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Can someone explain to me why so many have Okongwu as a top five prospect and Precious outside the lottery? The USC big man is younger and roughly 10lbs heavier but Achiuwa is arguably faster, better ball handler, better in space and pretty close defending and rebounding inside. If Precious embraces being a PF/C the way Okongwu has and doesn't try to become a big SF I think they're pretty comparable. I'm not saying that the Memphis OAD is better just that he's maybe a little undervalued in comparison to other PFs in this class.
I'm hoping others have done their own analysis and can shed some light on this for me because either I'm missing something or the perspective value on these 2 is a lot closer than most would suppose.

i think you're off in much of your analysis there, Onyeka's ball skills are much, much better, better hands, better handle, better passer, better inside game, but multi level defender

i like Precious but he still doesn't know what he's doing half the time

Precious has very good defensive ability, but he's going to be a bit undersized if he has to play center, and his lack of offensive ability might force that. Okongwu can be an elite rim protector, and he doesn't turn the ball over as much as Precious. The fact that Precious decided to go to the same school as Wiseman seems like an indication that he doesn't want to play center.

Precious is def not undersized, 6-9, 7-2 wingspan, 9'1 SR and he could easily get to 260 if he worked towards that

If I can sum up in one stat, look at Synergy post-up:

Onyeka 1.127 PPP - 102 poss (94%-ile)
Precious 0.696 PPP - 46 poss (29%-ile)

In my experience looking at these stats, it's a pretty bad offensive signal if a big isn't an efficient post-up scorer in the NCAA. Doesn't mean being good at post-ups necessarily makes you a good NBA player, but being very bad at post-ups at college level probably means you'll be pretty limited in the NBA. Kind of like point guards with low steal rates.

Precious is not a C anyways, for like the 1000th time

EvanZ wrote:If I can sum up in one stat, look at Synergy post-up:

Onyeka 1.127 PPP - 102 poss (94%-ile)
Precious 0.696 PPP - 46 poss (29%-ile)

In my experience looking at these stats, it's a pretty bad offensive signal if a big isn't an efficient post-up scorer in the NCAA. Doesn't mean being good at post-ups necessarily makes you a good NBA player, but being very bad at post-ups at college level probably means you'll be pretty limited in the NBA. Kind of like point guards with low steal rates.

I guess its more of a "when you need it, its good to know its there" type of thing but I just dont see big men posting up as much as they used to and anytime my eye test tells me somebody is a great post up threat somebody shares with me that from an analytical standpoint it hurts the team. So idk if this matters anymore as much as you believe.

Nazrmohamed wrote:

EvanZ wrote:If I can sum up in one stat, look at Synergy post-up:

Onyeka 1.127 PPP - 102 poss (94%-ile)
Precious 0.696 PPP - 46 poss (29%-ile)

In my experience looking at these stats, it's a pretty bad offensive signal if a big isn't an efficient post-up scorer in the NCAA. Doesn't mean being good at post-ups necessarily makes you a good NBA player, but being very bad at post-ups at college level probably means you'll be pretty limited in the NBA. Kind of like point guards with low steal rates.

I guess its more of a "when you need it, its good to know its there" type of thing but I just dont see big men posting up as much as they used to and anytime my eye test tells me somebody is a great post up threat somebody shares with me that from an analytical standpoint it hurts the team. So idk if this matters anymore as much as you believe.

Yeah, you missed the point. It's not about actually needing to use post-ups in the NBA, it's a general offensive signal. It's a sign of things like having bad touch, footwork, etc. For example, if you go back and look at Jaren Jackson, he actually had a really good post-up signal. He is not a post-up player in the NBA, but he has touch, etc.

Honestly, I don't think anyone taking Achiuwa wants to use him that way unless it's a mismatch situation, and even then, it's doubtful.

He's still 20 and has time to grow, but Okongwu is further along at a younger age which bodes well for him.

If I'm taking Achiuwa, I'm primarily using him as a roll man or just parking him in the corner and hoping he hits a 3. His real upside is on the other end, though.

He needs to add a little weight and get stronger, but that shouldn't be an issue for the big fella.

My point was that they are incredibly similar athletically and size/strength wise. I would take Onyeka over Precious but it seems closer than most believe. Onyeka obviously has some more refined interior skills, but Precious is better in space and facing up. Age and hands are the biggest differences in Onyeka's favor but Precious has the ability to blow by sililar sized players in the perimeter and both initiate and finish the break. Just wanted to open up the discussion cause I find it so interesting.

Goldbum wrote:My point was that they are incredibly similar athletically and size/strength wise. I would take Onyeka over Precious but it seems closer than most believe. Onyeka obviously has some more refined interior skills, but Precious is better in space and facing up. Age and hands are the biggest differences in Onyeka's favor but Precious has the ability to blow by sililar sized players in the perimeter and both initiate and finish the break. Just wanted to open up the discussion cause I find it so interesting.

In my opinion, Achiuwa does have a wide range just because of his athletic ability. I think he could go as early as lottery or as late as early 2nd.

Goldbum wrote:Can someone explain to me why so many have Okongwu as a top five prospect and Precious outside the lottery? The USC big man is younger and roughly 10lbs heavier but Achiuwa is arguably faster, better ball handler, better in space and pretty close defending and rebounding inside. If Precious embraces being a PF/C the way Okongwu has and doesn't try to become a big SF I think they're pretty comparable. I'm not saying that the Memphis OAD is better just that he's maybe a little undervalued in comparison to other PFs in this class.
I'm hoping others have done their own analysis and can shed some light on this for me because either I'm missing something or the perspective value on these 2 is a lot closer than most would suppose.

Achiuwa's poor play making and shooting has brought his stock down a lot. There are a lot of advance stats, but you can just look at FG% and turnovers and compare that to Kong.

I feel the same way about Jalen Smith. I think he is a clear top 5 talent, but he is only projected as late lottery or mid 1st round, but when you look at his stats and watch his film, he looks like Anthony Davis or KG.

atlantabbq99 wrote:

Goldbum wrote:Can someone explain to me why so many have Okongwu as a top five prospect and Precious outside the lottery? The USC big man is younger and roughly 10lbs heavier but Achiuwa is arguably faster, better ball handler, better in space and pretty close defending and rebounding inside. If Precious embraces being a PF/C the way Okongwu has and doesn't try to become a big SF I think they're pretty comparable. I'm not saying that the Memphis OAD is better just that he's maybe a little undervalued in comparison to other PFs in this class.
I'm hoping others have done their own analysis and can shed some light on this for me because either I'm missing something or the perspective value on these 2 is a lot closer than most would suppose.

Achiuwa's poor play making and shooting has brought his stock down a lot. There are a lot of advance stats, but you can just look at FG% and turnovers and compare that to Kong.

I feel the same way about Jalen Smith. I think he is a clear top 5 talent, but he is only projected as late lottery or mid 1st round, but when you look at his stats and watch his film, he looks like Anthony Davis or KG.

Jalen Smith stats are almost identical to Jaren Jackson Jr, lower blocks but also lower foul rate. Stretchy big. Even similar TS Reb even to Karl Towns Lesser block rates, not quite as clear perfect like AD, higher Reb Block Foul TO TS etc...

Goldbum wrote:Can someone explain to me why so many have Okongwu as a top five prospect and Precious outside the lottery? The USC big man is younger and roughly 10lbs heavier but Achiuwa is arguably faster, better ball handler, better in space and pretty close defending and rebounding inside. If Precious embraces being a PF/C the way Okongwu has and doesn't try to become a big SF I think they're pretty comparable. I'm not saying that the Memphis OAD is better just that he's maybe a little undervalued in comparison to other PFs in this class.
I'm hoping others have done their own analysis and can shed some light on this for me because either I'm missing something or the perspective value on these 2 is a lot closer than most would suppose.

1 thing for sure: skill

I can see having them close in terms of upside, since Achiuwa is still learning to play as a roll man on offense and has the kind of game that will most benefit from an increase in shooting ability. But Okongwu is probably more of a surefire starting-caliber player with his polish.

Achiuwa is Tyrus... 4.0. Springy athlete (Tyrus > Precious), who has literally no real BBIQ, but unlike Tyrus, Precious is going to be 21 years old in 69 days. There are only a handful or so of nba teams who could develop this guy, namely, Boston, Miami, Warriors, Bucks, Toronto, Spurs, I might be missing some, but why any nba franchise is drafting a soon 21 year old who has no Offensuve skill currently that could even be seen on a man court till year #3, seems wild... meanwhile Okongwu floor is Derrick Favors. Why any nba team would choose Precious over Okongwu is indefensible. That’s some “we gotta take Anthony Bennett #1” typeWUT logic. Precious is the guy the regarded nba franchises take constantly and you ask yourself, how is X, still picking here in 20xx after x,y,z, picks the past 3.

With such a massive whole at the PF position, man would it be nice to have Achiuwa on the squad right now. He's filling the EXACT role right out of the gate for the Heat that we so desperately need.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nba/miami-heat/article248108410.html

It would be nice to find out where PA was on Rosas' board. Was he lower on the board because he wasn't a great shooter in college? Because people thought he would only aspire to be a scoring 3? Because there was and is no debate about his tenacity, physical presence, defense and rebounding. All huge areas of need on the wolves, even when the entire squad is healthy. Could have had him at 17 right? Right. But we went after Rubio, which I get. BUT, we MIGHT have been able to nab PA AND Rubio with a little creativity. How? After our top pick, we had 17 and 33. We traded:
-17 & James Johnson for Rubio, 25, and 28.
-25 & 33 for 23.
-Balmaro @ 23 (just ugh), and McDaniels @ 28 is what we ended up with

PA got picked at 20. So we're sitting here during the draft and it's moments after the trade for Rubio, we're sitting with picks 25, 28, and 33. Targeting the mavs pick @18 could have been a reasonable move. Why? The mavs took Josh Green at 18, Tyrell Terry @31, and Tyler Bey @ 36. To me that says they were looking for defense on the wing (Green, Bey) and possibly a Seth Curry lite replacement in Terry. They weren't in on Achiuwa it appears. If we offered 25 & 28 for 18 do the mavs bite? Maybe. Throw in 33? Very possibly. No, the mavs wouldn't have used ALL of the picks in that scenario, they would have wheeled and dealed to package back up to still get Green, Terry, and Bey, but could have used that draft capital to get even more and/or better players, possibly a Euro stash. Would Green have been there at 23? Maybe, maybe not. I tend to think he would have been, but if the mavs thought he wouldn't last that long, they could have moved up a couple spots with that draft capital to ensure getting him. Maybe a back-up plan was Desmond Bane @23 (who by the way looks like a better player than Green).

The point is, with the massive hole at PF, and the squad lacking in toughness, tenacity, physicality, defense, rebounding, not coming away from the draft with an OBVIOUS option in Precious Achiuwa is looking REALLY bad, and I say shame on Rosas. There were about 5-6 players in the draft who, even though they were 1 and done, had the big-boy strength and size at their position that screamed "early contributor". Off the top of my head - Edwards, Wiseman, P Williams, Okoro, Okongwu, Toppin (not a 1 and done, I know), Green, Achiuwa. Concerned about PA not fitting the Towns time-line? I call BS for the reason mentioned - physically ready. If I could, I'd love to sit down with Rosas and learn of his opinion on Achiuwa, what it was coming up to the draft, why he wasn't a target (even at 17), why certain "player types" don't even appear to be on his radar (see RHJ), etc.

Anyways, sorry for the long rant, just thinking we missed big-time on a player that would be perfect on the squad right about now.

wolfen wrote:With such a massive whole at the PF position, man would it be nice to have Achiuwa on the squad right now. He's filling the EXACT role right out of the gate for the Heat that we so desperately need.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nba/miami-heat/article248108410.html

It would be nice to find out where PA was on Rosas' board. Was he lower on the board because he wasn't a great shooter in college? Because people thought he would only aspire to be a scoring 3? Because there was and is no debate about his tenacity, physical presence, defense and rebounding. All huge areas of need on the wolves, even when the entire squad is healthy. Could have had him at 17 right? Right. But we went after Rubio, which I get. BUT, we MIGHT have been able to nab PA AND Rubio with a little creativity. How? After our top pick, we had 17 and 33. We traded:
-17 & James Johnson for Rubio, 25, and 28.
-25 & 33 for 23.
-Balmaro @ 23 (just ugh), and McDaniels @ 28 is what we ended up with

PA got picked at 20. So we're sitting here during the draft and it's moments after the trade for Rubio, we're sitting with picks 25, 28, and 33. Targeting the mavs pick @18 could have been a reasonable move. Why? The mavs took Josh Green at 18, Tyrell Terry @31, and Tyler Bey @ 36. To me that says they were looking for defense on the wing (Green, Bey) and possibly a Seth Curry lite replacement in Terry. They weren't in on Achiuwa it appears. If we offered 25 & 28 for 18 do the mavs bite? Maybe. Throw in 33? Very possibly. No, the mavs wouldn't have used ALL of the picks in that scenario, they would have wheeled and dealed to package back up to still get Green, Terry, and Bey, but could have used that draft capital to get even more and/or better players, possibly a Euro stash. Would Green have been there at 23? Maybe, maybe not. I tend to think he would have been, but if the mavs thought he wouldn't last that long, they could have moved up a couple spots with that draft capital to ensure getting him. Maybe a back-up plan was Desmond Bane @23 (who by the way looks like a better player than Green).

The point is, with the massive hole at PF, and the squad lacking in toughness, tenacity, physicality, defense, rebounding, not coming away from the draft with an OBVIOUS option in Precious Achiuwa is looking REALLY bad, and I say shame on Rosas. There were about 5-6 players in the draft who, even though they were 1 and done, had the big-boy strength and size at their position that screamed "early contributor". Off the top of my head - Edwards, Wiseman, P Williams, Okoro, Okongwu, Toppin (not a 1 and done, I know), Green, Achiuwa. Concerned about PA not fitting the Towns time-line? I call BS for the reason mentioned - physically ready. If I could, I'd love to sit down with Rosas and learn of his opinion on Achiuwa, what it was coming up to the draft, why he wasn't a target (even at 17), why certain "player types" don't even appear to be on his radar (see RHJ), etc.

Anyways, sorry for the long rant, just thinking we missed big-time on a player that would be perfect on the squad right about now.

I think Precious is playing more like a Center than a PF. He is replacing Bam and playing inside the paint. He is not stretching the floor. I dont know if he would be a very good addition to Towns...