Franz Wagner, Michigan

Charm · Post #101 » by **Charm** » Sat Jul 10, 2021 3:06 pm

How often do you see a 19-year-old wing who's the clear best player on a top-5 NCAA team in the country? Wild that the concerns about his scoring have spiraled to the point that he's falling out of the top-10 in some mocks. He's got the physical tools and feel for the game to be a great NBA player, and it's not like he's got rocks for hands. Seems like a great combination of floor and ceiling to me.

RookieStar · Post #102 » by **RookieStar** » Sat Jul 10, 2021 8:00 pm

Wizop wrote:
RookieStar wrote:Since this guys has been MIA with the draft 3weeks away and since he is not part of the 5man draft to just dodge everything... he probably has a lotto promise already.
Hasn't he been playing on the German National team?

Sent from my phone.

thats Mo Wagner playing in the OQT

Wizop · Post #103 » by **Wizop** » Sat Jul 10, 2021 8:30 pm

RookieStar wrote:
Wizop wrote:
RookieStar wrote:Since this guys has been MIA with the draft 3weeks away and since he is not part of the 5man draft to just dodge everything... he probably has a lotto promise already.
Hasn't he been playing on the German National team?

Sent from my phone.

thats Mo Wagner playing in the OQT

I thought they both were. Guess not.

Sent from my phone.

RookieStar · Post #104 » by **RookieStar** » Sat Jul 10, 2021 8:32 pm

Wizop wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
Wizop wrote:Hasn't he been playing on the German National team?

Sent from my phone.

thats Mo Wagner playing in the OQT
I thought they both were. Guess not.

Sent from my phone.

well... he is supposedly gonna work out for the Pelicans along with Springer so don't think he can take part in the Olympics

Big J · Post #105 » by **Big J** » Sat Jul 10, 2021 10:41 pm

Really hoping the Dubs draft Franz. He seems like he'd be perfect there.

Big J · Post #106 » by **Big J** » Thu Jul 15, 2021 4:43 pm

Is there any chance he’s gone before 7?

Hal14 · Post #107 » by **Hal14** » Thu Jul 15, 2021 5:08 pm

Big J wrote:Is there any chance he’s gone before 7?

I highly doubt it

Hal14 · Post #108 » by **Hal14** » Thu Jul 15, 2021 5:13 pm

Charm wrote:How often do you see a 19-year-old wing who's the clear best player on a top-5 NCAA team in the country? Wild that the concerns about his scoring have spiraled to the point that he's falling out of the top-10 in some mocks. He's got the physical tools and feel for the game to be a great NBA player, and it's not like he's got rocks for hands. Seems like a great combination of floor and ceiling to me.

Agreed I was down on him until I saw:

a) His offensive rating last year was insanely higher than his defensive rating. I'm not sure, but the difference between his o-rating and d-rating may have been biggest in the country last year. It's just bonkers. Strong BPM too which tells you this guy isn't just some athletic freak or some flashy guy who doesn't help a team win (I may or may not be referring to guys like Keon, Jalen, Kuminga, etc.)..hell, even Barnes only played like 20 mins a game last year.

Wagner really impacts the game and his team in a positive way, consistently...while playing in the big 10 for a top 5 team in the country as a 19 yr old

b) shooting % from 3 is a little concerning and his form is a little funky but the crazy high FT% (and young age) gives hope for improvement there

He's no. 7 on my big board right now

Post #109 » by **Yuri Vaultin** » Thu Jul 15, 2021 5:16 pm

Big J wrote:Is there any chance he’s gone before 7?

zero chance.

Charm · Post #110 » by **Charm** » Thu Jul 15, 2021 5:31 pm

Hal14 wrote:
Charm wrote:How often do you see a 19-year-old wing who's the clear best player on a top-5 NCAA team in the country? Wild that the concerns about his scoring have spiraled to the point that he's falling out of the top-10 in some mocks. He's got the physical tools and feel for the game to be a great NBA player, and it's not like he's got rocks for hands. Seems like a great combination of floor and ceiling to me.

Agreed I was down on him until I saw:

a) His offensive rating last year was insanely higher than his defensive rating. I'm not sure, but the difference between his o-rating and d-rating may have been biggest in the country last year. It's just bonkers. Strong BPM too which tells you this guy isn't just some athletic freak or some flashy guy who doesn't help a team win (I may or may not be referring to guys like Keon, Jalen, Kuminga, etc.)..hell, even Barnes only played like 20 mins a game last year.

Wagner really impacts the game and his team in a positive way, consistently...while playing in the big 10 for a top 5 team in the country as a 19 yr old

b) shooting % from 3 is a little concerning and his form is a little funky but the crazy high FT% (and young age) gives hope for improvement there

He's no. 7 on my big board right now

His season ended on a dud vs. UCLA, but he was phenomenal vs. Florida State and Barnes in the previous game. Barnes is obviously one of the most athletic wings in the NCAA, and Franz really didn't look outmatched or intimidated physically at all. And he's actually a month younger than Barnes despite being a sophomore. If he can have a game like this against Barnes, I don't see any reason why he can't play some point forward at the next level as he continues to develop.

Watch on YouTube

Zombiesonics · Post #111 » by **Zombiesonics** » Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:11 pm

I'm a little concerned with wagners overall offensive prowess, I'd be interested to see a list of wing lottery picks from the past with similar usage @ the college level. I get his major selling point is two way ability but in the nba you have to be able to generate some looks for yourself. I had this issue with lonzo in college, he had really low FGAs and was pretty selective with them.

nolang1 · Post #112 » by **nolang1** » Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:34 pm

Zombiesonics wrote:I'm a little concerned with wagners overall offensive prowess, I'd be interested to see a list of wing lottery picks from the past with similar usage @ the college level. I get his major selling point is two way ability but in the nba you have to be able to generate some looks for yourself. I had this issue with lonzo in college, he had really low FGAs and was pretty selective with them.

That's slicing the sample extremely thin because there really aren't a huge number of wing lottery picks in the first place. Mikal Bridges (14-15% first two years), Otto Porter Jr (17.4% as freshman), and Anunoby (17.4% as freshman) would be the recent ones I could find with lower usage than Wagner, which tbh seems to offer a higher hit rate than drafting a high-usage wing and then hoping a Stanley Johnson/Josh Jackson type of player figures out they in fact should be a lot more selective on offense.

edit: Oops, OG wasn't a lottery pick because teams psych themselves out way too much about non-chronic injuries. He was thought of as a lotto pick before his ACL injury in college and has obviously played like one since.

Charm · Post #113 » by **Charm** » Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:39 pm

Zombiesonics wrote:I'm a little concerned with wagners overall offensive prowess, I'd be interested to see a list of wing lottery picks from the past with similar usage @ the college level. I get his major selling point is two way ability but in the nba you have to be able to generate some looks for yourself. I had this issue with lonzo in college, he had really low FGAs and was pretty selective with them.

Yeah, but you have to look at the other perimeter players on that team:

Mike Smith - grad transfer senior
Eli Brooks - another senior
Isaiah Livers - yet another senior
Chaundee Brown - one more senior

All of them are very skilled offensive players who're 3+ years older than Franz. Plus, they happen to have Dickinson, Davis, and Johns, all of whom are high-percentage finishers inside. So I don't think there was ever a realistic pathway for Wagner to be a high-usage guy day in and day out...there were just way too many ballhandling/scoring options around him.

This creates a bit of a dilemma, because we don't know what Wagner would've looked like on a "normal" team where he would've been the clear primary ballhandler all the time. Basically the same situation as Suggs for Gonzaga, where he did show flashes of 1-on-1 creation ability, but overall his counting stats were fairly modest because he played on such a stacked team. Of course, that's also part of the fun of evaluating these guys.

Zombiesonics · Post #114 » by **Zombiesonics** » Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:47 pm

nolang1 wrote:That's slicing the sample extremely thin because there really aren't a huge number of wing lottery picks in the first place. Mikal Bridges (14-15% first two years), Otto Porter Jr (17.4% as freshman), and Anunoby (17.4% as freshman) would be the recent ones I could find with lower usage than Wagner, which tbh seems to offer a higher hit rate than drafting a high-usage wing and then hoping a Stanley Johnson/Josh Jackson type of player figures out they in fact should be a lot more selective on offense.

Great point. I'm still relatively high on wagner (ok with second half of lotto, 9-12ish) because watching him play i found his defense to be legit. Really great instincts and lateral movement , but i think the passing is a bit overrated. he is not kyle anderson for instance, he's a guy who can make the right reads within the flow of the offense. but creating tons of advanced looks off drives? I didn't see that.

Ell Curry · Post #115 » by **Ell Curry** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:30 am

I think he might go 8th to the Magic on fit alone. They have guards and centers so getting Kuminga/Barnes and Wagner at 5 and 8 at least gives them a sensical roster:

Carter/Bamba
Isaac/Kuminga/Wagner/Okeke
Fultz/Anthony/Hampton

This team could lose 60 games while giving those 9 guys a healthy 25 minutes a night each to at least see what they have going for them, instead of just stacking up guys and seeing their value drop like Cleveland has with Sexland or Chicago did with Markannen and Carter.

Ell Curry · Post #116 » by **Ell Curry** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:32 am

Zombiesonics wrote:
nolang1 wrote:That's slicing the sample extremely thin because there really aren't a huge number of wing lottery picks in the first place. Mikal Bridges (14-15% first two years), Otto Porter Jr (17.4% as freshman), and Anunoby (17.4% as freshman) would be the recent ones I could find with lower usage than Wagner, which tbh seems to offer a higher hit rate than drafting a high-usage wing and then hoping a Stanley Johnson/Josh Jackson type of player figures out they in fact should be a lot more selective on offense.

Great point. I'm still relatively high on wagner (ok with second half of lotto, 9-12ish) because watching him play i found his defense to be legit. Really great instincts and lateral movement , but i think the passing is a bit overrated. he is not kyle anderson for instance, he's a guy who can make the right reads within the flow of the offense. but creating tons of advanced looks off drives? I didn't see that.

Passing off of drives was maybe his best offensive skill last year, along with using his length on drives to his right. He's a very good passer off of closeouts.

Big J · Post #117 » by **Big J** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:38 am

Dubs are taking Fraz if he’s on the board at 7. He just fits their system way too well to pass up.

MemphisX · Post #118 » by **MemphisX** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 8:07 am

Big J wrote:Dubs are taking Fraz if he’s on the board at 7. He just fits their system way too well to pass up.

This would be the best pick. Take Jaden Springer at 14 just to give them a POA defender with upside.

Springer, Franz and Wiseman is a nice building block for the future.

Unfortunately, they will likely trade one or both picks. :lol:

Coeur · Post #119 » by **Coeur** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 3:02 pm

Big J wrote:Dubs are taking Fraz if he’s on the board at 7. He just fits their system way too well to pass up.

How can they avoid bpa’s for a guy that will be buried behind Wiggins, draymond, and klay?

A few years from now when they need primary options they’ll look to Wagner?

Wagner could be an option at 14. No way golden state can take him at 7. Jalen Johnson. Bouknight. Maybe Keon Johnson. Have to go off of a bpa list.

Wizop · Post #120 » by **Wizop** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 3:41 pm

Coeur wrote:Wagner could be an option at 14.

I'd sure like him for my Pacers at 13. can't say we'd take him in a vacuum though as I'd have to know who else was still on the board.