Jonathan Kuminga...Beast or Bust?

[Skybox]

ORL got #5 and, to this point, most have the draft with Cade alone at #1, The next 3 debatable but still an island of 3, and then Kuminga.

He's obviously a physical marvel but so are a lot of guys...for those of you who have followed him, does he have the "Mamba/Giannis" stuff between his ears to refuse to lose or is he just a combine superstar?

In my mind, as an ORL fan, the new coaching staff will have the biggest impact on what kind of raw materials we are able to draft.

[Roger Murdock]

Realistically someone with his athleticism and potential will at least be decent but it’s rare someone so raw becomes a total star, and playing as a wing is the area you need the most skill / well rounded game

I think it’s way more likely he ends up somewhere as a 3rd-6th option on a team than it is he ends up a #1 or ends up being terrible

If I had to do odds I’d say

10% - legit superstar (Kawhi)
20% - star/really good player (Siakem)
50% - good to decent rotation player (Gordon/Nance)
20% - boarderline rotation player / bench warmer / out of league soon (Wes Johnson)

[Marcus]

*waiting for Duke to enter the thread*

[yoyoboy]

Kuminga is the type of prospect who continues to trick GMs into overdrafting him year after year. Raw athlete who you’re just hoping develops all of the basketball abilities later. I wouldn’t take him in the top 10 personally.

[rapstarter]

Sounds like a Wesley Johnson or a Josh Jackson to me.

[RookieStar]

Yeah curious about him. While the 2-5 spots aren't really set in stone right now, Kuminga is most likely to be the 5th.

Also, since GL ended up to know, we really haven't really heard any progress right? Like, did he have the Anthony "Magic" Randolph effect ( grew 3inches , lost 15lbs of fat while gaining 10lbs of muscle in a summer ) or any training to improve his shots, agility, etc?

What is his height really? LOL Since he didn't have himself measured, we read that it's anywhere from 6'6 barefoot to 6'8 in shoes.

[clyde21]

some harsh takes ^ above, I think he's clearly a tier 2 talent in this class after Cade/Mobley, NBA level physical profile, one of the youngest cats in the entire class too, and already shows a sufficient all around skill set where u can extrapolate some stuff from at the NBA level

if I am Orlando I'd take him 5 and run. TJ Warren type is a good medium outcome for him I think

[EMG518]

Where expectations are I believe he will be considered a bust. I wouldn't start considering him until late lottery.

[Stillwater]

Realistically someone with his athleticism and potential will at least be decent but it’s rare someone so raw becomes a total star, and playing as a wing is the area you need the most skill / well rounded game

I think it’s way more likely he ends up somewhere as a 3rd-6th option on a team than it is he ends up a #1 or ends up being terrible

If I had to do odds I’d say

10% - legit superstar (Kawhi)
20% - star/really good player (Siakem)
50% - good to decent rotation player (Gordon/Nance)
20% - boarderline rotation player / bench warmer / out of league soon (Wes Johnson)

But this is the problem with your take and so many others and why he keeps staying slightly below the top tier
He is not raw at all... not even a little bit. His shot selection was fkn lazy and loose after the Ignite team had nothing to play for beyond that he is going to be a monster in 4 years.

[retrobro90]

some harsh takes ^ above, I think he's clearly a tier 2 talent in this class after Cade/Mobley, NBA level physical profile, one of the youngest cats in the entire class too, and already shows a sufficient all around skill set where u can extrapolate some stuff from at the NBA level

if I am Orlando I'd take him 5 and run. TJ Warren type is a good medium outcome for him I think

Agreed. I think the criticism has snowballed in the past month or so for what seems to be no reason. I like Kuminga and it's encouraging to me that his flashes are not in one particular area. He's shown he's at least capable of getting to his shot/making plays for others/defending at a high level etc etc. Before the G league season started and during the Ignite training camp the word from those inside the practices was that HE was the guy (not Green). He plays (or at least has the potential to play) the most sought after position/archetype in basketball.

There are two key things I think people need to keep in mind when they talk about his efficiency inside those 13 games he played in the G league. And also keep in mind that I am not trying to say that his efficiency #s should be completely dismissed when it comes to his evaluation because they are not tenable if he continues.

1. One of Kuminga's current weaknesses I'd say is the instinct for when to pass/dribble/shoot once he has the ball. He's very comfortable operating out of triple threat or the mid post so there are often times when he is gifted an easy catch and shoot opportunity but frustratingly opts to take/create a more difficult one in those settings because it's what he's comfortable doing (still impressive considering the moves themselves and ignoring the bad decision making skills)

2. The FT% in particular to me seems low for what I think he truly is as a shooter. The G league FTs work differently so 1 FTA will actually count for 2 points. This leaves FT shooters with less 2nd FTs which are on average much better than 1st FTs. Add this rule to the already small sample size (48 FTs across 13 games) and I think the percentage (62.5%) is a little noisy but that's just my eye test based on the kinds of difficult shots he takes and the overall speed of his release.

[BostonCouchGM]

if he hits he has HOF type talent and will make the G.M. look like a genius. He reminds me of Jaylen Brown and should become an all-star if he gets good coaching and has work ethic. The sky is the limit. He's not really like some of the past "raw" guys because he's really not that raw. He's just young and inexperienced. Sure, it might take a few years to really shine but at minimum, at worst, he's Miles Bridges. The hapless Hornets stymied Bridge's development otherwise he'd be further along and considered one of their core and reason they didn't need to sign Hayward. But you can't help who drafts you. He should hope he doesn't land in CLE or ORL but he likely will. ORL is the better fit for him with Barnes better for CLE.

[GSWFan1994]

Sounds like a Wesley Johnson or a Josh Jackson to me.

Not at all, different situations.

Just for start, Johnson and Jackson were drafted at 21/22 years old, whereas Kuminga is still 18/19.

[disoblige]

A project. But not a bust. A 18yr average 16pts .497 TS in g-league. Not too crazy to belive in two years he can improve on those True Shooting.

[Upperclass]

He'll be a raptor at 4. Fits next to Siakam and could replace him in a few years.

[Chuck Everett]

Another developmental pick. Showed flashes in G-League season, but truth be told, covid ravaged that as well. Measurements also matter as do workouts. Just penciling him in as the 5th pick seems like a mistake. Orlando has taken so many athletes who can't score, it's criminal in the last decade or so.

[nolang1]

some harsh takes ^ above, I think he's clearly a tier 2 talent in this class after Cade/Mobley, NBA level physical profile, one of the youngest cats in the entire class too, and already shows a sufficient all around skill set where u can extrapolate some stuff from at the NBA level

if I am Orlando I'd take him 5 and run. TJ Warren type is a good medium outcome for him I think

Agreed. I think the criticism has snowballed in the past month or so for what seems to be no reason. I like Kuminga and it's encouraging to me that his flashes are not in one particular area. He's shown he's at least capable of getting to his shot/making plays for others/defending at a high level etc etc. Before the G league season started and during the Ignite training camp the word from those inside the practices was that HE was the guy (not Green). He plays (or at least has the potential to play) the most sought after position/archetype in basketball.

There are two key things I think people need to keep in mind when they talk about his efficiency inside those 13 games he played in the G league. And also keep in mind that I am not trying to say that his efficiency #s should be completely dismissed when it comes to his evaluation because they are not tenable if he continues.

I think the G league was definitely a tougher environment than it was most years. I'd imagine there was a big difference in intensity between a game where everyone's in a bubble in Orlando and the game is on ESPN and every team has scouts there versus one where the opponents just got off a bus ride from Fort Wayne to Sioux Falls.

Green really came on the last few games but a lot of Kuminga's inefficiency was from playing with little spacing and being one of two shot creators on the entire team. Going from the high school to the pro line is such a big jump, and it was basically a given that Ignite would be outscored by 20+ points a game from behind the arc.

[mademan]

He'll be a raptor at 4. Fits next to Siakam and could replace him in a few years.

If Masai ends up drafting him, i'll have a lot more hope for Kuminga than i do now. I just dont like drafting raw players at the top of the draft. Seems like too much of a crapshoot

[yoyoboy]

He'll be a raptor at 4. Fits next to Siakam and could replace him in a few years.

If Masai ends up drafting him, i'll have a lot more hope for Kuminga than i do now. I just dont like drafting raw players at the top of the draft. Seems like too much of a crapshoot

I agree with this. Teams like Cleveland, Orlando, or Detroit really shouldn't be prioritizing the guy over the other prospects in the range. While I still wouldn't take him top 10, I can definitely see the appeal if the Raptors decide to trade down and get back another asset along with Kuminga. Their developmental team is virtually unmatched.

[GSWFan1994]

He'll be a raptor at 4. Fits next to Siakam and could replace him in a few years.

If Masai ends up drafting him, i'll have a lot more hope for Kuminga than i do now. I just dont like drafting raw players at the top of the draft. Seems like too much of a crapshoot

I think it's a given that Suggs would be a Raptor come draft day.

Makes too much sense, either by fit or by pure talent.

But I can see Orlando passing on Kuminga too, and dare I say, OKC too... I might be getting a feeling that OKC will throw a curveball and go for Sengun.

[Stillwater]

Teams not going into a long rebuild will probably steer clear and regret it later unless he goes to a org that doesnt develop players