and most of his makes were assisted. He didn’t get to the rim much on his own at all, though he was effective when he got there. He didn’t do a ton of passing and his defensive numbers stink. If he were 6’5” in shoes I could say ‘eh, whatever’, but he’s listed at 6’2”. Also, his FT% is bad. I don’t know what’s up here.
Old Armoni Brooks – He takes being “just a shooter” to an extreme. 9% of his shots are at the rim vs. 73% from 3, and his assist rate is just 5.5. He quite literally doesn’t do anything but shoot 3s. That might be a bit concerning given his low FT%, but that could just be a result of him taking fewer FTs (46 this year, 83 overall) than 3s (310 this years, 577 for his career). His defensive numbers also suck outside of really good defensive rebounding, but I imagine that he’s just cleaning up while other guys box out. In any event, I’m worried about my guards staying in front of guys, not rebounding. He’s listed at just 6’3” and those steal and block rates suggest short arms. He is young for a junior, but he brings nothing to the table except spot-up shooting.
Kyle Guy – He’s not as much of a one-dimensional guy as Brooks is, but that’s not saying much. 15% of his shots were at the rim vs. 64% from 3, etc. Defensively, he rates out substantially worse than Brooks does, which isn’t surprising given that he’s too short to be a SG in the NBA, has short arms and is extremely light weight. Hard to see him having a chance.
CJ Massinburg – The main issue with him is his size. He’s pretty small for a shooting guard, not too small but borderline. None of his stats disqualify him, but you want to see really special stuff from a senior playing in a weak conference. At the very least, he’s a proven sharp-shooter who can do it off the bounce, and his size is not really any worse than Dort’s.
Caleb Martin – He is another guy who is essentially “just a shooter”. 64% of his shots were from 3. Unfortunately, he only shot 33.8% from 3, and has never had an impressive FT%. He has an okay track record, 35.9% from 3 for his career, but he’s not really a knock-down shooter. Outside of his shooting he’s almost clear across the board, but if he really had much of a knack for driving to the basket or passing, you’d think that we’d have seen him do more of those things during his 4 year college career, and we haven’t. Since he’s really old, being just sort of okay at a bunch of things isn’t really good enough.
Josh Reaves – Simply put, he is offensively challenged but defensively the best guy available. He’s shown better on offense playing as a role-player his previous season with Tony Carr setting him up, but he clearly cannot create for himself or others much, and should be restricted to spotting up, which he can do. He’s a senior and his measurements don’t blow you away, but there isn’t a more proven perimeter defender in this draft class.
Terence Davis – A sort of compromise on Reaves is Davis. He has essentially the same body dimensions, not quite as many steals and blocks but more rebounds, and is friskier on offense. Unlike Reaves he only shot the 3 well his senior year, which makes him more of a risk as a 3&D guy, but he’s shown more ability to create his own shot and handle. He isn’t great on offense by any means, but he’s handled a much larger scoring load on offense.
Lagerald Vick – His stats suffer from a shortened season, but the takeaway is straightforward. He is a knockdown shooter, but not much else as a senior. The steal rate is an illusion, as his previous three seasons it was quite low. He might be the best shooter in this class though, so if you want a proven shooter, he’s the guy.
These are always interesting, thank you for bothering compiling them, I don't have the time to get back at you just yet (I will) but wanted to leave a message, I think calling them all SGs or grouping them together it's a bit disingenous but that's another convo (Herro has more in common with Coby White than he does with Keldon Johnson)
For what's worth, my rankings on the guys you went through atm (would like your insight or opinion);
Jarrett Culver
Tyler Herro Talen Horton-Tucker Romeo Langford
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Jordan Poole Kevin Porter Jr. Cody Martin John Konchar Zach Norvell Lu Dort Terence Davis Keldon Johnson Miye Oni Tyus Battle Quinndary Weatherspoon Jaylen Nowell Josh Reaves Kerwin Roach Caleb Martin LaGerald Vick CJ Massinburg Kyle Guy Armoni Brooks Lindell Wigginton
I would not draft anybody after Oni/Battle probably
Lu Dort is going to get drafted to be a PG. sure chances are they fall back and play him as a SG but his draft time value is as a PG
Louis the King I guess is considered a SF but I think of him as a long term high ceiling Sg.
We already know Herro is the type that always goes 5-10 picks before he should. Owners step in demanding guys like this.
I’m a PAC guy so I always think national perception of pac guys is odd. Thybulle and Jaylen Nowell being looked at how they are and Kevin porter jr the way he is seems odd
Looking at this SG class, I just haven't fallen in love with any of them except for a couple. Lots of solid prospects, but not a lot of them have complete all-around games. I think NAW is the most complete which is why I'm high on him most. He brings value to both ends of the floor on all facets of the game. He's the most complete SG prospect of this draft with very little holes in his game compared to everyone else.
With that being said, I really like Herro's shooting ability. I'm not sure how much he can contribute day 1 without being too overwhelmed on defense, but I think his ball handling and scoring potential is legit. Not Devin Booker level, but possibly a plus shot creator depending on how far his handles take him.
With KPJ, I'm getting a lot of Kelly Oubre Jr vibes from him. KPJ is probably one of the better on-ball creators in this draft, but how effective can he be? Can he contribute elsewhere on the floor? He only played 21 games and his 3pt shooting and FT shooting shows a big discrepancy in shooting ability. Shot mechanics need to be worked on, but when you compare it to the other top flight prospects of Langford and Cullver, the mechanics don't look too bad. But that's being subjective. He also reminds me a lot of Malachi Richardson from Syracuse.. I'm just not sure where I stand with him. He might have the highest ceiling of the SGs here because of his athletic profile and on-ball creation, but you're just gambling on potential rather than substance if you're taking him very high.
Looks like Terence Davis is rising up draft boards. I've watched him a couple times, but he never really stood out to me. Not sure where teams see him, but he does have some 3&D potential. Maybe an Allen Crabbe, backup SG?
Lu Dort is going to get drafted to be a PG. sure chances are they fall back and play him as a SG but his draft time value is as a PG
Louis the King I guess is considered a SF but I think of him as a long term high ceiling Sg.
We already know Herro is the type that always goes 5-10 picks before he should. Owners step in demanding guys like this.
I’m a PAC guy so I always think national perception of pac guys is odd. Thybulle and Jaylen Nowell being looked at how they are and Kevin porter jr the way he is seems odd
CJ Massinburg might end up becoming an Ian Clark type player in the NBA. If he had better handles, he could be a McCollum type, but that is asking too much I imagine.
How do a pair of 22 year olds (Davis and Reaeves) get green ratings on age? They are both seniors who have the full 4 years in, so they have already had as much development time as practical (ie. less untapped potential)... I don't get it.
VanWest82 wrote:Thybulle should be on this list. He might be the best defensive player in the draft. I would take him over the majority of guys on that list.
you won't see Thybulle at the 2 guard in the nba even if those numbers were in a strong conference and esp even if they were not a product of a 2-3 zone. He's overrated as a prospect imo
SUNDOWN BRINGS A WELCOME CHANGE TO EVERYTHING THAT'S HIDING
Fischella wrote:These are always interesting, thank you for bothering compiling them, I don't have the time to get back at you just yet (I will) but wanted to leave a message, I think calling them all SGs or grouping them together it's a bit disingenous but that's another convo (Herro has more in common with Coby White than he does with Keldon Johnson)
For what's worth, my rankings on the guys you went through atm (would like your insight or opinion);
Jarrett Culver
Tyler Herro Talen Horton-Tucker Romeo Langford
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Jordan Poole Kevin Porter Jr. Cody Martin John Konchar Zach Norvell Lu Dort Terence Davis Keldon Johnson Miye Oni Tyus Battle Quinndary Weatherspoon Jaylen Nowell Josh Reaves Kerwin Roach Caleb Martin LaGerald Vick CJ Massinburg Kyle Guy Armoni Brooks Lindell Wigginton
I would not draft anybody after Oni/Battle probably
I think that you list is fairly reasonable. Most of the movement I'd do would be to lower end guys, the 2nd rounders. NAW is the last clear first round guy. When you get down into second round and undrafted territory I think the order becomes fairly arbitrary. My personal cutoff for guys I like is essentially at Reaves, but I don't know if I consider him draft worthy, as in being at least #60 on my big board. Without having gone through everyone else or international guys, I'm just guessing about position.
Since this is really my first look-through I'm still thinking about these guys a lot. Have I been to harsh on Norvell? His only bad numbers are his age and Net ORtg/DRtg, and those latter two are kind of BS numbers. I haven't calibrated for age well either. Guys like Johnson or Dort kind of suck right now, so I'm inclined to say don't bother drafting them, but that's extreme. It's also tough with placing guys like Konchar or Poole.
You're higher on Cody Martin I think the consensus is. I can definitely see the appeal of a bigger PG like him, but there is certainly plenty of stuff to worry about.
The only first round guy I'm really unsure about is THT - I know he's young and has this freakish body, but I don't know what I even want him to develop into. What sort of roll do you have for a "SG" who can't shoot, isn't a particularly special passer and is heavier than most PFs? It's not like I hate him, I just don't know what to do with him. It's much easier to imagine what most of the rest of these guys look like if they pan out.
VanWest82 wrote:Thybulle should be on this list. He might be the best defensive player in the draft. I would take him over the majority of guys on that list.
I included him with the SFs. It's fairly arbitrary, but my list of guys I've put in is getting pretty long, so I didn't want to slot a guy in for two positions.
pad300 wrote:How do a pair of 22 year olds (Davis and Reaeves) get green ratings on age? They are both seniors who have the full 4 years in, so they have already had as much development time as practical (ie. less untapped potential)... I don't get it.
They were just the two youngest seniors, that's why they got marked in green. Obviously they aren't 'young', they're just relatively young. I suppose I should have marked them out with light green since they aren't crazy young for a senior.
Here's a full list of senior SGs (lot of combo guards too) who I've considered adding to this chart/analysis. I don't want to bother with all of them, since they'd all be lucky to get drafted, but if there's any who are particularly interesting, I'd be willing to compile their numbers: Justin James, Barry Brown, Christian James, Shizz Alston, Bryce Brown, James Palmer, Jeremiah Martin, Max Strus, Phil Booth, Jon Elmore, Torin Dorn, KeVaughn Allen and Marquise Reed.
Let me know who, if any, of these guys are worth the effort.
pad300 wrote:How do a pair of 22 year olds (Davis and Reaeves) get green ratings on age? They are both seniors who have the full 4 years in, so they have already had as much development time as practical (ie. less untapped potential)... I don't get it.
The colors are showing players who are young/old for their class. Otherwise you can just look at freshman/sophomore/junior/senior to get an idea.
Fischella wrote:These are always interesting, thank you for bothering compiling them, I don't have the time to get back at you just yet (I will) but wanted to leave a message, I think calling them all SGs or grouping them together it's a bit disingenous but that's another convo (Herro has more in common with Coby White than he does with Keldon Johnson)
For what's worth, my rankings on the guys you went through atm (would like your insight or opinion);
Jarrett Culver
Tyler Herro Talen Horton-Tucker Romeo Langford
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Jordan Poole Kevin Porter Jr. Cody Martin John Konchar Zach Norvell Lu Dort Terence Davis Keldon Johnson Miye Oni Tyus Battle Quinndary Weatherspoon Jaylen Nowell Josh Reaves Kerwin Roach Caleb Martin LaGerald Vick CJ Massinburg Kyle Guy Armoni Brooks Lindell Wigginton
I would not draft anybody after Oni/Battle probably
I think that you list is fairly reasonable. Most of the movement I'd do would be to lower end guys, the 2nd rounders. NAW is the last clear first round guy. When you get down into second round and undrafted territory I think the order becomes fairly arbitrary. My personal cutoff for guys I like is essentially at Reaves, but I don't know if I consider him draft worthy, as in being at least #60 on my big board. Without having gone through everyone else or international guys, I'm just guessing about position.
Since this is really my first look-through I'm still thinking about these guys a lot. Have I been to harsh on Norvell? His only bad numbers are his age and Net ORtg/DRtg, and those latter two are kind of BS numbers. I haven't calibrated for age well either. Guys like Johnson or Dort kind of suck right now, so I'm inclined to say don't bother drafting them, but that's extreme. It's also tough with placing guys like Konchar or Poole.
You're higher on Cody Martin I think the consensus is. I can definitely see the appeal of a bigger PG like him, but there is certainly plenty of stuff to worry about.
The only first round guy I'm really unsure about is THT - I know he's young and has this freakish body, but I don't know what I even want him to develop into. What sort of roll do you have for a "SG" who can't shoot, isn't a particularly special passer and is heavier than most PFs? It's not like I hate him, I just don't know what to do with him. It's much easier to imagine what most of the rest of these guys look like if they pan out.
VanWest82 wrote:Thybulle should be on this list. He might be the best defensive player in the draft. I would take him over the majority of guys on that list.
I included him with the SFs. It's fairly arbitrary, but my list of guys I've put in is getting pretty long, so I didn't want to slot a guy in for two positions.
pad300 wrote:How do a pair of 22 year olds (Davis and Reaeves) get green ratings on age? They are both seniors who have the full 4 years in, so they have already had as much development time as practical (ie. less untapped potential)... I don't get it.
They were just the two youngest seniors, that's why they got marked in green. Obviously they aren't 'young', they're just relatively young. I suppose I should have marked them out with light green since they aren't crazy young for a senior.
Here's a full list of senior SGs (lot of combo guards too) who I've considered adding to this chart/analysis. I don't want to bother with all of them, since they'd all be lucky to get drafted, but if there's any who are particularly interesting, I'd be willing to compile their numbers: . ......Justin James.....
Let me know who, if any, of these guys are worth the effort.
