What are the chances someone crashes the top four?

Laimbeer · Post #1 » by **Laimbeer** » Tue May 18, 2021 5:02 pm

What are the chances someone other than Cade, Mobley, Suggs, or Green cracks the top four picks?

nolang1 · Post #2 » by **nolang1** » Tue May 18, 2021 5:12 pm

I suppose there's always the chance someone gets hurt working out or has some major medical red flag, but the buzz on them seems to be so high that there would be no shortage of offers to trade down if you were in the top 4 and wanted Kuminga or someone else. 8%.

edit: my most likely candidate at crashing the top 4 would be Sengun through some combination of him continuing to put up numbers as more teams can actually go overseas to scout now, Jokic and Doncic really balling out in the playoffs in a way that makes more people decide they don't want to get burned again by passing on a super productive, super high-IQ European prospect, and a team like Cleveland that already has some young guard prospects drafting 3 or 4 with Cade and Mobley off the board.

CptCrunch · Post #3 » by **CptCrunch** » Tue May 18, 2021 5:22 pm

Jalen Johnson has non-negligible chances of getting in top 4.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if he gets picked before Suggs, who I view as a tier or two below the top 3.

A deep sleeper that is being mocked as late first, early 2nd that is listed as a #1 candidate is Ziaire Williams on betting sites (Cade, Kuminaga, Mobley, Green, Suggs, Barnes, Johnson, Moody, Kispert, etc)

Stillwater · Post #4 » by **Stillwater** » Wed May 19, 2021 2:17 am

I mean it would not be that surprising if Kuminga went 2nd and only a raised eyebrow if Barnes went higher than 4th but I think somebody like Sengun is going to get some late riser business probably not top 4 though. My best guess if anything weird happens somebody falls in love with Wagner or Moody and over picks them

Stillwater · Post #5 » by **Stillwater** » Wed May 19, 2021 2:19 am

CptCrunch wrote:Jalen Johnson has non-negligible chances of getting in top 4.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if he gets picked before Suggs, who I view as a tier or two below the top 3.

A deep sleeper that is being mocked as late first, early 2nd that is listed as a #1 candidate is Ziaire Williams on betting sites (Cade, Kuminaga, Mobley, Green, Suggs, Barnes, Johnson, Moody, Kispert, etc)

the talent is there but we have seen for awhile now how far players who quit on their coaches and bail as a repeat offender usually lose draft stock pretty quick. I bet he falls out of the top 10 unless he absolutely kills the pre draft interviews

nicnac215 · Post #6 » by **nicnac215** » Wed May 19, 2021 11:35 am

20% Kuminga crashes. Top 5 in cement

NYPiston · Post #7 » by **NYPiston** » Wed May 19, 2021 1:16 pm

Kuminga is as talented as anybody in this draft. If he didn't have some struggles in a small sample size of games in a G League bubble, this would be the "Big 5" not the "Big 4" so I wouldn't be shocked if he was taken before 5 by a team who values how high his ceiling is and would take the risk of his higher bust potential than the safer picks in the top 4.

Lockdown504090 · Post #8 » by **Lockdown504090** » Wed May 19, 2021 8:04 pm

NYPiston wrote:Kuminga is as talented as anybody in this draft. If he didn't have some struggles in a small sample size of games in a G League bubble, this would be the "Big 5" not the "Big 4" so I wouldn't be shocked if he was taken before 5 by a team who values how high his ceiling is and would take the risk of his higher bust potential than the safer picks in the top 4.

I thought he was quite good. He needed to go in there and show his athleticism, and show that hes not a dumbass. he made good passes and communicated well on defense. I thought Ignite helped him a lot. Green was just so much more athletic than everyone else, and a great shooter, so the stats were easy for him( i love green too btw)

EMG518 · Post #9 » by **EMG518** » Thu May 20, 2021 12:00 am

I would say really slim someone cracks the top 3 outside of those 4 in my opinion. Better chance someone cracks the top 4. I personally wouldn't take them as my top 4 so I know mine would.

tidho · Post #10 » by **tidho** » Sat May 22, 2021 6:32 pm

Pretty much considered a top 5 that includes Kuminga. I'd say the chances are reasonable he could be top 4 just depending on which team is in the 4 spot. Hard to believe CLE would take Suggs over Kuminga, for instance.

Neeva · Post #11 » by **Neeva** » Mon May 24, 2021 3:10 am

I have Jalen Suggs dropping to 5 but being a top 3 rookie at the end of the season with the top 2 being Cade and Jalen Green.

DCasey91 · Post #12 » by **DCasey91** » Mon May 24, 2021 3:41 am

Sengun/Giddey may raise a few eyebrows on draft night on where they are drafted but other than that the top 4/5 is pretty much solidified. I can’t see anyone else jumping the gun on that. Because if Kuminga is at 5th, prospects after him still need to work on their games who have similar upsides.

Barnes/Johnson/Williams are behind on development to Kuminga for me.

Nate the Great · Post #13 » by **Nate the Great** » Mon May 24, 2021 12:17 pm

The NBA is all about shooting right now, so a great shooter like Kispert could rise. Probably not into the top 4, though.

I could see a team taking Kuminga with Suggs still on the board. Otherwise the top four looks like a lock, barring injury or some major scandal.