Talent Over Need -OR- No Need For Talent

Wammy Giveaway · Post #1 » by **Wammy Giveaway** » Wed Jul 28, 2021 4:48 am

The draft is upon us on Thursday, and the one constant I've picked up in my almost nine years with basketball is choosing talent over need. You pick the best player available, never the position your roster is lacking. Every time a team picks a player out of need, based on my observation, the player never ever pans out for the team and for their troubles, the player instantly becomes a draft bust.

What I want to know is why. Why is it always talent over need? Is it something akin to a sports superstition, where your team will be cursed with a lottery drought or other bad things happening to your franchise if you fail to pick a talented prospect?

But not all need picks are bad, right? When was the last time a team picked a need player that actually worked out for them? Has a need player ever turned into a role player, role starter, role star, or even a superstar? Has that need player ever led a team into the playoffs, or actually made their franchise relevant, championship or not?

Let's really get into the nitty gritty of why need picks are discouraged over talent picks.

clyde21 · Post #2 » by **clyde21** » Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:29 am

it's usually neither, you have players layered in tiers, and within those tiers you pick the best fit.

BPA only happens when it's a guy like Zion, or someone you have from a higher tier drops into your range so he's the clear BPA...otherwise its usually a combo of talent/need/fit.

buzzkilloton · Post #3 » by **buzzkilloton** » Wed Jul 28, 2021 6:30 am

Bad teams should always go for talent over need. Teams that have some franchise pieces in place but are still building should be more prone to go need but never pass up on a much more talented player for need. A contending team like the Warriors with a tight window will always go need unless at the very top of the draft but at that point this kind of team will be considering trading down.

pad300 · Post #4 » by **pad300** » Wed Jul 28, 2021 4:18 pm

The theoretical explanation for Talent over Need is pretty straightforward: you can trade. Trading a more talented guy will get you a better fit (but less talented) guy and another asset (or more); whereas to upgrade talent, you need to add assets.

LakersLegacy · Post #5 » by **LakersLegacy** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:18 am

buzzkilloton wrote:Bad teams should always go for talent over need. Teams that have some franchise pieces in place but are still building should be more prone to go need but never pass up on a much more talented player for need. A contending team like the Warriors with a tight window will always go need unless at the very top of the draft but at that point this kind of team will be considering trading down.

But they keep drafting long term prospects. Myers got cheap. He could have got Beal. Eventually the Warriors will make their move of young assets for win now.

clyde21 · Post #6 » by **clyde21** » Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:41 pm

LakersLegacy wrote:
buzzkilloton wrote:Bad teams should always go for talent over need. Teams that have some franchise pieces in place but are still building should be more prone to go need but never pass up on a much more talented player for need. A contending team like the Warriors with a tight window will always go need unless at the very top of the draft but at that point this kind of team will be considering trading down.

But they keep drafting long term prospects. Myers got cheap. He could have got Beal. Eventually the Warriors will make their move of young assets for win now.

lol trading for Beal would have been disasterous for the Warriors and we're all glad he didnt.

Saints14 · Post #7 » by **Saints14** » Sat Jul 31, 2021 12:06 am

Drafting for “need” is shortsighted, but I think teams should draft for “fit”. If you have franchise cornerstones, you should draft players that fit with and can grow with that existing talent

Post #8 » by **Nuntius** » Sun Aug 1, 2021 1:00 am

pad300 wrote:The theoretical explanation for Talent over Need is pretty straightforward: you can trade. Trading a more talented guy will get you a better fit (but less talented) guy and another asset (or more); whereas to upgrade talent, you need to add assets.

Only early on, though. A talented player that has even better players ahead of him in the depth chart won't see much playing time and that tends to deprecate a player's value.

DCasey91 · Post #9 » by **DCasey91** » Sun Aug 1, 2021 1:12 am

Talent over need except for Centers. Centers need playing time more then others. Two max to develop anymore then that and they’ll be a big logjam. Their development stalls and coming from further back because it’s a one position fill.

PG/SG/SF/PF can fill multiple positions and roles on the court but a Center is a Center.

Other then that it’s circumstantial and context plays a big part of it, not always cut and dry.