Small Forwards
Power Forwards
Centers
All of the stats I either found or calculated from hoop-math.com, basketball-reference.com, and tothemean.com. Points, assists, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, steals and blocks are all per40. As a new thing, I've included BPM and RAPM in addition to ORtg/DRtg/Net.
Vitals
Age matters when evaluating guys. As usual I’ve included a bunch of more obscure guys so the chart is heavy on upperclassmen. Morant, Ponds, Peters, Wright-Foreman and Clemons are all young for their class. Waters is old for a sophomore, and nearly as old as senior Wright-Foreman. Elmore, Weiler-Babb, Robinson, Smith Perkins and Reed are all just old period. Few guys break into the league at 23, and especially 24. Size matters too, as few little guys succeed who aren’t freak athletes. Aside from Justin James, all of the taller prospects have poor wingspans (Jerome, Weiler-Babb and White), and so don’t have quite the sort of multi-position versatility that you’d hope. The really short guys (Clemons, Waters, Harper) all at least have decent length for their size, particularly Harper, but he's extremely skinny. In contrast, Clemons is very solidly built for a tiny guard. Carson Edwards has good length and weight for a small guard too. Ky Bowman and Jeremiah Martin are the only guys with plus length who aren’t particularly short. Worst off are probably Bone, Reed and Robinson, who aren’t particularly tall and also have short arms. Shizz Alston somehow weighed in just below the much smaller Jared Harper, which is worth worrying about.
Overall Offense
We care about PGs for what they bring to the table on offense more than anything else.
There are plenty of big time scorers available from all levels of competition. Chris Clemons led the country in scoring, and is joined by fellow mid-major stars JWF and Ja Morant near the top of the heap. Meanwhile, Carson Edwards is the biggest scorer from the high-majors, and notable was much less efficient than these other guys. Justin James and D’Marcus Simonds both have the usage of a top scorer, but were too inefficient to produce as many points. JWF was the most efficient scorer, and did this in spite of taking many mid-range shots. On the other end, Justin Robinson stands out for being efficient in a lower-usage role, relatively speaking. NWB is a zero as a scorer.
In terms of passing, Morant is just a cut above the rest here with a crazy AST%. We have a number of combo-guard types, but Edward, JFW and Corey Davis stand out as being likely not actual PGs, but just small SGs. Bowman, Simonds and White all struggle with turnovers a bit to go with their lower AST%, in contrast to Clemons or Smith. Martin and Reed rate out as combo-guards here with acceptable but not great turnover rates.
Offensive rebounding isn’t important for guards except to point out outlier athletes. Martin and Morant are at the top, but Martin is particularly impressive since he faced better competition. Ponds also stands outs since he’s much smaller than most of the other top guys (James, NWB, Bowman). Davis too. Guys at the bottom are typically just small and not particularly explosive.
Some guys with poor efficiency just suffer from bad shot-selection, like Justin James, although he’s a victim of circumstances. JFW is crazy efficient for taking so many mid-range shots, and Reed is pretty efficient for having such bad shot selection – it’s a bit worrying that he’s taking so many poor shots at his age though.
Upperclassmen guards ought to have large offensive impacts. NWB, Perkins, Waters (is upperclassman aged), Edwards, Peters and Simonds are all negative-impact guys on offense, a terrible red flag. Edwards at least has an excuse with his crazy-high usage, Waters does not. The rest you may as well write off as prospects. Coby White also has negative impact, but freshmen typically do poorly, or at least worse than older players by this metric, so we'll forgive him. Reed has the top impact of any high-major prospect, which isn’t too surprising given his age, but a is a little surprising given that none of the summary stats listed are that exciting. Justin James has good impact in spite of poor efficiency on high usage – unlike Carson Edwards. That’s really just a statement on how bad his team was though.
Penetration
Creating your own looks at the basket is pretty critical for PGs, since the threat of them driving helps set up their passing quite a bit. Failing to do so in college helps tell us who doesn’t have the athleticism to threaten NBA defenses.
Almost every prospect has some questions here. Some just don't get to the cup often enough (White, Reed, Smith, NWB, Davis, Alston). Some can't finish (Harper, Hands, Edwards, Elmore, Peters). Some get too much help (Clemons, JWF, Martin, Morant). Some just can't draw contact (Bone, Jerome).
Simonds, Ponds, Perkins, Waters, James and Bowman are who’s left. Perkins doesn’t impress me much given his age/level of competition/low volume. Bowman is mostly just clearing low thresholds than really looking good at this, so that leaves James, Ponds, Simonds and Waters and looking in the clear. Of course, some of the guys with ‘questions’ look fine to me, like Morant, Martin, White and Reed.
Robinson’s data is skewed by a shortened season. Previously he seemed fairly capable of getting to the rim. His finishing wasn’t great but he did have a knack for drawing contact.
Peters, Smith, NWB, Jerome, Davis and Alston are solidly in the danger zone as penetrators. Alston’s weight probably has something to do with him never getting to the rim.
Shooting
Point guards have to be able to shoot in this league unless they're essentially Westbrook-type athletes. Outside of the obvious about 3P% and FT%, a low overall volume can indicate that a guy isn’t comfortable with his shot even if the results ended up looking good. Low % assisted can help explain a guy with a low 3P% but otherwise decent numbers (taking a bunch of tough looks), while a high % assisted could show that a guy isn’t comfortable enough with his shot to try taking shots off the dribble.
These guys are all safe bets as shooters: Alston, Clemons, Davis, Smith, Edwards, JFW, Elmore, White, Harper, Jerome, Robinson, Hands, Bowman and Perkins. Harpers in particularly is a machine off the dribble, and less than a quarter of his makes were assisted, an insane number. Perkins and Robinson are the only ones among that group who don’t look like capable pull-up shooters.
Ponds has been up and down from distance and needs to get more consistent, but his FT% indicates good potential. Reed, Bone and Morant all have good numbers but low volume. I’m mostly worried about Morant of that trio given that his form isn’t great. Waters, NWB, Martin and James all have poor 3P%s and lowish % assisted, so theoretically they could have better %s if they took easier shots, but Martin and James have never been good from 3 or great from the line. Peters is just oddly bad from the line, which seems to be a result of just taking so few FTs, but I bet he’s a fine shooter given what a large % of his offense 3s are.
Only Simonds appears to be completely hopeless as a shooter, but even among guys with a theoretical chance, being mediocre might not be good enough. Not only is the line farther back in the NBA, but we've seen in the playoffs how merely okay shooters get completely ignored.
Passing
Point guards are primarily here to run the offense, so passing is obviously critical. We want guys to avoid turnovers, but creative, high-volume passers always turn the ball over more simply because they take more risks, risks that others can't even see, so we won't knock them too hard.
Perkins, Bone, Jerome, and Harper are all good across the board. Morant and Waters had turnover issues but as I said, I won't knock them too much for taking risks. Hands and Robinson get less of a pass, but have other circumstances involved. Ponds should get credit for doing a remarkable job avoiding turnovers. NWB has a fairly low assist rate for a PG which makes you question his offensive chops.
Below NWB you have a ton of guys who are combo-guards or not PGs at all. Martin, Elmore, White and Smith are all appear to be fine as passers. James I think is fine, but clearly suffered from his extraordinary usage rate and bad team. Bowman, Reed and Simonds are all towards the lower end of combo-guards, with a low volume of assists and poor A/TOs, but theoretically can still play the position. Clemons, Davis, Edwards and JFW all are serious question marks though. Davis is clearly a SG in my opinion. Edwards clearly just doesn’t have true PG ability or temperament or something – if he could pass more we would have seen a better AST%, given that his team had shooters and almost no other playmakers; same thing the year before too. Clemons and JWF I think have potential to do more passing in a different role, but we should wait to see it before we believe it.
Defense
https://imgur.com/Q2lKnOf
We worry the least about defense with PGs, but it's still clearly important and we want guys to be able to offer at least a little resistance when facing all of the elite PGs in this league.
Bowman and James sit near the top in NetDRtg and DRBs, which isn’t too surprising given that they have the best combinations of height and length in this class. They both play like they’re bigger guys, which is especially good for a combo-guard like Bowman who could essentially move to a SG with his shooting.
Waters and Ponds both do shockingly well given their limited size, but both have absolutely elite steal rates, which is an important signal of overall talent, not just defensive ability. Martin, Reed and Smith are just a half-step below those two, but Martin adds a decent number of blocks as well. Robinson and Peters both have good steal rates, but Robinson's came in a shortened season and Peter's numbers are otherwise terrible. Robinson's steal rates were not that great in his full seasons. Morant's numbers a good, and encouraging given his reputation for lacking effort on that end, but you do expect a great athlete to block shots and rebound well at a mid-major. Simonds' block rate at least gives him something to hang his hat on, but the overall picture remains ugly.
No one else rates out well. You'd hope for better from Edwards to make you less uncomfortable about playing him at the 2, but he's not a total disaster. Coby White's disappointing wingspan shows up here. JWF, Davis, Bone and Harper are all in trouble here as guys with poor numbers across the board. Horrific steal rates, no blocks or boards, terrible Net DRtg. You would hope for better from Harper, who has a great wingspan for someone his size.
Kudos to Ty Jerome for a very good steal rate though. It's very impressive given his awful wingspan and unimpressive lateral quickness. That he got 0 blocks is a bummer, but this might make you hopeful that he could survive in the NBA.
Impact Stats
Jerome, Morant, Waters and White are all liked very much by RAPM and BPM but disliked by Net. Edwards Is in the top cluster in RAPM, but is just okay by BPM and bad by Net. Conversely, Justin James has an excellent Net but poor BPM and worst RAPM. Jared Harper is much higher than I think people expect, and this is because RAPM sees him as an elite offensive talent with merely unimpressive defense. Ponds and Martin are two guys with good NET and BPM, but a mediocre ORPAM gives them middle of the pack RAPM overall.
The three impact stats have a consensus that Clemons and Smith are good offensive players, Reed is a good defender, Simonds is a bad offensive player and JWF is a bad defensive player, among some others to varying degrees.
Individual Evaluations
Ty Jerome
The passing numbers are elite, though he doesn't look like a special passer on the court, just plays mistake free. His steal rate is crazy good given his terrible wingspan and given that Virginia is ultra-conservative on defense, so his hands and anticipation are fantastic. He's also really good at hitting floaters, but he has to be, because he just lacks NBA level athleticism. He is too slow to get past guys and isn't vertically explosive. His impact number suggest that he is being badly underrated, and that in spite of his lack of speed and length he can be a perfectly capable defender. Now, I think that RAPM has a bit of a bias towards team quality boosting him up (that is, Jermone’s DRAPM is in part, a product of being on an elite defensive team), but I do believe the general direction it’s pointing in – Jerome is underrated.
Carsen Edwards
He's very long and has good weight for his size, but it doesn't show up on the boards or in his defensive numbers. He also was the worst finisher in this class. His passing numbers stink, one of just two guys with an A/TO below 1. Even in previous years when Purdue had a lot more offensive talent around him, his passing numbers still stunk, so it isn't just a matter of role. His volume is crazy but his efficiency is poor. It all comes down to his jump shot - he's a guy who can get his shot of quickly and from anywhere on the court, with unlimited range. Just how much value does he bring with that given his deficiencies everywhere else? The mixed opinions of the impact stats reflect the real-life variety of opinions on him, but I think he’d be a great fit in Philly at least.
Ja Morant
His shot distribution is telling - more than half of his shots are at the rim and less than 30% are from 3. Even though his 3P% was good this year, and his FT% has been very good for two years, he clearly plays like his jump shot is not reliable. An oddly high% of his makes at the rim are assisted, and for such an explosive athlete playing at a mid-major, his FG% at the rim isn't that impressive; you'd expect it to be higher. His AST% is astronomically large, about 15 points higher than the next best guy, so no reason to worry about the high TOV%. His steal and block rates are pretty good but not incredible. He played better defense as a freshman with a much lower usage, so I don't think he's sure to be a disaster on defense in the NBA even if his skinny frame will limit him, and in fact, he has the best DRAPM of any PG in this class. Biggest thing to keep in mind his is age - he's really young, so there is obviously tons of upside. He remains the best PG prospect in this class.
Tremont Waters
He has a lot more negatives than I thought he would - poor 3P%, poor TS%, A/TO on the low side since he struggled with turnovers, and old for a sophomore. Still, with his handle and vision you can clearly see potential on offense (just 2.7% of his makes at the rim were assisted too!), and his FT% gives you hope that his jump shot can come around. The real standout feature with him is steals - he doesn't have crazy length nor did he play in a zone, he just has a preternatural ability to take the ball away from people. 3.6 steals per40 is ridiculous. He's in Marcus Smart territory there. Since steals are such a good indicator generally and I've liked his skills when I watched him, I still like him a lot. The impact numbers love him as well, having him near the top-tier of guys, with very good defensive impact numbers. He could easily be a steal in the 2nd round.
Jared Harper
His biggest asset is that he's an artist pulling up from 3. Fewer than a quarter of his makes were assisted, which I cannot emphasize enough. It’s crazy. In addition, all of his passing stats are really good and his FTA/2PA was great. However, his lack of size is really obvious - he makes just half of his shots at the rim and has the fewest rebounds of any of these guys, and just horrific numbers on defense generally. DRAPM has him below average for this class, which is the nicest thing you can say. He also was a fairly low-volume scorer compared to much of this class, though hardly bad. You would think that he could at least manage to pick up a good number of steals given his impressive wingspan relative to his height, but no, not even that. Still, with these 2nd round/undrafted types you want to see some sort of elite skill you can bank on, and he's got one in his pull-up game. As with Edwards, there is serious appeal to a guy who can create his own looks from deep, get them off under any circumstances and knock them down at a high rate.
Coby White
Lots to like with him - he finished at the rim very well, his 3P% wasn't great but he was good from the line and certainly shoots like a guy confident in his jump shot. His passing numbers are clearly more combo-guard than pure PG, but they aren't bad. He is tall, but his short wingspan is an issue and he plays smaller than his height - he doesn't give you much on defense yet. There's certainly a world in which he busts - the steals per40 and A/TO are unimpressive; if he doesn't improve as a playmaker and relies too heavily on a streaky jump shot, playing a super-inefficient brand of basketball, then you’re looking at a bad 6th man. On the other hand, there's clear upside as a tall, dangerous scoring guard, and I like his odds. I’d consider him ahead of Garland.
Corey Davis
Clearly an undersized SG. He just knocks down 3s and rarely attacks the basket. His AST% is higher than that of a mere spot-up shooter though, and his A/TO is nice. Still, his defensive numbers are abysmal outside of DRAPM, which is oddly very high on him. If you want a PG type player who essentially is just a shooter, there are plenty of other guys who can do that and bring more to the table, or at least who can create more of their own looks and have a track record as a volume scorer. I would have no interest in drafting him, personally.
Nick Weiler-Babb
Outside of his height and A/TO there's nothing interesting about him. Very low scoring efficiency given his low volume, nothing really stands out in a good way anywhere else. That all makes it very odd that his BPM and RAPM are middle of the pack, driven mainly by his defensive numbers.
Justin Robinson
His numbers this season were mostly good, but since he missed a lot of games and I haven't watched much of him to make up for it, I can't say anything informative about him.
Lamar Peters
The numbers really hate him, excluding RAPM and OBPM. Low volume scorer, inefficient at the rim, bad from the line, poor career shooter, really turnover prone given his usage, no blocks, class-low in defensive rebounding. High steal rate is basically the only thing really going for him here, again outside of RAPM and OBPM. I’ve heard much better things about him than this, but I don't have a concrete reason to reject what the numbers are saying.
Jordan Bone
Low scoring volume is understandable given who he was playing next to at Tennessee, but there are still lots of problems. He did not finish all that well at the rim and drew almost no free throws. His 3P% and FT% are both good but the volume is really low and he has fewer unassisted makes than anyone in this class. His passing numbers are great but he did have a pair of studs to give the ball to. And finally, his defensive numbers are all awful. His combine athleticism just doesn't show up in these numbers at all - why just a quarter of his shots at the rim if he's so fast and explosive? Why the low FG% at the rim? Why can't get draw contact? And on defense, is he just slacking off? It isn't as though he has a heavy burden he's carrying on offense. RAPM and BPM have him middle of the pack, but I don’t like him.
Shamorie Ponds
His profile is really impressive, with 3P% being the only exception. He does fine getting to the basket and scoring. He clearly has the speed and handle to get past guys. His passing is good, but in particular he does really well at avoiding turnovers, better than anyone else near him in terms of AST% or USG%. He's too small to be a genuine impact defender, but his steal rate is excellent, and has been consistently great at generating steals. His defensive impact numbers back up the “good but not great” defense. A/TO and steals are two of the better indicators of NBA impact and he's top notch in those. If he can make his 3 point shot a consistent threat, especially off the dribble, then I think there is really good upside. He's also a year younger than fellow juniors Ty Jerome and Ky Bowman too, so he's got youth for an upperclassman. ORAPM considers his offensive impact to be mediocre, while Net ORtg and OBPM love him.
Marcquise Reed
He's a bit odd looking, as an older prospect. For whatever reason he went from taking 28.5% of his shots from 2 but not the rim to 48.4%. If his shot distribution goes back to normal, he could be a really efficient scorer. His 3P% and FT% were good and his career %s are good too. His steal rate is great for a guy with short-ish arms. His defensive impact numbers are in agreement that he’s pretty good on defense. He's not a great finisher but he's not terrible. The bigger problems are his age and his passing - his AST% and A/TO are both low and he doesn't have the size to play SG. He is not someone you draft, but a UDFA type with a shot to stick around.
Daishon Smith
He's a small scoring guard who relies mostly on his jump shot, which is excellent and he hits on volume. He does not take enough shots at the rim because he lacks the vertical to finish consistently, but he can get past guys and he does draw a ton of contact. His passing is not otherworldly, and fairly low volume for someone who's The Man on his team, but it doesn't seem to be a problem. He does a fine job avoiding turnovers. His defensive impact numbers are mixed, some good and some bad, but he did generate a bunch of steals, and steals are generally a good indicator for a prospect. He probably won’t get drafted, but he could potentially contribute as a shooter off the bench, with more proven PG skills than guys like Edwards, Clemons and JWF, and better steals (and presumably defense) than most of them or Harper.
Shizz Alston
Super-skinny scorer who took on a big load on offense due to Temple suffering from chronic injuries. Elite FT% but just okay 3P%, clearly a result of taking a lot of tough shots - also note the low Good Shot %. Passing numbers and steals are all solidly PG quality but not impressive. The biggest issues for him besides age all stem from his lack of weight - he hardly ever shoots at the rim and he rebounds like he's 5'5". If he could put on a big of muscle, then that might improve his shot distribution and allow him to get to the rim and not get pushed off his spots. But why is he still so skinny as a senior? In his favor, Net ORtg and OBPM like him, and his DRAPM is decent. Theoretically there’s a decent scoring guard who takes and makes tough shots from distance, but he’s further down the list, into UDFA territory.
Chris Clemons
He's an undersized scoring machine, biggest scorer in college basketball. His 3P% isn't too impressive but he's excellent from the line and solidly efficient at the rim, along with drawing a lot of contact. You'd like a super-elite % at the rim since he's at a low-major and he's super small, but at the very least is doesn't disqualify him. The defensive numbers and not impressive, but you'll have to just live with him being a minus on that end given his size. The real question is how good of a passer is he? All of his passing numbers except TOV% are really low. There's clearly a role component to this, but you'll want to see more of that from him at the NBA level. The chances of any guy under 6' making it in the NBA are terrible, but he's one of the guys who's earned a shot. His Net ORtg is great, his OBPM is best-in-class, and his ORAPM is good. It’s not crazy to take a flyer on him in the second and hope he’s the next Isaiah Thomas, but the odds are always long for guys this small.
Josh Perkins
His passing numbers are really good, and his steal rate his fairly high, but I don't believe in him. He's another cog in the machine of a great offense, rather than the driving force making it great, which you can see in his really low USG%. His 3-point shot is good but he's getting set up more often than most PGs, his penetration numbers are fine but not impressive, especially since his team got to beat up on the weak WCC. And he's just old and inexplosive. He won't make mistakes, and you can see the value in that in guys like Monte Morris, but Morris was a really special guy in terms of A/TO coming out and Perkins is just good. The impact numbers on offense are just okay, and are mostly poor on defense.
Jeremiah Martin
Pretty underrated combo-guard. He's not without problems. He gets assisted a lot at the rim for a PG. His 3P% has never been really good (though it's not abysmal or anything). His A/TO is on the lower end. But he's clearly got some ability. He's got plus length, and he puts it to use by getting a lot of steals, a good number of blocks, and crashing the offensive glass. Memphis was a bit of a mess on the court in Penny's first year as head coach, which I think hurt Martin, but he's a guy with sneaky upside for a senior.
Justin Wright-Foreman
Another hyper-efficient scoring guard like Clemons, but JWF has normal PG size. He's the most efficient scorer in this class, and did so in spite of taking a lot of mid-range shots, which he hit at a great rate, though at the expense of his FTr. He's a crazy good 3-point shooter, able to hit off the catch, coming off screens or off the dribble. His teammate did most of the playmaking, and his passing numbers are those of a SG not a PG, but he does occasionally show nice vision IMO. Unlike Clemons and Edwards though, his defensive numbers are awful across the board. It's not too surprising given that no one in the CAA plays defense, but it's still concerning that he couldn't manage just 1 steal per40, worst in the class.
Jon Elmore
Hillbilly Harden had a down year. His 2P% dropped from 52% to 42.6%, his FT% dropped from 82.6% to 78.9%, his FTA/2PA dropped from 1.007 to .755, all causing his TS% to plummet from 59.3% to 53.9%. His A/TO dropped from 1.84 to 1.64, and his assists per40 dropped from 7.1 to 5.6. Especially in light of his previous season, he's not unexciting. He's a good shot-maker who can draw contact and dish a bit, and his steal/block/DRB numbers are good even if no one expects him to be a really good defender. His finishing is poor, but the ability to draw contact could make up for it, and in his previous two seasons he took 37.6% and 34.3% of his shots at the rim, so it seems that he can get there. The impact numbers mostly stink though, so he’s essentially just UDFA fodder.
D'Marcus Simonds
He had a down year, but even so he isn't a great prospect. Terrible efficiency, clearly can't shoot, not even a great finisher to make up for it, A/TO below 1, few steals. The only thing he has going for him is that he gets to the rim at will and blocks shots, but that's not enough to make him very interesting. I don't know why he left school early.
Ky Bowman
His biggest assets are his consistent 3-point shooting and his length, which shows up in his rebounds and blocks. However, his overall scoring efficiency was poor (probably should have jacked more 3s, surprisingly low volume), his passing numbers are unimpressive and his steal rate is low. With his length you could think of moving him to SG maybe, but those impact numbers on both sides of the ball are not promising. He’s essentially a worse version of Ty Jerome in terms of NBA role.
Jaylen Hands
UCLA was a disaster, so his numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt, but for a sophomore in a bad situation they aren't bad. He produced a ton of assists in spite of the team giving up on the year, he's had two seasons of consistently good shooting from 3, mostly unassisted, he got to the rim at a decent rate and also got steals at a decent rate. His finishing was very poor and his scoring volume was relatively low, but overall he looks a lot better than I thought he would. Nothing really stands out and makes me think that he has great potential though, besides that he's reasonably young. His impact numbers are all low.
Justin James
He's the largest PG in this class by a mile, with not only plus height but also plus length. His team was abysmal though, and so he took on a very high usage which killed his efficiency. He was pretty capable of getting to the rim and converting, which is more impressive when you know his jump shot is a problem and people could play him for the drive on a team with little spacing.
In his previous two seasons, his TS% was above 56% (competent not impressive). But his A/TO was consistently close to 1, peaked at 1.2. So his ability to really run an offense is questionable. Some of this is related to his handle being too loose. His 3P% and FT% for his career are on the low end, but not so low that it's inconceivable for him to become okay. His ORB, DRB, and block numbers all show that he plays to his size, though his steal rate is only okay, low for a guy his size. The size and length give him potential positional versatility, but he'll need to improve as either a passer or shooter to stick around on offense. His BPM and RAPM numbers are absolutely horrific however. I would consider picking him up and trying to develop him given his dimensions, but as a senior he remains a long shot.
Other Guys
John Konchar, Cody Martin and Kerwin Roach are potentially PGs who I stuck in the SG post. A few guys I did not include but could have are Barry Brown (defensive stud with limited offense), Tookie Brown (undersized but productive and can shoot), Matt Morgan (sharp-shooting volume scorer with passing limitations but too small for SG) and DeShon Taylor (another volume scorer from 3 with solid PG skills).
