How set is the top 10?

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How set is the top 10? 

Post#1 » by jezzerinho » Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:11 pm

Despite there having been no traditional pre-draft process until now and a foreshortened season on which to base evaluations, it seems that there's quite a crystallization of players in the top 10, based on mocks out there.

Naturally, there's always an element of groupthink that limits the braver mock drafters.

But it seems that, at this point at least, there are a lot of consensus top 10 players.

Would it be fair to say that these guys are - in the eyes of the industry if not you personally - sure top 10 picks?

Guards: Ball, Edwards, Halliburton, Hayes
Wings: Okoro, Avdija
PF: Toppin
C: Wiseman, Okongwu

That's 9 out of the top 10.

Who might slip and who might be missing?

What does it say for those teams with picks just outside? There's a ton of prospects of similar potential in what is maybe quite a flat draft talent-wise. Might they hold the keys to all draft day movement?
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#2 » by Richard4444 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:48 pm

This top 9 is solid according with this mock aggregate. https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-mock-draft-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball-projections/

However there are few wings in this Top 9. Its a position with high demand for players. Vassel, Nesmith and PatWill can surprise everybody.

And the hierarchy among PG is not set in stone. Cole and Kira can rise.
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#3 » by EvanZ » Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:28 pm

Vassell could easily be top 10. Who knows maybe Cole will sneak in too.
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#4 » by Catchall » Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:31 pm

jezzerinho wrote:Despite there having been no traditional pre-draft process until now and a foreshortened season on which to base evaluations, it seems that there's quite a crystallization of players in the top 10, based on mocks out there.

Naturally, there's always an element of groupthink that limits the braver mock drafters.

But it seems that, at this point at least, there are a lot of consensus top 10 players.

Would it be fair to say that these guys are - in the eyes of the industry if not you personally - sure top 10 picks?

Guards: Ball, Edwards, Halliburton, Hayes
Wings: Okoro, Avdija
PF: Toppin
C: Wiseman, Okongwu

That's 9 out of the top 10.

Who might slip and who might be missing?

What does it say for those teams with picks just outside? There's a ton of prospects of similar potential in what is maybe quite a flat draft talent-wise. Might they hold the keys to all draft day movement?


Devin Vassell or Cole Anthony would be the most likely to round out the top 10. Patrick Williams or Aleksej Pokusevski could sneak in based on workouts and who is drafting, imo.
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#5 » by jezzerinho » Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:57 pm

Making the big assumption this won't change, it means that only one of Vassell, Achiuwa, Williams, Bey, Anthony, Maxey, Lewis, Hampton, Maledon, Green, Bolmaro, Poku will go to round out the top 10 and the rest are available to those picks immediately below. Might give those GMs a lot of power to trade...
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#6 » by getrichordie » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:22 am

I don't think top 10 is set at all, IMO.

I think you could make a case that top 5 is set: Ball, Edwards, Avdija, Wiseman, Hayes

Edit: Here come the Okongwu and Toppin stans!
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#7 » by Knightro » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:56 am

I don't think the order is anywhere close to set, but I'm pretty confident that Wiseman, Edwards, Ball, Haliburton, Avdija will all go *somewhere* in the top 10.
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#8 » by clyde21 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:10 am

don't think it's set at all after Melo, Edwards, Wiseman and maybe Avdija
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#9 » by Stillwater » Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:22 am

getrichordie wrote:I don't think top 10 is set at all, IMO.

I think you could make a case that top 5 is set: Ball, Edwards, Avdija, Wiseman, Hayes

Edit: Here come the Okongwu and Toppin stans!

Idk about Obi in the top 10 but id be pretty surprised if any org has Avdija ranked different than others like Vassell or Okoro with Okongwu ranked ahead of Hayes and Ball who are both offense only prospects and several could have Haliburton or even Lewis ranked higher.
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#10 » by jezzerinho » Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:15 am

Interesting.

So, out of the top 10, how many players are a lock to be in there? I'd have said certainly 7, but it seems some believe there's less certainty than that...
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#11 » by Knightro » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:52 pm

jezzerinho wrote:Interesting.

So, out of the top 10, how many players are a lock to be in there? I'd have said certainly 7, but it seems some believe there's less certainty than that...


To me, it's a minimum of 5 and a maximum of 9.

It's probably realistically 7, but I'd only be comfortable committing to 5 at the moment.
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#12 » by Stillwater » Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:53 pm

Knightro wrote:
jezzerinho wrote:Interesting.

So, out of the top 10, how many players are a lock to be in there? I'd have said certainly 7, but it seems some believe there's less certainty than that...


To me, it's a minimum of 5 and a maximum of 9.

It's probably realistically 7, but I'd only be comfortable committing to 5 at the moment.

lol yeah it's really not close enough to the actual finish line of the pre draft process for anyone to be locked in other than high floor prospects like Okongwu and Vassell who moved themselves into the lottery from pre season lower expectations. Others that were projected in that range early on like the Balls and the Edwards have remained in play because they did fairly well to back up some of the chatter and others like Anthony and Avdija may not have completely fallen out because the opinion on this class is very forgiving from a fan scout perspective due to those hopeful for it to be at least capable of producing a few all stars despite having unlikley any 1st team NBA types.
I think McDaniels as an example who had a lot of hype coming in but failed to back it up for example could have put up lottery level numbers sort of the same way LaMelo did had he been given the same usage in the same situation so I think Ball is overrated by most even if he does have an elite handle for his size and an uncanny feel for the game that allows him quick processing ability as a floor general. But because you can definitely see McDaniels was and is not who scouts hoped he would be\ I think the lack of defense and shooting from Ball could have made him far less appealing had he played for Washington. The point is many scouts may be lower on Ball than the average person thinks.
I am surprised how many are so high on Avdija for example who is night or day and not reliable and so I attribute it to lack of other 3-4 options increasing his value unjustifiably.
imo somebody like Ramsey with only the need to improve his decision making to become a very solid pro or somebody like Oturu with ridiculous yr 1 to 2 improvement mentally could crack the top 10 easily, Hell even some obscure to the mainstream high motor wing like Hinton or some tiny framed highly skilled guard like Terry who can pull up from the LOGO could crack the lottery for teams with their radars on high.

This draft is loaded with flawed players with exceptional skills in other areas and its a total crapshoot determining where they will fall.
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#13 » by karkinos » Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:48 pm

if there's a surprise move into the top 10, i could see someone taking a big swing on grant riller.
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#14 » by Stillwater » Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:11 am

karkinos wrote:if there's a surprise move into the top 10, i could see someone taking a big swing on grant riller.

anything is possible I guess Cam Johnson was about the same age at the time of the draft at 23 but he had his dominance the year before getting drafted in the ACC not CAA and there are alot of guards in this draft with lottery potential that are not 23.
Should be intersting I think if he was more of a playmaker for others he would be able to get late lottery looks. Right now its contenders that might look at him as an asset late first imo
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#15 » by nolang1 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:50 pm

I guess there’s inherently some uncertainty due to coronavirus, but if you look at the equivalent time in past years (after NCAA season but before combine and individual workouts) usually at least 7-8 of the top 10 is set.

There’s already a trend where the top prospects aren’t working out against anyone or participating in the combine, and I’d suspect that would continue given the logistical issues of traveling all over the country to do workouts for a bunch of lottery teams. Teams have had more time to watch game film and do background research, so if mock drafts are from talking to scouts and executives and have been converging on a group of players, I’d be inclined to believe that’s who’s likely to be taken in the top 10.

Now I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more movement within that top 8 or so than usual since there isn’t an obvious star and lots of the top prospects don’t have much game experience, but someone coming from out of nowhere into the top 10 isn’t extremely common in the first place.
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#16 » by jezzerinho » Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:19 pm

Given how flat this draft appears, the teams with picks around 8-12 will have a lot of similarly talented players to choose from. Might be a lot of value in one of those picks, esp 8-10.
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#17 » by Stillwater » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:33 pm

nolang1 wrote:I guess there’s inherently some uncertainty due to coronavirus, but if you look at the equivalent time in past years (after NCAA season but before combine and individual workouts) usually at least 7-8 of the top 10 is set.

There’s already a trend where the top prospects aren’t working out against anyone or participating in the combine, and I’d suspect that would continue given the logistical issues of traveling all over the country to do workouts for a bunch of lottery teams. Teams have had more time to watch game film and do background research, so if mock drafts are from talking to scouts and executives and have been converging on a group of players, I’d be inclined to believe that’s who’s likely to be taken in the top 10.

Now I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more movement within that top 8 or so than usual since there isn’t an obvious star and lots of the top prospects don’t have much game experience, but someone coming from out of nowhere into the top 10 isn’t extremely common in the first place.

right but often there are at minimum 2 sometimes 3 tournament kings that get a lot of media attn in the last days after the big dance esp ones that were held low and then skyrocket into the mix early esp if they prove themself to be a higher floor and same upside as somebody ranked high all year.
example Butler & or Lewis would definitely get lottery mocked in most media mock drafts after a tournament imo whereas Pat WIlliams and Okoro move back to reality where WIlliams is in the 15 or after club and Okoro is never higher than 6 but Vassell gets pushed into the top 3.
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#18 » by EvanZ » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:47 pm

jezzerinho wrote:Given how flat this draft appears, the teams with picks around 8-12 will have a lot of similarly talented players to choose from. Might be a lot of value in one of those picks, esp 8-10.


Almost certainly one of the following will be available at 15:

  • Kira Lewis
  • Poku
  • PatWill
  • Riller

Those are all Lottery caliber picks and if you can get one at 15 that's great.
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#19 » by nolang1 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:34 pm

Stillwater wrote:
nolang1 wrote:I guess there’s inherently some uncertainty due to coronavirus, but if you look at the equivalent time in past years (after NCAA season but before combine and individual workouts) usually at least 7-8 of the top 10 is set.

There’s already a trend where the top prospects aren’t working out against anyone or participating in the combine, and I’d suspect that would continue given the logistical issues of traveling all over the country to do workouts for a bunch of lottery teams. Teams have had more time to watch game film and do background research, so if mock drafts are from talking to scouts and executives and have been converging on a group of players, I’d be inclined to believe that’s who’s likely to be taken in the top 10.

Now I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more movement within that top 8 or so than usual since there isn’t an obvious star and lots of the top prospects don’t have much game experience, but someone coming from out of nowhere into the top 10 isn’t extremely common in the first place.

right but often there are at minimum 2 sometimes 3 tournament kings that get a lot of media attn in the last days after the big dance esp ones that were held low and then skyrocket into the mix early esp if they prove themself to be a higher floor and same upside as somebody ranked high all year.
example Butler & or Lewis would definitely get lottery mocked in most media mock drafts after a tournament imo whereas Pat WIlliams and Okoro move back to reality where WIlliams is in the 15 or after club and Okoro is never higher than 6 but Vassell gets pushed into the top 3.


You must have skimmed over the part where I said the NCAA season is finished aka there are no more games to evaluate. It’s in the first sentence. Like I said, you don’t see too many people shooting up into the top 10 based on workouts and the ones who do were probably in that 10-20 range. Giannis is probably the biggest example of a guy coming out of nowhere relatively late in the process, and he went 15th.

This has more to do with who teams are going to pick than who’s going to be the best player eventually, and for lots of teams at the top of the draft the combine/workout stuff is more or less a formality where they’re either locked in on their guy or saying “we’ll just take whoever’s left out of X, Y, and Z.” If you gave me Ball, Edwards, Hayes, Wiseman, Haliburton, Avdija, Okongwu, Toppin, Vassell, and Okoro as a putative top 10, I wouldn’t expect more than 2 of those players to be on the board at pick #11.

It might seem more static because nothing has happened over the last 3-4 months and there aren’t teams/agents putting out smokescreens about who has a promise or who allegedly killed it in a workout, but most years you could do a similar exercise after the college season and get most of the top 10. Hell, most drafts you can probably get 5-6 of the top 10 picks a year out. I think the extent to which an NCAA tournament performance really vaults someone (especially an upperclassman) into the lottery is more a thing of the past given how widespread analytics are.

Last year the NBA’s first round of green room invitations went to 9 players (this was 3-4 weeks before the draft), and Hachimura being drafted directly in front of Reddish was the only thing that kept those players from being the first 9 picks. So yes, I think you can generally trust the consensus and we remember the surprising picks specifically because they’re so rare.
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Re: How set is the top 10? 

Post#20 » by Stillwater » Tue Jul 28, 2020 11:47 pm

nolang1 wrote:
Stillwater wrote:
nolang1 wrote:I guess there’s inherently some uncertainty due to coronavirus, but if you look at the equivalent time in past years (after NCAA season but before combine and individual workouts) usually at least 7-8 of the top 10 is set.

There’s already a trend where the top prospects aren’t working out against anyone or participating in the combine, and I’d suspect that would continue given the logistical issues of traveling all over the country to do workouts for a bunch of lottery teams. Teams have had more time to watch game film and do background research, so if mock drafts are from talking to scouts and executives and have been converging on a group of players, I’d be inclined to believe that’s who’s likely to be taken in the top 10.

Now I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more movement within that top 8 or so than usual since there isn’t an obvious star and lots of the top prospects don’t have much game experience, but someone coming from out of nowhere into the top 10 isn’t extremely common in the first place.

right but often there are at minimum 2 sometimes 3 tournament kings that get a lot of media attn in the last days after the big dance esp ones that were held low and then skyrocket into the mix early esp if they prove themself to be a higher floor and same upside as somebody ranked high all year.
example Butler & or Lewis would definitely get lottery mocked in most media mock drafts after a tournament imo whereas Pat WIlliams and Okoro move back to reality where WIlliams is in the 15 or after club and Okoro is never higher than 6 but Vassell gets pushed into the top 3.


You must have skimmed over the part where I said the NCAA season is finished aka there are no more games to evaluate. It’s in the first sentence. Like I said, you don’t see too many people shooting up into the top 10 based on workouts and the ones who do were probably in that 10-20 range. Giannis is probably the biggest example of a guy coming out of nowhere relatively late in the process, and he went 15th.

This has more to do with who teams are going to pick than who’s going to be the best player eventually, and for lots of teams at the top of the draft the combine/workout stuff is more or less a formality where they’re either locked in on their guy or saying “we’ll just take whoever’s left out of X, Y, and Z.” If you gave me Ball, Edwards, Hayes, Wiseman, Haliburton, Avdija, Okongwu, Toppin, Vassell, and Okoro as a putative top 10, I wouldn’t expect more than 2 of those players to be on the board at pick #11.

It might seem more static because nothing has happened over the last 3-4 months and there aren’t teams/agents putting out smokescreens about who has a promise or who allegedly killed it in a workout, but most years you could do a similar exercise after the college season and get most of the top 10. Hell, most drafts you can probably get 5-6 of the top 10 picks a year out. I think the extent to which an NCAA tournament performance really vaults someone (especially an upperclassman) into the lottery is more a thing of the past given how widespread analytics are.

Last year the NBA’s first round of green room invitations went to 9 players (this was 3-4 weeks before the draft), and Hachimura being drafted directly in front of Reddish was the only thing that kept those players from being the first 9 picks. So yes, I think you can generally trust the consensus and we remember the surprising picks specifically because they’re so rare.


well either way there will be less mock changes than typical post tournament buzz influenced drafts even if the actual draft is different than the mocks now show which it should be. I think there is a good chance Ball for example drops some
or Cole Anthony goes before him even though nobody thinks that on any mocks I see. I think the only team in the league that would take Ball at #1 is NY.
I think there are plenty of sleepers that are not mocked at all in the first by most that are 1st round locks and despite everyone of those prospects you mentioned having a solid shot at the 1-10, two or 3 of them could drop quickly after the combine or a private workout by the simple fact that someone leapfrogs them esp given none of them are really tier 1 prospects with very few flaws. all have some major hole in their game .
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where the painted dream of the wayward soul is false reality bliss-
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