Stats analysis of the 2019 SG class
Posted: Tue Jun 4, 2019 4:39 pm
Point Guards
Small Forwards
Power Forwards
Centers
I've done these for a few drafts and I find them helpful. The data comes from hoop-math.com and sports-reference.com. Points/assists/offensive and defensive rebounds/steals/blocks are all per40. This list includes a ton of prospects, but I've left out about a dozen or so senior SGs who might merit inclusion here, like KeVaughn Allen, Phil Booth and Bryce Brown among others. Let me know who you think I ought to add, if anyone. I will not bother including international prospects, since their stats can't be reasonably compared to college stats, and I try not to include guys who played too few games due to injury or suspicions, but I was pretty complete this time. Guys who only played shortened seasons who I included are Kevin Porter Jr, Lindell Wigginton and Lagerald Vick.
Also be warned, I am not a concise writer, so these get very long. I have put a little analysis of each section in spoilers to make the thing more compact this time.
Vitals
Overall Offense
Penetration
Shooting
Passing
Defense
Overall
Individual player assessments
Athletes
Young
Jarrett Culver – There is a lot to like with him, but I can’t help shake the idea that he’s Evan Turner. Big wing, good playmaker, solid defender, poor shooter. Overall efficiency was poor, took too many shots, but was very effective driving to the basket and dishing the ball around. He needs to learn to hit his 3s and cut out the long 2s but there’s clearly a useful player here and potentially a very good one pending his jump shot.
Romeo Langford – I came away feeling much better about him. While his steal rate and A/TO are bad, he was a black hole and his 3P% sucked, his overall impact on offense was pretty solid for a freshman. His ability to get to the cup, draw contact and convert is solid, especially since everyone quickly figured out that he couldn’t shoot jumpers and wouldn’t pass the ball. If his injury excuse is legit and he actually is a decent jump shooter, then he has a good all-around scoring game and could be a quality volume scorer in the NBA.
Luguentz Dort – He has a lot of serious flaws to worry about. He’s a bit short, he showed terrible touch around the basket in spite of being very strong (reminds me of Stanley Johnson), his 3P% was bad, he dominated the ball way too much given how low his scoring efficiency was, he didn’t pass the ball, and he didn’t look great on defense. He’s also old for a freshman. He at least has a nice frame, got steals and drew fouls, but for that last bit you should have a good FTA/2PA if basically all of your 2s are at the basket. I don’t really see much appeal.
Kevin Porter Jr. – I won’t hold his stats against him too much given that he didn’t play many games, but nothing in them blew me away. I’ll leave it to people who watched him more to say if he’s any good.
Talen Horton-Tucker – Athlete isn’t really the right term for him, but what is he? He certainly ain’t a shooter. His TS% was absolutely horrific. Given that he shot 70% at the rim, that tells you how bad he shot everywhere else. He also didn’t make up for this by passing the ball much, which leaves him with really little to do on offense at his height. He isn’t a small-ball center at 6’2.5” tall, even with his impressive length. Everyone seems to be hoping that he turns into PJ Tucker or something like that, which relies on him becoming a shooter in spite of having no track record. At least he’s really young, but that net ORtg is as bad as I can remember.
Old
Tyus Battle – Battle’s numbers are mostly poor, but I really do think he has hidden potential. Syracuse basically didn’t run an offense this season, it was essentially just a matter of rolling the ball out and asking Battle or someone else to make stuff happen. In those conditions it’s no surprise that his shot distribution was awful and therefore so was his TS%. But he did a fine job attacking the basket, his FT% is pretty good and his 3P% was depressed by taking so many shots off the dribble. In a normal, structured offense, a lot of his bad shots go away and I think his efficiency improves significantly. Same goes for his passing – I think he has better potential as a passer than his AST% suggests. However, the low number of steals in that crazy zone they play is really off-putting. It suggests that he isn’t just bad on defense, but a special sort of bad.
Miye Oni – A big, high-usage wing is typically an interesting prospect, but his production does not look that impressive to me considering the context of being an upperclassman facing Ivy League competition. He didn’t finish that well considering his size and the quality of rim protection he typically faced. He looks like a capable playmaker but not a special one. The blocks are nice, but you really want to see a high steal rate in a wing, and he didn’t get a ton of steals. However, the shooting is good. Size + shooting means he’s still intriguing.
John Konchar – His stats are spectacular across the board except for his free-throw shooting, but the Summit League has basically put one guy into the NBA recently. That guy was George Hill. Now, Konchar’s numbers are all better than Hills, so we can’t dismiss the possibility that he’s got what it takes. His results as a passer leave open the possibility that he could be a big point guard in the NBA too, which everyone loves.
Cody Martin – Clearly he has PG skills and plus size for the position, but he does very little scoring on his own really. You would hope that he’d have more scoring ability at his age. His numbers outside of his passing stats don’t really wow you, but there remains a decent appeal to a large PG with good athleticism.
Quinndary Weatherspoon – He might have the best scoring arsenal of any SG in this class, inside and out. The steal rate is nice but the defense might not be. However, the turnover issues hurt, especially as a senior. At the very least he knows how to shoot and can certainly attack the basket. I think he’s mildly underrated.
Kerwin Roach – He’s got some nice combo-guard skills, but he’s really skinny and his shooting isn’t consistent, especially at the line. As with all of the rest of the seniors, you hope the guy has some sort of elite skill and to hang his hat on, and Roach is more swiss army knife who’s okay at a bunch of stuff. At least he appears to be a better defender than most of these upperclassmen guards.
Shooters
Young
Tyler Herro – I think that he’s being underrated as a prospect. His strengths and weaknesses are pretty straight forward – he’s a dangerous shooter with tons of confidence but super-short arms. Calipari has had a bunch of these “designated shooter” types come through, who often look pretty similar – Malik Monk, Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, James Young, Doron Lamb. They mostly just shoot 3s in college, hiding their potential to do anything else on offense, and don’t impress you with many steals or blocks. Some of them turn into really good players and others disappear without a trace. I think that Herro is closer to being another Booker, rather than another Monk or Young. The high level of impact as a freshman is impressive. He’s got tons of room to grow with his shot distribution. And defensively, Booker had a terrible wingspan too, and Herro did a bit better than him in terms of steals, blocks, rebounds and Net DRtg (he also passed more than Booker). No guarantees, but I think he might be getting overlooked.
Keldon Johnson – For a 3&D prospect he’s really lacking. Horrendous steal and block rates. Decent 3P% but almost no unassisted makes, low FT% and 3s really made up a small % of his shot attempts. He didn’t pass much at all and his A/TO is exactly 1, which is low. His penetration numbers are okay across the board, but nothing in his profile looks exciting. He’s young, and the same things I said about Kentucky shooters hold for him too. That makes him a mystery box that I’m lower on.
Jaylen Nowell – Offensive, it comes down to two issues. First is that he takes way, way, way too many long twos. Nearly half of his shots are in this dead zone. Second, he turns the ball over too much. Those things are probably related – he probably has a weak handle and is therefore forced to pull up short of the basket. But I don’t actually know that for certain, having not watched a ton of PAC12 basketball. If he can turn more of those long twos into layups and 3s though, watch out. He already had a 59TS% taking all of these awful shots. 70% at the rim is great, and he’ll draw more contact if he gets to the rim more often, so I’m not worried about the FT rate. And he’s shown a consistent ability to hit 3s. Like Battle, if he does fix his shot distribution, you’ll still need to worry about his defense, as his low steal rate in that zone is really concerning, and unlike Battle he’s not very tall. Still, there’s potential here.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker – Virginia Tech’s PG missed a good portion of the season, and NAW was forced to step in as PG, which he clearly isn’t suited for, hurting his net ORtg. However, he did clearly demonstrate that he’s a capable secondary playmaker. He’s capable though not great at getting to the rim and finishing, and he’s been a consistent 3 point shooter over two seasons, though he mainly spots up. Defensively he seems to have done okay, although I don’t take that 2 steals per40 that seriously, since IIRC he played in a lot of zone. I understand the concerns about his athleticism, but his statistical profile doesn’t throw up many red flags, so I think he’s getting mildly underrated.
Jordan Poole – He’s shown clear ability to hit 3s from NBA range. Unfortunately, that is mostly it with him. Too often when iso’d he’d settle for a jumper instead of driving, and consequently he didn’t do much passing either. He isn’t explosive but he isn’t slow, and he does have a decent handle, so it’s more a matter of choice instead of ability. Also, his defense was poor, clearly the worst defender on a very well coached defensive team. It pains me to trash him like this. However, he’s still young, especially for a sophomore and there’s no question he can shoot 3s, so he’s not all bad.
Zach Norvell – His offensive numbers across the board are okay to good, but his net ORtg was bad. I think that this is because he was a product of an offensively talented Gonzaga team beating up on the WCC, rather than a driving force behind Gonzaga’s offense. He’s old for a sophomore too. His Net DRtg was also bad despite a nice steal rate. Still, the 3 point shot was very good, and he produced a ton of assists despite taking over 60% of his shots from 3. I don’t believe in him but I can see why someone would like him. Really, outside of the poor Net ORtg/DRtg and age, his profile looks good.
Lindell Wigginton – I don’t really know why he came out early. He didn’t play a full season, although his stats are mostly in line with his first year. He’s essentially ‘just a shooter’. About half of his shots were 3s and most of his makes were assisted. He didn’t get to the rim much on his own at all, though he was effective when he got there. He didn’t do a ton of passing and his defensive numbers stink. If he were 6’5” in shoes I could say ‘eh, whatever’, but he’s listed at 6’2”. Also, his FT% is bad. I don’t know what’s up here.
Old
Armoni Brooks – He takes being “just a shooter” to an extreme. 9% of his shots are at the rim vs. 73% from 3, and his assist rate is just 5.5. He quite literally doesn’t do anything but shoot 3s. That might be a bit concerning given his low FT%, but that could just be a result of him taking fewer FTs (46 this year, 83 overall) than 3s (310 this years, 577 for his career). His defensive numbers also suck outside of really good defensive rebounding, but I imagine that he’s just cleaning up while other guys box out. In any event, I’m worried about my guards staying in front of guys, not rebounding. He’s listed at just 6’3” and those steal and block rates suggest short arms. He is young for a junior, but he brings nothing to the table except spot-up shooting.
Kyle Guy – He’s not as much of a one-dimensional guy as Brooks is, but that’s not saying much. 15% of his shots were at the rim vs. 64% from 3, etc. Defensively, he rates out substantially worse than Brooks does, which isn’t surprising given that he’s too short to be a SG in the NBA, has short arms and is extremely light weight. Hard to see him having a chance.
CJ Massinburg – The main issue with him is his size. He’s pretty small for a shooting guard, not too small but borderline. None of his stats disqualify him, but you want to see really special stuff from a senior playing in a weak conference. At the very least, he’s a proven sharp-shooter who can do it off the bounce, and his size is not really any worse than Dort’s.
Caleb Martin – He is another guy who is essentially “just a shooter”. 64% of his shots were from 3. Unfortunately, he only shot 33.8% from 3, and has never had an impressive FT%. He has an okay track record, 35.9% from 3 for his career, but he’s not really a knock-down shooter. Outside of his shooting he’s almost clear across the board, but if he really had much of a knack for driving to the basket or passing, you’d think that we’d have seen him do more of those things during his 4 year college career, and we haven’t. Since he’s really old, being just sort of okay at a bunch of things isn’t really good enough.
Josh Reaves – Simply put, he is offensively challenged but defensively the best guy available. He’s shown better on offense playing as a role-player his previous season with Tony Carr setting him up, but he clearly cannot create for himself or others much, and should be restricted to spotting up, which he can do. He’s a senior and his measurements don’t blow you away, but there isn’t a more proven perimeter defender in this draft class.
Terence Davis – A sort of compromise on Reaves is Davis. He has essentially the same body dimensions, not quite as many steals and blocks but more rebounds, and is friskier on offense. Unlike Reaves he only shot the 3 well his senior year, which makes him more of a risk as a 3&D guy, but he’s shown more ability to create his own shot and handle. He isn’t great on offense by any means, but he’s handled a much larger scoring load on offense.
Lagerald Vick – His stats suffer from a shortened season, but the takeaway is straightforward. He is a knockdown shooter, but not much else as a senior. The steal rate is an illusion, as his previous three seasons it was quite low. He might be the best shooter in this class though, so if you want a proven shooter, he’s the guy.
Small Forwards
Power Forwards
Centers
I've done these for a few drafts and I find them helpful. The data comes from hoop-math.com and sports-reference.com. Points/assists/offensive and defensive rebounds/steals/blocks are all per40. This list includes a ton of prospects, but I've left out about a dozen or so senior SGs who might merit inclusion here, like KeVaughn Allen, Phil Booth and Bryce Brown among others. Let me know who you think I ought to add, if anyone. I will not bother including international prospects, since their stats can't be reasonably compared to college stats, and I try not to include guys who played too few games due to injury or suspicions, but I was pretty complete this time. Guys who only played shortened seasons who I included are Kevin Porter Jr, Lindell Wigginton and Lagerald Vick.
Also be warned, I am not a concise writer, so these get very long. I have put a little analysis of each section in spoilers to make the thing more compact this time.
Vitals
Spoiler:
Overall Offense
Spoiler:
Penetration
Spoiler:
Shooting
Spoiler:
Passing
Spoiler:
Defense
Spoiler:
Overall
Spoiler:
Individual player assessments
Athletes
Young
Jarrett Culver – There is a lot to like with him, but I can’t help shake the idea that he’s Evan Turner. Big wing, good playmaker, solid defender, poor shooter. Overall efficiency was poor, took too many shots, but was very effective driving to the basket and dishing the ball around. He needs to learn to hit his 3s and cut out the long 2s but there’s clearly a useful player here and potentially a very good one pending his jump shot.
Romeo Langford – I came away feeling much better about him. While his steal rate and A/TO are bad, he was a black hole and his 3P% sucked, his overall impact on offense was pretty solid for a freshman. His ability to get to the cup, draw contact and convert is solid, especially since everyone quickly figured out that he couldn’t shoot jumpers and wouldn’t pass the ball. If his injury excuse is legit and he actually is a decent jump shooter, then he has a good all-around scoring game and could be a quality volume scorer in the NBA.
Luguentz Dort – He has a lot of serious flaws to worry about. He’s a bit short, he showed terrible touch around the basket in spite of being very strong (reminds me of Stanley Johnson), his 3P% was bad, he dominated the ball way too much given how low his scoring efficiency was, he didn’t pass the ball, and he didn’t look great on defense. He’s also old for a freshman. He at least has a nice frame, got steals and drew fouls, but for that last bit you should have a good FTA/2PA if basically all of your 2s are at the basket. I don’t really see much appeal.
Kevin Porter Jr. – I won’t hold his stats against him too much given that he didn’t play many games, but nothing in them blew me away. I’ll leave it to people who watched him more to say if he’s any good.
Talen Horton-Tucker – Athlete isn’t really the right term for him, but what is he? He certainly ain’t a shooter. His TS% was absolutely horrific. Given that he shot 70% at the rim, that tells you how bad he shot everywhere else. He also didn’t make up for this by passing the ball much, which leaves him with really little to do on offense at his height. He isn’t a small-ball center at 6’2.5” tall, even with his impressive length. Everyone seems to be hoping that he turns into PJ Tucker or something like that, which relies on him becoming a shooter in spite of having no track record. At least he’s really young, but that net ORtg is as bad as I can remember.
Old
Tyus Battle – Battle’s numbers are mostly poor, but I really do think he has hidden potential. Syracuse basically didn’t run an offense this season, it was essentially just a matter of rolling the ball out and asking Battle or someone else to make stuff happen. In those conditions it’s no surprise that his shot distribution was awful and therefore so was his TS%. But he did a fine job attacking the basket, his FT% is pretty good and his 3P% was depressed by taking so many shots off the dribble. In a normal, structured offense, a lot of his bad shots go away and I think his efficiency improves significantly. Same goes for his passing – I think he has better potential as a passer than his AST% suggests. However, the low number of steals in that crazy zone they play is really off-putting. It suggests that he isn’t just bad on defense, but a special sort of bad.
Miye Oni – A big, high-usage wing is typically an interesting prospect, but his production does not look that impressive to me considering the context of being an upperclassman facing Ivy League competition. He didn’t finish that well considering his size and the quality of rim protection he typically faced. He looks like a capable playmaker but not a special one. The blocks are nice, but you really want to see a high steal rate in a wing, and he didn’t get a ton of steals. However, the shooting is good. Size + shooting means he’s still intriguing.
John Konchar – His stats are spectacular across the board except for his free-throw shooting, but the Summit League has basically put one guy into the NBA recently. That guy was George Hill. Now, Konchar’s numbers are all better than Hills, so we can’t dismiss the possibility that he’s got what it takes. His results as a passer leave open the possibility that he could be a big point guard in the NBA too, which everyone loves.
Cody Martin – Clearly he has PG skills and plus size for the position, but he does very little scoring on his own really. You would hope that he’d have more scoring ability at his age. His numbers outside of his passing stats don’t really wow you, but there remains a decent appeal to a large PG with good athleticism.
Quinndary Weatherspoon – He might have the best scoring arsenal of any SG in this class, inside and out. The steal rate is nice but the defense might not be. However, the turnover issues hurt, especially as a senior. At the very least he knows how to shoot and can certainly attack the basket. I think he’s mildly underrated.
Kerwin Roach – He’s got some nice combo-guard skills, but he’s really skinny and his shooting isn’t consistent, especially at the line. As with all of the rest of the seniors, you hope the guy has some sort of elite skill and to hang his hat on, and Roach is more swiss army knife who’s okay at a bunch of stuff. At least he appears to be a better defender than most of these upperclassmen guards.
Shooters
Young
Tyler Herro – I think that he’s being underrated as a prospect. His strengths and weaknesses are pretty straight forward – he’s a dangerous shooter with tons of confidence but super-short arms. Calipari has had a bunch of these “designated shooter” types come through, who often look pretty similar – Malik Monk, Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, James Young, Doron Lamb. They mostly just shoot 3s in college, hiding their potential to do anything else on offense, and don’t impress you with many steals or blocks. Some of them turn into really good players and others disappear without a trace. I think that Herro is closer to being another Booker, rather than another Monk or Young. The high level of impact as a freshman is impressive. He’s got tons of room to grow with his shot distribution. And defensively, Booker had a terrible wingspan too, and Herro did a bit better than him in terms of steals, blocks, rebounds and Net DRtg (he also passed more than Booker). No guarantees, but I think he might be getting overlooked.
Keldon Johnson – For a 3&D prospect he’s really lacking. Horrendous steal and block rates. Decent 3P% but almost no unassisted makes, low FT% and 3s really made up a small % of his shot attempts. He didn’t pass much at all and his A/TO is exactly 1, which is low. His penetration numbers are okay across the board, but nothing in his profile looks exciting. He’s young, and the same things I said about Kentucky shooters hold for him too. That makes him a mystery box that I’m lower on.
Jaylen Nowell – Offensive, it comes down to two issues. First is that he takes way, way, way too many long twos. Nearly half of his shots are in this dead zone. Second, he turns the ball over too much. Those things are probably related – he probably has a weak handle and is therefore forced to pull up short of the basket. But I don’t actually know that for certain, having not watched a ton of PAC12 basketball. If he can turn more of those long twos into layups and 3s though, watch out. He already had a 59TS% taking all of these awful shots. 70% at the rim is great, and he’ll draw more contact if he gets to the rim more often, so I’m not worried about the FT rate. And he’s shown a consistent ability to hit 3s. Like Battle, if he does fix his shot distribution, you’ll still need to worry about his defense, as his low steal rate in that zone is really concerning, and unlike Battle he’s not very tall. Still, there’s potential here.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker – Virginia Tech’s PG missed a good portion of the season, and NAW was forced to step in as PG, which he clearly isn’t suited for, hurting his net ORtg. However, he did clearly demonstrate that he’s a capable secondary playmaker. He’s capable though not great at getting to the rim and finishing, and he’s been a consistent 3 point shooter over two seasons, though he mainly spots up. Defensively he seems to have done okay, although I don’t take that 2 steals per40 that seriously, since IIRC he played in a lot of zone. I understand the concerns about his athleticism, but his statistical profile doesn’t throw up many red flags, so I think he’s getting mildly underrated.
Jordan Poole – He’s shown clear ability to hit 3s from NBA range. Unfortunately, that is mostly it with him. Too often when iso’d he’d settle for a jumper instead of driving, and consequently he didn’t do much passing either. He isn’t explosive but he isn’t slow, and he does have a decent handle, so it’s more a matter of choice instead of ability. Also, his defense was poor, clearly the worst defender on a very well coached defensive team. It pains me to trash him like this. However, he’s still young, especially for a sophomore and there’s no question he can shoot 3s, so he’s not all bad.
Zach Norvell – His offensive numbers across the board are okay to good, but his net ORtg was bad. I think that this is because he was a product of an offensively talented Gonzaga team beating up on the WCC, rather than a driving force behind Gonzaga’s offense. He’s old for a sophomore too. His Net DRtg was also bad despite a nice steal rate. Still, the 3 point shot was very good, and he produced a ton of assists despite taking over 60% of his shots from 3. I don’t believe in him but I can see why someone would like him. Really, outside of the poor Net ORtg/DRtg and age, his profile looks good.
Lindell Wigginton – I don’t really know why he came out early. He didn’t play a full season, although his stats are mostly in line with his first year. He’s essentially ‘just a shooter’. About half of his shots were 3s and most of his makes were assisted. He didn’t get to the rim much on his own at all, though he was effective when he got there. He didn’t do a ton of passing and his defensive numbers stink. If he were 6’5” in shoes I could say ‘eh, whatever’, but he’s listed at 6’2”. Also, his FT% is bad. I don’t know what’s up here.
Old
Armoni Brooks – He takes being “just a shooter” to an extreme. 9% of his shots are at the rim vs. 73% from 3, and his assist rate is just 5.5. He quite literally doesn’t do anything but shoot 3s. That might be a bit concerning given his low FT%, but that could just be a result of him taking fewer FTs (46 this year, 83 overall) than 3s (310 this years, 577 for his career). His defensive numbers also suck outside of really good defensive rebounding, but I imagine that he’s just cleaning up while other guys box out. In any event, I’m worried about my guards staying in front of guys, not rebounding. He’s listed at just 6’3” and those steal and block rates suggest short arms. He is young for a junior, but he brings nothing to the table except spot-up shooting.
Kyle Guy – He’s not as much of a one-dimensional guy as Brooks is, but that’s not saying much. 15% of his shots were at the rim vs. 64% from 3, etc. Defensively, he rates out substantially worse than Brooks does, which isn’t surprising given that he’s too short to be a SG in the NBA, has short arms and is extremely light weight. Hard to see him having a chance.
CJ Massinburg – The main issue with him is his size. He’s pretty small for a shooting guard, not too small but borderline. None of his stats disqualify him, but you want to see really special stuff from a senior playing in a weak conference. At the very least, he’s a proven sharp-shooter who can do it off the bounce, and his size is not really any worse than Dort’s.
Caleb Martin – He is another guy who is essentially “just a shooter”. 64% of his shots were from 3. Unfortunately, he only shot 33.8% from 3, and has never had an impressive FT%. He has an okay track record, 35.9% from 3 for his career, but he’s not really a knock-down shooter. Outside of his shooting he’s almost clear across the board, but if he really had much of a knack for driving to the basket or passing, you’d think that we’d have seen him do more of those things during his 4 year college career, and we haven’t. Since he’s really old, being just sort of okay at a bunch of things isn’t really good enough.
Josh Reaves – Simply put, he is offensively challenged but defensively the best guy available. He’s shown better on offense playing as a role-player his previous season with Tony Carr setting him up, but he clearly cannot create for himself or others much, and should be restricted to spotting up, which he can do. He’s a senior and his measurements don’t blow you away, but there isn’t a more proven perimeter defender in this draft class.
Terence Davis – A sort of compromise on Reaves is Davis. He has essentially the same body dimensions, not quite as many steals and blocks but more rebounds, and is friskier on offense. Unlike Reaves he only shot the 3 well his senior year, which makes him more of a risk as a 3&D guy, but he’s shown more ability to create his own shot and handle. He isn’t great on offense by any means, but he’s handled a much larger scoring load on offense.
Lagerald Vick – His stats suffer from a shortened season, but the takeaway is straightforward. He is a knockdown shooter, but not much else as a senior. The steal rate is an illusion, as his previous three seasons it was quite low. He might be the best shooter in this class though, so if you want a proven shooter, he’s the guy.