Tier 1. He will be the best player in this draft class when it's all said and done.
Tier 2. I see some upsides, at best 3/D
Tier 3. He has real legit upside but he's so far from helping a NBA team right now. He's two years from being two years away. He needs to stay in school for ALL FOUR YEARS.
Tier 4. Undrafted. Trevon Duval like. Even if he has upsides, he will need so much luck.
I fall in line with tier 3. I can see why guys who like him like him. He's a very good talent. There aren't that many of those in this draft. 4 at most while there are 3 excellent talents. So I see what's intriguing about him.
It's that he's extremely raw on offense. It is extremely RAW and it's not like I don't like his defense which I rate as an excellent for a rookie, 7 for an SG.
As you see, he tends to be late in rotations and doesn't really communicate all that well but the natural God-given talent is just ample. What he can do with just God-given talent is not normal. He still got a lot of learning to do as well. His length helps him so much as well as his motor, speed, and feel for the attacker. The defender I've compared him to is Kobe Bryant. It's been a while that I've seen anyone like Kobe on that end. Lewis might be the first. Like a raw Kobe Bryant, his on-ball defense is just much better than his team defense at this stage.
Offensively, he's extremely raw. doordoor123 talked about guys like Lewis before:
- Passing and Shooting: I put these two in the same category because unless you’re Giannis Antetokounmpo or Ben Simmons no one can be good in the NBA without shooting and passing. No one even gets minutes without both shooting and passing unless you have an elite defender on your hands like Cory Brewer or Andre Roberson. Shooting and passing is important because of space and the quality defenders there are in the NBA. Shooting creates space in the middle and passing creates space all over the floor. In analytics turnovers are a big statistic in basketball and putting a bad passer on the floor creates a possibility to lose possession or multiple possessions and give up points, which could lose a game for your team.
Putting a bad shooter on the floor does something similar. Overall most teams would rather have shooters on their team. Even sharpshooters like Kyle Korver are good passers. And while it doesn’t seem like it all the time since they’re always jacking up shots, the ability to pass is present. Look at shooting stroke, ability to shoot over guys with length or athleticism, shot percentage/usage, ability to shoot on the move, ability to pass into the post, run the P&R, make correct passes, etc. Turnover to assists ratio also matters.
I strongly feel scoring, shot selection, passing, shooting, dribbling, and attacking will all be massive hurdles for him as a prospect. I felt thestepien did a really good job on him. https://www.thestepien.com/2020/02/12/scottie-lewis-scouting-report/
But I even less high day 1 than them. His scoring is bad and adds his shot selection, it's going to be hard to really play the role he needs to play in the NBA, G-League or period. He's going to be a #1 or #2 option but his floor is exceptionally low, so much so that he needs to be a non-option outside of open threes and straight-line drives but with his shot selection and shot IQ, it's going to be impossible for a coach to put him on the floor in year 1.
What I do like is his potential if developed in time. He reminds me a lot of Terance Davis from Ole Miss last year offensively. Just a super raw version. Now Lewis has a lot more talent. Davis is a decent talent and turned himself into a good player as a prospect. Now he didn't get drafted because he didn't fit what most teams needed outside of from the #11 or #12 man and even if he did, they wanted a two-way deal. Basically, he wasn't seen as the high-end top of the rotation and for obvious reason. He's not a PDS player, he's a straight-line driver who can score, and has turned his shot in a respectable one but teams want you to fit a role as an SG. Also, teams want those players to have playmaking skills. Since he's been with the Raptors, he's greatly improved his spot-up shooting and he's really good at straight-line drives. In time, I can see Lewis doing this in the right situation.
Lewis has a ton to like. He's a Basketball athlete. That helps and matters unike Davis. He moves like an unskilled Kobe Bryant but his skill level is Kent Bazemore senior year (ODU) with less playmaking potential than Bazemore. He's just exceptionally raw. Was he a Power Forward in HS? Jason Rich vibes in terms of lack of skill with such freak athleticism. As someone who seen Kent Bazemore develop, he had a point where he just topped out skill-wise, like this is as good as I can get. His handles cleaned up. His off the ball offense never really changed much. He was always a tremendous cutter and transition player but never a natural movement player. He didn't have the advanced moves at all and never developed them. He did have a good first step but nothing like Lewis.
He just peaked at a good player status but really didn't have a true position. He was an SF ability wise but really couldn't defend them consistently as he was just too small for bigger wings. He was never a natural shooter although he became a good spot-up guy and I see Lewis having that and some. Bazemore was clearly a willing passer but not a decent one ever. He just had too many positional flaws. I see a lot of those flaws in Lewis.
I see why Lewis is liked nonetheless. The talent, the athleticism, God-given ability, the motor, and the smooth-shooting release. But he has way too far to go for me.
2nd Rounder to Undrafted. I liked Miye Oni better from last year but he's in the same tier as guys from last year like Fletcher Magee, Justin James, John Konchar, Dewan Hernandez, Cody Martin, Luguentz Dort, and Mike Daum.
Higher End Comparisons - Terence Davis and Kent Bazemore
Outlier - No comparison. He would be the first of his kind, like Haliburton was last year and this year, an one of a kind. Haliburton did extremely well to return to school. He really changed my expectations for him. Lewis should do the same to a lesser extent. This is how I rated Haliburton last year before he pulled out: 45. Haliburton - 2020 prospect but low floor/mid ceiling. Can boost his ceiling in 2020. Has the ability.
I rated Haliburton higher last year than what Lewis is this year. I feel Lewis has the same ability to do so. It's hard to say how good he can be if he overachieves. He is very talented but patience is key. For me, he's two years from being two years away. The wrong system can pretty much send him to lower-end Europe. The right system can really accelerate his growth if he puts in the work and has the right vets around him. I would prefer to see him in a system where it's a natural ball movement system with other great ball handlers where he could be like Dorian Finney-Smith or Torrey Craig in year 3.
Max weight - 205-210