Best drafting front office?

[DWhiteMamba]

Who is the best drafting front office? I'll go with the Spurs. Despite B.Wright's role in the last few years, it's functionally been the same core front office run with Buford and Pop at the center for decades now, and their draft record over that time speaks for itself.

My methodology for rating draft picks is pretty straight forward. If the draft were done again in hindsight, where would the guy you picked have gone? That's the fairest baseline for assessing picks, not "yeh, but Jokic was the next pick, so your 2nd round pick sucked". Looking at the Spurs record is pretty impressive. I'll exclude 2020 on onwards because it's too early, though I like both Vassell and Primo, but Keldon/White/Dejounte went 29th and it looks like they'd have gone top 5-10 in a redraft. Kawhi went 15th and should have gone #1. George Hill would have been a 7-10 lotto pick on a redraft despite going in the late 20s in actuality. Lonny Walker has shown promise but it's wait and see with him still. Samanic is TBD still. There's a bunch of solid role players they got too; Bertans (42), CoJo (29), SlowMo (30), Tiago (28). Only a few real misses, and some of those are tempered by the context. Livio got hurt and lost his explosion, taking away what made him a viable NBA player. Milutinov was picked as a stash to assure the team they had the cap to get LMA and keep Duncan, which led to a 67 win team the next year. As it turned out they didn't need to pick a stash, but they didn't know that the cap would be much higher than projected when they did that and they had to clear all the cap they could. Sensible move tbh. We'll see if Samanic ends up as a bust, it's still too early.

[Hal14]

Celtics don't get listed in the poll? Last few yrs they drafted:

Marcus Smart
Jaylen Brown
Jayson Tatum
Robert Williams

All 4 of them signed contract extensions that will keep them all with the team for the next few years

Williams was the 27th pick in the draft, a steal. Payton Pritchard was the 26th pick in the draft, another steal as he was arguably a top 10 rookie last year.

Maybe the Celtics were left off cause the guy who drafted those players (ainge) is no longer in the front office?

Well, the rest of the front office / scouting department is still there..and Brad Stevens is now president of basketball operations - you know that he had some influence in those draft picks when he was head coach..

[clyde21]

Atlanta to me right now

[crows2]

Atlanta to me right now

I don't see any rational argument for Atlanta over Denver.

Denver
2011: Faried (pick 22) – Good value
2011: Hamilton (pick 26) – Bust
2012: Fournier (pick 20) – Good value
2012: Miller (pick 38) - Bust
2013: Green (pick 46) – Bust, and traded as part of Gobert deal
2014: Nurkic (pick 16) – Good value
2014: Harris (pick 19) – Good value
2014: Jokic (pick 41) – One of the greatest picks of all time
2015: Mudiay (pick 7) – Bust
2016: Murray (pick 7) – Good value
2016: Hernangomez (pick 15) – Below-average value
2016: Beasley (pick 19) – Good-solid value
2017: Lydon (pick 24) – Bust, and traded as part of Mitchell deal
2017: Morris (pick 51) – Good value
2018: Porter (pick 14) – Good-great value
2018: Vanderbilt (pick 41) – Solid value, but only after being traded
2019: Bol (pick 44) – Good value on paper, but big question marks
2020: Nnaji (pick 22) – TBD
2020: Hampton (pick 24) – Seemingly decent value, used as trade bait
2021: Hyland (pick 26) – Decent value on paper, encouraging Summer League

Atlanta
2012: Jenkins (pick 23) – Bust
2012: Scott (pick 43) – Solid value
2013: Nogueira (pick 16) – Bust
2013: Schroeder (pick 17) – Good value
2013: Muscala (pick 44) – Solid value
2014: Payne (pick 15) – Bust
2014: Tavares (pick 43) – Bust
2014: Patterson (pick 48) – Bust
2016: Prince (pick 12) – Solid value
2016: Bembry (pick 21) - Bust
2017: Collins (pick 19) – Good-great value
2017: Dorsey (pick 41) – Bust
2018: Young (pick 5) – Great value, but traded as part of Doncic deal = net loss
2018: Huerter (pick 19) – Solid-good value
2018: Spellman (pick 30) – Bust
2019: Hunter (pick 4) – Seemingly good value
2019: Reddish (pick 10) – Huge question marks, likely trade bait, traded as part of Doncic deal = net loss
2019: Fernando (pick 34) - Below-average value
2020: Okongwu (pick 6) – TBD
2020: Mays (pick 50) – TBD
2021: Johnson (pick 20) – Good value on paper, encouraging Summer League, big question marks
2021: Cooper (pick 48) – Good value on paper, encouraging Summer League

The only major whiffs by Denver were trading away the rights to Gobert and Mitchell (and ironically setting up Utah's future). Atlanta has drafted more busts and will likely never make a pick a good as Jokic.

[Ball4life32]

Atlanta to me right now

I don't see any rational argument for Atlanta over Denver.

Denver
2011: Faried (pick 22) – Good value
2011: Hamilton (pick 26) – Bust
2012: Fournier (pick 20) – Good value
2012: Miller (pick 38) - Bust
2013: Green (pick 46) – Bust, and traded as part of Gobert deal
2014: Nurkic (pick 16) – Good value
2014: Harris (pick 19) – Good value
2014: Jokic (pick 41) – One of the greatest picks of all time
2015: Mudiay (pick 7) – Bust
2016: Murray (pick 7) – Good value
2016: Hernangomez (pick 15) – Below-average value
2016: Beasley (pick 19) – Good-solid value
2017: Lydon (pick 24) – Bust, and traded as part of Mitchell deal
2017: Morris (pick 51) – Good value
2018: Porter (pick 14) – Good-great value
2018: Vanderbilt (pick 41) – Solid value, but only after being traded
2019: Bol (pick 44) – Good value on paper, but big question marks
2020: Nnaji (pick 22) – TBD
2020: Hampton (pick 24) – Seemingly decent value, used as trade bait
2021: Hyland (pick 26) – Decent value on paper, encouraging Summer League

Atlanta
2012: Jenkins (pick 23) – Bust
2012: Scott (pick 43) – Solid value
2013: Nogueira (pick 16) – Bust
2013: Schroeder (pick 17) – Good value
2013: Muscala (pick 44) – Solid value
2014: Payne (pick 15) – Bust
2014: Tavares (pick 43) – Bust
2014: Patterson (pick 48) – Bust
2016: Prince (pick 12) – Solid value
2016: Bembry (pick 21) - Bust
2017: Collins (pick 19) – Good-great value
2017: Dorsey (pick 41) – Bust
2018: Young (pick 5) – Great value, but traded as part of Doncic deal = net loss
2018: Huerter (pick 19) – Solid-good value
2018: Spellman (pick 30) – Bust
2019: Hunter (pick 4) – Seemingly good value
2019: Reddish (pick 10) – Huge question marks, likely trade bait, traded as part of Doncic deal = net loss
2019: Fernando (pick 34) - Below-average value
2020: Okongwu (pick 6) – TBD
2020: Mays (pick 50) – TBD
2021: Johnson (pick 20) – Good value on paper, encouraging Summer League, big question marks
2021: Cooper (pick 48) – Good value on paper, encouraging Summer League

The only major whiffs by Denver were trading away the rights to Gobert and Mitchell (and ironically setting up Utah's future). Atlanta has drafted more busts and will likely never make a pick a good as Jokic.

Atlanta’s current front office was hired in 2017 so not sure why 2012-2016 draft picks are listed here. (their first draft pick was Collins)

[clyde21]

Atlanta to me right now

I don't see any rational argument for Atlanta over Denver.

Denver
2011: Faried (pick 22) – Good value
2011: Hamilton (pick 26) – Bust
2012: Fournier (pick 20) – Good value
2012: Miller (pick 38) - Bust
2013: Green (pick 46) – Bust, and traded as part of Gobert deal
2014: Nurkic (pick 16) – Good value
2014: Harris (pick 19) – Good value
2014: Jokic (pick 41) – One of the greatest picks of all time
2015: Mudiay (pick 7) – Bust
2016: Murray (pick 7) – Good value
2016: Hernangomez (pick 15) – Below-average value
2016: Beasley (pick 19) – Good-solid value
2017: Lydon (pick 24) – Bust, and traded as part of Mitchell deal
2017: Morris (pick 51) – Good value
2018: Porter (pick 14) – Good-great value
2018: Vanderbilt (pick 41) – Solid value, but only after being traded
2019: Bol (pick 44) – Good value on paper, but big question marks
2020: Nnaji (pick 22) – TBD
2020: Hampton (pick 24) – Seemingly decent value, used as trade bait
2021: Hyland (pick 26) – Decent value on paper, encouraging Summer League

Atlanta
2012: Jenkins (pick 23) – Bust
2012: Scott (pick 43) – Solid value
2013: Nogueira (pick 16) – Bust
2013: Schroeder (pick 17) – Good value
2013: Muscala (pick 44) – Solid value
2014: Payne (pick 15) – Bust
2014: Tavares (pick 43) – Bust
2014: Patterson (pick 48) – Bust
2016: Prince (pick 12) – Solid value
2016: Bembry (pick 21) - Bust
2017: Collins (pick 19) – Good-great value
2017: Dorsey (pick 41) – Bust
2018: Young (pick 5) – Great value, but traded as part of Doncic deal = net loss
2018: Huerter (pick 19) – Solid-good value
2018: Spellman (pick 30) – Bust
2019: Hunter (pick 4) – Seemingly good value
2019: Reddish (pick 10) – Huge question marks, likely trade bait, traded as part of Doncic deal = net loss
2019: Fernando (pick 34) - Below-average value
2020: Okongwu (pick 6) – TBD
2020: Mays (pick 50) – TBD
2021: Johnson (pick 20) – Good value on paper, encouraging Summer League, big question marks
2021: Cooper (pick 48) – Good value on paper, encouraging Summer League

The only major whiffs by Denver were trading away the rights to Gobert and Mitchell (and ironically setting up Utah's future). Atlanta has drafted more busts and will likely never make a pick a good as Jokic.

im not sure why you are including anything for Atlanta before 2017 when Schlenk and current FO came on board...you can see a huge difference in how they've drafted since then.

[crows2]

Front office personnel changes too often to provide a long-term analysis of drafting success. I'd rather measure the franchise as a whole. Even narrowing the Hawks down to the past 5 years, they pale in comparison to the Nuggets past decade on average. It's far too early to give the Hawks any extra credit for Johnson, Cooper and Okongwu. There's too much prognostication involved in a draft analysis that spans less than 5 years.

[clyde21]

Front office personnel changes too often to provide a long-term analysis of drafting success. I'd rather measure the franchise as a whole. Even narrowing the Hawks down to the past 5 years, they pale in comparison to the Nuggets past decade on average. It's far too early to give the Hawks any extra credit for Johnson, Cooper and Okongwu. There's too much prognostication involved in a draft analysis that spans less than 5 years.

then make the argument that the sample size for Schlenk and team is too small, but providing data before 2017 has nothing to do with Atlanta's FO today

really I look at this question like this: if I have a pick in the middle of the first round...which team do I trust the most to make the pick? hard for me to pick anyone over Schlenk at this point given the players and archetypes hes been drafting...which is just as important as the players themselves imo...does the drafting philosophy make sense?

thats not to say Denver ain't up there too...everyone knows how I feel about the Hampton/Bol picks, they do better than anyone else late in the draft...but I just love what Atlanta has done both early and mid tiers more than anyone else since Schlenks taken over.

[DWhiteMamba]

Celtics don't get listed in the poll? Last few yrs they drafted:

Marcus Smart
Jaylen Brown
Jayson Tatum
Robert Williams

All 4 of them signed contract extensions that will keep them all with the team for the next few years

Williams was the 27th pick in the draft, a steal. Payton Pritchard was the 26th pick in the draft, another steal as he was arguably a top 10 rookie last year.

Maybe the Celtics were left off cause the guy who drafted those players (ainge) is no longer in the front office?

Well, the rest of the front office / scouting department is still there..and Brad Stevens is now president of basketball operations - you know that he had some influence in those draft picks when he was head coach..

Celtics have made alot of bad picks too, and I'm in the camp of "I'll believe it when I see it" for Timelord. Tatum was projected by everyone to go #3. Danny fleecing the Sixers in that deal is a testament to his trade prowess, not his drafting ability. Almost every team was taking Tatum at #3, regardless of what Danny said in hindsight about where he'd have taken him. Smart was projected even higher by some people, and while I like him as a player he is a valuable role player who is a borderline bench player when used optimally. For where he was picked that is not anything special. Some might argue his passing on Randle, a move he claimed laurels for years over because of his supposedly brilliant insight into sports psychology, was a mistake. Smart was taken 6th, and in a redraft with hindsight he would probably still go 6th (behind Jokic, Embiid, Lavine, J.Grant and Randle). That is just ordinary run of the mill competence, not anything above that.

Ainge is also no longer the GM, as you say. This is about the primary decision makers, not some scouts in the background who we don't even know the level of involvement of. For years we'd hear how Ainge ignored his scouts all the time, so how could we act like this is a continuing front office? We obviously can't.

[DWhiteMamba]

The Hawks winning this poll epitomises the "what have you done for me lately" attitude of many. I debated not even including them given how little they've done so far. How they can compare to the Spurs or Raptors or Nuggets of this list I have no idea.

[NO-KG-AI]

The Hawks are riding the train of taking guys that were deemed to have “fell” in the draft and were draftnik favorites. If in a few years all those guys are misses, no one will bring it up again.

I really like all of their picks the last few years aside from Reddish, but we have to see if they actually pan out. As of now, they’ve drafted one star, and they traded a better one to take him.

[DCasey91]

It’s gotta be the Nuggets. They should have just kept the players they drafted though lol. Championship contender right now

Murray
Mitchell
MPJ
Jokic
Gobert

Only one inside the top ten. That’s a crazy lineup of value. Actually they do better drafting later on. Smart they draft players who shouldn’t be there that late.

MPJ, RJ from recent memory. Both top 5/10 talents respectively.

And do hit huge on the backend (Gobert/Jokic). Gobert didn’t develop there but Jokic/Gobert big men same deal.

It’s not the Hawks even though they drafted well and I think Trae has an MVP season in him. Still that trade is one of the worst ones this past decade.

It’s like trading Dirk for Nash. Reddish is still up in there and could very well leave as soon as this year.

[DWhiteMamba]

When you draft a guy for another team like Gobert, that's not your pick. You made the pick for the other team.

[DCasey91]

When you draft a guy for another team like Gobert, that's not your pick. You made the pick for the other team.

Talent evaluation is though is it not? Same deal with Mitchell what comes after is what comes after.

But making the pick? Nuggets selected him.

Sixers drafted Bridges and trading him and so forth.

You still have to evaluate the talent.

Nuggets do pretty great at drafting on the backend in the past decade.

[DWhiteMamba]

You can call a team bad at trading for not realising the talent that might be available at the pick, but not bad at drafting. It wasn't their pick, they agreed to trade the pick before Gobert was selected, then the Jazz called them and said "ok, our pick is Gobert". It doesn't count to Denver's draft ledger at all.

[Jamaaliver]

Talent evaluation is though is it not? Same deal with Mitchell what comes after is what comes after.

But making the pick? Nuggets selected him.

Sixers drafted Bridges and trading him and so forth.

You still have to evaluate the talent.

Nuggets do pretty great at drafting on the backend in the past decade.

Wait…so teams get credit for drafting players that never play for them?

So the Hawks get credit for Luka?

[DCasey91]

Retract the statement then, learn something everyday lol.

So I’m guessing the Mavs said to the Hawks we want you to select Luka on behalf just to clarify it?

Makes sense.

[NO-KG-AI]

Retract the statement then, learn something everyday lol.

So I’m guessing the Mavs said to the Hawks we want you to select Luka on behalf just to clarify it?

Makes sense.

Yea I think that’s the case 99% of the time with draft trades. Doesn’t mean the drafting team didn’t like the prospect if they move them, but they’re almost always picking with the idea of “hey, take my guy, and this is what I trade for him”

[clyde21]

When you draft a guy for another team like Gobert, that's not your pick. You made the pick for the other team.

Talent evaluation is though is it not? Same deal with Mitchell what comes after is what comes after.

But making the pick? Nuggets selected him.

Sixers drafted Bridges and trading him and so forth.

You still have to evaluate the talent.

Nuggets do pretty great at drafting on the backend in the past decade.

that's not how it works, the other team tells you who to draft if they are owed your pick.

[DCasey91]

When you draft a guy for another team like Gobert, that's not your pick. You made the pick for the other team.

Talent evaluation is though is it not? Same deal with Mitchell what comes after is what comes after.

But making the pick? Nuggets selected him.

Sixers drafted Bridges and trading him and so forth.

You still have to evaluate the talent.

Nuggets do pretty great at drafting on the backend in the past decade.

that's not how it works, the other team tells you who to draft if they are owed your pick.

Thanks got it. Still think Nuggets are among the best