Big J wrote:No, it’s more the track record of guys who look like him busting over the years. Granted he could be the exception, but I’d rather err with the historical precedent.
Basically no one had his skillset.
No disrespect, but it sounds like ~2006-white guy bashing. Yeah, Chet has his question marks, but they're not a risk of getting posterized regularly (wtf) or his ankle getting broken on perimeter.
Holmgren is a great shotblocker (amazing size and great timing), and really fluid with movement for a player of his size, and his skillset is obviously pretty crazy for a big man of his age. It is fair tho to discuss his lower body strength, frame and how skinny he is considering demands of NBA playing. And you may wonder if KPs or Zion's cases (obviously, ignoring he's completely unprofessional) make GMs hesitant to take Holmgren at the very top of the draft.
That being said, only injuries can prevent Holmgren from going in top3 next year: Gonzaga is a team to beat, his boxscore production is ridiculous and his skillset is veeery advanced. It's a small sample size, but he can put some alltime great shotblocking numbers with versatile plug-in offensive impact all year long.