Shooting Guards
Power Forwards
Centers
All of the stats I either found or calculated from hoop-math.com, basketball-reference.com, and tothemean.com. Points, assists, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, steals and blocks are all per40. As a new thing, I've included BPM and RAPM in addition to ORtg/DRtg/Net.
Vitals
These SFs are mostly on the older side, even for their class. In particular, Louis King, Kouat Noi and De’Andre Hunter should be thought of as being a class ahead of where they actually are. Dawkins and Shayok are ancient.
There is remarkably little cheating in terms of height in shoes vs. barefoot among the guys I found measurements for. Schofield is the only guy below 6’6” in shoes who doesn’t have excellent length, and even his length is solid. Only Coffey, Johnson and Mann have genuinely poor length. Coffee in particular. On the other hand, there are plenty of guys with excellent length, including all of the guys you’d expect (Little, Hunter, Thybulle) as well as Daquan Jeffries and Marial Shayok. Shayok, Thybulle and Matthews are all skinny, especially for upperclassmen, which is a bit worrisome given that they are all on the shorter end of the spectrum at SF. Louis King is quite skinny as well, but he’s younger than the rest and has time to develop his body. Schofield, Hunter and Little are all very bulky.
Offense
Cam Johnson profiles as an efficient, high volume shooter and unsurprisingly has excellent impact on his team’s offense. Mann is a bit harder to figure at first glance, but his numbers are all going to be funky because Florida State plays such an enormous rotation and almost no-one plays real starters minutes. Jeffries was efficient as the focal point of his team. Barrett’s offensive numbers are exactly what you’d expect – high usage and low efficiency. Hunter combined decent volume with good efficiency. In general, there are few volume scorers among this SF class. The only really low usage offensive players were Thybulle, Matthews and Mann.
Few players also were particularly efficient as scorers either, outside of the already mentioned Johnson, Jeffries and Hunter. Shayok, Mann and Dawkins were all fairly efficient, while almost everyone else was in the 56-53TS% range. Reddish, Matthews and Law were all particularly inefficient. Matthews and Law were trying to do more things on offense than their abilities allowed them to handle well, while Reddish just sucked.
There are three notable passers in this group: Barrett, Coffey and Law. Most of the rest of the guys were essentially decent ball movers. Among the guys who did very little passing, Little, Noi and King were mostly finishers who didn’t play with the ball in their hands a ton, while Matthews and Dawkins were shot creators who lacked much vision. Little and Mann crashed the offensive glass like they were big men, and Little did essentially bulk up and play the 4 for UNC.
A low GS% should result in a low TS%, so it’s always encouraging to see a guy be efficient in spite of a bad shot distribution, as was the case for Hunter, and to a less extent Shayok. A lot of long 2s helps explain Law and Matthews’ poor TS%s, though neither have ever been terribly efficient.
Penetration
The top offensive rebounders (Mann and Little) lived at the rim on offense in general. Most of the prospects take a reasonable % of their shots at the rim. Most of the guys under 30% are guys who rely on their jump shots heavily to score. Schofield and Shayok are lower than I expected, and surrounded by spot-up shooter types in Noi and King. Dawkins took far fewer shots at the rim than I expected given his athleticism, while Johnson and Reddish were basically floor-spacers. Law is very disappointing here, but it’s a given with his lack of athleticism.
Thybulle had the best FG% at the rim, an exceptionally high mark at 76.2%. Shayok, Johnson, Jeffries and Matthews were all above 70% as well. Matthews is the only one of this group who does not have exceptional size or length, an indication of his athleticism. Dawkins, Coffey and Schofield were on the lower end of competence, while Wilkes, King, Noi, and Law were all bellow 60%. Reddish was exceptionally incompetent at just 51.2% in spite of his solid size and length.
Thybulle and Reddish had the lowest % of their makes assisted. Matthews, Hunter and Mann all had fairly low %assisted as well. Law, Noi, Schofield, Jeffries and Little all had around half of their makes assisted, and I believe that they all played some minutes at PF. The rest had decent %assisted, nothing special.
The FTA/2PA don’t have much range. Barrett excellent at drawing contact Jeffries is pretty good, Reddish and Coffey had above average rates but were not spectacular at it. Schofield was exceptionally bad at getting to the line however.
Overall, Mann, Coffey, Barrett, Hunter, Matthews, Thybulle, Shayok and Brown receive passing grades as perimeter penetrators. Law and Reddish are the biggest failures. The rest are either PF types who let others create their looks for them (Jeffries, Little), spot-up shooters (Noi, King, Johnson), or just generally missing something (Wilkes, Schofield, Dawkins).
Shooting
Dawkins, Hunter and Johnson are all excellent shooters with long track records. 3s are a low % of Hunter’s offense because his slow release makes it hard for him to get many off (see Zion blocking his 3). Schofield, Shayok, and Jeffries should all be competent, but not at quite the same level as the first three. Brown is the only guy who can create a lot of his own looks from deep and hit them consistently, which is his main appeal. Noi and King should be good shooters, but Noi has a poor career FT% while King only has a one-year sample size. Law and Thybulle should be okay shooters, with decent career numbers and FT%s, but they were both poor this season and have never had particularly elite 3P%s.
Mann had an excellent year as a shooter, but his overall volume was low due to few minutes, and this season is the first time he’s shot well from 3. Wilkes and Coffey have always been poor from 3, but Coffey is at least competent from the line. Reddish and Little were both poor from 3 but good at the line, while Barrett struggled with both. Matthews has always been a bad shooter from 3 and the line, although this season he made fairly substantial improvements as a FT shooter, and he’s been decent from 3 when just spotting up, though in a somewhat small sample size. Of this group, I would only give Mann and Reddish particularly good odds at becoming good 3-point shooters, but the rest are not total lost causes.
Passing
Schofield serves as the dividing line between competent passers and poor ones. The top 3 assist makers were Barret, Coffey and Law, who all regularly had to initiate the offense for their team to varying degrees of success. Coffey and Law did so more out of necessity because their teams lacked real PGs. Then there are the two low-usage guys who moved the ball well in Mann and Thybulle. Then we have the scorers who did a little passing on the side in Johnson, Jeffries, Hunter and Schofield. Johnson had the best A/To of the class, and Jeffries looked fine. Hunter lacks great skill as a passer and mostly just avoids turning the ball over, as does Schofield.
Below Schofield, Shayok struggled with turnovers a bit. Brown, Dawkins, Matthews and Wilkes didn’t turn the ball over but very rarely passed the ball at all. King, Noi, and Reddish were primarily just spot-up shooters, but Reddish somehow had horrible TOV% in spite of this inherently low TO roll. King was kind of bad with turnovers too. Little was just a disaster, doing essentially no passing but turning over the ball plenty, with stats that resemble a PF/C prospect, not a potential perimeter player.
Defense
Thybulle’s defensive stats are incredible (except the rebounding, yikes). The Syracuse zone is notorious for inflating steal and block rates, but Thybulle’s numbers are exceptional even in this context. Jeffries did very well collecting steals and blocks, looking a bit PF-ish with more blocks than steals. These were a bit easier to come by for him given the level of competition he typically faced. Reddish posted an excellent steal rate, and Johnson, King and Noi did next best in that category. Law, Little and Brown all did fairly well as shot blockers. The first two probably had a few more opportunities to block shots when playing PF. Little and Barrett were the top two rebounders, followed by Law, Schofield and Jeffries.
Everyone else’s numbers are kind of bad. You’d expect more shot blocking from a tall guy like Johnson or a long guy like Noi. Shayok doesn’t have a reputation as a defender, but Hunter having so few steals is a bit shocking. Even in a conservative defensive scheme, Ty Jerome managed a good steal rate. Hunter just doesn’t seem to do much help defense at all. Mann and Coffey you expect to struggle with these stats given their poor wingspans. But what’s Barrett or Wilkes’ deal? Net DRtg just hates this SF class, outside of Thybulle, Jeffries and Law.
Impact Stats
Net ORtg loves Johnson Mann and Jeffries, like Hunter Dawkins and Brown, dislikes King and Barrett and Little, and hates Schofield, Matthews and Reddish. OBPM loves Johnson, Hunter and Shayok, like Mann Barrett and Jeffries, dislikes Thybulle, Little, King and Reddish, and really hates Matthews. ORAPM loves Hunter, Johnson, Schofield and Barrett, likes Shayok, Noi and Wilkes, dislikes Jeffries, Law, King and Thybulle, and hates Brown and Matthews.
Net DRtg hates everyone but Thybulle, Jeffries and Law, as I already stated. DBPM adores Thybulle, loves Matthews, Law, Jeffries and Mann, likes Hunter and Johnson, dislikes Coffey and Shayok, and hates Brown and Wilkes. DRAPM loves Thybulle and Johnson, likes Hunter, Barrett and Matthews, dislikes Noi and Shayok, and hates Jeffries, Wilkes and Brown.
Overall, Hunter and Johnson look excellent, Dawkins, Mann and Thybulle look pretty good, and Wilkes looks pretty bad. Every other guy has some disagreement between the impact stats overall.
Individual Evaluations
Nassir Little
Lots of things screaming bust here. He has physical tools but looks like he lacks feel - a common recipe for a bust. Horrific passing numbers. Didn't do much well on offense except crash the offensive glass and hit his free throws. Didn't show any ability to create for himself or others. Defensive impact was not great. His got few steals or blocks given his crazy length and low minutes. Can't confuse tools with defense, as people did with Andrew Wiggins. Defense is an attitude/effort/feel thing more than athleticism, and those are things you typically just have or don't have, and he really didn't show those things. If he didn't have such a good FT% I'd be totally out on him, but that shows he has a chance to learn how to shoot 3s.
Matisse Thybulle
On offense he's an oddball. He occasionally shows off some nice dribble moves or makes a few nice passes, but he seems to have no confidence in his ability to drive to the basket. He's only been an okay 3-point shooter for his career in spite of his good FT% and form. There are games where he just completely disappears on offense. He shows potential on offense but has yet to really do much there as a senior.
On the other hand, his defense is nuts. His steal and block numbers are historic, all-time-great level. Absolutely freakish. Now, he did this the infamous Syracuse zone, imported to Washington by their coach, which is notorious for wildly inflating steal rates for a lot of guys who sucked on defense (like MCW). And even before Hopkins showed up, his previous coach Romar ran a good amount of zone too. But still, he was producing a lot of steals and blocks even then, and basically no one has managed to do what Thybulle has done. What's more, he has the elite length and underrated athleticism. He rebounded very little, but that's also likely a product of his role in the zone. We really have yet to see a guy transition from the Syracuse zone to playing good defense in the NBA, which is a bit scary, but if anyone will, he should be the one to do it.
Marial Shayok
Old, short but very long. Efficient volume scorer from inside and deep with a solid track record as a shooter. Not much of a passer but hardly a disaster there. Terrible defensive numbers across the board. Few steals+low A/TO+age all make him uninteresting to me.
Daquan Jeffries
He's been an undersized PF for a while, but he has actual perimeter skills. He can shoot, although he had no unassisted makes from 3, but he has a good track record. He did well beating people up inside, finishing through contact. His passing isn't special but he seems to be a proficient ball-mover. And unlike Shayok he put his length to use on defense, with a solid number of steals and blocks. He's also relatively young for a senior. Outside of being a senior and not coming from a power five conference, there isn't an obvious hole here.
Cam Reddish
Unimaginably bad year. Most PGs, even small and unathletic ones, too more of their shots at the rim and hit a better % there than he did. Pretty unimpressive 3P%. And how on earth do you manage to turn the ball over as much as he did when you basically just hang around the 3-point line and chuck jumpers all game? How is it even possible? At least he got a lot of steals, unlike fellow toolsy bust Nassir Little, and he did hit his free throws, but people are talking about him as a 3 and D guy in the NBA - that's exactly the role he had at Duke this year and he was terrible! If he hadn't come in with #1 prospect hype he wouldn't be a first rounder.
Admiral Schofield
Context-free his offense looks fine: good shooter, passing is fine, doesn't draw contact and gets assisted a lot inside but no big deal. However, we all know that he was heavy on post-ups in college and he isn't going to get a lot of those in the NBA. This reduces him to a shooter and ball-mover on offense. That's fine, but on the other end he's in a bind. He isn't that good on defense. He's a bit slow. He's super heavy but he doesn't have the length to play PF and was getting abused even in college. He certainly didn't produce many steals or blocks. He's basically the bad sort of tweener.
Louis King
As a young forward with good size and a good 3-point shot, there's plenty of surface level appeal. However, he's actually old for a freshman, and he looks pretty awkward on the court. He struggled at the rim and his passing numbers are really bad. The steal rate is good, but he didn't look like a stud defender. The impact stats hate him on offense, and are pretty unimpressed with his defense. I can see the appeal in drafting a big 3+D wing, but he’s very limited even for his age.
Vic Law
An older wing who could be a 3 and D guy for you. He shot worse than usual because Northwestern didn't really have a PG and he had to do a lot more on offense. He did alright in that role though, passing fairly well. His stocks aren't impressive and have never been really good but I can tell you that he has played fairly good defense, and the impact stats generally like his defense as well, although he doesn’t rate out as anything like an elite defender. But he isn't that athletic (as per his poor numbers at the rim) and being merely good on defense and an okay shooter probably isn't going to cut it, especially at his age.
Charles Matthews
Matthews' stat line just sucks this year. He has the speed and leaping ability to be dangerous at the rim, but this season he was determined to showcase his jump shot and too often stopped short of the basket and spun around into an unblockable jumper - which he rarely hit. The shooting is just bad in general, especially from the line, although this season he finally showed real improvement from the line. His form on his 3s isn't even bad, he just lacks touch. He also didn't pass very much, always been more of a finisher.
On defense, his steals and blocks are low. He does well in defensive RAPM, but not better than his teammates - since a team's overall quality clearly has an influence on the numbers RAPM puts out, you need to check how a guy does relative to everyone else on his team too. On offense, the bright spots are that he can handle a bit and is still deadly at the rim due to his speed and excellent verticle, and although the volume is low, he actually shot fine from 3 when spotting up. On defense, just watching him play you can see that he's an absolutely elite man defender who regularly erases guys from the game. Michigan plays fairly conservatively, but even then you'd like for him to come up with more steals and blocks. You can tell that he has great timing on his blocks.
Now that's he's torn his ACL he's probably screwed, and given his age it's really questionable if he'll ever learn to shoot, and given his size you can't stick him on bigger wings and expect him to guard them as well (though he is strong for being so thin). But the athleticism and man defense are absolutely elite, and so I think he's still worth taking a shot on.
Kris Wilkes
He wasn't very efficient at the rim, from 3 or the line, and he didn't get many steals or blocks. He did manage to avoid turnovers well. The impact numbers universally dislike him, with ORAPM being the nicest, considering him an okay offensive player at best. Team context can only excuse so much.
Cameron Johnson
Very tall, very old, excellent shooter. Johnson has been a fantastic 3-point shooter on a high volume. He's very reliant on others setting him up with very few unassisted makes. He passes much better than I realized, with a good A/TO and a non-trivial number of assists for a guy who spots up so much. He finishes well at the rim and gets a lot of offensive rebounds for a guy who shoots so many 3. Although he's tall, he really lacks length, which shows in his block rate and unimpressive defensive rebounding. He did a decent job getting steals despite his lack of length however. He checks the boxes as a 3-D guy, and the impact numbers love him on both ends of the floor. There isn’t much upside, but he’s probably a good bet to contribute.
Terance Mann
His offensive output is really low, but not because he can't do stuff, but Florida State is just an unusual team with minutes and shots. He was very effective crashing the offensive glass and takes more than half of his shots at the rim, a very low % of his makes were assisted too. He shot well from 3 and the line this season, but as you can guess from how many of his shots are at the rim, this is a recent development - he did not shoot well in previous seasons. He also was an effective passer for a wing, with the second highest A/TO. However, his steals and blocks are pretty low, and likely a product of him have such a short wingspan. Given that and the late development of his shot, I have a lot of doubts about him, but it was easy to like what I saw from him in-game.
Amir Coffey
He's reasonably effective attacking the basket and passing the ball, but hasn't been a good shooter yet. His team played a pretty hard-to-watch brand of basketball that doesn't help his numbers or efficiency, but he's never looked like a great shooter. I think his assists might be a bit suppressed by his team's poor offense. On the other hand, his defensive numbers are pretty brutal. He doesn't get steals or blocks, and he rebounds like a little point guard in spite of his 6'8" listed height. The impact stats think his offense is just okay, and his defense is a little less than okay. A big, ballhandling wing sounds nice in theory, but Coffey is still some ways away from being a rotation player.
RJ Barrett
He was pretty effective attacking the basket and drawing contact, but his poor jump shooting killed his efficiency. He put up more assists than any SF I've listed here, but his A/To is unremarkable. In spite of his poor efficiency at such high usage, his offensive impact was still fairly good going by OBPM and ORAPM. If he gets a jump shot, naturally he'd be a much more interesting player, and of course, he needs to shoot less in general until he gets more efficient, or at least turn more of those jump shots into layup attempts. His defensive numbers stink aside from rebounding, but if he takes on a smaller usage on offense, perhaps he'll have the energy to play harder on defense - he was sort of an energy guy in high school, and his DRAPM is fairly good. Pretty easy to see what people like about him, especially since he's so young, but he doesn’t look like he has real super-star impact as a two-way player, more like a guy who could be an all-star if things break right.
De'andre Hunter
Though his scoring volume doesn't stand out, his efficiency does. He was much more effective attacking the basket than I realized, finishing well, creating most of his own looks. He's been very good from 3 as well, but it's a much smaller part of his offense than you might realize, just 26.6% of his FGA, due to his slow release. His A/TO is very good, mostly by avoiding turnovers. I think he's a bit of a mechanical passer, but he has avoided mistakes. His defensive numbers are really at odds with his reputation. Even playing in a conservative defensive scheme, he should have managed more steals than he got, like Ty Jerome managed. His DRAPM is pretty good even if his DBPM is just solid and his Net DRtg is bad. Still, there's no questioning the tape, he's an excellent on-ball defender. Clearly, he just wasn’t an active defender off-ball, which is disappointing. Besides the steal rate, the only red flag is his age - he is old for a sophomore and should probably be thought of as an upperclassman. He looks like a solid role-player but not a guy with great upside, no matter how much RAPM and BPM love him.
Kouat Noi
Another old sophomore like Hunter, Noi looks fairly similar actually - similar points, USG%, AST% and TOV%, just worse, and much worse TS%. Unlike Hunter he was very ineffective at the rim, and most of his makes there were assisted. He shot 3s well and on high volume, but wasn't nearly as accurate as Hunter. His passing numbers are just bad. Simply put, Noi is Just A Shooter on offense. On defense, his steals were good, but the rest of his stats suggest a below average defender. Given his age, his lack of offensive contributions outside of shooting 3s, I can't say he's a very good prospect.
Charlie Brown
He's a very high-volume scorer who never passed or turned the ball over. He was reasonably effective at the rim but took just a quarter of his shots there, and his overall efficiency stinks because he took too many long 2s. He's clearly a pretty capable 3-point shooter, and very accurate from the line. His defensive numbers are pretty bad, and he was on a terrible defensive team. Given how skinny he is I doubt he'll ever be particularly good on defense. He has some potential, but there isn't a lot of room for mediocre volume scorers who don't pass or defend well.
Aubrey Dawkins
He's the oldest guy in this class, which makes his limitations on offense a bigger problem. He doesn't attack the basket often at all, nor does he do much passing. He's essentially limited to finishing possessions instead of creating offense, although he is a fairly good at finishing 3s or dunks. There is some value in having a guy who can do those things for you and won’t get in the way, but you want guys who can create a little bit. His steals/blocks/rebounds are all a bit low, and his defensive impact stats are poor as well. In contrast, the offensive impact stats all like him decently well.